Steven Vitória

[Mattd97]

Too soon

[BrennanFan]

There is a middle ground.  No player should feel forced if they're not feeling it, so the players should have some control.  Coaches should be firm that there is only a shortlist, 2-3 players who choose amongst themselves who takes the kick.

If I'm being honest, Phonzie doesn't get on my list.  

[Bigandy]

2 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

There is a middle ground.  No player should feel forced if they're not feeling it, so the players should have some control.  Coaches should be firm that there is only a shortlist, 2-3 players who choose amongst themselves who takes the kick.

If I'm being honest, Phonzie doesn't get on my list.  

What is your order?

Mine is 
1. David
2. Vitoria
3. Larin 
4. Davies 

[SthMelbRed]

2 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

What is your order?

Mine is 
1. David
2. Vitoria
3. Larin 
4. Davies 

Surely Junior has to be on the list.

[Bigandy]

6 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

Surely Junior has to be on the list.

Why? Hes 5/9 total.

Hes 0/1 in the prem
Hes 1/3 in the championship
Hes 1/1 in premier league reserves (does this even count)
Hes 3/4 for canada - His 3 for canada were in a 7:0 win, 6:0 win and 4:1 win

Hes only ever scored 1 meaningful penalty. 

[BrennanFan]

3 hours ago, Bigandy said:

Why? Hes 5/9 total.

Hes 0/1 in the prem
Hes 1/3 in the championship
Hes 1/1 in premier league reserves (does this even count)
Hes 3/4 for canada - His 3 for canada were in a 7:0 win, 6:0 win and 4:1 win

Hes only ever scored 1 meaningful penalty. 

That shows at least he has experience as a pro club level penalty taker.

Davies has NEVER taken a penalty for any club at the professional level.  Let that sink in.  

Davies scored 2 for Canada going into the WC, both against minnows.  In a direct comparison Junior is the obvious choice.  

[Obinna]

Herdman should have subbed Cavallini on for the panenka.

[Shway]

1 hour ago, BrennanFan said:

That shows at least he has experience as a pro club level penalty taker.

Davies has NEVER taken a penalty for any club at the professional level.  Let that sink in.  

Davies scored 2 for Canada going into the WC, both against minnows.  In a direct comparison Junior is the obvious choice.  

Career goals scored is another factor for me. Hoilett has a lot of worldies off that right foot….where the same can’t be said about Davies yet. 

[Bigandy]

14 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

That shows at least he has experience as a pro club level penalty taker.

Davies has NEVER taken a penalty for any club at the professional level.  Let that sink in.  

Davies scored 2 for Canada going into the WC, both against minnows.  In a direct comparison Junior is the obvious choice.  

I don't think the question was Davies vs junior. The question was who should take the penalties for canada. To say that Jr "surely" has to be on the list implies some stat that proves Jr's quality as a pk taker. My point is that the stats do not indicate Jr is a locked on PK taker. 

Saying davies shouldnt take penalties is a fair statement that i agree with. But that doesnt mean Jr. is next in line. 

However even in direct comparison, the obvious choice is not Jr. I love hoilett but hes bad at penalties. the stats are pretty clear on that. Against belguim, which is the most pressure any of these guys have ever faced, would you rather a player who has experience winning the champions league who at the time is 2/2 with penalties (and is the face of our squad) or a championship player who has a 25% success rate in club games and 75% success rate against minnows. I cant understand how someone can look at this paragraph and say that one option is obviously 100% the clear choice.

Basically hoilett has an entire career for us to judge and the results are that hes bad at penalties. Davies has an incredibly small sample size so his ability is relatively unknown.  

[InglewoodJack]

PKs are incredibly vibes-based situations. It was 6 minutes into a World Cup game against the second best team in the world, with arguably the best goal keeper in the world, in a game that we already looked like the more dominant side, and you have the greatest player in your country's history on the pitch in a position to make history. You don't pause things and go, hmmm, wait, statistically, steven vitoria is the stronger choice, let's go him. No, you go with the superstar whose energy levels are at a billion percent who looks like he would run through a concrete wall to score a goal. Things also happen incredibly fast, does Herdman really want to get into his players' heads 6 minutes into the tournament and boss them around with who can take the PK (I know a manager's job is explicitly to boss their players, but sometimes when they're playing well, you let them vibe)?

Aside from David, do we have any player who are as close to a guaranteed goal against Madrid's starting keeper? Because Hoilett knocks then in in the championship, Larin knocked them in in Turkey, Vitoria in Portugal, etc. Yes, you can point to the fact that Davies scores no goals against that kind of opposition, because it isn't his role at his club, but you can also dig up several youtube pages worth of highlight reel moments from him, and in a moment where any given player has about a 7/10 chance of scoring the biggest goal in their nation's history, you go with the guy who is a highlight reel- the emotional pick over the rational one. If any other player missed the shot, which they very well could've, it would've been "canada waited 36 years for a world cup, then they put an ancient fullback from a mid table portuguese club to seize glory? you got a guy from freakin reading fc to bring glory to canada at the WC??

I would've went with David for similar reasons, and I'm not opposed to the arguments being made here, but I think that when you're in the heat of the moment, all the statistical analysis cedes ground to the energy and heat of the moment. I think if that game is replayed 100 times, Davies makes that shot at least 90 times. It didn't go in, and it looked awful, had awful consequences, but that's what you need to do at those moments.

I've mentioned it in here before, but Borjan took the PK that won Red Star the league last year. Definitely isn't #1 on their PK depth chart, if I had to guess.

Edited January 17, 2023 by InglewoodJack

[Kadenge]

How many of us were pumped when Davies stepped up to take that PK? I bet very very few. Scoring a goal vs making history should have been the driver. I get that the player who was confident at that moment should have taken the PK but doing so at a WC with no experience at club level is still very odd.

[Bigandy]

Penalty success rates: 
Ugbo 6/6
Hutch 2/2
Millar 2/2 - both youth games
Borjan 1/1
Vitoria 15/17
David 9/12
Cav 8/12
Davies 2/3
Hoilett 5/9
Larin is 2/5
Oso 0/1
spoony 0/1
kaye 0/1

Based on the stats, I think David is #1, Vitoria is #2 and Ugbo is #3. I weigh success of higher pressure penalties higher and also think larger sample sizes are important. 

Cav #4 
Davies/hoilett/larin fight for 5,6,7 but I would order them how i have them listed. 

Realistically we may not have vitoria, ugbo, cav starting much for us. So after David, we have a significant drop off of quality PK takers. 

[InglewoodJack]

1 hour ago, Kadenge said:

How many of us were pumped when Davies stepped up to take that PK? I bet very very few. Scoring a goal vs making history should have been the driver. I get that the player who was confident at that moment should have taken the PK but doing so at a WC with no experience at club level is still very odd.

Do you think this is realistically something players playing in their very first World Cup game ever are thinking of in the moment though? I was disappointed when he walked up to the spot, but the whole decision making for a PK takes place in the matter of about 30 seconds, as the entire world is watching down on you.

Edited January 17, 2023 by InglewoodJack

[Kadenge]

2 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

Do you think this is realistically something players playing in their very first World Cup game ever are thinking of in the moment though? I was disappointed when he walked up to the spot, but the whole decision making for a PK takes place in the matter of about 30 seconds, as the entire world is watching down on you.

Obviously I can't answer that question, but have to think that some discussion on PKs btw players/coaches happens in practices/preparation for games. Not saying that a priority list is decided but I'm sure the team is aware that a player from a small group will pick up the ball. To me a veteran like Vitoria or Hutch should have stepped up to take it. Although Davies grabbed the ball, his body language didn't look confident..the eyes usually tell a lot...just saying

 

[InglewoodJack]

4 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

Obviously I can't answer that question, but have to think that some discussion on PKs btw players/coaches happens in practices/preparation for games. Not saying that a priority list is decided but I'm sure the team is aware that a player from a small group will pick up the ball. To me a veteran like Vitoria or Hutch should have stepped up to take it. Although Davies grabbed the ball, his body language didn't look confident..the eyes usually tell a lot...just saying

 

Once the ball is in Davies hands, are any of the guys going to go up to him and basically tell him he's not good enough for the PK, and someone else needs it? That could seriously throw him off his game for the rest of the match, and ultimately, I think the fact that he missed it, especially so poorly was a very rare potential outcome.

[footballfreak]

On 1/15/2023 at 4:47 PM, trc2014 said:

The logic with the “players decide” strategy is you want someone who is feeling it and wants to step up and take the shot.  Not saying I agree with it, but that’s what it is.

Sounds like a perfect recipe for Dunning-Kruger to take the wheel.

[Kent]

10 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

Do you think this is realistically something players playing in their very first World Cup game ever are thinking of in the moment though? I was disappointed when he walked up to the spot, but the whole decision making for a PK takes place in the matter of about 30 seconds, as the entire world is watching down on you.

 

6 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

Once the ball is in Davies hands, are any of the guys going to go up to him and basically tell him he's not good enough for the PK, and someone else needs it? That could seriously throw him off his game for the rest of the match, and ultimately, I think the fact that he missed it, especially so poorly was a very rare potential outcome.

This is exactly why I am so against the "let the players decide in the moment" philosophy. When I was a teenager the guys on our team knew, if we get a penalty, player A takes it. If he's not on the field or says he's not feeling it in that moment, player B takes it. We knew probably 4 or 5 players deep. It didn't matter if the guy 4th in line was the loudest voice, for him to take it the first 3 guys would either have to not be on the field or say they don't have the nerves for it in that moment. It's quick, efficient, and not frought with potential drama, in fighting, or hurt egos.

[InglewoodJack]

11 hours ago, Kent said:

 

This is exactly why I am so against the "let the players decide in the moment" philosophy. When I was a teenager the guys on our team knew, if we get a penalty, player A takes it. If he's not on the field or says he's not feeling it in that moment, player B takes it. We knew probably 4 or 5 players deep. It didn't matter if the guy 4th in line was the loudest voice, for him to take it the first 3 guys would either have to not be on the field or say they don't have the nerves for it in that moment. It's quick, efficient, and not frought with potential drama, in fighting, or hurt egos.

I get that mentality and it makes sense, but what do you do when that #3 guy has the ball in his hands with 90,000 people in the stands and probably 10 million watching at home. Snatch it out of his hands? Tell him to fuck off? I don't want to accuse AD of having an inflated ego- I think all superstars need a big ego to reach the levels they do- but pulling rank on your best player in a world cup game would have a lot more negative consequences than letting AD take a PK that he had an extremely high chance to convert on.

 

At the end of the day, it's a penalty kick he was capable of, and should've converted on- it's not like he was completely out of his depth, he flubbed a gimme. It's the same as if he was on a breakaway and sent it over the crossbar, or if Borjan tripped on his shoelaces and let a slow roller past him. These are plays that our players should successfully execute nearly every single time, but sometimes you just mess up.

 

[Obinna]

25 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

At the end of the day, it's a penalty kick he was capable of, and should've converted on- it's not like he was completely out of his depth, he flubbed a gimme. It's the same as if he was on a breakaway and sent it over the crossbar, or if Borjan passed the ball right to the other team, who then chipped him into an empty net. These are plays that our players should successfully execute nearly every single time, but sometimes you just mess up.

FYP

[Bigandy]

27 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

I get that mentality and it makes sense, but what do you do when that #3 guy has the ball in his hands with 90,000 people in the stands and probably 10 million watching at home. Snatch it out of his hands? Tell him to fuck off? I don't want to accuse AD of having an inflated ego- I think all superstars need a big ego to reach the levels they do- but pulling rank on your best player in a world cup game would have a lot more negative consequences than letting AD take a PK that he had an extremely high chance to convert on.

 

At the end of the day, it's a penalty kick he was capable of, and should've converted on- it's not like he was completely out of his depth, he flubbed a gimme. It's the same as if he was on a breakaway and sent it over the crossbar, or if Borjan tripped on his shoelaces and let a slow roller past him. These are plays that our players should successfully execute nearly every single time, but sometimes you just mess up.

 

Thats assuming that AD would pull rank though. Theres nothing to suggest that davies would go up to david and snatch the ball out of his hands if there was a clear heirarchy of penalty takers. They are friends, support each other, and have committed whole heartedly to Canada. Its also not like David is miles behind davies. David commands respect from the group as well. 

This happens on very rare occasions at the pro level and is usually between guys like mbappe and neymar who have a history of conflict. 

I think after what davies has done for the CMNT, he deserves more credit than assuming he would be guilty of breaking rank. 

[InglewoodJack]

17 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

Thats assuming that AD would pull rank though. Theres nothing to suggest that davies would go up to david and snatch the ball out of his hands if there was a clear heirarchy of penalty takers. They are friends, support each other, and have committed whole heartedly to Canada. Its also not like David is miles behind davies. David commands respect from the group as well. 

This happens on very rare occasions at the pro level and is usually between guys like mbappe and neymar who have a history of conflict. 

I think after what davies has done for the CMNT, he deserves more credit than assuming he would be guilty of breaking rank. 

I think if David had the ball in his hands when the ref called the PK, he would've taken it with no argument from his teammates. Davies picked it up- to go up to a guy- the face of your team at that- and snatch the biggest moment in his already illustrious career for what is like a 10% better chance at scoring what should be a gimme- that can mess with a guy.

Again, everyone is making sound arguments that work in a vacuum, but matches are fluid and decisions are made in flow, especially at that level. The time from the foul in the box to Davies missing the PK was probably shorter than the time in which it took me to write this post.

[Bigandy]

3 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

I think if David had the ball in his hands when the ref called the PK, he would've taken it with no argument from his teammates. Davies picked it up- to go up to a guy- the face of your team at that- and snatch the biggest moment in his already illustrious career for what is like a 10% better chance at scoring what should be a gimme- that can mess with a guy.

Again, everyone is making sound arguments that work in a vacuum, but matches are fluid and decisions are made in flow, especially at that level. The time from the foul in the box to Davies missing the PK was probably shorter than the time in which it took me to write this post.

Your example doesnt say if this is under the assumption that this was discussed before the game. I do think that the probability of Davies demanding the ball for the PK are drastically different if theres a predetermined kicker or not.

My point is that I dont believe it matters how fluid the game is, I believe that if it was very clear that David takes penalties, Davies would respect David and the CMNT program enough to not rip it out of his hands and cause drama. Maybe davies would ask him if he could take it, but I don't think there is any indication that Davies would create this drama and go against instructions. He has no history of doing this. In fact, his history with the CMNT is that he loves it and wants to grow it. 

The only ego based example of davies is that he tries too hard. He shoulders the responsibility of being the man and plays hero ball. However, wouldnt you feel obligated to make something happen when your so much better than 7-8 of the other guys on the field. I believe he is not being ego driven when he does hero ball, but rather he is shouldering the responsibility to make something happen (even if he doesnt do it in the right way).

Also, i think one of the challenges of davies PK is how long he had the ball in his hand. I seem to remember it was around 3 minutes of him waiting before he could take the penalty. Thats an eternity when your standing at the penalty spot waiting.  

[Kent]

6 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

I get that mentality and it makes sense, but what do you do when that #3 guy has the ball in his hands with 90,000 people in the stands and probably 10 million watching at home.

You say "Hey man, coach picked me to be the PK taker." If Davies is still being a jerk about it, another player or two from the leadership group says "What's going on here guys? David taking this or passing it off?" And Davies would know if he takes it (especially if he misses) that Herdman will chew him out at half time.

[Kent]

5 hours ago, Bigandy said:

Also, i think one of the challenges of davies PK is how long he had the ball in his hand. I seem to remember it was around 3 minutes of him waiting before he could take the penalty. Thats an eternity when your standing at the penalty spot waiting.  

Yeah, this is very much the case. There was too long a wait. Davies should have reset after that wait. Walk up to the ball, pick it up, place it down again, re-focus. Easier said than done, that was a tough situation.

[InglewoodJack]

2 minutes ago, Kent said:

You say "Hey man, coach picked me to be the PK taker." If Davies is still being a jerk about it, another player or two from the leadership group says "What's going on here guys? David taking this or passing it off?" And Davies would know if he takes it (especially if he misses) that Herdman will chew him out at half time.

I just don't think any of this matters when it comes to a crucial moment at the world cup.

As for the bolded, the final scene in Inglorious Basterds where Brad Pitt shoots the nazi, and Cristoph Waltz tells him "you'll be shot for this!!!" and Pitt is like "nah, I'll get chewed out. I been chewed out before it's fine". That's Davies. Yeah, Herdman can yell his head off in the locker room, but hey, it's a small price to pay for the chance of world cup glory.