I went through and predicted each qualifying fixture to the best of my CONCACAF knowledge. Some teams dont play often enough (i.e. Turks and Caicos, Bonaire, etc.) to make well-advised predictions and some games are just too close to call with any confidence (e.g., Guadeloupe-Martinique or El Salvador-Jamaica, both of which I predict as draws). Hence, I wouldnt be surprised by a 2 or 3 point swing for some of these. I didnt bother predicting specific scorelines or goal differences.
See https://imgur.com/djnbh1M for a more colourful presentation.
Team
Pld
W
D
L
Pts
Qualification
Canada
4
4
0
0
12
League A + Gold Cup
Curaçao
4
4
0
0
12
Jamaica
4
3
1
0
10
El Salvador
4
3
1
0
10
Martinique
4
3
1
0
10
Haiti
4
3
1
0
10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nicaragua
4
3
1
0
10
League B + Gold Cup
Belize
4
3
1
0
10
Cuba
4
3
0
1
9
French Guiana
4
3
0
1
9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Suriname
4
3
0
1
9
League B
Dominican Republic
4
3
0
1
9
Guadeloupe
4
2
1
1
7
Guyana
4
2
1
1
7
Antigua & Barbuda
4
2
0
2
6
St Vincent & the Grenadines
4
2
0
2
6
Dominica
4
2
0
2
6
Saint Kitts & Nevis
4
1
1
2
4
Bermuda
4
1
1
2
4
Saint Lucia
4
1
1
2
4
Aruba
4
1
1
2
4
Cayman Islands
4
1
1
2
4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Puerto Rico
4
1
1
2
4
League C
Grenada
4
1
0
3
3
Barbados
4
1
0
3
3
Bahamas
4
1
0
3
3
Sint Maarten
4
1
0
3
3
Bonaire
4
1
0
3
3
British Virgin Islands
4
0
1
3
1
Turks & Caicos Islands
4
0
1
3
1
U.S. Virgin Islands
4
0
1
3
1
Anguilla
4
0
1
3
1
Montserrat
4
0
0
4
0
Saint Martin
4
0
0
4
0
Big Takeaways
1. I dont think its possible to fail to qualify for the gold cup with 10 points (I might be wrong in some very extreme case) but it's definitely possible with 9 if your goal difference is low enough. So, If we somehow lose to French Guiana then we're probably out of League A and risk not qualifying for the gold cup.
2. Two teams (Guadeloupe and St Kitts), who are expected to qualify for the gold cup based on CONCACAF ranking, are predicted to fall short of qualifying due to less favourable schedules. I expect Curacao and Belize to replace them.
3. Goal difference matters, a lot
