Canadian Division 1A - Why We Need It

[madmonte]

Just to keep the topic going before it dies...is there any chance on throwing Kelowna into the conversation for cities that might be viable?  If we are throwing cities like Halifax and Moncton...I might as well try?

 

I don't know Kelowna REALLY well having only been there about 3 or 4 times in my life.  Going there again this summer.  The only viable stadium I can think of offhand would be the Apple Bowl.  It's one of those that has a track surrounding the pitch, and not a HUGE capacity, like 2000-3000 if I recall, not sure?

 

But let's talk about the supporting population.  

 

1) Kelowna, at first glance, has a population of 117,000 people.  

 

2) However, West Kelowna chose in 2008 not to amalgamate.  Kelowna's last metropolitan population clocked in at 191,000 according to statscan.

 

3) But then, the Okanagan Valley is a cluster of small towns all up the lake.  If you take JUST the area from Penticton (approx 45 minutes from downtown Kelowna) to Vernon (also approx 45 minutes from downtown Kelowna) your population jumps to about 340,000-350,000 based on latest 2014 numbers.  

 

4) In the process of a 50+ million dollar airport expansion that will make the airport CAPABLE (although there are no plans) of taking on some of the world's biggest planes, meaning in the future if the population continues to expand, it will be capable of direct flights to Europe.

 

5) 5th fastest growing metro population as of 2011 census, behind Calgary, Saskatoon, Edmonton and Regina (not in that order)

 

So again, at a glance, Kelowna looks like a smaller market than say, Moncton, but actually by 2030 it might be closer to say, Victoria, who I'd guess has maybe a population base of say 400,000 within an hour drive, if you included Duncan, for example?

 

Can you guys that are actually Kelowna bound help me out here?  Is the population too "retirement age"?  Do Vernon and Penticton hate Kelowna and wouldn't go there even if they did have a team?  Hook me up with the down and dirty facts.

[masster]

With the stories out of Moncton saying they are struggling to sell tickets to the Women's World Cup, what makes us think it could support a team?

[Jason]

Just to keep the topic going before it dies...is there any chance on throwing Kelowna into the conversation for cities that might be viable?  If we are throwing cities like Halifax and Moncton...I might as well try?

 

I don't know Kelowna REALLY well having only been there about 3 or 4 times in my life.  Going there again this summer.  The only viable stadium I can think of offhand would be the Apple Bowl.  It's one of those that has a track surrounding the pitch, and not a HUGE capacity, like 2000-3000 if I recall, not sure?

 

But let's talk about the supporting population.  

 

1) Kelowna, at first glance, has a population of 117,000 people.  

 

2) However, West Kelowna chose in 2008 not to amalgamate.  Kelowna's last metropolitan population clocked in at 191,000 according to statscan.

 

3) But then, the Okanagan Valley is a cluster of small towns all up the lake.  If you take JUST the area from Penticton (approx 45 minutes from downtown Kelowna) to Vernon (also approx 45 minutes from downtown Kelowna) your population jumps to about 340,000-350,000 based on latest 2014 numbers.  

 

4) In the process of a 50+ million dollar airport expansion that will make the airport CAPABLE (although there are no plans) of taking on some of the world's biggest planes, meaning in the future if the population continues to expand, it will be capable of direct flights to Europe.

 

5) 5th fastest growing metro population as of 2011 census, behind Calgary, Saskatoon, Edmonton and Regina (not in that order)

 

So again, at a glance, Kelowna looks like a smaller market than say, Moncton, but actually by 2030 it might be closer to say, Victoria, who I'd guess has maybe a population base of say 400,000 within an hour drive, if you included Duncan, for example?

 

Can you guys that are actually Kelowna bound help me out here?  Is the population too "retirement age"?  Do Vernon and Penticton hate Kelowna and wouldn't go there even if they did have a team?  Hook me up with the down and dirty facts.

I am not an expert in the Okanagan by any means, but I visited there last year and I did stop by to check out the Apple Bowl.  The one really notable thing is that it's not that easy to get around there.   They seem to have this pesky lake you always have to deal with :-)  Most highways are two lanes not divided and are pretty hilly and twisted.  So it's not super easy to drive from Penticton to Kelowna on a weeknight after work and make it to a 7pm match for example.  So clearly Kelowna and West Kelowna have the bulk of the population, relying on outlying cities to show up in numbers is a bit of a stretch.  

 

The Apple Bowl can hold as many as 6000 I think if you include temporary stands.  The main permanent stand holds maybe 3000.  It does have a track around it.  It's a decent but dated facility, but it's not really what I'd consider a pro level stadium.  It did not appear to have many modern conveniences or any of the new style of revenue opportunities (boxes, special seating, advertising on the Jumbotron, etc).   Could it work?  Sure, if you threw a bit of $ into doing some renos it's possible.  The location seemed okay to me (somewhat central), but that's a better question for a local.  

 

If you get the right owner and fix up the stadium, it could work.  I can't envision it would be a phenomenal success, but it could be viable.  But I wouldn't project too far into the future.  Metro population in 15 years doesn't mean much today, and nobody is going to finance a team with a 15 year business plan.

 

If it was my $, I'd pick Kelowna before Moncton.  They can't draw for WWC and after one good CFL game, the second one was a dud.  They have had a chance to prove they deserve a shot but they aren't showing a lot of evidence they could support it.

 

Jason

[Jason]

wow people, how about we walk before we run.

 

Definitely need the big markets, but who says that can't happen in 2 to 3 years down the line?

 

Imagine the league kicks off without a team in Van, Edm, Tor, Ott or Mtl has moderate success for the first 2 to 3 years then grabs the NASL teams, then maybe 2 years later Team from Van & Mtl set up? 

 

I think if the leagues growth is into the major markets it stands a better chance of survival, just need to get it off the ground and expect some lean years. Here's hoping there are some deeeeeep pockets and patient minds involved, 

 

I think you would need a Toronto club, and it would need to be called the Blizzard.  It's just hard to put a league together without big markets, and I view Toronto as being far more viable than Vancouver or Montreal.  Could the league work, get sponsors and TV deal with none of the top 3 markets?  I think that's tough.  

 

Jason

[the Humberlands]

I think you would need a Toronto club, and it would need to be called the Blizzard.  It's just hard to put a league together without big markets...

Exactly what I was thinking. It's just spin.  The Toronto team can very well be TFC2, but name them the Blizzard and all of a sudden they appear to be different. Just don't know if TFC/MLSE has the naming rights.

 

But if it were a 2nd independent team, I'd support them flat out.

[Keegan]

Toronto can definitely support a second team, Keegan.  I'm more worried about Montreal's ability to have a team sticking the finger at Montreal Impact and having 5000-10000 fans coming out in support.  

 

When they are talking about 8-10 markets, without FC Montreal, I can't see Montreal working if it is included, but I guess we'll see...

(Vancouver is half way between...if I was to vote if Vancouver could support a 2nd team, I'd vote yes, but it would REALLY depend on how it was marketed)

 

The idea of having reserve teams in the new Canadian league is they are a bit of a safety net.  3 squads right off the bat that don't NEED to operate at a profit (and are therefore sustainable, and won't fold in the first couple of seasons, because they have a momma bear)

 

I've never seen a second Vancouver or Montreal team discussed.  I think the only "two team" city should be Toronto.  Quebec City should have a team though IMO.

[madmonte]

I am not an expert in the Okanagan by any means, but I visited there last year and I did stop by to check out the Apple Bowl.  The one really notable thing is that it's not that easy to get around there.   They seem to have this pesky lake you always have to deal with :-)  Most highways are two lanes not divided and are pretty hilly and twisted.  So it's not super easy to drive from Penticton to Kelowna on a weeknight after work and make it to a 7pm match for example.  So clearly Kelowna and West Kelowna have the bulk of the population, relying on outlying cities to show up in numbers is a bit of a stretch.  

 

Yeah I've made that drive and I know what you mean.  It's a 45 minutes that can feel like 2 hours...

[tmcmurph]

Yeah I've made that drive and I know what you mean.  It's a 45 minutes that can feel like 2 hours...

 

I grew up in Kelowna and go back for visits several times a year. It is a lot of older retired people (Hockey & CFL distant second). To say it is hard to get around the valley is the under statement. The road to Vernon has had some huge improvements but the one to Penticton is not good despite the new bridge. 

 

That and any team based in Kelowna would not be drawing fans from Vernon or Penticton due to the regional sports rivalry (V's / Rockets / etc). Even if they called it the "Okanagan whatever" I don't think it would wash. 

 

Nice idea and I'm sure the players would love living and training there but I doubt it work work. 

[ThatDaveCh]

With the stories out of Moncton saying they are struggling to sell tickets to the Women's World Cup, what makes us think it could support a team?

Heck, 50,000 tickets sold for Saturday's WWC opener, and FCE can't draw 10% of that.

[madmonte]

See TRM that's the big thing I was wondering about...would Vernon etc even support Kelowna.  Thanks for answering that.  So then you are basically down to Kelowna's metro and a few outlier towns that are say, between Penticton and Kelowna that might pick up on it.  So still over 200k people that might be interested, but that puts us to a market that is way smaller (and older) than other markets like Halifax, Victoria etc.

 

Thanks for the info guys.

[Jason]

See TRM that's the big thing I was wondering about...would Vernon etc even support Kelowna.  Thanks for answering that.  So then you are basically down to Kelowna's metro and a few outlier towns that are say, between Penticton and Kelowna that might pick up on it.  So still over 200k people that might be interested, but that puts us to a market that is way smaller (and older) than other markets like Halifax, Victoria etc.

 

Thanks for the info guys.

I would think if you're a big soccer fan and live in Vernon or Pentiction, you might consider supporting a nearby club despite city rivalries.  Just like some Calgarians are fond of FCE because of our lack of options.  But that number would be so tiny it would barely be measurable and would not reach into the average sports fans.

 

Jason

[shermanator]

Toronto might be able to support a second team due to growing dissatisfaction against TFC, especially those who hate the corporate nature of the club. 

 

I don't think there is any way Montreal could support a second team. They can't even support the Impact as it is! 10k for last night's game is really quite pathetic especially considering how well the Impact drew for the CCL run.

[zeelaw]

Toronto might be able to support a second team due to growing dissatisfaction against TFC, especially those who hate the corporate nature of the club. 

<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Me.

[theaub]

I'd definitely buy seasons to a Toronto team

 

Just not sure where they would play since no chance in hell they would get BMO.  Lamport?

[tarnado1555362291]

Lamport, what a local rivalry that would be in the V's Cup.... The Dufferin Derby

[-Hammer-]

Heck, 50,000 tickets sold for Saturday's WWC opener, and FCE can't draw 10% of that.

 

Yeah, for the Women's team who are contenders and rock stars. How about the Men's team? We'll never know because our Men's team never leaves BMO.

[Califax]

I'll say this being a Haligonian, we try not to go to Moncton.

 

People from Moncton come to Halifax as it's way more interesting.

 

I'm not saying a team would be sustainable in Halifax because I think without a world cup to bolster it's mystique or something similar, it wouldn't draw more than 3000 and that's pushing it. Moncton never will. It's not a soccer town, it's not a multicultural town, it's not a town that markets it's self particularly well. 

 

It throws money to get stuff and does a great job at it. But one offs, not long term. 

 

If Halifax lands a CFL team, yes. Otherwise, nothing east of QC is remotely financially viable. 

[gator]

I'll say this being a Haligonian, we try not to go to Moncton.

 

People from Moncton come to Halifax as it's way more interesting.

 

I'm not saying a team would be sustainable in Halifax because I think without a world cup to bolster it's mystique or something similar, it wouldn't draw more than 3000 and that's pushing it. Moncton never will. It's not a soccer town, it's not a multicultural town, it's not a town that markets it's self particularly well. 

 

It throws money to get stuff and does a great job at it. But one offs, not long term. 

 

If Halifax lands a CFL team, yes. Otherwise, nothing east of QC is remotely financially viable. 

 

 

Bring back The Nova Scotia Clippers!

[BradMack]

I'll say this being a Haligonian, we try not to go to Moncton.

 

People from Moncton come to Halifax as it's way more interesting.

 

I'm not saying a team would be sustainable in Halifax because I think without a world cup to bolster it's mystique or something similar, it wouldn't draw more than 3000 and that's pushing it. Moncton never will. It's not a soccer town, it's not a multicultural town, it's not a town that markets it's self particularly well. 

 

It throws money to get stuff and does a great job at it. But one offs, not long term. 

 

If Halifax lands a CFL team, yes. Otherwise, nothing east of QC is remotely financially viable. 

I live in Wolfville during the school year and Pictou County during the summer's but I would drive to Halifax to see a Pro team a few times a year.

[TFC07]

When comes to Toronto, I would assume this team would play either suburban Toronto (like North York) or GTA town like Vaughan (Ontario Soccer Centre planning to build 5K  seat stadium while other GTA towns are flirting with building an outdoor stadium to host community events).   

 

I agree that Canadian league would need big 3 markets to be legitimate Canadian league.  

[TFC07]

Toronto might be able to support a second team due to growing dissatisfaction against TFC, especially those who hate the corporate nature of the club. 

 

I don't think there is any way Montreal could support a second team. They can't even support the Impact as it is! 10k for last night's game is really quite pathetic especially considering how well the Impact drew for the CCL run.

 

Maybe Impact would leave MLS to join Canadian league if they keep struggling in MLS?  

[madmonte]

Anything is possible, I've thought of that scenario too.  If that does happen though, don't expect similar attendances.  Say they average 14000 this year...that's people paying money to see the likes of Kaka, David Villa, and a league that is getting better by the year...

 

If the Canadian league eventually gets to a decent level where they have a few big names too, that's great, but it won't start that way I'm sure?

[baulderdash77]

A pro team probably needs 7,500 attendance long term to be stable.  So if it's only a 5,000 seat stadium then that probably won't cut it.  There's a reason why they're looking at all these CFL stadiums - they're large enough with built in infrastructure to be sustainable long term.  The current USL Pro teams are only ok because the MLS teams are supporting them.  I don't think that's the way you build a 1A league.

 

While Toronto has a large enough market to support a Canadian 1A team; I don't think Montreal or Vancouver have that kind of soccer interest, combined with the fact that they haven't alienated a large part of the local soccer fans over the years.  Plus Toronto has Lamport Stadium which could be brought up to standard.

 

Also I think that the league will absorb the NASL teams or markets, especially the Eskimo's

 

I think the likely markets are:

Toronto (at Lamport)

Hamilton

Calgary

Edmonton

Ottawa

Regina

Winnipeg

1 or both of London (guessing) or Quebec City (guessing)

 

That covers 8 of the top 10 media markets with some presence and provides for some regional rivalries which can cut travel costs quite a bit.  With 8 teams you can construct a 28 game April to October schedule with 2 home games against each team.  Also that kind of schedule could mean 1 Friday game, Saturday afternoon, Saturday night and Sunday night games.  That's lot's of content for TSN.  

 

In fact it can be organized so that each CFL market pretty much gets a home game on it's away game weekend.

[CDNFootballer]

Kelowna is not the type of market that would work for this proposed league, too small.

 

 

A pro team probably needs 7,500 attendance long term to be stable.  So if it's only a 5,000 seat stadium then that probably won't cut it.  There's a reason why they're looking at all these CFL stadiums - they're large enough with built in infrastructure to be sustainable long term.  The current USL Pro teams are only ok because the MLS teams are supporting them.  I don't think that's the way you build a 1A league.

 

While Toronto has a large enough market to support a Canadian 1A team; I don't think Montreal or Vancouver have that kind of soccer interest, combined with the fact that they haven't alienated a large part of the local soccer fans over the years.  Plus Toronto has Lamport Stadium which could be brought up to standard.

 

Also I think that the league will absorb the NASL teams or markets, especially the Eskimo's

 

I think the likely markets are:

Toronto (at Lamport)

Hamilton

Calgary

Edmonton

Ottawa

Regina

Winnipeg

1 or both of London (guessing) or Quebec City (guessing)

 

That covers 8 of the top 10 media markets with some presence and provides for some regional rivalries which can cut travel costs quite a bit.  With 8 teams you can construct a 28 game April to October schedule with 2 home games against each team.  Also that kind of schedule could mean 1 Friday game, Saturday afternoon, Saturday night and Sunday night games.  That's lot's of content for TSN.  

 

In fact it can be organized so that each CFL market pretty much gets a home game on it's away game weekend.

NASL's Edmonton and likely Ottawa wouldn't be in this league to start. Maybe after a few seasons Ottawa may choose to join it if it gets traction, but Edmonton has an additional investment in NASL as they hold 33% B stocks in the league. They're not trading games against markets like New York Cosmos, Tampa Bay Rowdies, etc for Regina, London, etc either, just not happening.

 

I'd put in their place on your list Victoria and Surrey BC. Surrey would be a great market with its size but the big problem for them is they have no stadium at all for a club. They have been talking of building a 10K multi purpose stadium for years and could get one built for 2017 possibly.

[masster]

Heck, 50,000 tickets sold for Saturday's WWC opener, and FCE can't draw 10% of that.

That is my point. If Moncton, won't draw for a large event, what are the chances they can draw for an unheralded mens team?