FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Kent]

We are ranked 80th in the world and 8th in CONCACAF in the new rankings out today. With this latest ranking we surpassed Trinidad and Tobago, El Salvador, and Haiti.

If our ranking stays as is until the time that they will use the rankings for 2022 World Cup Qualifying, and if the same format is used, that would mean we would be in the 2nd bucket of teams, getting a bye to the 3rd round. Top 6 last time around got a bye to the 4th round, 7th and 8th a bye to the 3rd round, 9th (which was us) to 21st started in the 2nd round. Last time around they used the rankings from August 2014, so we have about 4 months to hopefully hold on or improve this spot. Curacao are 9 spots ahead of us. El Salvador is 5 spots behind us, and T&T is 12 spots behind us.

I believe this is our highest ranking since 2012.

[Jith12]

Funny how a hopeful Jakovic long ball can vault you up 10 spots and into the CONCACAF top 8.

[Bison44]

Maybe this is more from some bad results from years ago coming off the books?

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Bison44 said:

Maybe this is more from some bad results from years ago coming off the books?

The draw with Scotland dropped from the current year down to year 2. The 2 qualifying losses to Mexico dropped from year 2 to year 3. Friendly wins against Puerto Rico and Guatemala dropped from year 3 down to year 4. Nothing dropped out of the picture from year 4.

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Jith12 said:

Funny how a hopeful Jakovic long ball can vault you up 10 spots and into the CONCACAF top 8.

A winning goal has to be scored somehow and that is as good a way as any.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Kent said:

The draw with Scotland dropped from the current year down to year 2. The 2 qualifying losses to Mexico dropped from year 2 to year 3. Friendly wins against Puerto Rico and Guatemala dropped from year 3 down to year 4. Nothing dropped out of the picture from year 4.

Jamaica ahead of both Hondurass and Panama. With all due respect to the Boyz, that just ain't right!

[CanadianSoccerFan]

2 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

Jamaica ahead of both Hondurass and Panama. With all due respect to the Boyz, that just ain't right!

That gold cup run was a huge boost 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

That gold cup run was a huge boost 

Too bad they didn't win or they'd be ahead of the US and Mexico too!

[Zem]

8 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

Jamaica ahead of both Hondurass and Panama. With all due respect to the Boyz, that just ain't right!

You aren't giving any of the respect due to them, they've made the last two Gold Cup finals, beating the US or Mexico in the semis both times; their rank is fully deserved.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Zem said:

You aren't giving any of the respect due to them, they've made the last two Gold Cup finals, beating the US or Mexico in the semis both times; their rank is fully deserved.

But failed to make the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying -- unlike Hondurass, who qualified, and Panama, who are in Russia!! (both more important than any Gold Cup run, particularly one that doesn't end with winning it).

Edited April 12, 2018 by dsqpr

[CanadianSoccerFan]

28 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

But failed to make the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying -- unlike Hondurass, who qualified, and Panama, who are in Russia!! (both more important than any Gold Cup run, particularly one that doesn't end with winning it).

And were minutes from elimination by Nicaragua in the earlier round 

[Shway]

8 hours ago, Kent said:

We are ranked 80th in the world and 8th in CONCACAF in the new rankings out today. 

I believe this is our highest ranking since 2012.

Thank you Octavio Zambrano 

[Blackdude]

Just now, Jahinho Guerro said:

Thank you CSA for not playing a lot of friendlies

Fixed your post. 

[Shway]

Just now, Blackdude said:

Fixed your post. 

Listen Blackdude, dont be fixing my posts. 

 

But seriously, @Kent you had the math all right, with the gaming the system shit. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

And were minutes from elimination by Nicaragua in the earlier round 

I don't think scores at 88 mins count in the rankings though (even for FIFA)!

Edited April 13, 2018 by dsqpr

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Curacao up 11 spots to 71 although this time it's harder to diss them for racking up wins in the Caribbean Cup.  They won away against Qatar then got a draw and a win against Bolivia.  Patrick Van Aarnholt accepted a call-up last fall.  Will be interesting to see if they can convince even more of their dutch diaspora to make the switch.  

[Guest]

So apparently the rankings are getting adjusted where friendlies are goig to be weighted less and knockout games more, with the losing team in knockout game not getting penalized. 

[Zem]

22 minutes ago, canta15 said:

So apparently the rankings are getting adjusted where friendlies are goig to be weighted less and knockout games more, with the losing team in knockout game not getting penalized. 

It's more than an adjustment, they're replacing the current ranking system with a modified Elo system like in the Women's rankings. So the rankings will be much simpler with no averages updated monthly, just points being added/subtracted after each match. Nations' ranking points will be transferred as-is from the current system into the new one.

https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/revision-of-the-fifa-coca-cola-world-ranking.pdf?cloudid=jgxjkdrj1jfwyunjbkha

Notably, there will also be different weights for friendlies played inside and outside international windows. Nations League group stages will be the lowest weighted competitions, but Nations League play-offs will be weighted the same as continental qualifiers and World Cup qualifiers.

[Dub Narcotic]

Great change.

[Boominbooty]

So I was looking at the FIFA World Ranking tool. Next month Canada is forecast to drop from 411 to 315 points!!! That is a huge drop and will move us to around 105 from 79.

Anyone know what is going on there? The wait out the summer with no friendlies strategy isn't going to help much it seems.

[Guest Tg11]

Canada can beat the system or at least game the system by playing more friendlies from now until the time the 2022 qualifiers begin. However, in doing that you not only boost your FIFA World ranking but at the same time also getting favorable results in qualifiers or even in the Gold Cup competition you boost rankings and game the system that way.

[Kent]

7 hours ago, Tg11 said:

Canada can beat the system or at least game the system by playing more friendlies from now until the time the 2022 qualifiers begin. However, in doing that you not only boost your FIFA World ranking but at the same time also getting favorable results in qualifiers or even in the Gold Cup competition you boost rankings and game the system that way.

I think usually the rankings used for the qualifying draw come from soon after (immediately after?) the World Cup. So probably the points drop you saw is going to be what is used.

[Guest Tg11]

12 hours ago, Kent said:

I think usually the rankings used for the qualifying draw come from soon after (immediately after?) the World Cup. So probably the points drop you saw is going to be what is used.

 

I guess I see your point but then again certain countries have "gamed the system" by not only playing a lot of friendlies but playing competitive fixtures and they got much more higher in the rankings case in point Poland because they did that and look at how highly ranked they were in seeding for Russia? If Canada were to do that then their FIFA World ranking would be higher

[Kent]

On 6/14/2018 at 2:27 PM, Boominbooty said:

So I was looking at the FIFA World Ranking tool. Next month Canada is forecast to drop from 411 to 315 points!!! That is a huge drop and will move us to around 105 from 79.

Anyone know what is going on there? The wait out the summer with no friendlies strategy isn't going to help much it seems.

I just looked into this a bit more. I used the tool to calculate next months scores for the other CONCACAF teams. Currently we are ranked 8th in CONCACAF. Next month El Salvador will actually take an even bigger drop and fall below us, but Trinidad & Tobago, Curacao, and Haiti will all leap frog us. So we will move from 8th in CONCACAF to 10th in CONCACAF. We don't know what the qualifying format will be like for 2022 but if it happened to be the same as 2018 we would be in the same pot (9th through 21st) as 2018 qualifying. The pots then were 1st-6th, 7th-8th, 9th-21st, and 22nd-35th.

[nfitz]

16 minutes ago, Kent said:

I just looked into this a bit more. I used the tool to calculate next months scores for the other CONCACAF teams. Currently we are ranked 8th in CONCACAF. Next month El Salvador will actually take an even bigger drop and fall below us, but Trinidad & Tobago, Curacao, and Haiti will all leap frog us. So we will move from 8th in CONCACAF to 10th in CONCACAF. We don't know what the qualifying format will be like for 2022 but if it happened to be the same as 2018 we would be in the same pot (9th through 21st) as 2018 qualifying. The pots then were 1st-6th, 7th-8th, 9th-21st, and 22nd-35th.

As pointed out above in the June 10th post, the current ranking system is completely changing. The ranking tool is currently meaningless, and our current rank will likely be little changed, with us playing no matches. Our points wouldn't change.

See: 

• https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveprice/2018/06/11/how-fifas-new-ranking-system-will-change-international-soccer/2/#14652df566be 
   
• https://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/news/y=2018/m=6/news=2026-fifa-world-cuptm-fifa-council-designates-bids-for-final-voting-by-the-fifa-.html
   
• https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/revision-of-the-fifa-coca-cola-world-ranking.pdf?cloudid=fzltr4s8tz3v3vy0aqo1