CPL new teams speculation

[Cheeta]

10 hours ago, Kent said:

This is an interesting point and has got me thinking. I don't know what the rich guys who own teams are actually thinking the reasons for expansion fees are, but lots of fans think that at least part of it is to signal that an ownership group is serious. If this is actually a consideration, it would be interesting/positive for money spent on building/upgrading a stadium to count towards an expansion fee. The league needs good stadiums, and if a team is going to spend, for example, 15 million on a stadium, give them a pass on the 12 million expansion fee, because they are already investing in the pro game.

Shouldn't get hung up on the figure too much.  As you wrote, I'm sure case by case the league will be flexible on receit.  It could be drawn from future CSB payments, it could be cash, some combo there of, who knows?  In the end it's still real money coming to the previous owners.

Doubt Wade Miller would ever allow Valour's portion of an expansion fee to go to developing an asset, like a venue, for somebody else.  That "Big Picture" stuff is hard for some to see.  Well, that and he just might be right.  

[Kingston]

On 8/20/2022 at 2:31 AM, Unnamed Trialist said:

The 9 current owners sitting rubbing their sweaty palms and saying we were here first, if you want to sit in the tree house you gotta pay, that is plain retrograde. Look, there will come a day you can say it, when we have 12 teams, for example, or more. If a 13th really wants in, let them pay, when you reach the optimal threshold, whatever it may be (12, 13, 14?), require high entry fees. But not before. 

This is the summary argument of your long and well written post.

The league is not yet an established, financially successful endeavour.  The league needs more teams and ownership groups.  It should make the fee high enough that people have to be serious but not so high that it deters people, especially when we also expect spending on stadia and so on.  But right now each new team grows the pie.  The league will get a better media contract with more teams.  It will get bigger sponsorship deals.  It will be more stable.  And so on.

Hopefully one day the CPL can be like the NHL, etc. where new teams don't really expand the footprint in a way that is meaningfully interesting to sponsors.  Then each new team actually means splitting the pie more ways.  At that point, yes, realize the value of your investment and have a huge expansion fee if you want to admit a new team.

Secondarily, does it make sense to charge high expansion fees if your stated aspiration is to eventually introduce pro/rel?

 

[Ansem]

On 8/20/2022 at 2:31 AM, Unnamed Trialist said:

In my opinion having a 12 million dollar fee is assinine, and it responds to a mistaken mentality. You don't bunker down and act like you are in early on a good deal and use that to leverage income for yourself from every newcomer, as it is backwards thinking. Unfortunately, I think this backwards thinking is out there and they are not thinking it through. Adjust the fee, don't devalue yourself by a fee too high, value yourself by making it reasonable but lower.

I disagree with this. The fee includes buying into CSB which seems to be doing good business to the point where everyone who were busy ignoring and snubbing the whole thing since 2019 now wants the deal blown up so they keep less money.

It's called having "skin in the game" before being entitled to your cut

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

13 hours ago, Kingston said:

Secondarily, does it make sense to charge high expansion fees if your stated aspiration is to eventually introduce pro/rel?

Of course it doesn't and there shouldn't be any territorial rights either if they are fostering an independent club model but think it's clear by now that was all just marketing spin.

[SpursFlu]

I dont get the logic that being relegated is some kinda financial disaster. It's not ideal but does a team gain more from being a winner in a second division or floundering at the bottom of 1st division for years on end spending more on salaries. I don't really know the answer but I don't think it's as cut and dry as all the North American sport fans always put forward. To me it feels a bit more free market and you eventually get in where you fit in

Edited August 23, 2022 by SpursFlu

[Kent]

21 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I dont get the logic that being relegated is some kinda financial disaster. It's not ideal but does a team gain more from being a winner in a second division or floundering at the bottom of 1st division for years on end spending more on salaries. I don't really know the answer but I don't think it's as cut and dry as all the North American sport fans always put forward. To me it feels a bit more free market and you eventually get in where you fit in

Yeah, I think the notion of disaster probably comes from people thinking it would be like your NHL team all of a sudden becoming an AHL team in a one off move. Or they are thinking about the big difference in money earned between the EPL and the Championship. But it doesn't have to be that. If there is promotion and relegation, the prestige divide between the 2 leagues doesn't have to be huge like NHL and AHL, and the money divide from sponsorships, TV/streaming, etc doesn't have to be huge like the EPL/Championship, especially since the CPL isn't raking in EPL type money. EPL and the Championship are technically different leagues (unlike the Championship and League One/Two, to my understanding), but since the 2nd division doesn't exist in Canada, the CPL teams can decide to split money with the hypothetical new 2nd tier evenly, since it would potentially be home to their team sometimes.

But I am curious. I might see if I can find a pair of non-COVID spoiled years and see what the difference in attendance was with promoted/relegated teams in EPL/Championship/League One/League Two.

[Kingston]

45 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I dont get the logic that being relegated is some kinda financial disaster. It's not ideal but does a team gain more from being a winner in a second division or floundering at the bottom of 1st division for years on end spending more on salaries. I don't really know the answer but I don't think it's as cut and dry as all the North American sport fans always put forward. To me it feels a bit more free market and you eventually get in where you fit in

I'm not worried about it being a financial disaster if the CPL had pro/rel and a team went from the CPL to CPL2.  My point was with respect to expansion fees.

In typical North American leagues you pay a large expansion fee because you are effectively buying a part of a successful league.  So you pay, and existing teams want to maximize what you pay, but you are guaranteed a spot.

In European soccer with pro/rel, you aren't guaranteed anything but there also isn't any such thing as an expansion fee.  You could regress a division but you aren't out of pocket as you didn't pay a fee to get there in the first place.

I'm questioning whether the CPL wants to establish a large expansion fee if they plan of having pro/rel.  Because presumably pro/rel would eventually mean that some L1O team could play their way in to the CPL basically for free.  Okay, fine, but if that's the case, what about someone who paid a $12 million expansion fee to get there and then gets relegated?  It seems to me you either have expansion fees or pro/rel, not both.

[Ansem]

Also timing is everything.

Best time to launch a D2 would be post 2026 after this country had a taste of the World Cup being here AND having a performing team making the Round of 16.

Soccer needs to be at it's peak and mainstream where demand is high and more investors would be willing to start clubs in a D2 league in medium to small markets.

Pro/Rel could only happen once a new TV deal is negotiated in 2029 to include all Tiers and Women's league bundled with all National Team games + Canadian Championship. You could find a financial formula where getting relegated doesn't mean going bankrupt. Also, clarification on sanction would help 6-7 years from now.

[Kent]

25 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Because presumably pro/rel would eventually mean that some L1O team could play their way in to the CPL basically for free.  Okay, fine, but if that's the case, what about someone who paid a $12 million expansion fee to get there and then gets relegated?  It seems to me you either have expansion fees or pro/rel, not both.

I get what you are saying here, and I have thought about it in the past. You could do something where if a team is getting promoted from L1O up to CDL (D = Deuxieme, for the 2nd tier) that in order to complete their promotion they would have to pay the fee then, otherwise they forfeit their right to promote and stay in L1O. A team that gets relegated out of CDL into L1O wouldn't have to pay a fee if they eventually make it back into CDL/CPL because they have already bought in.

I have no idea if this would realistically work, just a thought.

[SpursFlu]

25 minutes ago, Kingston said:

I'm not worried about it being a financial disaster if the CPL had pro/rel and a team went from the CPL to CPL2.  My point was with respect to expansion fees.

In typical North American leagues you pay a large expansion fee because you are effectively buying a part of a successful league.  So you pay, and existing teams want to maximize what you pay, but you are guaranteed a spot.

In European soccer with pro/rel, you aren't guaranteed anything but there also isn't any such thing as an expansion fee.  You could regress a division but you aren't out of pocket as you didn't pay a fee to get there in the first place.

I'm questioning whether the CPL wants to establish a large expansion fee if they plan of having pro/rel.  Because presumably pro/rel would eventually mean that some L1O team could play their way in to the CPL basically for free.  Okay, fine, but if that's the case, what about someone who paid a $12 million expansion fee to get there and then gets relegated?  It seems to me you either have expansion fees or pro/rel, not both.

You are guaranteed something, you just don't know what it is until you end up in that particular division. Your costs also reflect the league you play in so it's a good opportunity to shed some costs you can't sustain. I also think it's more positive for your brand and revenue to win. So interest in a team that is winning a lower division can revitalize a fan base. I'm just saying that this whole idea that being relegated is a financial death sentence is not entirely true. Also if you only have 2 divisions it's probably not a stretch to have a more equal revenue distribution then if you're talking about multiple multiple divisions

[Watchmen]

The big clubs in Europe tried to form a semi-closed circuit super league, one of the teams being the current owners of Ottawa. Rugby in England is trying to move towards a closed circuit at the top (and effectively Ireland, Scotland, Wales are already there). North America is already set up with closed leagues across all sports. I think CPL's leadership has at times pandered to the "pro/rel" crowd because they know it's what a hardcore group of fans wants to hear, but I do not think they're are seriously considering it.

[SpursFlu]

I think there is a big difference between some giant grand open system and creating a 24 team 2 division pro rel system. Or if MLS merged with USL and created a 60 team 3 division pro rel system. It's the same but not at all the same

[Watchmen]

3 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I think there is a big difference between some giant grand open system and creating a 24 team 2 division pro rel system. Or if MLS merged with USL and created a 60 team 3 division pro rel system. It's the same but not at all the same

Sure. But part of your point has been "it's more exciting to be winning div 2 than constantly losing div 1". I think we'd have to check with Norwich fans to see what they think. But, the problem with that theory starts to become "what if a team is stuck at the bottom of div 2?" It's all the same problems as being at the bottom of div 1, except worse because it's not even the "best" league available.

And I realize this would still be a ways off but just how much cost savings do you think there would be? Travel would still be high. Player salaries? How much more are you going to squeeze out of them there?

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

They thought being the antithesis of MLS was the way to go in marketing terms so talked up an independent club model going into year one since pro/rel tends to be a cause celebre for fans who hate how MLS is structured.

The more details that have emerged about the league since then the more it appears to be a conventional North American franchise approach that isn't quite an MLS style single entity but still has many of the same elements of that approach in place.

They would need to have many more clubs in Halifax territory on crowds before talk of two national air travel tiers moves out of the realm of fantasy to something worth discussing seriously. As things stand even being able to sustain one is no sure thing yet. 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[SpursFlu]

5 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

Sure. But part of your point has been "it's more exciting to be winning div 2 than constantly losing div 1". I think we'd have to check with Norwich fans to see what they think. But, the problem with that theory starts to become "what if a team is stuck at the bottom of div 2?" It's all the same problems as being at the bottom of div 1, except worse because it's not even the "best" league available.

And I realize this would still be a ways off but just how much cost savings do you think there would be? Travel would still be high. Player salaries? How much more are you going to squeeze out of them there?

If you get "stuck" you're probably where you're meant to be. I think its only right and it doesn't necessarily mean financial disaster. If we take CPL as an example 12 million. 12 million is really not a lot of money.  Its really just about finding people who want to be involved and spend their time running a football club. So 15 years later you're stuck in a 2nd division? There's always hope at least. If these guys need to sell Barry to pay Garry so be it. I can guarantee you a 2nd division CPL team in 15 years with a chip and a chair to be promoted would be worth way more than 12 million or what a 1st division team would be worth 15 years earlier 

Edited August 23, 2022 by SpursFlu

[Watchmen]

2 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

If you get "stuck" you're probably where you're meant to be. I think its only right and it doesn't necessarily mean financial disaster. If we take CPL as an example 12 million. 12 million is really not a lot of money.  Its really just about finding people who want to be involved and spend their time running a football club. So 15 years later you're stuck in a 2nd division? There's always hope at least

Well, we currently have 8 teams playing and only 6 owners (since the league owns Edmonton and Young supports both Forge and Halifax). The 9th team is also dual ownership. So the number of owners willing to do this seems pretty limited. I'd say what's more likely is that an owner walks away from a bottom tier club and just takes the tax write off, leaving it up to the league to handle.

[narduch]

Just an aside, but the top 2 tiers in Holland are closed.

I believe even Scotland the top 4 tiers were closed for a bit but that changed now

[narduch]

33 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

The big clubs in Europe tried to form a semi-closed circuit super league, one of the teams being the current owners of Ottawa. Rugby in England is trying to move towards a closed circuit at the top (and effectively Ireland, Scotland, Wales are already there). North America is already set up with closed leagues across all sports. I think CPL's leadership has at times pandered to the "pro/rel" crowd because they know it's what a hardcore group of fans wants to hear, but I do not think they're are seriously considering it.

I'm of the belief that there is a higher chance of major Euro leagues removing pro/rel than it being implemented here.

[narduch]

This also has me thinking. What is the optimal max size for the CPL? We have to face the fact that it may only be 12-14 teams.

And that isn't a bad thing, in my opinion.

Some of the best Euro soccer nations have fairly small top divisions.

[SpursFlu]

17 minutes ago, narduch said:

I'm of the belief that there is a higher chance of major Euro leagues removing pro/rel than it being implemented here.

I think a closed system is likely but will keep pro-rel. I think regional leagues are also more likely than eliminating pro-rel 

[SpursFlu]

12 minutes ago, narduch said:

This also has me thinking. What is the optimal max size for the CPL? We have to face the fact that it may only be 12-14 teams.

And that isn't a bad thing, in my opinion.

Some of the best Euro soccer nations have fairly small top divisions.

I think a sweet spot for a league is 12 min 24 max

[Kingston]

59 minutes ago, Kent said:

I get what you are saying here, and I have thought about it in the past. You could do something where if a team is getting promoted from L1O up to CDL (D = Deuxieme, for the 2nd tier) that in order to complete their promotion they would have to pay the fee then, otherwise they forfeit their right to promote and stay in L1O. A team that gets relegated out of CDL into L1O wouldn't have to pay a fee if they eventually make it back into CDL/CPL because they have already bought in.

I have no idea if this would realistically work, just a thought.

I see what you're saying.  Something like that could work, I suppose, but it would be awkward.  It would be a big financianl hit for a team moving upward who already presumably has to deal with increased salary costs, etc.  Also, what if I already paid a $5 million expansion fee in 2019, get relegated, and get promoted again in 2035 when the expansion fee is $25 million?  Am I free?  Do I pay the difference?

I appreciate that you or I or whoever could come up with ideas, but overall the idea of combining fees with pro/rel is awkward.

[Kingston]

57 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I think CPL's leadership has at times pandered to the "pro/rel" crowd because they know it's what a hardcore group of fans wants to hear, but I do not think they're are seriously considering it.

They were pretty clear when they started the league that they wanted pro/rel.  It wasn't stated as a pandering sort of "maybe we'll look into it" but rather as "this is the official plan".

[Kingston]

50 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

They would need to have many more clubs in Halifax territory on crowds before talk of two national air travel tiers moves out of the realm of fantasy to something worth discussing seriously. As things stand even being able to sustain one is no sure thing yet. 

Yes, even if the CPL is very serious about implementing pro/rel, it is a long ways away.  The CPL now is barely at the full national league level.  There certainly isn't room for another division below that right now.

[SpursFlu]

You gotta get to 16 or 18 teams before you can even think about it. That's 10 years away at best