Olympique_de_Marseille Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Obinna said: to secure 2-3 points, The thing is, those theoretical March friendlies or even worse, Camp Poutine January or February friendlies mean so little compared to the points at play in November (or possibly June). If we win in November, it is better for the program to simply try to qualify to the Olympics in March. We don't have the squad depth to securely go after a team that will give us real points in a friendly during the March window if we let our top U23 guys play in Guadalajara. If we lose in November, we likely go all in for the Olympics because we will likely be screwed anyways in terms of our Hex chances. Mexico beating Panama, Costa Rica beating Curaçao, El Salvador dropping points to the D.R. or Montserrat will do SO MUCH more to help us than any March friendlies, no matter the opponent. Edited October 18, 2019 by Olympique_de_Marseille Obinna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyslexic nam Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Let’s just win out from now until 2022. Obinna, Ivanovski94 and BrennanFan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrennanFan Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said: If we draw the USA in November: We are still in serious trouble. El Salvador would be at 1346 and we would be at 1344. Yes, that means we make the CNL final round but on 10 points in our group. Mexico and Honduras are both on track to collect 12 points in their respective groups - let us assume this. Nobody in group D can catch that total. (Costa Rica & Curaçao can grab 8, Haiti only 5). This means we play whoever had the worst goal difference between Honduras and Mexico in their respective groups. http://res.cloudinary.com/concacaf-production/image/upload/v1567616650/nationsleague-prod/assets/CONCACAF_Nations_League_2018-2020_ENG.pdf Our path to the Hex would then rely on a win vs Mexico or Honduras in June. Those June games would be hosted in the USA according to Jorge Salomón (FENAFUTH president) as reported by Honduran tabloid Diez: http://www.diez.hn/laseleccion/1326365-498/formato-liga-de-naciones-concacaf-honduras-semifinales-final-four (A win vs Honduras on "neutral ground" to gain entry to the Hex? What could go wrong!) Curaçao can get 1343 with a win vs Costa Rica or could drop to 1308 with a loss. Curaçao become a major factor if they win because that would also put them into the CNL final round. If Panama beat Mexico, they would be at 1347 and become a factor again.They will likely play Bolivia at home in November in a friendly right after: http://www.lostiempos.com/deportes/futbol-int/20191016/amistoso-bolivia-supera-haiti-rompe-mala-racha-1-ano-ganar So if Panama win both their November games, they are back in the race for sure. A draw is the most likely outcome for us, and we can qualify with a draw. Mexico is +6 right now (3 goals ahead of Honduras), and they have 2 games to play including a home game against Bermuda. That goal differential is going to go through the roof. If we make it to the CNL finals, we can count on playing Honduras. El Salvador is not a good side. They're not going to beat any good team in a friendly. Even if they earn 15 points through friendlies in March and June (which is insane), for a total of 1361 points, we can still catch them. Assume we win 2 reasonably easy friendlies in March. That's 6 points. 1350 total. Beating Honduras in the CNL semi is worth 12 points. 1362 total. Neutral venue against Honduras is totally winnable. AND. Even if we lose to Honduras, we get a second crack at a big 12+ points in the 3rd place game against Costa Rica or Curacao. And remember a loss in the CNL finals does not cost us any points. 2 kicks at the can. Almost too good to be true. Conclusion: A draw against the states is a good result for us and leaves us in a position to qualify. Edited October 18, 2019 by BrennanFan lamptern, Obinna and king1010 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympique_de_Marseille Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, BrennanFan said: A draw is the most likely outcome for us...Assume we win 2 reasonably easy friendlies in March. That's 6 points. 1350 total. -We won't schedule two friendlies in March that are that winnable. We need to try and get to the Olympics. That means letting good players go to Guadalajara and I doubt the CSA will do it. Conclusion: A draw against the USA is a good result that puts our fate in our own hands if & only if Mexico beat or draw Panama, Costa Rica beat Curaçao and El Salvador don't win both their November games. xabuep2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrennanFan Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said: -We won't schedule two friendlies in March that are that winnable. We need to try and get to the Olympics. That means letting good players go to Guadalajara and I doubt the CSA will do it. Conclusion: A draw against the USA is a good result that puts our fate in our own hands if & only if Mexico beat or draw Panama, Costa Rica beat Curaçao and El Salvador don't win both their November games. I get your position, and it's reasonable. A CSA staffer personally told me the CSA was looking for friendlies in November and March. Take it for what it's worth. Who knows what will happen and our track record at finding friendlies is garbage. Still, I just don't see a situation where we are neck and neck with Panama, El Salvador and Curacao, and they all play friendlies in March while we do not. I don't see the CSA being that incompetent. I'm not overly concerned about El Salvador and Panama since they're not in good form and they cant make the CNL finals. On the other hand, Curacao are in my view favourites to beat Costa Rica at home, and if they do, they have everything to play for in June. This thing will go down to the wire. May the soccer Gods have mercy on us all. Edited October 18, 2019 by BrennanFan dyslexic nam and Olympique_de_Marseille 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apbsmith Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) Could one of the Wizards (compliment) crunch the #'s for me? What's the ~ points Panama would get if they beat Mexico and beat *Bolivia* in their friendly next window. I thought they were done but with both teams ahead of them I feel that's quite a bit of points up for grabs? Panama was pretty close to pulling out an away tie a few nights ago vs Mexico. Mostly just curious, Thx. Edited October 19, 2019 by apbsmith Bolivia not UAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplebanana Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, apbsmith said: Could one of the Wizards (compliment) crunch the #'s for me? What's the ~ points Panama would get if they beat Mexico and beat UAE in their friendly next window. I thought they were done but with both teams ahead of them I feel that's quite a bit of points up for grabs? Panama was pretty close to pulling out an away tie a few nights ago vs Mexico. Mostly just curious, Thx. Panama beating Mexico in CNL = 18.76 Panama beating UAE in friendly = 5.47 Obinna and apbsmith 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplebanana Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Maybe it's the Friday afternoon crazy talk in my head, but I would love to see a friendly against China in November. They play in Dubai on Nov 14 but it looks like they're free for the rest of the window. Put them in Vancouver or Toronto, and that'd be a big draw to put some money into CSA coffers. I landed on them when I looked at the Elo rankings, trying to find a team that is high FIFA ranked but low Elo ranking (the opposite of us). They are about the same as us FIFA points wise, so we'd get 5 for a win. Selfishly, as a Canadian who is described by his Chinese colleagues as 'hardcore Canadian', but is in fact of Chinese ethnicity, I would also like it as an opportunity to put to bed the question of 'who would you cheer for?' Because the answer is 'I hope Canada wins 8-1, just so that they can feel the pain I felt in 2012'. Ivanovski94, SpecialK, Floortom and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympique_de_Marseille Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, maplebanana said: Panama beating Mexico in CNL = 18.76 Panama beating UAE in friendly = 5.47 Change UAE to Bolivia please. That is the new opponent. Assume Bolivia beat Chile first so we get the highest possible total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympique_de_Marseille Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, maplebanana said: Maybe it's the Friday afternoon crazy talk in my head, but I would love to see a friendly against China in November. They play in Dubai on Nov 14 but it looks like they're free for the rest of the window. That's crazy talk. You can't play in two confederations unless you will fly 5 hours or fewer. (Although Haiti seems to have broken that rule this month). maplebanana 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 We aren’t thinking CONCACAFy enough. For March can’t we just work out a deal with our new 2026 co-hosting best buddies Mexico where we play two friendlies with them and we fix it so they take the fall to give us a higher ranking? dyslexic nam, Bison44, MtlMario and 1 other 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyslexic nam Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Kent said: We aren’t thinking CONCACAFy enough. For March can’t we just work out a deal with our new 2026 co-hosting best buddies Mexico where we play two friendlies with them and we fix it so they take the fall to give us a higher ranking? On a slightly less sinister note, what would happen if an opponent fielded a B team in what is still an official match? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrennanFan Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) FIFA Regulations regarding the release of players: "Representative teams shall play the two matches within an international window on the territory of the same confederation, with the only exception of inter-continental play-off matches. If at least one of the two matches is a friendly, they can be played in two different confederations only if the distance between the venues does not exceed a total of five flight hours, according to the official schedule of the airline, and two time-zones." (as noted above by @Olympique_de_Marseille) According to this, we cannot play China as they play Syria in the UAE on Nov 14 - the flight time to North America would be over 5 hours. For the same reason, Panama cannot play the UAE. The UAE play in Hanoi on Nov 14, the flight time is more than 5 hours to Panama. EDIT: Olympique, you beat me to it. The rule is what it is. It really limits our options. Edited October 19, 2019 by BrennanFan Olympique_de_Marseille 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrennanFan Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 The quickest flight I can find from Panama City to La Paz is 7 hours. Unless Panama charters a plane, the CSA may be in a position to make a complaint to FIFA to challenge the match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympique_de_Marseille Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, BrennanFan said: FIFA Regulations regarding the release of players: "Representative teams shall play the two matches within an international window on the territory of the same confederation, with the only exception of inter-continental play-off matches. If at least one of the two matches is a friendly, they can be played in two different confederations only if the distance between the venues does not exceed a total of five flight hours, according to the official schedule of the airline, and two time-zones." (as noted above by @Olympique_de_Marseille) According to this, we cannot play China as they play Syria in the UAE on Nov 14 - the flight time to North America would be over 5 hours. For the same reason, Panama cannot play the UAE. The UAE play in Hanoi on Nov 14, the flight time is more than 5 hours to Panama. EDIT: Olympique, you beat me to it. The rule is what it is. It really limits our options. Bolivia seem to be in a habit of breaking that rule; I'm not sure how they got away with inviting Haiti when they had to travel 7+ hours to go to Santa Cruz de la Sierra Bolivia. Next month they fly from Santiago Chile to Panama City right? I think that also breaks the 5 hour mark because that flight is 7 hours. Dodgy. Edited October 19, 2019 by Olympique_de_Marseille Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrennanFan Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said: Bolivia seem to be in a habit of breaking that rule; I'm not sure how they got away with inviting Haiti when they had to travel 7+ hours to go to Santa Cruz de la Sierra Bolivia. Next month they fly from Santiago Chile to Panama City right? I think that also breaks the 5 hour mark because that flight is 7 hours. Dodgy. Rules are broken all the time. FIFA does not usually step in unless an official complaint is filed by a national federation, and it can be any federation affected, not just the teams playing. I went through this last cycle when Bolivia fielded an ineligible player against Peru. It was Chile who ended up making the official complaint to FIFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lansdude Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) Lol at our chances of making the World Cup being limited by the time it takes to fly somewhere for a friendly match. Love these absurd, byzantine rules. Kafka could run FIFA. Edited October 19, 2019 by Lansdude Olympique_de_Marseille, NVsoccer and Ivanovski94 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkuseisLoose Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 We’re going to have to hire a Concorde so we can play teams in other confederations. Olympique_de_Marseille 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplebanana Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said: That's crazy talk. You can't play in two confederations unless you will fly 5 hours or fewer. (Although Haiti seems to have broken that rule this month). Damn. What an odd rule. I still want to face China one day though. I want to see blood and tears! I guess we're stuck with Curacao, Panama, BVI, Guatemala, or Sint Maarten in CONCACAF. I wonder if two teams met halfway on a neutral ground, would that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrennanFan Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, maplebanana said: Damn. What an odd rule. I still want to face China one day though. I want to see blood and tears! I guess we're stuck with Curacao, Panama, BVI, Guatemala, or Sint Maarten in CONCACAF. I wonder if two teams met halfway on a neutral ground, would that count? Yes, halfway neutral ground friendlies are fine, as long as the air travel between cities is less than 5 hours for each team. Halfway between Orlando and Syria (where China is playing in Nov) is Ireland. 8 hour flight. Halfway between Orlando and Hanoi Vietnam (where UAE are playing in Nov) is basically the North Pole (I guess the earth is round after all). A straight line across the pacific ocean gets you close to Hawaii, which is a 10 hour flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bertuzzi44 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 6 hours ago, dyslexic nam said: Let’s just win out from now until 2022. Inclusive Kent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gigi riva Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 16 hours ago, dyslexic nam said: Honestly, and I am biased as a Maritimier, but I think the HFX crowd for a Nat game would be amazing. Mind you, Nova Scotia in November can be a bit... breezy, but if the weather was decent, I think people would be amazed at the kind of crowd you would get - especially if some traveling V's came to provide some veteran leadership. Halifax would awesome for a team Canada game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xabuep2 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 El Salvador will play vs Bolivia a friendly macth next November 23 in USA. Both teams have the same ranking points: 1327 and the same position 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympique_de_Marseille Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 (edited) 52 minutes ago, xabuep2 said: El Salvador will play vs Bolivia a friendly macth next November 23 in USA. Both teams have the same ranking points: 1327 and the same position 72 -El Salvador have won twice in Washington DC this year. -The Washington DC area has the biggest Bolivian diaspora of all the US cities. -DC United just got eliminated from the playoffs so their stadium is free. So obviously my guess is that they will put the game in DC! The potential gain in points is very small though http://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/fifa-world-ranking-technical-explanation-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a Edited October 20, 2019 by Olympique_de_Marseille xabuep2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floortom Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 10 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said: -El Salvador have won twice in Washington DC this year. -The Washington DC area has the biggest Bolivian diaspora of all the US cities. -DC United just got eliminated from the playoffs so their stadium is free. So obviously my guess is that they will put the game in DC! The potential gain in points is very small though http://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/fifa-world-ranking-technical-explanation-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a How many points for a win or a loss ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now