US Virgin Islands-Canada match thread (R)

[hamiltonfan]

1 hour ago, aloyol said:

French Guiana is our pot A opponent.

Haiti vs Cuba

Guadeloupe vs Martinique

El Salvador vs Jamaica

All to be played on the last day.

We lucked out with out Pot A draw! Thanks for sharing @aloyol and @Kent

In summary, goal differential is very important if we draw a single match. If we pick up all possible points, we are likely in the Top 6 regardless of GD. 

[Admin]

7 minutes ago, BCM1555362349 said:

For now, but I think @Kent clearly showed we're making too much of goal differential. We win our games, we're through. We draw one, we're very, very likely to be through. We lose, we don't deserve to go through.

I don't see how it is possible to make too much of goal differential when the that is the only metric keeping you in the top six, and other teams have scored +4, +5 and +11 and have further minnows to crush.

We have a history of dopping the ball so to speak against the likes of Martinique, St Kitts. ect....

Jamaica, El Salvador, Haiti and possibly Nicarauga have the capacity to what we did to a small Island. Thankfully the game pair ups help. Haiti plays Cuba for example.

I am not worried, I just don't think winning these games with low scores is a good idea at all. 

[aloyol]

7 minutes ago, KW519 said:

Run the ball, fumble, other team runs a 2 minute drill to perfection, coach get's fired, team misses playoffs etc... There's just not enough logic behind running a play when you're in a position to control the outcome of that game. QB's take shots all game from 300lb linebackers too, that's kind of a sucky move calling them cowards after they get laid out all game. 

Good on Canada for running their score up though. Football is one of the few sports where goal differential comes into play on a regular basis. I remember watching Utd lose the league to City because City had a better differential.

 

 

Like I said, I understand all the ramifications and why teams are using it, I just think it shouldn't be allowed (penalty, no time running out of the clock if your QB kneeled).

It's the nature of the play I find coward in the context of the sport, not the QB's who are doing it. I understand why they do it.

[shamrock]

3 hours ago, Keegan said:

USVI knows what they’re up against vs even moderate sized Caribbean nations.  I’m sure their goal was to keep us under 10 and collect shirts for their Rec rooms.  

I'd love to have that two-goal David-debut  shirt!

[aloyol]

1 minute ago, admin said:

I don't see how it is possible to make too much of goal differential when the that is the only metric keeping you in the top six, and other teams have scored +4, +5 and +11 and have further minnows to crush.

We have a history of dopping the ball so to speak against the likes of Martinique, St Kitts. ect....

Jamaica, El Salvador, Haiti and possibly Nicarauga have the capacity to what we did to a small Island. Thankfully the game pair ups help. Haiti plays Cuba for example.

I am not worried, I just don't think winning these games with low scores is a good idea at all. 

If we win all our games, we are going through no matter what.

If we tie/lose one, then goal differential may matter.

But I really think we should expect 4 wins, specially with our game against our Pot A opponent being played at home.

[Admin]

1 minute ago, aloyol said:

If we win all our games, we are going through no matter what.

If we tie/lose one, then goal differential may matter.

But I really think we should expect 4 wins, specially with our game against our Pot A opponent being played at home.

If we win our remaining games 1-0 we could easiliy be in the B pool, I don't call that going through. 

 

[shamrock]

1 hour ago, Snowcrash said:

Here's a picture of Larin and David together after the game.  Larin looks like a tank.

https://twitter.com/Mavromaras/status/1038946337600012296/photo/1

On a slightly different note, wonder if David can squeeze out a few more years of growth to gain an inch or two.

Quite the bulldozer indeed. Sure he's taller as well, but boy did he bulk up in a couple of years time. 

[Keegan]

29 minutes ago, theaub said:

Sorry but the clear loser here is baseball where pitchers get all sad and throw 95 MPH at a guy when he shows some emotion.

And then all these tough guys come running from all angles to watch two guys shove each other.  

[Soro17]

29 minutes ago, admin said:

I don't see how it is possible to make too much of goal differential when the that is the only metric keeping you in the top six, and other teams have scored +4, +5 and +11 and have further minnows to crush.

We have a history of dopping the ball so to speak against the likes of Martinique, St Kitts. ect....

Jamaica, El Salvador, Haiti and possibly Nicarauga have the capacity to what we did to a small Island. Thankfully the game pair ups help. Haiti plays Cuba for example.

I am not worried, I just don't think winning these games with low scores is a good idea at all. 

Looking ahead, I expect Canada, El Salvador, Haiti and Curacao [from pot b] to make it through undefeated. 

Jamaica's final match is on the road in El Salvador. They had their chance, at home, against small island yesterday and only won 4-0. Jamaica's roster without their English imports is weak. 

Cuba's final match is on the road in Haiti. Defections aside, Cuba doesn't travel well generally and Haiti is a tough out at home. 

Guadaloupe will lose at Curacao on matchday 3.

Martinique will lose at Guadaloupe on matchday 4.

French Guiana will of course lose to us on matchday 4. 

[Kent]

44 minutes ago, admin said:

If we win our remaining games 1-0 we could easiliy be in the B pool, I don't call that going through. 

 

I agree with your overall point that we should score as many as we can, but I disagree with the assertion that we could end up in Pool B with 4 wins. I think that's incredibly unlikely to happen, as mentioned in my post with the analysis of what that would look like.

[PopePouri]

57 minutes ago, shamrock said:

Quite the bulldozer indeed. Sure he's taller as well, but boy did he bulk up in a couple of years time. 

Having a more mobile forward helps counter-balance bulldozers like Cavallini and Larin. Kinda happy he's a little smaller.

[Admin]

39 minutes ago, Kent said:

I agree with your overall point that we should score as many as we can, but I disagree with the assertion that we could end up in Pool B with 4 wins. I think that's incredibly unlikely to happen, as mentioned in my post with the analysis of what that would look like.

If that is the case, it is only because we scored 8 in the first game. 

[Alex]

1 hour ago, Soro17 said:

Looking ahead, I expect Canada, El Salvador, Haiti and Curacao [from pot b] to make it through undefeated. 

Jamaica's final match is on the road in El Salvador. They had their chance, at home, against small island yesterday and only won 4-0. Jamaica's roster without their English imports is weak. 

Cuba's final match is on the road in Haiti. Defections aside, Cuba doesn't travel well generally and Haiti is a tough out at home. 

Guadaloupe will lose at Curacao on matchday 3.

Martinique will lose at Guadaloupe on matchday 4.

French Guiana will of course lose to us on matchday 4. 

Another team that can easily win all 4 is Belize. They don’t play a pot A team at all because of the odd number for pot B and C teams. 

They beat Bahamas 4-0, they go to Montserrat, home to Puerto Rico and away to Guyana. 

[aloyol]

1 hour ago, admin said:

If we win our remaining games 1-0 we could easiliy be in the B pool, I don't call that going through. 

 

How?

There was 8 teams in Pot A including Canada. Since all Pot A teams are playing one game against another Pot A team, that means that at least 4 teams won't have a perfect record. So, if Canada wins against FG, that means we'll have a perfect record, so we should at least be in the top 5 (there's a possibility that Belize could go through because they won't be playing a Pot A team).

I'm pretty sure it's impossible for Canada not to be top 6 with 4 wins.

[aloyol]

21 minutes ago, admin said:

If that is the case, it is only because we scored 8 in the first game. 

No, winning your 4 games 1-0 would be enough for any teams in the current format.

[Keegan]

Just now, aloyol said:

No, winning your 4 games 1-0 would be enough for any teams in the current format.

It would be highly improbable for Canada to win 4 games and not be top 3.  The only way that wouldn’t happen is if teams from B, C or D won all 4 games (which is highly unlikely).

[Admin]

3 minutes ago, aloyol said:

No, winning your 4 games 1-0 would be enough for any teams in the current format.

Ok. This whole thing is kind of confusing. Am I not understanding how this works?

As it reads now, +4 would put us in the bottom of group A qualification after game one.

As I understand it we would not make group A on four 1-0 wins without serious miracles taking place.

[aloyol]

2 minutes ago, Keegan said:

It would be highly improbable for Canada to win 4 games and not be top 3.  The only way that wouldn’t happen is if teams from B, C or D won all 4 games (which is highly unlikely).

Except for Belize (pot B team that isn't playing a Pot A team), only 4 teams in the whole format can have a perfect record.

So, 4 wins is top 5 minimum and that's enough for qualification to League A and GC.

[jpg75]

2 hours ago, aloyol said:

I know that you can loose the ball. That's my point, play the game instead of putting the knee down.

Of course, it's the smart thing to do but IMO it shouldn't be allowed. I hate to see the clock run down for a 1-2 minutes with a QB kneeling 3 times. 

Ok, so now the QB drops back and hands it to the RB who takes a knee. It won't change anything. Would you mandate that soccer players can't dribble to the corner (not that i think that's an effective tactic)? or that a pitcher not be allowed to walk a batter in the 9th inning? It's sport. Tactical periodization a wise man one said ?

[aloyol]

4 minutes ago, admin said:

Ok. This whole thing is kind of confusing. Am I not understanding how this works?

As it reads now, +4 would put us in the bottom of group A qualification after game one.

As I understand it we would not make group A on four 1-0 wins without serious miracles taking place.

See my response to Keegan. Taking into consideration all the matchups, only 5 teams in the whole qualifying process can have a perfect record. So, 4 wins is enough to finish top 6 (qualification to GC and League A).

[Soro17]

22 minutes ago, Alex said:

Another team that can easily win all 4 is Belize. They don’t play a pot A team at all because of the odd number for pot B and C teams. 

They beat Bahamas 4-0, they go to Montserrat, home to Puerto Rico and away to Guyana. 

Right-o. I see Neon Dean McCaulay potted another one for them. 

[Kent]

22 minutes ago, aloyol said:

See my response to Keegan. Taking into consideration all the matchups, only 5 teams in the whole qualifying process can have a perfect record. So, 4 wins is enough to finish top 6 (qualification to GC and League A).

Theoretically, more than 5 teams can go 4-0-0 (see my post from earlier that showed how 9 teams can do it). But it's unlikely.

[Keegan]

9 minutes ago, aloyol said:

See my response to Keegan. Taking into consideration all the matchups, only 5 teams in the whole qualifying process can have a perfect record. So, 4 wins is enough to finish top 6 (qualification to GC and League A).

Not true.. I’ve worked out at least 9 teams prior to the first round being able to finish perfect but maybe that number has dwindled since.  I know for a fact it’s still at least 6 teams (Curaçao, Belize, Jamaica/ES, Canada, Haiti, St Lucia).  

 

15 minutes ago, admin said:

Ok. This whole thing is kind of confusing. Am I not understanding how this works?

As it reads now, +4 would put us in the bottom of group A qualification after game one.

As I understand it we would not make group A on four 1-0 wins without serious miracles taking place.

Actually it would be the opposite.. for us to not go through on four 1-0 wins would take a serious miracle since it would mean some minnows would have to win all their games as well and 7 teams with a perfect record (not happening).  The goal difference will likely only matter for teams that drop points.  Obviously we can’t risk anything since we could draw either of our last two matches.

@Kent is spot on if you read his posts.

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

Here is the thing about Goal Difference. We want Canada to finish top 2 in the Qualifiers. Remember, there are 6 teams from the hex waiting for us. I imagine the top 4 from the Hex will make up Pot A for the draw. The two remaining Hex teams will likely join the top 2 qualifying teams in pot B. And finally, teams 3-6 of qualifying will probably make up pot C. We don’t want to be in Pot C or we could face both Mexico and the USA. 

I am not 100% sure of the format, but this problem (or something similar), could happen to us if we aren’t top 2 in qualifying.

[Keegan]

1 minute ago, BenFisk'sBiggestFan said:

Here is the thing about Goal Difference. We want Canada to finish top 2 in the Qualifiers. Remember, there are 6 teams from the hex waiting for us. I imagine the top 4 from the Hex will make up Pot A for the draw. The two remaining Hex teams will likely join the top 2 qualifying teams in pot B. And finally, teams 3-6 of qualifying will probably make up pot C. We don’t want to be in Pot C or we could face both Mexico and the USA. 

I am not 100% sure of the format, but this problem (or something similar), could happen to us if we aren’t top 2 in qualifying.

I get what you’re saying here, I think you’re right that finishing with higher goals and thus higher in this league is crucial for this reason.