Match Thread: World Cup Group F - Matchday 2 - Croatia v Canada - November 27, 2022 - 7pm local time / 11am ET / 8am PT

[king1010]

Man we shoudlve gotten that draw or even win vs belgium

[rdb9ty]

We have to go and beat Croatia to simplify things for ourselves

[Big_M]

We need at least 1 point from this match or we are eliminated

[vancanman]

9 minutes ago, rdb9ty said:

A draw vs Croatia and a win over Morocco can still put us through even if today's result holds. 

In that case, I hope Croatia runs all over Belgium and knocks these clowns out of the World Cup.

[rdb9ty]

Just now, vancanman said:

In that case, I hope Croatia runs all over Belgium and knocks these clowns out of the World Cup.

Because of that second Moroccan goal, we would now need to beat them by 2 goals in the last match for us to make it assuming we draw Croatia

[SthMelbRed]

1 minute ago, Big_M said:

We need at least 1 point from this match or we are eliminated

We always did.

[vancanman]

17 minutes ago, narduch said:

Yikes

[Allez les Rouges]

On 11/24/2022 at 2:03 PM, Allez les Rouges said:

Scenarios for remaining games

In all cases, Canada advances with 2 wins and is eliminated with any further loss; I examine the other cases below.

If BEL/MAR draw
Canada advances with a 2-goal win and a draw.
Canada advances with a 1-goal win and a draw UNLESS tiebreaker goes beyond goal differential and Canada loses it.
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws.

If BEL beats MAR
Canada advances with win vs. CRO and draw vs. MAR UNLESS CRO beats BEL and wins tiebreaker against CAN.
Canada advances with draw vs. CRO and win vs. MAR UNLESS CRO beats BEL.
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws UNLESS BEL beats CRO and CAN wins 3-way tiebreaker.

If MAR beats BEL by x goals
Canada advances with win vs. CRO and draw vs. MAR UNLESS any ONE of the following occurs:
- BEL beats CRO,
- BEL draws CRO and x=1 and CAN beats CRO by only 1 goal and BEL at least matches CAN in total goals,
- CRO beats BEL and wins tiebreaker against CAN.
Canada advances with draw vs. CRO and win vs. MAR UNLESS EITHER of the following occurs:
- BEL does not draw CRO and either CAN beats MAR by 0.5x goals or less or (CAN beats MAR by 0.5x+0.5 goals and has fewer total goals than MAR)
- BEL draws CRO and x=1 and CAN beats MAR by only 1 goal and is not among the two teams advancing via the BEL/CAN/MAR tiebreaker (all 3 teams at 0 differential, so starts with total goals for)
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws.

My takeways:
- Overall, BEL/MAR draw is the best scenario for Canada, although BEL beating MAR is the only case where Canada could advance with 2 draws.
- BEL win is preferable to MAR win if Canada then beats CRO.
- MAR win, especially a small one, is arguably preferable to BEL win if Canada then draws CRO. It would give Canada control of its destiny, but may require a margin of victory against MAR.
- In any case, Canada will need help if it draws MAR on the 3rd matchday UNLESS BEL/MAR draw and Canada beats CRO by 2+ goals, in which case a draw vs. MAR would be guaranteed to suffice.

2-0 MAR win vs. BEL means that the last column of the table applies. In more detail, to advance, Canada needs:

(a) 2 wins, or

(b) win vs. CRO and draw vs. MAR and EITHER:
- BEL/CRO draw
- CRO win vs. BEL and fails to win tiebreaker against CAN, or

(c) draw vs. CRO and win vs. MAR and EITHER:
- BEL/CRO draw
- CAN beats MAR by at least 2 goals.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

3 minutes ago, rdb9ty said:

Fuck that second goal is brutal for us

Let's be honest though anyone who watched the Canada v Belgium game carefully would have concluded that our team carved out the chances needed to win. Morocco no doubt studied what happened in that game very carefully.

[jonovision]

Who cares about this group stuff? 

Who's scoring Canada's first ever goal from this XI? Vitoria or Larin for me.

[vancanman]

7 minutes ago, Califax said:

Can I just say - and Im sorry if it's off topic - but this pissing match between Kilbane and Pesch is a pretty stupid thing to going on about on the day of our biggest game ever.

Especially ironic for anyone on TSN to get their guard up when their indifference to soccer is part of the reason the players and the CSA are at odds. 

 

 

What's all this then?

[canuckgbp]

1 minute ago, jonovision said:

Who cares about this group stuff? 

Who's scoring Canada's first ever goal from this XI? Vitoria or Larin for me.

Late run Atiba into the box 

[trc2014]

16 minutes ago, VinceA said:

We're gonna get run over in mdifield...

The fact we aren’t putting 3 in the midfield is ridiculous.

[SthMelbRed]

Now, we need Felix to win this 2nd set before KO in an hour!

[gwsmith63]

Belgium = pish.

Wednesday hurts even more now. 

🤬

[jonovision]

4 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

The fact we aren’t putting 3 in the midfield is ridiculous.

Who would you put in? All have major drawbacks. I don't mind playing to our strengths here.

[rydermike]

5 minutes ago, canuckgbp said:

Late run Atiba into the box 

Upside down with the back of his head like El Salvador? 

[Mattd97]

Larryea was terrific so I get why he's starting again but it's wild adekugbe isn't starting either game after the way WCQ played out

[Unnamed Trialist]

11 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Who cares about this group stuff? 

Who's scoring Canada's first ever goal from this XI? Vitoria or Larin for me.

OG all the way baby.

[Unnamed Trialist]

8 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

Now, we need Felix to win this 2nd set before KO in an hour!

Really great accomplishment if we can do it.

[jonovision]

2 minutes ago, Mattd97 said:

Larryea was terrific so I get why he's starting again but it's wild adekugbe isn't starting either game after the way WCQ played out

True, but if David is lined up more defensively again, which I think we (and he) need there is no room for Adekugbe. In a way, it's wild that Adekugbe got so much time in a lineup that includes one of the world's best left backs.

[vancanman]

10 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

Now, we need Felix to win this 2nd set before KO in an hour!

That was quite an escape from that first service game.

[DeRo_Is_King]

I think we may need to see Cav or Ugbo subbed on at some point. 

[Shway]

Wrong change for me…Larin should still be the super sub. 

[jonovision]

5 minutes ago, Shway said:

Wrong change for me…Larin should still be the super sub. 

It's not a role he's accustomed to for Canada, and when he has come on as a sub he has not been particularly super.

Edited November 27, 2022 by jonovision