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FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system


masster

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I was really hoping for a win over Honduras more for the ranking points than anything else.  I wasn't too worried about advancement with 4 points in the bag.  It's our last chance before 2022 WCQ seeding to get a points boost from the continental multiplier.

However, If Victor follows through with his pledge to expand the final round of World Cup qualifying then it may be less of an issue than it's been in the past.  

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9 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

ELO, to make it easier, is a pillow to a teenager. FIFA rankings are your wife. 

 

How about ELO is a mistress and FIFA rankings a wife...


(they say that about Sydney and Melbourne, respectively)

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37 minutes ago, mikey_s_ said:

Below is how are ranking points should look after the Jamaica game:

Loss: 352 

Loss in penalty's: 381

Win: 438 (this gets averaged down with the next game)

But wouldn't a win in penalties be different than in regulation.  If we win in penalties, we'd be at 381, which could get averaged down after the semis.  No?

 

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10 minutes ago, Addona said:

But wouldn't a win in penalties be different than in regulation.  If we win in penalties, we'd be at 381, which could get averaged down after the semis.  No?

 

Weirdly enough a win on penalties is worth exactly double a loss on penalties. The points are calculated as 3 points per win, 1 per draw (or penalty shootout loss), 0 per loss, and 2 per penalty shootout win. Then 0, 1, 2, or 3 is multiplied by some other coefficients.

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/rawrank/ip-590_10e_wrpointcalculation_8771.pdf

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A bit disappointing that the ranking tool doesn't let you see what would happen in the case of winning on penalties.

Based on what jonovision was posting I think we would be at about 409 or so with a penalty win?

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1 hour ago, jonovision said:

Weirdly enough a win on penalties is worth exactly double a loss on penalties. The points are calculated as 3 points per win, 1 per draw (or penalty shootout loss), 0 per loss, and 2 per penalty shootout win. Then 0, 1, 2, or 3 is multiplied by some other coefficients.

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/rawrank/ip-590_10e_wrpointcalculation_8771.pdf

Really?!?  I always thought that matches that went to penalties were viewed as draws as far as ranking points, regardless of whether you won or lost the penalty shootout.  I guess you learn something new every day ...

 

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4 hours ago, Addona said:

But wouldn't a win in penalties be different than in regulation.  If we win in penalties, we'd be at 381, which could get averaged down after the semis.  No?

 

True forgot to put that scenario. A win on penalties would put us at 410.

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22 minutes ago, mpg_29 said:

btw..how did Curacao get to 68th ranking?...

By beating the following giants of soccer in Caribbean Cup qualifying plus the Caribbean Cup itself.

Dominican Republic, Guyana, US Virgin Islands, Antigua and Barbuda, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica.

While only losing to unbeatable foes Barbados.

Edited by Kent
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8 minutes ago, Kent said:

By beating the following giants of soccer in Caribbean Cup qualifying plus the Caribbean Cup itself.

Dominican Republic, Guyana, US Virgin Islands, Antigua and Barbuda, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica.

While only losing to unbeatable foes Barbados.

they are going to drop down after the results in gold cup though..

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2 minutes ago, Blackjack15 said:

Now that We've qualified to the quarterfinals, how much would they advance in the FIFA Rankings? Considering they are placed 100! 

If we lose to Jamaica we will end up in the low to mid 90's.  If we win, it will keep going up.  If we won the whole thing we would be somewhere in the high 60's when I ran a best case scenario.  Like beating Jamaica, Mexico and Costa Rica would give us a huge number of points.

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4 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

If we lose to Jamaica we will end up in the low to mid 90's.  If we win, it will keep going up.  If we won the whole thing we would be somewhere in the high 60's when I ran a best case scenario.  Like beating Jamaica, Mexico and THE USA would give us a huge number of points.

Isn't that what you meant ;)

 

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3 hours ago, Blackdude said:

Actually beating Costa Rica is worth more.

True, but what I was thinking was that the sequence Costa Rica> Jamaica> Mexico should end with the USA. Meaning we play those teams in that sequence, beating Jamaica and Mexico, and get to the final vs. the USA, and win it. 

Unless you are arguing that if we meet CR in the final it will get us even more points with current rankings, which would be true.

 

Edited by Unnamed Trialist
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7 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Unless you are arguing that if we meet CR in the final it will get us even more points with current rankings, which would be true.

This is what he's saying. From here on out the best case in terms of FIFA ranking points is to beat Jamaica in the QF, Mexico in the SF, and Costa Rica in the final.

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An even more disgusting thing about these Gold Cups. The US is not counted as home team, it is considered neutral ground. 

If this were played in different countries every version, the US would probably, on average, miss a round every two editions and have less pts coming out of each group stage. Their ranking would drop and they'd be in harder semi groups to qualify for the WC. 

And rival teams, facing them in GC with them playing at home, fucking always, would also get better results and the spread would narrow.

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OK, so with the loss to Jamaica last night, things don't look good. According to the prognosis tool on the FIFA website, we won't pass any CONCACAF teams this month, and in fact El Salvador will move into a tie with us. We move from 331 to 352 points, and El Salvador will move from 319 to 352.

So this Gold Cup that has gotten a lot of us all giddy, actually hurts our ranking within the confederation, which really is what matters for the World Cup qualifying draw.

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