FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[maplebanana]

I had kind of forgotten about Copa America using FIFA rankings (likely). I was thinking we didn't need to actually worry about our FIFA ranking till WC 2030 qualifying. But you are probably right, unless they do pot 1 = top 4 CONMEBOL, pot 2 = top 4 CONCACAF then pot 3 & 4 mixed.

The thing I'm most worried about is CNL seeding, which is based on CONCACAF index. If we end up in 4th, we may be forced to play Jamaica in the QF for a spot in the Copa America. And then even if we win that home-at-home, we have the USA in the SF. Getting to 3rd would mean likely Panama in QF, Mexico in SF. 

[youllneverwalkalone]

On 6/29/2023 at 8:27 AM, InglewoodJack said:

New FIFA rankings just dropped. We inched up to 45, just below Norway and above Slovakia. 
 

Costa Rica drops to 42, Mexico up to 14, US to 11.

 

https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id14058

I feel like Costa Rica is definitely beating the system.

[shorty]

Instead of rigging the pots, they could just use the FIFA rankings but have a min 1/max 2 CONCACAF rule for any one group, similar to the World Cup’s “no teams from the same confederation except UEFA” rule.  Two groups would be 2 and 2, two groups would be 3 and 1. 

[Redpunkfiddle]

So it looks like that's a minus 8 or so points from the draw with Guatemala. 

 

 

[footballfreak]

On 6/30/2023 at 11:16 AM, maplebanana said:

I had kind of forgotten about Copa America using FIFA rankings (likely). I was thinking we didn't need to actually worry about our FIFA ranking till WC 2030 qualifying. But you are probably right, unless they do pot 1 = top 4 CONMEBOL, pot 2 = top 4 CONCACAF then pot 3 & 4 mixed.

The thing I'm most worried about is CNL seeding, which is based on CONCACAF index. If we end up in 4th, we may be forced to play Jamaica in the QF for a spot in the Copa America. And then even if we win that home-at-home, we have the USA in the SF. Getting to 3rd would mean likely Panama in QF, Mexico in SF. 

Provided Copa America does use FIFA rankings for the pots, it would take quite a bit of movement to dislodge us from pot 3. Is it even possible in the windows remaining?

[eramosat]

sad, my post quotes are not appearing. 😞

I remember the days when tie-ing the likes of Guatemala in Gold Cup would earn us 8 FIFA ranking points, or even more.  Probably for the best though.

As for whether or not Canada will stay in the Top 12 invited nations, for Pot 3 inclusion in June 2024 Copa America?  Well, that is complicated.   I prefer to concentrate on actually getting the invite, as opposed to the pot selection.  Canada has to advance in next years Nations League to the semis, or win a H@H vs another quarters loser.  Doable but still, requires actual results. They're seeded 3rd right now in bizarre CONCACAF Index, a big deal for selection of their opponents!  But it will go down to the Oct wire with Costa Rica for CONCACAF Index points.

Even then...I think they could fall to Pot 4 for Copa America, too many teams just behind them in FIFA rankings in both federations with plenty of games to play.  But that's not nearly as big a deal as World Cup...Pot 3 and 4 will include the usual candidates from CONCACAF, 4 of them, plus the bottom 4 CONMEBOL nations, all of whom will be competitive.  So preferring to play one of, say likely POT 4 (Panama Jamaica Bolivia Venezuela) as opposed one of likely POT 3 (Panama/Jamaica Costa Rica Paraguay Ecuador)? 

Ok, now that I lay it all out, I certainly prefer Pot 3 for Canada.  But all those teams are certainly competitive for Canada, W L or D are all believable outcomes in every case, it's a great opportunity for Canada, so just qualify!

Edited July 7, 2023 by eramosat

[Kent]

1 hour ago, eramosat said:

sad, my post quotes are not appearing. 😞

I remember the days when tie-ing the likes of Guatemala in Gold Cup would earn us 8 FIFA ranking points, or even more.  Probably for the best though.

As for whether or not Canada will stay in the Top 12 invited nations, for Pot 3 inclusion in June 2024 Copa America?  Well, that is complicated.   I prefer to concentrate on actually getting the invite, as opposed to the pot selection.  Canada has to advance in next years Nations League to the semis, or win a H@H vs another quarters loser.  Doable but still, requires actual results. They're seeded 3rd right now in bizarre CONCACAF Index, a big deal for selection of their opponents!  But it will go down to the Oct wire with Costa Rica for CONCACAF Index points.

Even then...I think they could fall to Pot 4 for Copa America, too many teams just behind them in FIFA rankings in both federations with plenty of games to play.  But that's not nearly as big a deal as World Cup...Pot 3 and 4 will include the usual candidates from CONCACAF, 4 of them, plus the bottom 4 CONMEBOL nations, all of whom will be competitive.  So preferring to play one of, say likely POT 4 (Panama Jamaica Bolivia Venezuela) as opposed one of likely POT 3 (Panama/Jamaica Costa Rica Paraguay Ecuador)? 

Ok, now that I lay it all out, I certainly prefer Pot 3 for Canada.  But all those teams are certainly competitive for Canada, W L or D are all believable outcomes in every case, it's a great opportunity for Canada, so just qualify!

The more I think about it, the more I think it will be like 2016 where 4 CONCACAF teams will be in one pot together, and USA and Mexico will be in a different pot along with 2 South American teams. So I think the only CONCACAF teams we would be able to draw against would be USA or Mexico, we wouldn't get someone like Panama, Jamaica, or Costa Rica, if my assumption is correct.

[Obinna]

Do we get draw ranking points against the USA, since the game went to PKs, or will that count as a loss for us?

[maplebanana]

2 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Do we get draw ranking points against the USA, since the game went to PKs, or will that count as a loss for us?

Counts as a draw for us, so we should gain FIFA points. Not sure about CONCACAF index points.

From here: https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/f99da4f73212220/original/edbm045h0udbwkqew35a-pdf.pdf

Quote

Penalty shoot-out (PSO): Matches decided in a PSO are treated as a draw for the losing team and as "half a win" for the winning team: W for the winning team is 0.75 instead of 1.0 for a win after regular or extended time. If PSO, then W for losing team= 0.5 W for winning team= 0.75

 

[Obinna]

Thanks @maplebanana. That's not so bad for us then, considering they have a 11 ranking right now. At the very least it should cancel out the draw with Guatemala, who is ranked 116 (or something like that). Beating Cuba gets us a very minor lift in FIFA points, so maybe we come out of the GC with a very marginal gain - perhaps we move up 1 spot or stay at 45

[Free kick]

On 7/7/2023 at 4:43 PM, Kent said:

The more I think about it, the more I think it will be like 2016 where 4 CONCACAF teams will be in one pot together, and USA and Mexico will be in a different pot along with 2 South American teams. So I think the only CONCACAF teams we would be able to draw against would be USA or Mexico, we wouldn't get someone like Panama, Jamaica, or Costa Rica, if my assumption is correct.

Yes,  If there is one thing I expect is that if there something that CONMEBOL can do stack the draw and other rules in favor of South American sides,  they will do it.  

[eramosat]

2 hours ago, Free kick said:

Yes,  If there is one thing I expect is that if there something that CONMEBOL can do stack the draw and other rules in favor of South American sides,  they will do it.  

hey, if the CONCACAF bottom 4 get placed in a single pool, and Canada is in it, I'll take it every which way.  Would love to see the men avoid all CONCACAF opponents and face-off against CONMEBOL teams, and see how everything is (or isn't) adjusted.  Would love to see Canada in a group with Argentina, Chile and Ecuador, or Brazil, Columbia, Paraguay, I don't care, it would all be awesome.

 

if that's equal to stacking the draw, well, I'll allow it.  their party, their rules.

[Jedi Ram]

When does the new rankings come out? 

[Neil R.]

53 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

When does the new rankings come out? 

In just over a week. Thursday, July 20th.

[Kent]

3 hours ago, eramosat said:

hey, if the CONCACAF bottom 4 get placed in a single pool, and Canada is in it, I'll take it every which way.  Would love to see the men avoid all CONCACAF opponents and face-off against CONMEBOL teams, and see how everything is (or isn't) adjusted.  Would love to see Canada in a group with Argentina, Chile and Ecuador, or Brazil, Columbia, Paraguay, I don't care, it would all be awesome.

 

if that's equal to stacking the draw, well, I'll allow it.  their party, their rules.

This is said with fresh Gold Cup rage, but if the Copa America wasn't held in the United States I would kind of want to play USA or Mexico to see how we stack up against them in, say, Argentina or Colombia. But since it will be in USA again, I would rather just play CONMEBOL teams for sure. At least until the super unlikely Canada vs Jamaica final to determine who is the best team in South America.

[Redpunkfiddle]

17 hours ago, Obinna said:

Do we get draw ranking points against the USA, since the game went to PKs, or will that count as a loss for us?

Yes we got about 9 points for the draw result vs USA. Btw no one loses points for a loss in the knock out phase so not to punish teams that advance from group phase.

We also lost about 9 points for the draw against Guatemala. Leaving us for all our efforts in the tournament with the about 5 points we got for beating Cuba.

Panama will be nipping at our heels when the next rankings come out with that win last night.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Redpunkfiddle

[Redpunkfiddle]

Double post

Edited July 13, 2023 by Redpunkfiddle

[mrstepp817]

55 minutes ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

Yes we got about 9 points for the draw result vs USA. Btw no one loses points for a loss in the knock out phase so not to punish teams that advance from group phase.

We also lost about 9 points for the draw against Guatemala. Leaving us for all our efforts in the tournament with the about 5 points we got for beating Cuba.

Panama will be nipping at our heels when the next rankings come out with that win last night.

I thought if a game ends in penalties for ranking purposes it goes down as a tie? Or did I make that up? 

[Redpunkfiddle]

11 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

I thought if a game ends in penalties for ranking purposes it goes down as a tie? Or did I make that up? 

Sure, that’s what I was trying to say. Our penalties-loss to USA was deemed a draw for ranking points. Which gave us about 9.

[mrstepp817]

36 minutes ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

Sure, that’s what I was trying to say. Our penalties-loss to USA was deemed a draw for ranking points. Which gave us about 9.

So then Panama won't get a win last night either...will be a draw too 

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

16 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

So then Panama won't get a win last night either...will be a draw too 

You get more points than a draw (but less than a win) I believe.

 

Edit: Found the documentation 

"Penalty shoot-out (PSO): Matches decided in a PSO are treated as a draw for the losing team 
and as "half a win" for the winning team: W for the winning team is 0.75 instead of 1.0 for a win 
after regular or extended time.
If PSO, then W for losing team= 0.5
W for winning team= 0.75"

Edited July 13, 2023 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[Gian-Luca]

Canada is up to #43, 3rd in Concacaf. Panama jumped to 45 in large part due to their win over the US (since the rankings don’t take part in any fan debates over whether this was a US C, D, K or V team at the Gold Cup). Costa Rica drops to 5th in the region at #46. Norway is the UEFA interloper in this quartet at #44.

US is #11 and Mexico #12. The rest of our World Cup group is now 5th, 6th and 14th…

Edited July 20, 2023 by Gian-Luca

[Obinna]

Panama is going to over take us for 3rd this fall and Costa Rica could even push us down to 5th if we are inactive and both are playing NL group stage games, which they will possibly take maximum points from. Friendlies aren't worth as much, if we even have them at all. And if we play anybody decent we may lose points.

[maplebanana]

18 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Panama is going to over take us for 3rd this fall and Costa Rica could even push us down to 5th if we are inactive and both are playing NL group stage games, which they will possibly take maximum points from. Friendlies aren't worth as much, if we even have them at all. And if we play anybody decent we may lose points.

You're probably right about Panama. But Costa Rica is in the same boat as us: no NL group stage games (bye to QF) and currently no scheduled Sept/Oct friendlies. 

[Obinna]

45 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

You're probably right about Panama. But Costa Rica is in the same boat as us: no NL group stage games (bye to QF) and currently no scheduled Sept/Oct friendlies. 

Forgot about that!