Nations League Standings after game vs. USA

[Kent]

11 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Having a similar conversation on a few threads, for me the risk would be having an emotional let-down coming off the US game, and against a "easy" team (and probably the only ones we could get at this point), that a draw would lose us 3 points and a loss, around 8.

But as you say we will see. 

I wouldn't want a friendly against a team that would lose us 8 points for a loss. That would be like having a friendly with Montserrat, which would only get us 2 points for a win. I think we would want to play someone similarly ranked as us so that we could actually get points if we win.

But it's all calculated risk at this point. I'm OK with us not playing a friendly, but not against us skipping out either.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

31 minutes ago, Kent said:

I wouldn't want a friendly against a team that would lose us 8 points for a loss. That would be like having a friendly with Montserrat, which would only get us 2 points for a win. I think we would want to play someone similarly ranked as us so that we could actually get points if we win.

But it's all calculated risk at this point. I'm OK with us not playing a friendly, but not against us skipping out either.

I agree on the opponent, if there was one.

Not sure there are a lot of similar ranked teams available, that would want to play us. 

 

Edit : General question following from that:  Beyond CONCACAF, anybody know how much FIFA rankings actually matter to teams? England could care less for instance but they are in exceptional territory. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[deschamp86]

3 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Edit : Generally question following from that:  Beyond CONCACAF, anybody know how much FIFA rankings actually matter to teams? England could care less for instance but they are in exceptional territory. 

I know it matters to an extent for obtaining work visas in some countries

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

Just now, deschamp86 said:

I know it matters to an extent for obtaining work visas in some countries

True, here for instance. I think it is/was top 50 but you can always get around that by throwing a lot of money at someone and making them an "exceptionally" paid case. 

[Obinna]

Perhaps we want to consider a friendly that we can gain something from, aside from fifa points?

If we play a USVI type of game, it is a guaranteed 2 points, which may be good strategy, but do we gain anything else? Also, isn't it ironic that we would play such a small team in order to avoid playing more small teams? 

We want to win yes, but we want to be challenged at least to some degree. We should be after fifa points but we should use the opportunity for proper prep as well.

Two angles here: 

1. If we are primarily focused on fifa points, then regardless of who we play, perhaps we should do so at home. We need fifa points so we need our home crowd to give us an extra boost. As far as I know we don't gain less points for a home win, so wouldn't it make sense to play at home?

2. Perhaps we should play away in Mexico (but not against Mexico) or at least in Latin America (at altitude). Not to get ahead of myself, but if we make the semi final I believe that is where we will play, probably against Honduras. We could go down there early to adjust to the altitude and play a game against a Nicaragua or similar to pick up a few fifa points while we are at it. Just an idea...

Fifa points or not though, we should be playing more friendlies anyways. If anything our situation may simply force the csa's hand to do so. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by Obinna

[dyslexic nam]

For the purpose of points, what we need is a team that 

- is over rated

- is on the decline but whose FIFA points have not caught up with their descent

- has a coach that has lost the dressing room.

 

So, basically, like America.

 

Oh, and it would be good if the team had a couple of star players with wives/girlfriends who are expected to birth a child right around the window.  

Edited October 18, 2019 by dyslexic nam

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

41 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Perhaps we want to consider a friendly that we can gain something from, aside from fifa points?

I wholly agree in principle.  I just am not sure it applies until June of next year.  The boost for the program in playing in a Hex with 4/5  beatable teams would be beyond what any group of friendlies can do.  

Feels like we don't have the luxury of development without risking what we are developing for, unfortunately. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford
repeat clause

[BrennanFan]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Perhaps we want to consider a friendly that we can gain something from, aside from fifa points?

 

I have to disagree.  We need to be absolutely pragmatic about FIFA points until we make the Hex.

If we win in Orlando, we will be in the driver's seat, and depending on our lead we might decide not to play friendlies at all in March.

If we tie, we should look for weaker teams and play at home.  Nicaragua is a good option.  Trinidad is on a decline. 

If we lose, we will need to risk points playing Mexico, Chile, Czech Rep, anyone in the top 40 willing to play us really. 

Unfortunately this means we will have no proper friendlies for experimentation at all in 2020.  The Hex starts the very next FIFA window, Sept 2020.

[deschamp86]

1 hour ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

True, here for instance. I think it is/was top 50 but you can always get around that by throwing a lot of money at someone and making them an "exceptionally" paid case. 

Or buy a passport like Doneil

[deschamp86]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Perhaps we want to consider a friendly that we can gain something from, aside from fifa points?

If we play a USVI type of game, it is a guaranteed 2 points, which may be good strategy, but do we gain anything else? Also, isn't it ironic that we would play such a small team in order to avoid playing more small teams? 

We want to win yes, but we want to be challenged at least to some degree. We should be after fifa points but we should use the opportunity for proper prep as well.

Can always do a Camp Poutine. Would give a chance to test out some CPL players, and there would still be a solid core of MLS players that get regular time for full strength national team. But, I think we are all aware that that won't happen

[deschamp86]

22 minutes ago, deschamp86 said:

Can always do a Camp Poutine. Would give a chance to test out some CPL players, and there would still be a solid core of MLS players that get regular time for full strength national team. But, I think we are all aware that that won't happen

Was wondering what a Camp Poutine lineup would look like so I made this up (Everyone's opinions will differ of course, but this is actually a pretty solid lineup that could still beat some weaker CONCACAF teams to get some points)

Subs:

Hamilton
Bair
Teibert
Borges
Johnson
Fraser
Adekugbe
Jakovic
Didic
ZBG
Ranjitsingh
Carducci

[Kent]

So I just looked up which teams from League A have the same part of the November window open (in terms of Nations League requirements, I don't know about if they already have friendlies scheduled). The teams are...

Martinique (so no points could be won or lost if we played them)
Panama (one of our direct rivals for that 6th spot)
Curacao (one of our direct rivals for that 6th spot)

Someone was mentioning before that you can't play games in two different confederations in the same window, so I assume that would limit us to CONCACAF countries, but I don't know. Maybe there is a European team that has that window open? Is that even possible? Seems unlikely with Euro qualifying going on, and South America is tough no matter who the opponent would be, even if they are available.

[Kent]

Maybe we just grab an available minnow from League C to give a game to Halifax or Victoria and see how well they support the team.

[Obinna]

10 minutes ago, Kent said:

Maybe we just grab an available minnow from League C to give a game to Halifax or Victoria and see how well they support the team.

I like that and to blend this with the camp poutine idea, have a camp out on Vancouver island. Get some cpl players involved, get the MLS guys involved. Play a beatable team from our region at the end of the camp.

We pick up a couple fifa points with a home crowd behind us, we keep some fringe players engaged, we take a look at a few cpl guys, we give a cpl market some national team exposure, we play at a small, intimate venue suitable for the number of fans such a friendly would draw (better than playing at BC place) seems like a good idea. 

And I say Vancouver Island over Halifax for climate. You can play and train in the rain, but not in the snow (not on that grass field anyways - which will be disassembled in the winter if I am not mistaken).

Edited October 18, 2019 by Obinna

[dyslexic nam]

Honestly, and I am biased as a Maritimier, but I think the HFX crowd for a Nat game would be amazing.  Mind you, Nova Scotia in November can be a bit... breezy, but if the weather was decent, I think people would be amazed at the kind of crowd you would get - especially if some traveling V's came to provide some veteran leadership. 

[Obinna]

2 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Honestly, and I am biased as a Maritimier, but I think the HFX crowd for a Nat game would be amazing.  Mind you, Nova Scotia in November can be a bit... breezy, but if the weather was decent, I think people would be amazed at the kind of crowd you would get - especially if some traveling V's came to provide some veteran leadership. 

At some point I would love to see Wanderers ground host a camp and a friendly. A pre-gold cup 2021 camp in Halifax would be pretty neat, with a send off game at the end.

[TOCanada115]

Also need to keep in consideration that the game before is in Orlando in that window. I don’t think they are going to fly to west coast of Canada, and then back to their clubs in Europe. More likely would be a game in Florida on neutral grounds. Halifax would make more sense. All the MLS guys seasons are over after, so no problem there. 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

El Salvador's technical director Carlos De los Cobos has stated to the media that the they want to play 2 to 3 friendlies in 2020 so that they can surpass us in the rankings.

http://www.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/carlos-de-los-cobos-pide-partidos-con-selecciones-de-mayor-nivel-para-subir-en-ranking-fifa/650441/2019/

The players also feel confident because they play a home twice in CNL in November and they feel they are much stronger at home.

_______________

http://elsiglo.com.pa/deportes/pensar-repechaje/24142279

Panama coach will continue working to move up the rankings but no longer speaking optimistically.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[king1010]

10 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

El Salvador's technical director Carlos De los Cobos has stated to the media that the they want to play 2 to 3 friendlies in 2020 so that they can surpass us in the rankings.

http://www.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/carlos-de-los-cobos-pide-partidos-con-selecciones-de-mayor-nivel-para-subir-en-ranking-fifa/650441/2019/

The players also feel confident because they play a home twice in CNL in November and they feel they are much stronger at home.

_______________

http://elsiglo.com.pa/deportes/pensar-repechaje/24142279

Panama coach will continue working to move up the rankings but no longer speaking optimistically.

They're assuming we don't make the Nations Leagues Semis or even Finals. 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

4 minutes ago, king1010 said:

They're assuming we don't make the Nations Leagues Semis or even Finals. 

They may be assuming they finish first in their group; otherwise they would have Gold Cup playoff games to play.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

18 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

El Salvador's technical director Carlos De los Cobos has stated to the media that the they want to play 2 to 3 friendlies in 2020 so that they can surpass us in the rankings.

http://www.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/carlos-de-los-cobos-pide-partidos-con-selecciones-de-mayor-nivel-para-subir-en-ranking-fifa/650441/2019/

The players also fee confident because they play a home twice and they feel they are much stronger at home.

If we beat the States, their 2 or 3 friendlies will need a very high difference in ranking. We would be 15-16 points ahead and to get 7-8 points, they would need a 300-ish point difference.  That puts them up against Uruguay, Spain or Croatia-type teams. 

Edited October 18, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[king1010]

17 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

They may be assuming they finish first in their group; otherwise they would have Gold Cup playoff games to play.

But they're assuming if they win 3 friendlies they surpass us in the rankings. If we make it to the CNL Semis or even win a semi final game they probably wouldn't have the points to pass us?

[BrennanFan]

1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

El Salvador's technical director Carlos De los Cobos has stated to the media that the they want to play 2 to 3 friendlies in 2020 so that they can surpass us in the rankings.

http://www.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/carlos-de-los-cobos-pide-partidos-con-selecciones-de-mayor-nivel-para-subir-en-ranking-fifa/650441/2019/

The players also feel confident because they play a home twice in CNL in November and they feel they are much stronger at home.

_______________

http://elsiglo.com.pa/deportes/pensar-repechaje/24142279

Panama coach will continue working to move up the rankings but no longer speaking optimistically.

Yes, but to be precise, De Los Cobos (ELS coach) says he will be asking the El Salvador Federation to schedule 2-3 friendlies against high ranked teams in order to catch us.  He says "Canada is doing their work and they're affecting us".

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

2 hours ago, king1010 said:

But they're assuming if they win 3 friendlies they surpass us in the rankings. If we make it to the CNL Semis or even win a semi final game they probably wouldn't have the points to pass us?

Well http://twitter.com/2010MisterChip and his spreadsheet say they have a chance.

He gives a thorough breakdown of the situation (all in Spanish).

He also puts us at 1339 not 1340.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwnU_UXweHk

He says:

Top 4 are mathematically in.

Short of an improbable number of defeats, or "calamitous errors" as he says , Honduras will remain in the top 6.

The fight is between Canada, El Salvador, Curaçao & Panama. He dismisses Haiti.

Starting at the 17 minute mark he starts looking at future scenarios based on the results in November and later.

 

Honduras:

-Their game against Martinique on November 14th means nothing. They have already qualified to both the Gold Cup and the CNL final tournament in June. With Martinique there are no FIFA ranking points on the line either.

- According to Mr, Chip, if they win at home vs T&T, "lo tiene hecho". They're in the Hex.

 

At the 18 minute mark he looks at us and direct rivals in November.

Canada: 1356 for a win. 1331 with a loss.

El Salvador: 1346 with two wins. 1296 with two loses.

@king1010 if we lose to the USA in November and El Salvador win both of their November games, we are in very serious trouble - our Hex chances are on life support. At worst, we would be 15 points behind El Salvador and depending on goal difference (after the USA plays Cuba), we may be out of the CNL final round in June. Playing catch-up with only friendlies would be an enormous task.

If we draw the USA in November:

We are still in serious trouble. El Salvador would be at 1346 and we would be at 1344. Yes, that means we make the CNL final round but on 10 points in our group. Mexico and Honduras are both on track to collect 12 points in their respective groups - let us assume this. Nobody in group D can catch that total. (Costa Rica & Curaçao can grab 8, Haiti only 5). This means we play whoever had the worst goal difference between Honduras and Mexico in their respective groups. http://res.cloudinary.com/concacaf-production/image/upload/v1567616650/nationsleague-prod/assets/CONCACAF_Nations_League_2018-2020_ENG.pdf

Our path to the Hex would then rely on a win vs Mexico or Honduras in June. Those June games would be hosted in the USA according to Jorge Salomón (FENAFUTH president) as reported by Honduran tabloid Diez: http://www.diez.hn/laseleccion/1326365-498/formato-liga-de-naciones-concacaf-honduras-semifinales-final-four (A win vs Honduras on "neutral ground" to gain entry to the Hex? What could go wrong!)  

Curaçao can get 1343 with a win vs Costa Rica or could drop to 1308 with a loss. Curaçao become a major factor if they win because that would also put them into the CNL final round.

If Panama beat Mexico, they would be at 1347 and become a factor again.They will likely play Bolivia at home in November in a friendly right after:

http://www.lostiempos.com/deportes/futbol-int/20191016/amistoso-bolivia-supera-haiti-rompe-mala-racha-1-ano-ganar

So if Panama win both their November games, they are back in the race for sure.

Haiti have become a non-factor after their draw vs Costa Rica and a loss in a friendly vs Bolivia (in Bolivia).

Random aside: I actually think Haiti's friendly broke FIFA rules because the direct flights from MIA to VVI are at least 6hrs 45 minutes long. You can't get from Nassau, Bahamas to Santa Cruz de la Sierra in 5 hours or fewer. (or am I missing something @Blackdude ) http://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/regulations-on-the-status-and-transfer-of-players-june-2019.pdf?cloudid=ao68trzk4bbaezlipx9u

1 hour ago, BrennanFan said:

Yes, but to be precise, De Los Cobos (ELS coach) says he will be asking the El Salvador Federation to schedule 2-3 friendlies against high ranked teams in order to catch us.  He says "Canada is doing their work and they're affecting us".

Yes, so we need to continue to do our work and get a win once again vs the USA. Anything less puts our chances of making the Hex in serious jeopardy. Even with the win, others can catch us.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Obinna]

Playing high ranked teams is not a bad strategy, especially if you play them at home. If you lose you only drop a few points and even a tie would yield a decent number of points, let alone a win.

We have talked about playing a weak team to secure 2-3 points, but a draw against a good team would perhaps yield more points, not to mention that playing better teams is better for our development, generally speaking.