Canadian Premier League

[lazlo_80]

35 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Interesting scenario to think about regarding the 3 Canadian Clubs:

• It's year 2032
• MLS capped their max teams at 32 teams
• Rich multi billionaires wants to join MLS but no spots are available except buying existing franchises
• They are all viable

Hypothetical, Bill Gates (net worth $81B), Jeff Bezos (net worth $67B) and Mark Zuckerberg (net worth $55B) or anyone else in the ballpark are adamant to own a club.

• They offer Toronto-Montreal-Vancouver over $500M to buy and move them to the US
• With their expansion fees being between $10M to $35M initially, they could make a huge return
• The 3 clubs counters with : more cash + retaining their brands and identity.
• They sell for an insane amount of money
• They turn around and pay a much smaller expansion fee and uses their retained brands and Identities to join CPL

If you're an owner, do you do it?

How much would it take for you to sell and start over in CPL?

it depends on the state of the two leagues and the sports market as a whole. Even if the Canadian league succeeds a teams' individual worth would never be as high as an MLS team simply due to population and other factors like that. 

[-Hammer-]

6 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Interesting scenario to think about regarding the 3 Canadian Clubs:

• It's year 2032
• MLS capped their max teams at 32 teams
• Rich multi billionaires wants to join MLS but no spots are available except buying existing franchises
• They are all viable

Hypothetical, Bill Gates (net worth $81B), Jeff Bezos (net worth $67B) and Mark Zuckerberg (net worth $55B) or anyone else in the ballpark are adamant to own a club.

• They offer Toronto-Montreal-Vancouver over $500M to buy and move them to the US
• With their expansion fees being between $10M to $35M initially, they could make a huge return
• The 3 clubs counters with : more cash + retaining their brands and identity.
• They sell for an insane amount of money
• They turn around and pay a much smaller expansion fee and uses their retained brands and Identities to join CPL

If you're an owner, do you do it?

How much would it take for you to sell and start over in CPL?

It's the same as any other investment, which really means there are two questions here, and it's not an easy answer no matter how you look at it.

The first, is how much is the asset worth if sold now vs how much is the asset worth long term and how much growth is expected from that asset? Companies like MLSE don't buy or sell franchises for sentimental reasons, they want a return on investment (which is why the NFL bans corporate ownership). Given all of MLS is viable, I think your growth has pretty much maximized, as the only avenue for growth now is going to be television viewing, which has historically been a great weakness of MLS due to the presence of the other Big 4 leagues, and European leagues simply offering a far better product, or expanding your stadium, which is going to be a lot of money that is unlikely to come from the public. Both scenarios are long hauls, and that's pretty much when you want to sell, so you don't have to do any more heavy lifting for little gain. With no, have and have not teams, you aren't benefiting or losing out on revenue sharing either. That said, because of that you've also greatly increased the cost of the asset, because any new owner knows he's getting a stable revenue share, and not paying out to upstart franchises.

The second is how much is the cost of buying the new asset, and weight that cost vs realistic growth revenue. That leads to the question, how well is the CPL doing in this hypothetical scenario, and how fast is it growing? If it's slow and hasn't caught on, that means it's going to cost a lot more to grow it, and might not be attractive. On the other hand, if it's already drawing 10,000 a franchise, you have ample growth potential, likely for a cheap enough cost.

Also keeping in mind, the optics of such a move are tricky if you are keeping your other Toronto based franchises. Apart from commitments to the local city and community, your run the risk of alienating people on your other properties and your new franchise. Also keep in mind, MLSE's owners are actively involved in the sport cable scene, so them selling further disrupts their existing businesses. It's not an easy number to pin down.

[dyslexic nam]

As much as I am a CPL-first proponent when it comes to Canadianna, I tend to think that the ceiling for MLS truly is to be one of the top leagues in the world within the next 20-30 years.  If footy has shown us anything, it is that money generally equals success.  England is a case study in this - rich owners buy established clubs and then buy world-class players that elevate the teams to the upper tier of world footy.  Chelsea was a good, but generally not great, team before Abramovich.  Same with ManCity before the Saudi investment.  Now, each of them have won the EPL, have world class players, are established brands, and have hired some of the best coaches in the game.  Money does generally provide success.  Now, the England examples were (importantly) predicated on a strong league - one that is not currently in place in the US and Canada - but it shows the general point that money generally makes things happen when it comes to footy.

Moving back to MLS, the money flowing into the league is constantly growing, and I see no reason why this won't continue.  With the on-field product getting better all the time, I fully anticipate that more attention will be paid to MLS from respected footy nations.  Players won't be as desperate to move asap to make a decent living. "Journeymen" wages will continue to rise which allows the overall quality to grow.  Teams are getting smarter about the DP investments.  Etc.

All of which to say that I don't see owners bailing on MLS for a quick cash out unless the offer is truly stupefying when compared to the current valuation.  On their current trajectory, the 3 Canadian clubs could have huge annual revenue streams in the timelines being discussed - if they play their cards right.  The principle of your questions still stands: would they be persuaded to walk away if a suitably massive offer came in?  And I assume they would.  Everything has a price.  But I am not sure what kind of outlandish, jaw-dropping figure would be required to force the issue. 

[Rheo]

More on the Sea to Sea pod.  Not a lot of news, lots of good discussion on CPL topics or news that could relate to it, as well as some World Cup bid talk.

Only newsish thing one said they had heard from a reliable source that Vic wanted the CPL announcement shortly after the ratification.  Not doubting it by calling it newsish but we've heard that before lol.

 

[Macksam]

2 hours ago, Ansem said:

Interesting scenario to think about regarding the 3 Canadian Clubs:

• It's year 2032
• MLS capped their max teams at 32 teams
• Rich multi billionaires wants to join MLS but no spots are available except buying existing franchises
• They are all viable

Hypothetical, Bill Gates (net worth $81B), Jeff Bezos (net worth $67B) and Mark Zuckerberg (net worth $55B) or anyone else in the ballpark are adamant to own a club.

• They offer Toronto-Montreal-Vancouver over $500M to buy and move them to the US
• With their expansion fees being between $10M to $35M initially, they could make a huge return
• The 3 clubs counters with : more cash + retaining their brands and identity.
• They sell for an insane amount of money
• They turn around and pay a much smaller expansion fee and uses their retained brands and Identities to join CPL

If you're an owner, do you do it?

How much would it take for you to sell and start over in CPL?

When you say MLS caps their teams at 32, you're also making an implication the big TV money ( $1 billion plus) has rolled into the league so no, they don't do it. Even I wouldn't do it and I don't like MLSE. An MLS team in your scenario would have a US $80 to $100 million salary cap at that stage. What cap would a CPL that maxed out its potential (big TV money, 30000 plus attendance, etc.) be? $20 million? $30 million maybe, and that's a big maybe.

[Metroimpact]

Alternate scenario the MLS Canadian clubs could relocate to US city and still maintain ownership, while moving their Canadian team/brand to the CanPL. 

 

[lazlo_80]

I think the more likely scenario would be a team to buy their way into a second club in the CPL rather than shift over.

 

[Complete Homer]

2 hours ago, Rheo said:

More on the Sea to Sea pod.  Not a lot of news, lots of good discussion on CPL topics or news that could relate to it, as well as some World Cup bid talk.

Only newsish thing one said they had heard from a reliable source that Vic wanted the CPL announcement shortly after the ratification.  Not doubting it by calling it newsish but we've heard that before lol.

 

Heh. Always wary about hard dates

Right now we are mostly discussion based, but we have some good guests getting lined up, so once we get a bit better with scheduling it will be more than just two people yakking

[lazlo_80]

so how many days away are we from the vote? And how many days until Montagliani has to officially give up the head CSA gig?

[rob.notenboom]

48 minutes ago, lazlo_80 said:

so how many days away are we from the vote? And how many days until Montagliani has to officially give up the head CSA gig?

May 6th is supposed to be the day of the vote and of the election of the new CSA president. However, I have no idea what the exact weekend's timeline is. I doubt it would take place on Friday, but maybe it would on Sunday. 

Regardless, hopefully we hear something (anything???) the week following. 

[matty]

I'm bored who wants to raise like 15k and buy short ad space from a cpl team for thevoyageurs.com

[baulderdash77]

2 hours ago, Macksam said:

When you say MLS caps their teams at 32, you're also making an implication the big TV money ( $1 billion plus) has rolled into the league so no, they don't do it.

TV contracts have peaked.  They will shrink from here unfortunately.  With Cable TV subscriptions now in systematic decline and new viewing platoforms having lower revenue the next deals will be smaller.

Take a look at what's happening to ESPN.    

Their NFL deal costs them 1.9 billion and only brings in 250 million (they use it as a platform to sell bundled cable).  When it's up in 2021 they will be looking to cut their deal in half.

Same goes with MLB and especially NBA.  

MLS rating in the US are too low for the fee they get now.

Unfortunately it's a grim world in sports broadcasting right now.  

 

[lazlo_80]

59 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

TV contracts have peaked.  They will shrink from here unfortunately.  With Cable TV subscriptions now in systematic decline and new viewing platoforms having lower revenue the next deals will be smaller.

Take a look at what's happening to ESPN.    

Their NFL deal costs them 1.9 billion and only brings in 250 million (they use it as a platform to sell bundled cable).  When it's up in 2021 they will be looking to cut their deal in half.

Same goes with MLB and especially NBA.  

MLS rating in the US are too low for the fee they get now.

Unfortunately it's a grim world in sports broadcasting right now.  

 

I don't think that necessarily means team values will dwindle. New markets and most likely more autonomy controlling their own product. Heck look at the NHL. They just charged a ton for a vegas franchise despite a lame national broadcasting contract. The broadcasting valuations hurt the leagues but most of these leagues are controlled by elite business people who have proved time and time again they value financial growth over anything else. 

[Gopherbashi]

OH MY GOD ITS HAPPENING THIS MONTH

[PJSweet]

Calgary Flames are NOT bluffing. They may leave town if their new stadium deal does not get approved. I decided to post this because the Calgary CPL team may also be in jeopardy if the Flames go ahead with this. The Calgary Flames have been the biggest proponents of the CPL since two years ago. There's a lot at stake not only for hockey but for soccer as well.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2017/04/29/flames-arent-bluffing-its-just-a-basic-business-decision

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Unless they are planning to cash in on their NHL investment so they can join a Hamilton team in forming a new Canadian pro hockey league, I'm not following what this article has to do with the thread? It will be interesting to see if their rumoured interest in pro soccer continued after it became clear that the 2026 World Cup couldn't be used to attract public infrastructure money for the CalgaryNext project.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

12 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

TV contracts have peaked.  They will shrink from here unfortunately...

Another way of looking at it is that pro sports leagues are going to find new ways to deliver their product to their consumer base that cut out the middle men such as ESPN and TSN. They'll find a way to make a lot of money out of that, because (with the possible exception of the CFL) there is still plenty of interest among the younger generations.

[Complete Homer]

CSE is all owned by Calgarians/people deeply connected with Calgary via the oil industry who have likely put aside investments with a better ROI to own the Flames/Stampeders/etc. They aren't bailing on their home town (and the 4th largest Canadian market) over a stadium deal

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

It was hard to believe that the Jets and Nordiques would ever be sold as well.

[Oranje]

3 hours ago, PJSweet said:

Calgary Flames are NOT bluffing. They may leave town if their new stadium deal does not get approved. I decided to post this because the Calgary CPL team may also be in jeopardy if the Flames go ahead with this. The Calgary Flames have been the biggest proponents of the CPL since two years ago. There's a lot at stake not only for hockey but for soccer as well.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2017/04/29/flames-arent-bluffing-its-just-a-basic-business-decision

They are bluffing. 

[matty]

3 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Unless they are planning to cash in on their NHL investment so they can join a Hamilton team in forming a new Canadian pro hockey league, I'm not following what this article has to do with the thread? It will be interesting to see if their rumoured interest in pro soccer continued after it became clear that the 2026 World Cup couldn't be used to attract public infrastructure money for the CalgaryNext project.

Seems kind of like a non-story for this thread as the CSE will still own the Stampeders, who are not leaving town. If they're involved this likely doesn't change too much.

Regarding the stadium, I'm guessing they would still be interested since it is a chance to fill dates in a mostly empty stadium and maybe generate some added worth down the road.

2 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Another way of looking at it is that pro sports leagues are going to find new ways to deliver their product to their consumer base that cut out the middle men such as ESPN and TSN. They'll find a way to make a lot of money out of that, because (with the possible exception of the CFL) there is still plenty of interest among the younger generations.

I'm doubtful they're cut them out especially ESPN (aka Disney) and TSN (aka Bell). There's still a great deal of money for all parties even in the age of "Imma watch this one clip on Instagram". I except they'll be a shift towards mobile and premium cable options jointly run by leagues and a sports broadcaster.

Be curious if the CFL/CPL relationship sees an increase in U30 following CFL as soccer has one of the younger fanbases in North America. Also for the record, younger people don't watch baseball.

[Complete Homer]

1 hour ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

It was hard to believe that the Jets and Nordiques would ever be sold as well.

False equivalency. Get back to me when the Flames aren't making a healthy profit margin in a league with uncontrolled salary inflation while the dollar simultaneously tanks

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

15 minutes ago, matty said:

Be curious if the CFL/CPL relationship sees an increase in U30 following CFL as soccer has one of the younger fanbases in North America...

Sharing a stadium with TFC certainly did wonders for the Argos in that sort of regard last summer. Will be interesting to see what happens in Hamilton if Bob Young ever actually does get around to fielding a pro soccer team (after what seems like a decade of talking a good game about doing it), but think it's a case of two very different sports appealing for the most part to different sets of fans. Think hockey is the more natural compliment to soccer in terms of there being a crossover in interest and soccer should be looking to oust CFL and baseball as the main summer sports rather than playing second fiddle to either of them.

[matty]

4 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Sharing a stadium with TFC certainly did wonders for the Argos in that sort of regard last summer. Will be interesting to see what happens in Hamilton if Bob Young ever actually does get around to fielding a pro soccer team, but think it's a case of two very different sports appealing for the most part to different sets of fans. Think hockey is the more natural compliment to soccer in terms of there being a crossover in interest and soccer should be looking to oust CFL and baseball as the main summer sports rather than playing second fiddle to either of them.

I agree they're different sports and don't go together to well, but if there is an interest from CFL teams in doing the CPL, and it's not related to simply bettering soccer in Canada, it's likely at least partly related to trying to share a fanbase. CFL has an aging fanbase and soccer has a young one, wouldn't be shocked if we see CFL owned teams doing a buy a CPL ticket and get a CFL ticket and vise versa.

[Macksam]

16 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

TV contracts have peaked.  They will shrink from here unfortunately.  With Cable TV subscriptions now in systematic decline and new viewing platoforms having lower revenue the next deals will be smaller.

Take a look at what's happening to ESPN.    

Their NFL deal costs them 1.9 billion and only brings in 250 million (they use it as a platform to sell bundled cable).  When it's up in 2021 they will be looking to cut their deal in half.

Same goes with MLB and especially NBA.  

MLS rating in the US are too low for the fee they get now.

Unfortunately it's a grim world in sports broadcasting right now.  

 

The TV bubble bursting is concerning and well known. However, mark my words, these sports leagues will sign live lucrative streaming deals with Netflix in the next decade or sooner to make up for it. The games will be available live with commercials and available up to a week after its initial air date. Whether Netflix offers these games with their original package or charge a little extra for each league is another issue.