2024 Voyageurs Cup

[Kingston]

2 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

There's some aspects that will keep changing as the number of teams increases (#of rounds, where teams start, etc) but there's parts of it they should lock. Flipping back to 2 legs was unnecessary, for instance.

I'd actually prefer to see the whole thing be two legs. I think the pros of two legs outweigh the pros of one leg.  But there isn't a perfect answer.

[Watchmen]

5 minutes ago, Kingston said:

I'd actually prefer to see the whole thing be two legs. I think the pros of two legs outweigh the pros of one leg.  But there isn't a perfect answer.

I know, and that's a separate debate. My main point is still having them pick a format and stick with it. Make it so people know well in advance. Don't wait until February of the following year to announce the format for that year.

[Kent]

9 hours ago, Kingston said:

The index didn't factor in to Forge and York drawing each other.

I know, but the fact that they decided they didn't want to make pots is just giving them more room to fix/design the match ups. I'm not going to say it was definitely all predetermined, but things start to stack up.

1. The draw is closed to the public.
2. We have this new index, but we aren't going to use it to determine match ups.
3. Oh look at that, we happened to have the amateur team from Vancouver Island playing the only other team that is on Vancouver Island.
4. Lucky you L1O champs, you don't have to go to Halifax, you get to go to the closest team to you (well, York would technically be a few kms closer).
5. Lucky you Halifax, you don't have to travel to Ontario. The closest team to you will come to you instead.

For number 1 above, why not show the draw unless you don't want there to actually be a draw? For number 2, why bother going to the trouble of creating this new index if it's not going to be used to keep highly rated teams from playing each other in the first round? Then you have what look to be pretty convenient "draws" on top of that, even if the odds of those convenient draws aren't terribly long.

Edited February 27 by Kent
I'm always an idiot about Vancouver Island. It's not Victoria Island.

[phil03]

6 hours ago, Kingston said:

The teams get re-drawn for the semis to eliminate the geographic factor.  Otherwise the Whitecaps would always have a straight shot to the final only ever having to face L1 or CPL teams.

So, barring upsets, there will be three MLS teams and one CPL team going into a hat for a random draw for the semis.

I know, but my inner Impact fan would have also liked ATO and an MLS team to face each other early on (altough my inner ATO fan prefer how it is right now) and the draw setting TFC and the Whitecaps to face in quarter final would have been ideal, altough I am admitedly unsure if it was even possible.

[Kingston]

20 hours ago, Kent said:

I know, but the fact that they decided they didn't want to make pots is just giving them more room to fix/design the match ups. I'm not going to say it was definitely all predetermined, but things start to stack up.

1. The draw is closed to the public.
2. We have this new index, but we aren't going to use it to determine match ups.
3. Oh look at that, we happened to have the amateur team from Vancouver Island playing the only other team that is on Vancouver Island.
4. Lucky you L1O champs, you don't have to go to Halifax, you get to go to the closest team to you (well, York would technically be a few kms closer).
5. Lucky you Halifax, you don't have to travel to Ontario. The closest team to you will come to you instead.

For number 1 above, why not show the draw unless you don't want there to actually be a draw? For number 2, why bother going to the trouble of creating this new index if it's not going to be used to keep highly rated teams from playing each other in the first round? Then you have what look to be pretty convenient "draws" on top of that, even if the odds of those convenient draws aren't terribly long.

I agree a public draw would be best.  If the fix was in, at least it's a pretty benign fix that seems intended to help teams overall rather than pave the way for one particular team.

Edited February 27 by Kingston
There is actually a Victoria Island up in the arctic. So you aren't just making places up entirely. :)

[Kingston]

Some fun with numbers as the start date drifts slowly closer.

I'm very curious how the return of the two leg matchup will affect the outcome of interleague games.

There will be at least two CPL-D3 games.  The all time record is 10-2-1 (W-L-D) for the CPL but it is 6-1 in single leg matchups.  The initial games are both single leg, although an upset would guarantee at least two more CPL-D3 games in the next round.

There will be at least four MLS-CPL games (probably more), all in two leg matchups.  The all time record is 16-2-2 for MLS but 13-1 in single leg matchups.

The historic pattern for two leg matchups was for the favoured team to field something of a B line up for the first game and then do what they needed to do to win the matchup on the return leg.  In single leg matchups the favoured team has tended to field a strong side and the results have been far more lop-sided in those matchups.  So we could have some more interesting game results with the two leg format.

(There will also be the second ever MLS-D3 game.  It will be a single match.  The all time record is 1-0 for MLS.)

Given which teams are hosting the first round games and also the fact that we will see 19 matches this year (second most ever) we have a chance for a really good total attendance.  We should certainly break the 100 000 mark for only the fourth time and I think 2019's all time record of 156 268 is breakable.  The highest per game average (14 295 in 2016) is realistically out reach until the CPL teams start drawing much bigger crowds.

 

[Watchmen]

3 hours ago, Kingston said:

Some fun with numbers as the start date drifts slowly closer.

I'm very curious how the return of the two leg matchup will affect the outcome of interleague games.

There will be at least two CPL-D3 games.  The all time record is 10-2-1 (W-L-D) for the CPL but it is 6-1 in single leg matchups.  The initial games are both single leg, although an upset would guarantee at least two more CPL-D3 games in the next round.

There will be at least four MLS-CPL games (probably more), all in two leg matchups.  The all time record is 16-2-2 for MLS but 13-1 in single leg matchups.

The historic pattern for two leg matchups was for the favoured team to field something of a B line up for the first game and then do what they needed to do to win the matchup on the return leg.  In single leg matchups the favoured team has tended to field a strong side and the results have been far more lop-sided in those matchups.  So we could have some more interesting game results with the two leg format.

(There will also be the second ever MLS-D3 game.  It will be a single match.  The all time record is 1-0 for MLS.)

Given which teams are hosting the first round games and also the fact that we will see 19 matches this year (second most ever) we have a chance for a really good total attendance.  We should certainly break the 100 000 mark for only the fourth time and I think 2019's all time record of 156 268 is breakable.  The highest per game average (14 295 in 2016) is realistically out reach until the CPL teams start drawing much bigger crowds.

 

If you take the combined CPL-D3 and MLS-CPL "lower seed upset" results, it's 4 losses and 3 draws against the lower seeds. And I bring this up because the Dos Santos brothers have combined for 3 loses and 1 draw (and no wins). So as long as your team isn't managed by a Dos Santos, you're probably in decent shape as the higher seed.

Edited March 5 by Watchmen

[phil03]

I like the statistical analysis but I would like to present my own with a few tweaks:

I. I don't think the ties when it's a two-leg series count since, as someone else mentioned, it will usually lead to the team going from the highest level of play to having something of an experimental squad in one of the two games when they feel confident enough that they'd win the whole thing. IMO two-legged ties should be taken as a whole and be counted as equivalent to one game.

II. I think it's worth considering a fourth stat: losses in overtime and penalties.

III. Finally, when looking at how well teams from lower of play have done I think there is another category worth considering: clubs from tier II leagues in the American system. That means the Fury, of course, but also Edmonton, the Impact, and the Whitecaps in their days in such a league.

From the start of the Canadian Championship as a truly separate competition in 2008 to the last entry of a non-MLS club playing in the American pyramid in 2020 clashes the all-time records of such clubs against MLS opponents is 14-2-4-0, for both single games and ties put together. All instances of clubs from the NASL or the USL getting a result were from the first three editions when the tournament had a round-robin format and were points earned at TFC's expense. 

There was also one two-legged tie between a non-MLS club in the American pyramid (the Fury) and a LeagueOne club in 2018 (A.S Blainville) resulting in the victory of the former.

Bunching ties together as mentioned above, CPL clubs have a record of 2-12-0-3 against MLS clubs and of 7-1-0-0 against LeagueOne clubs.

To complete the picture: the only tie between an MLS and a LeagueOne club resulted in a win for the Impact last year and the only clash between a non-MLS club in the American pyramid and a CPL club resulted in a victory for the Fury over the Wanderers in 2019. I consider them to be clubs from the same level.

Going by my way of presenting things and including old the performance of clubs in the NASL and USL, all clubs who are trying to pull an upset against an opponent from a higher level of play have an all-time record of 5-34-4-3.

Historically the pre-MLS Whitecaps as well as Forge and Cavalry have been the only clubs that have managed to get results (in which I include loosing in overtime or penalties) against clubs from a higher level more than once. Only the pre-MLS Whitecaps have, as of yet, managed to pull more then one straight-up win and only the Montreal Impact has managed to win the whole tournament as a non-MLS club, back in its first edition in 2008.

Broadly speaking the pre-MLS Impact Whitecaps have been more successful at pulling off upset. Whether it was something right they did at the time, something wrong TFC was doing in the early years of the CanChamp, the effect of a round-robin tournament or some mix of two or all three of these factors would be interesting to consider.

 

Make of all of that what you will

 

Edited March 7 by phil03

[Kingston]

11 hours ago, phil03 said:

Broadly speaking the pre-MLS Impact and Whitecaps have been more successful at pulling off upset. Whether it was something right they did at the time, something wrong TFC was doing in the early years of the CanChamp, the effect of a round-robin tournament or some mix of two or all three of these factors would be interesting to consider.

I think it had a lot to do with TFC being a bad expansion team and both Vancouver and Montreal being, at the time, very good USL1 clubs.  It's actually been good for our CPL teams that, during the CPL's existence, our MLS teams have ranged from middling to poor.  Especially as the CPL teams were just getting themselves established.

I do have the data on matches between teams from different leagues for the entire Canadian Championship history.  Overall, the MLS teams have a better record against CPL teams than they did against the teams from D2 American leagues but I think that reflects the single game knock out format in the CPL era as previously discussed.

I did once think about tracking other factors (like overtime/penalty games) as you suggest but it was simpler just to stick to wins, draws, and losses.

[phil03]

4 hours ago, Kingston said:

I think it had a lot to do with TFC being a bad expansion team and both Vancouver and Montreal being, at the time, very good USL1 clubs.  It's actually been good for our CPL teams that, during the CPL's existence, our MLS teams have ranged from middling to poor.  Especially as the CPL teams were just getting themselves established.

I do have the data on matches between teams from different leagues for the entire Canadian Championship history.  Overall, the MLS teams have a better record against CPL teams than they did against the teams from D2 American leagues but I think that reflects the single game knock out format in the CPL era as previously discussed.

I did once think about tracking other factors (like overtime/penalty games) as you suggest but it was simpler just to stick to wins, draws, and losses.

I would argue the 2022 version of the Impact was very much in the MLS' elite, to the point I genuinely think that if we hadn't made the mistake of going for Pantemis over Crepeau a few years before we may very well have won the MLS cup that year.

Fair enough for the rest though.

[Kingston]

1 hour ago, phil03 said:

I would argue the 2022 version of the Impact was very much in the MLS' elite, to the point I genuinely think that if we hadn't made the mistake of going for Pantemis over Crepeau a few years before we may very well have won the MLS cup that year.

Fair enough for the rest though.

I'd forgotten about that one season from Montreal.

[narduch]

1st round schedule is out

 

[narduch]

Too bad that even with 2 weeks for the matches they have 2 games overlap 

[Aird25]

I'm looking forward to the derby in Victoria

[dyslexic nam]

All of those games in the right column are the David v Goliath matches that I love watching.  

[Unnamed Trialist]

15 hours ago, Aird25 said:

I'm looking forward to the derby in Victoria

Just looked at Highlanders schedule and they start in L1BC on the 27th, at home, then are home again after the Voyageurs Cup the following Sunday. Do they should have decent form.

But I don't think any of the L1s have a chance this year.

How many Highlanders supporters would go to Langford?

[shorty]

A better question would be "how many Highlanders supporters are also Pacific supporters, and who will they choose to support?"  I have no answer to that question, by the way, I just know that some of the original PFC supporters were originally Highlanders supporters and it wouldn't surprise me if some of the most committed still attend both matches regularly. 

Going to Langford is a non-issue geographically speaking (though being part-time from BC I expect you already knew that -- more of a stage whisper for those who wouldn't) -- like wondering if Nepean Hotspur would travel to TD Place, Scarborough Azzurri would travel to York Lions stadium, or if Abbotsford Mariners would travel to Langley. 

[Kingston]

On 3/12/2024 at 3:59 PM, shorty said:

A better question would be "how many Highlanders supporters are also Pacific supporters, 

I'm guessing basically all of them.  This sort of "I cheer for both teams" situation is a common experience in the Canadian Championship.  Part of the fun of having teams in different leagues.

Edited March 14 by Kingston

[narduch]

 

 

 

[Cblake]

2 hours ago, narduch said:

 

 

 

This is very exciting to see, looking forward to it, will add such a great vibe at BMO Field for this David vs Goliath match up. 

Edited March 22 by Cblake

[Kingston]

I'm looking forward to this game.  I'm also very curious as to what sort of line up TFC puts out.

[Cblake]

On 3/25/2024 at 7:48 AM, Kingston said:

I'm looking forward to this game.  I'm also very curious as to what sort of line up TFC puts out.

They have announced that Simcoe has sold 900 away tickets so far, pushing towards that 2K goal. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

11 hours ago, Cblake said:

They have announced that Simcoe has sold 900 away tickets so far, pushing towards that 2K goal. 

Has Herdman ever been knocked out of a club cup competition by a minnow?

Just thinking about standard coaching experiences everyone worth the name should have.

He must already be exhausted, he's never run so many training sessions in a two month period in his life.

[Jedi Ram]

On 2/26/2024 at 3:33 PM, Kingston said:

I'd actually prefer to see the whole thing be two legs. I think the pros of two legs outweigh the pros of one leg.  But there isn't a perfect answer.

We also have to factor in the schedule congestion along with international breaks... With CCC, Leagues Cup, asking with regular season of MLS and CPL - is getting harder to justify 2 legs in the future.  I really wanted the FA Cup style draw. 

[Kent]

53 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

We also have to factor in the schedule congestion along with international breaks... With CCC, Leagues Cup, asking with regular season of MLS and CPL - is getting harder to justify 2 legs in the future.  I really wanted the FA Cup style draw. 

I feel like if MLS teams don't like how busy the schedule is, the simple solution is to get rid of their stupid cash grab cup.