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6 minutes ago, SkuseisLoose said:

I know it probably makes more sense to try games out in Cpl markets but my selfish part of me really wants a game in vancouver even if it is against dominica just because I generally do enjoy watching Canada play no matter how shit we are sometimes.

Well, I would be surprised if there is a game out there any time soon. 

It would only be by way of circumstances forcing it to happen.  It doubt it would be by choice. 

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4 minutes ago, SkuseisLoose said:

why do you say that? 

Torpedoing the Canadian world cup bid the day of or day before they put in the official bid was totally classless. 

Whatever you think of FIFA, they hosted the Women's World Cup final only a few years before and sold their soul to the Olympics FFS.  The Olympics make FIFA look like school yard bullies in comparison.

 

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5 minutes ago, admin said:

Torpedoing the Canadian world cup bid the day of or day before they put in the official bid was totally classless. 

Whatever you think of FIFA, they hosted the Women's World Cup final only a few years before and sold their soul to the Olympics FFS.  The Olympics make FIFA look like school yard bullies in comparison.

 

I know it looks bad but really asking us to sign a blank cheque really isn't fair. While I wanted to see a world cup game in my city more than anything I completely understand why the ndp government wouldn't want to take that financial risk so soon into their tenure of having the premier for the province. 

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3 hours ago, admin said:

Torpedoing the Canadian world cup bid the day of or day before they put in the official bid was totally classless. 

Did that torpedo our bid though? I thought FIFA made the final selection on host cities anyway, and that even without BC Place we have enough viable venues (at least two) to host our 10 matches. I do get that BC Place would have been the best of the bunch though.

Kinda surprised that the CSA would hold a grudge against BC for not wanting to sell their integrity to FIFA TBH. Of course I do not know what went on behind the scenes and that is likely the key.

Edited by dsqpr
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3 hours ago, admin said:

The Olympics make FIFA look like school yard bullies in comparison.

I'm not sure if this is good or bad!

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19 hours ago, SkuseisLoose said:

I know it looks bad but really asking us to sign a blank cheque really isn't fair. While I wanted to see a world cup game in my city more than anything I completely understand why the ndp government wouldn't want to take that financial risk so soon into their tenure of having the premier for the province. 

At this stage, nothing was being signed though.  It's 3 more years before cities are selected, giving you more time to figure out costs.  And you can pull out at any time along the way.  It's the biggest misconception that the NDP managed to get out there, and so much of the media here bit on it.

I don't think the withdrawal torpedoed the bid.  But why would the CSA bring games back here right now?  They'll be busy trying to develop new markets in the lead up to the CPL and will look to keep promoting the World Cup bid with games in the cities actually still involved.  So at least for now, I wouldn't anticipate any games coming to Vancouver.

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I was just thinking about this but what do you guys think the ticket prices should be for the two games at home? I'm guessing dominica will have a maximum ticket price of about 30-40 bucks for non box suites (if the stadium even has that). French Guyana probably a bit more maybe a max of 50$ but that's probably to high.  

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On 4/27/2018 at 1:30 PM, SkuseisLoose said:

I know it looks bad but really asking us to sign a blank cheque really isn't fair. While I wanted to see a world cup game in my city more than anything I completely understand why the ndp government wouldn't want to take that financial risk so soon into their tenure of having the premier for the province. 

There was no "blank cheque". That was spin by the government to get them out of the fact they blew it. Like other people here have pointed out, they could have pulled out later on if their conditions weren't satisfied. For the most part, their asks were no different than those of other major international events - like the Olympics, FIFA Women's World Cup, etc. - which have been hosted successfully in Vancouver.

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Actually it's a stretch to call it "spin" on the first point.  7.2 in the host city agreement does amount to a blank cheque:  if signed, FIFA would reserve the right to make unilateral modifications to the agreement with the host bearing all costs of those modifications. 

As for whether equivalent articles existed in host agreements for previous tournaments hosted by Vancouver I can't say.  Maybe they did, and if they did, maybe those articles were invoked, or maybe not -- unlikely we would ever fully discover the truth.   Every government has the right to decide whether they want to take on the level of risk or not, and they will live with the consequences of their choice for good or ill.  

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11 hours ago, SkuseisLoose said:

I was just thinking about this but what do you guys think the ticket prices should be for the two games at home? I'm guessing dominica will have a maximum ticket price of about 30-40 bucks for non box suites (if the stadium even has that). French Guyana probably a bit more maybe a max of 50$ but that's probably to high.  

All I know tickets better be dumb cheap, where ever it is. I expect atleast 80% full stadiums. 

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11 hours ago, SkuseisLoose said:

I was just thinking about this but what do you guys think the ticket prices should be for the two games at home? I'm guessing dominica will have a maximum ticket price of about 30-40 bucks for non box suites (if the stadium even has that). French Guyana probably a bit more maybe a max of 50$ but that's probably to high.  

The CSA does seem to be getting better at pricing tickets.

My opinion is that there should be three categories, A-C:

A international: $40-$80

B international: $30-$60

C international: $20-40

The two CNL qualifiers are clearly both C internationals so $20-$40.

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1 hour ago, shorty said:

Actually it's a stretch to call it "spin" on the first point.  7.2 in the host city agreement does amount to a blank cheque:  if signed, FIFA would reserve the right to make unilateral modifications to the agreement with the host bearing all costs of those modifications. 

As for whether equivalent articles existed in host agreements for previous tournaments hosted by Vancouver I can't say.  Maybe they did, and if they did, maybe those articles were invoked, or maybe not -- unlikely we would ever fully discover the truth.   Every government has the right to decide whether they want to take on the level of risk or not, and they will live with the consequences of their choice for good or ill.  

I believe it was John Furlong (who was the President/CEO of the Vancouver Olympic committee) who said they essentially signed the same thing.  He (as well as the CEO of the Vancouver Rugby Sevens tournament) has also said the strategy is you win the bid and then negotiate further terms afterwards.  That VANOC agreed to a number of things they then had removed.

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FIFA are a registered charity! They are supposed to be a non-profit organization yet the World Cup makes BILLIONS (apparently 2.6 billion for 2014: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/fifa-brazil-world-cup-revenue-2015-3). Why do they need a clause that the host has to eat unforseen costs that FIFA could very easily absorb? (That is a rhetorical question btw, we all know it is what it is, and it is very grubby.)

From the article linked above:

FIFA made $2.4 billion in TV rights fees, $1.6 billion in sponsorships, and $527 million in ticket sales.

Much of FIFA's World Cup spending went to participating teams and confederations ($476 million) and TV production costs ($370 million). FIFA contributed $453 million to the local organizing committee between 2011 and 2014, and gave Brazil a $100 million "legacy" payment after the tournament.

However, FIFA didn't contribute to the real costs of staging the tournament - stadiums and transportation infrastructure.

The tournament cost an estimated $15 billion, a significant portion of which was public money. Brazil spent $3.6 billion building and renovating 12 stadiums for the tournament. Less than a year later, some of those are turning into white elephants. The $300 million Arena Amazonia in Manaus, for example, held just 11 events in the five months after the tournament.

Edited by dsqpr
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I went through and predicted each qualifying fixture to the best of my CONCACAF knowledge. Some teams dont play often enough (i.e. Turks and Caicos, Bonaire, etc.) to make well-advised predictions and some games are just too close to call with any confidence (e.g., Guadeloupe-Martinique or El Salvador-Jamaica, both of which I predict as draws). Hence, I wouldnt be surprised by a 2 or 3 point swing for some of these. I didnt bother predicting specific scorelines or goal differences.

See https://imgur.com/djnbh1M for a more colourful presentation.

Team Pld W D L Pts Qualification
 Canada 4 4 0 0 12 League A + Gold Cup
 Curaçao 4 4 0 0 12
 Jamaica 4 3 1 0 10
 El Salvador 4 3 1 0 10
 Martinique 4 3 1 0 10
 Haiti 4 3 1 0 10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Nicaragua 4 3 1 0 10 League B + Gold Cup
 Belize 4 3 1 0 10
 Cuba 4 3 0 1 9
 French Guiana 4 3 0 1 9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Suriname 4 3 0 1 9 League B
 Dominican Republic 4 3 0 1 9
 Guadeloupe 4 2 1 1 7
 Guyana 4 2 1 1 7
 Antigua & Barbuda 4 2 0 2 6
 St Vincent & the Grenadines 4 2 0 2 6
 Dominica 4 2 0 2 6
 Saint Kitts & Nevis 4 1 1 2 4
 Bermuda 4 1 1 2 4
 Saint Lucia 4 1 1 2 4
 Aruba 4 1 1 2 4
 Cayman Islands 4 1 1 2 4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Puerto Rico 4 1 1 2 4 League C
 Grenada 4 1 0 3 3
 Barbados 4 1 0 3 3
 Bahamas 4 1 0 3 3
 Sint Maarten 4 1 0 3 3
 Bonaire 4 1 0 3 3
 British Virgin Islands 4 0 1 3 1
 Turks & Caicos Islands 4 0 1 3 1
 U.S. Virgin Islands 4 0 1 3 1
 Anguilla 4 0 1 3 1
 Montserrat 4 0 0 4 0
 Saint Martin 4 0 0 4 0

 

Big Takeaways

1. I dont think its possible to fail to qualify for the gold cup with 10 points (I might be wrong in some very extreme case) but it's definitely possible with 9 if your goal difference is low enough. So, If we somehow lose to French Guiana then we're probably out of League A and risk not qualifying for the gold cup.

2. Two teams (Guadeloupe and St Kitts), who are expected to qualify for the gold cup based on CONCACAF ranking, are predicted to fall short of qualifying due to less favourable schedules. I expect Curacao and Belize to replace them.

3. Goal difference matters, a lot

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