US Virgin Islands-Canada match thread (R)

[aloyol]

4 minutes ago, Keegan said:

Not true.. I’ve worked out at least 9 teams prior to the first round being able to finish perfect but maybe that number has dwindled since.  I know for a fact it’s still at least 6 teams (Curaçao, Belize, Jamaica/ES, Canada, Haiti, St Lucia).  

 

Actually it would be the opposite.. for us to not go through on four 1-0 wins would take a serious miracle since it would mean some minnows would have to win all their games as well and 7 teams with a perfect record (not happening).  The goal difference will likely only matter for teams that drop points.  Obviously we can’t risk anything since we could draw either of our last two matches.

@Kent is spot on if you read his posts.

Yup, I stand corrected. Sorry.

Thanks to @Kent

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

10 minutes ago, Keegan said:

This isn’t how it works at all.  If you make group A you only play group A.. no more minnows.

I am talking about the Draw for A-League of the Nations League. Assuming they split into 3 different pots to decide the groups for league A it could be:

Pot A: Mexico, Costa Rice, Panama, Honduras

Pot B: USA, T&T, Q1, Q2

Pot C; Q3, Q4, Q5, Q6

Theoretically one group of league A could have both Mexico and USA.

[Kent]

12 minutes ago, admin said:

Ok. This whole thing is kind of confusing. Am I not understanding how this works?

As it reads now, +4 would put us in the bottom of group A qualification after game one.

As I understand it we would not make group A on four 1-0 wins without serious miracles taking place.

Yes, you are correct that +4 right now just gets a team into the last position of League A. But the way the games were drawn go something like this. This will get complicated.

Virtually every team plays a pot A, B, C, and D team. There are 8 Pot A teams, 8 Pot D teams, and 9 each of B and C. Since there are more Pot B and C teams, Belize (B) and Bahamas (C) don't have to play a Pot A team.

Obviously the pot A teams are the most likely to go 4-0-0, but even so, only 4 of the 8 pot A teams can go 4-0-0 at a maximum because they play against each other. (Canada vs French Guiana, El Salvador vs Jamaica, Cuba vs Haiti, and Guadeloupe vs Martinique).

That means, for more than 4 to go 4-0-0, you need pot B, C, or D to make up the numbers. I think we can all assume it's extraordinarily unlikely for a Pot C or D team to win all 4 of their games (Dominica is the highest ranked pot C team, and they already have a draw. In fact, out of 8 games played for Pot C teams, only 2 have won (Aruba and Saint Lucia, with Grenada yet to play their first game).

So really, you need Pot B teams to run the table. Obviously at least 4 pot B teams are out of the running because they would have had to have lost to the perfect Pot A teams. So you are left with 4 Pot B teams that will have to beat a Pot A team (and it has to be one of the Pot A teams that lost to a Pot A team that ran the table) and also those same Pot B teams have to win their games against other Pot B teams, so if 2 Pot B teams that pull off an upset against a Pot A team play each other, one of them (at least) gets knocked out of the running for going 4-0-0. Then you also have Belize as was mentioned earlier, they have a chance without having to beat a Pot A team.

[Admin]

Ah, I see. 

Ooops.  Awake now

LOL

Definately drank too much last night. 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, aloyol said:

The worst to me is in the NFL when they put the knee down instead of playing...can't stand that.

They take knees in football to avoid injuries when the plays do not matter at all

[dyslexic nam]

16 minutes ago, Kent said:

Yes, you are correct that +4 right now just gets a team into the last position of League A. But the way the games were drawn go something like this. This will get complicated.

Virtually every team plays a pot A, B, C, and D team. There are 8 Pot A teams, 8 Pot D teams, and 9 each of B and C. Since there are more Pot B and C teams, Belize (B) and Bahamas (C) don't have to play a Pot A team.

Obviously the pot A teams are the most likely to go 4-0-0, but even so, only 4 of the 8 pot A teams can go 4-0-0 at a maximum because they play against each other. (Canada vs French Guiana, El Salvador vs Jamaica, Cuba vs Haiti, and Guadeloupe vs Martinique).

That means, for more than 4 to go 4-0-0, you need pot B, C, or D to make up the numbers. I think we can all assume it's extraordinarily unlikely for a Pot C or D team to win all 4 of their games (Dominica is the highest ranked pot C team, and they already have a draw. In fact, out of 8 games played for Pot C teams, only 2 have won (Aruba and Saint Lucia, with Grenada yet to play their first game).

So really, you need Pot B teams to run the table. Obviously at least 4 pot B teams are out of the running because they would have had to have lost to the perfect Pot A teams. So you are left with 4 Pot B teams that will have to beat a Pot A team (and it has to be one of the Pot A teams that lost to a Pot A team that ran the table) and also those same Pot B teams have to win their games against other Pot B teams, so if 2 Pot B teams that pull off an upset against a Pot A team play each other, one of them (at least) gets knocked out of the running for going 4-0-0. Then you also have Belize as was mentioned earlier, they have a chance without having to beat a Pot A team.

That's a lot of pot.

[El Diego]

Honestly, the more I think about the XI that Herdman put out, the more I chuckle. Imagine France with Lemar and Dembele as full backs, or Germany with Sane and Reus. I love it.

[theaub]

There is no way the pots will be based on WCQ results, they are definitely going to be based on the CONCACAF rating system (which had a Mexico/US/Costa Rica/Panama top four when they did the draw).

Canada was in 7th in that, so winning all four matches will assure us of being Pot B, as goal differential is not factored into the calculation.

e: updated rankings here.  There is zero chance we aren't top eight if we win out.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/rankings/mens-national-team

[Kent]

42 minutes ago, theaub said:

There is no way the pots will be based on WCQ results, they are definitely going to be based on the CONCACAF rating system (which had a Mexico/US/Costa Rica/Panama top four when they did the draw).

Canada was in 7th in that, so winning all four matches will assure us of being Pot B, as goal differential is not factored into the calculation.

e: updated rankings here.  There is zero chance we aren't top eight if we win out.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/rankings/mens-national-team

Speaking of these rankings, wasn't it mentioned that they would be updated after every game? Or am I getting confused. I was pretty sure either the CONCACAF rankings or the new FIFA rankings said that, but neither of them are giving us real time rankings on their websites.

[Zem]

11 minutes ago, Kent said:

Speaking of these rankings, wasn't it mentioned that they would be updated after every game? Or am I getting confused. I was pretty sure either the CONCACAF rankings or the new FIFA rankings said that, but neither of them are giving us real time rankings on their websites.

The FIFA rankings are still going to be updated monthly, I'd assume the Concacaf index will be the same.

[Unnamed Trialist]

I am so not going to read any of those posts about how the Nations League works, I am going to stay dumb about it. And I am fine with my decision. Wake me up for the quarter finals guys.

[Admin]

28 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I am so not going to read any of those posts about how the Nations League works, I am going to stay dumb about it. And I am fine with my decision. Wake me up for the quarter finals guys.

Yeah, I totally misread stuff and posted a pile of horseshit earlier. 

I am now on the ignorance is bliss train.

[baulderdash77]

Just now, admin said:

Yeah, I totally misread stuff and posted a pile of horseshit earlier. 

I am now on the ignorance is bliss train.

If we win every game in CONCACAF Nations League we will win it.

I know that and that’s all I really know.  Just win baby!

[jtpc]

Another positive about these 4 qualification matches is that without Panama and Honduras participating until League A begins, we'll be a few points closer to them by the time our 4 matches are finished. I'm assuming our match with French Guiana won't result in any FIFA ranking points, but all 4 matches should give us CONCACAF ranking points.

I'm hoping the top 6 that advance to League A are all FIFA members, or that if a non-FIFA member advances (French Guiana, Martinique, Guadeloupe), they don't get drawn into our group (not getting FIFA points in our Gold Cup win over French Guiana still lingers today). With League A only being groups of 3 (I'm assuming each country will play the 2 other countries in their group home and away), it would be frustrating to only have 2 matches out of your 4 count towards FIFA ranking points.

[Nerf]

Regardless of goal difference being necessary or not, I want to see the new blood get goals if only to improve their stats and excitement to play internationally.  And I am tired of watching Canada win matches against minnows by one or two goals. We want to be taken seriously, so play to win big. Let's stop having to be put into the position of playing these smaller nations in the first place.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, jtpc said:

Another positive about these 4 qualification matches is that without Panama and Honduras participating until League A begins, we'll be a few points closer to them by the time our 4 matches are finished. I'm assuming our match with French Guiana won't result in any FIFA ranking points, but all 4 matches should give us CONCACAF ranking points.

I'm hoping the top 6 that advance to League A are all FIFA members, or that if a non-FIFA member advances (French Guiana, Martinique, Guadeloupe), they don't get drawn into our group (not getting FIFA points in our Gold Cup win over French Guiana still lingers today). With League A only being groups of 3 (I'm assuming each country will play the 2 other countries in their group home and away), it would be frustrating to only have 2 matches out of your 4 count towards FIFA ranking points.

To be perfectly honest, if we assume we will automatically qualify for the 2026 World Cup as a host, our FIFA ranking is going to be 100% useless for the next four years. I believe typically they use the rankings from right after the previous World Cup to determine the draw for the upcoming World Cup. So even though the draw isn’t until July next year, they will likely use the rankings that are currently known now. Then for things like the Gold Cup and Nations League, the CONCACAF rankings will be used.

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

4 hours ago, theaub said:

There is no way the pots will be based on WCQ results, they are definitely going to be based on the CONCACAF rating system (which had a Mexico/US/Costa Rica/Panama top four when they did the draw).

Canada was in 7th in that, so winning all four matches will assure us of being Pot B, as goal differential is not factored into the calculation.

e: updated rankings here.  There is zero chance we aren't top eight if we win out.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/rankings/mens-national-team

I wouldn’t be so sure... Unless of course Concacaf has already publicized how they will separate the pots it could be any way. Remember, while we are playing meaningful games, the other nations don’t get to play any official matches. So it could be a disadvantage to the Hex teams to go by the ranking system. Concacaf is often surprising. 

[Blackdude]

2 minutes ago, BenFisk'sBiggestFan said:

I wouldn’t be so sure... Unless of course Concacaf has already publicized how they will separate the pots it could be any way. Remember, while we are playing meaningful games, the other nations don’t get to play any official matches. So it could be a disadvantage to the Hex teams to go by the ranking system. Concacaf is often surprising. 

I'm guessing that the top 4 Hex teams will be in Pot A and the other 2 will be in Pot B. But who knows? I think CONCACAF will give the benefit of the doubt to the Hex teams.

[Yoginess]

13 hours ago, aloyol said:

The worst to me is in the NFL when they put the knee down instead of playing...can't stand that.

okay. well taking a knee in football isn't really so much about "showing respect for your opponent" as much as it's just the safest way to ensure the other team doesn't get the ball and you can run down the clock. It's the Football equivalent of the corner flag. 

[Yoginess]

10 hours ago, BenFisk'sBiggestFan said:

Here is the thing about Goal Difference. We want Canada to finish top 2 in the Qualifiers. Remember, there are 6 teams from the hex waiting for us. I imagine the top 4 from the Hex will make up Pot A for the draw. The two remaining Hex teams will likely join the top 2 qualifying teams in pot B. And finally, teams 3-6 of qualifying will probably make up pot C. We don’t want to be in Pot C or we could face both Mexico and the USA. 

I am not 100% sure of the format, but this problem (or something similar), could happen to us if we aren’t top 2 in qualifying.

This is a great point! We've been a PotC for the last couple cycles. If we were PotBs I think we would have made it to the HEX at least once. But you have to earn your PotB place.

[Toje]

Just some random information.  There are still 3 players who are active who played in the Canadian U23 14-0 win over the USVI in 2003. 

Atiba Hutchinson, Elliot Godfrey (7th tier in England) and David Masciantonio (6th tier in Italy).

[behrouz]

On 9/9/2018 at 11:54 PM, Norrin Radd said:

 

Thanks  

[jpg75]

6 hours ago, Toje said:

Elliot Godfrey (7th tier in England) and David Masciantonio (6th tier in Italy).

Now those are a couple of lifers who love the sport! Godfrey has been a lower leagues and non-league player most of his career and Masciantonio iirc might have made it as high as Serie C2 (back when C was broken down into C1 and C2) when i was tracking a decade ago. 

[aloyol]

8 hours ago, Yoginess said:

okay. well taking a knee in football isn't really so much about "showing respect for your opponent" as much as it's just the safest way to ensure the other team doesn't get the ball and you can run down the clock. It's the Football equivalent of the corner flag. 

I think @jpg75 made the same point but I disagree. When a player goes to the corner flag, the ball is still in play and the other team can still recover the ball. It's clearly unspectacular but we are still playing soccer when the ball is in the corner and the player still have to use some skills to protect the ball. Knee down is killing the play right away. I see a big difference there and it's why I'm not a fan of it.

Anyway, I was mainly saying that I don't like this particular part of the game but I understand why they do it.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, aloyol said:

I think @jpg75 made the same point but I disagree. When a player goes to the corner flag, the ball is still in play and the other team can still recover the ball. It's clearly unspectacular but we are still playing soccer when the ball is in the corner and the player still have to use some skills to protect the ball. Knee down is killing the play right away. I see a big difference there and it's why I'm not a fan of it.

Anyway, I was mainly saying that I don't like this particular part of the game but I understand why they do it.

Yeah, there isn't a real equivalent in soccer. The real equivalent would be an imaginary situation where a team boots the ball out of bounds, and there is only 1 ball and you have to wait for the ball to be returned from the top row of the stands while the clock still runs, and then that same team gets to throw it in to themselves without anyone able to defend the guy receiving the pass from the throw in, only for him to boot it out again. That's what is happening at the end of football games.