CPL General

[Watchmen]

I really don't understand what people think the benefit is going to be of a national D2 league even 9 years from now. The two biggest costs of the CPL (not counting the stadiums) are travel (which wouldn't change in a national D2 league) and player salaries. The players are basically forcing the salaries up right now because they're virtually unliveable and there's only so much lower they could go before your product is garbage and you're at the L1 level.  So what owner is sitting there saying "I'm willing to take on basically the same costs as CPL Div 1 but at the D2 level with lower income"?

[Unnamed Trialist]

31 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I really don't understand what people think the benefit is going to be of a national D2 league even 9 years from now. The two biggest costs of the CPL (not counting the stadiums) are travel (which wouldn't change in a national D2 league) and player salaries. The players are basically forcing the salaries up right now because they're virtually unliveable and there's only so much lower they could go before your product is garbage and you're at the L1 level.  So what owner is sitting there saying "I'm willing to take on basically the same costs as CPL Div 1 but at the D2 level with lower income"?

It would only make sense if we had so many clubs willing to be putting up that 3-4 million budget yearly and not enough room in a D1 League for all of them. They'd have to be chomping at the bit. But even then, a D1 with more teams means less relative travel per away match, it tightens up that side of costs. It also broadens the base for marketing CPL to television markets, in merchandising, as a market for interested players (four more teams would mean about 70-80 more Canadians playing pro). That is a synergy you want to stay with, in most scenarios.

We are quite a ways away from that still. Even if we get up to 12-14 teams, it would be a very rich scenario, I could not really imagine we could go much further. We'd need 6 more small stadiums, unless say Moncton or Regina were to come in with theirs.

L1 Ontario can do promotion/relegation because it makes no fundamental difference to the perspectives of a club to be in the top tier or second.

[Ansem]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

It would only make sense if we had so many clubs willing to be putting up that 3-4 million budget yearly and not enough room in a D1 League for all of them. They'd have to be chomping at the bit. But even then, a D1 with more teams means less relative travel per away match, it tightens up that side of costs. It also broadens the base for marketing CPL to television markets, in merchandising, as a market for interested players (four more teams would mean about 70-80 more Canadians playing pro). That is a synergy you want to stay with, in most scenarios.

We are quite a ways away from that still. Even if we get up to 12-14 teams, it would be a very rich scenario, I could not really imagine we could go much further. We'd need 6 more small stadiums, unless say Moncton or Regina were to come in with theirs.

L1 Ontario can do promotion/relegation because it makes no fundamental difference to the perspectives of a club to be in the top tier or second.

I bumped up the other thread so we can talk pro/rel there. I posted there and I think L1C will be key to this. Also, I changed my mind - Noonan seems way more patient and more pragmatic with regards to growth. D2 comes after solid D3 being fully professional (top tier of its pro/rel) and CPL being 2.0 or you're just risking cannibalizing the whole thing.
 

 

[CDNFootballer]

5 hours ago, Aird25 said:

Wasn't it reported by the league that Bustos was on $75k with Pacific, and the highest paid player at that time? I'd take these with a massive grain of salt, or maybe they're salaries alone and don't include things like housing which are often provided

The conversion from pounds to cdn $ would put it at $55,500. Quite possible it doesn't include benefits etc.

Edited February 9, 2023 by CDNFootballer

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

The TFC salary numbers in GBP on that website appear to me to tally with what's known for those in USD from the MLSPA, if you do a currency conversion:

https://salarysport.com/football/major-league-soccer/toronto-fc/

The problem with the CanPL numbers is that the salaries for loan players we know about that way don't appear to tally after a currency conversion. For example, Luke Singh is $84k base and $91k guaranteed if you google what has been reported by the MLSPA:

https://www.osdbsports.com/mls/players/luke-singh/contracts/soccer-1632994

but his CanPL number on that website is 104k:

https://salarysport.com/football/canadian-premier-league/highest-paid/

when it should be about 69k or 75k once the MLSPA USD number is converted to GBP. Think that points towards the numbers actually being Can$. Hopefully some intrepid would be journalist out there has noticed that this info is available and will investigate.

It's interesting to see the terms that Loturi and Akio accepted at Ross County:

https://salarysport.com/football/scottish-premiership/ross-county/

Ben Paton£690£35,88022D L, DM, M LCCanada

William Akio£680£35,36023AM RL, STSouth Sudan

Victor Loturi£500£26,00021DM, AM CCanada

that's lower than Dario Zanatta at Hamilton Accies:

https://salarysport.com/football/scottish-championship/hamilton-academical/

Dario Zanatta£770£40,04025AM RL, STCanada

That number now appears to be in GBP unlike yesterday when I was seeing USD numbers for that.

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[EnigMattic1]

18 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

The TFC salary numbers in GBP on that website appear to me to tally with what's known for those in USD from the MLSPA, if you do a currency conversion:

https://salarysport.com/football/major-league-soccer/toronto-fc/

The problem with the CanPL numbers is that the salaries for loan players we know about that way don't appear to tally after a currency conversion. For example, Luke Singh is $84k base and $91k guaranteed if you google what has been reported by the MLSPA:

https://www.osdbsports.com/mls/players/luke-singh/contracts/soccer-1632994

but his CanPL number on that website is 104k:

https://salarysport.com/football/canadian-premier-league/highest-paid/

when it should be about 69k or 75k once the MLSPA USD number is converted to GBP. Think that points towards the numbers actually being Can$. Hopefully some intrepid would be journalist out there has noticed that this info is available and will investigate.

It's interesting to see the terms that Loturi and Akio accepted at Ross County:

https://salarysport.com/football/scottish-premiership/ross-county/

Ben Paton£690£35,88022D L, DM, M LCCanada

William Akio£680£35,36023AM RL, STSouth Sudan

Victor Loturi£500£26,00021DM, AM CCanada

that's lower than Dario Zanatta at Hamilton Accies:

https://salarysport.com/football/scottish-championship/hamilton-academical/

Dario Zanatta£770£40,04025AM RL, STCanada

That number now appears to be in GBP unlike yesterday when I was seeing USD numbers for that.

 

I think there is always going to be discrepancies as he CPL aren't as forthcoming in the disclosure of player wages compared to other leagues who will release articles stating that "'X' have announced the signing of 'Y' on a 5yr deal on 'Z' a week".

Without any official announcements, most of this could be put down to speculation based on salary at a players parent/previous club and knowledge of the max salary cap. Which is also variable given that it is 1.2m a year, split across both playing and non-playing staff. One would assume that a team with a larger non-playing staff would have a higher budget, thus leaving less available for the playing staff. However, not all teams list all their non playing staff in that respect as Valour only list 4 staff members on the CPL website which would imply they have more wage budget available for playing staff.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Think the players union has to be the source for this and them being recognized by the league recently is what would pave the way for this info to be made available. The players union would have a motivation to find a way to report significantly lower numbers than the league would based on the same set of contracts given the history of their relationship with the league, so more info is needed about what the numbers actually represent before comparisons can safely be made with leagues elsewhere.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Aird25]

5 hours ago, EnigMattic1 said:

I think there is always going to be discrepancies as he CPL aren't as forthcoming in the disclosure of player wages compared to other leagues who will release articles stating that "'X' have announced the signing of 'Y' on a 5yr deal on 'Z' a week".

Without any official announcements, most of this could be put down to speculation based on salary at a players parent/previous club and knowledge of the max salary cap. Which is also variable given that it is 1.2m a year, split across both playing and non-playing staff. One would assume that a team with a larger non-playing staff would have a higher budget, thus leaving less available for the playing staff. However, not all teams list all their non playing staff in that respect as Valour only list 4 staff members on the CPL website which would imply they have more wage budget available for playing staff.

Playing and non-playing staff have separate salaries now. The player salary minimum is $750,000 and the max is $1,125,000 with a minimum salary of $30k per player. 

https://canpl.ca/article/canadian-premier-league-announces-increases-to-salary-cap 

[Kingston]

20 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

It would only make sense if we had so many clubs willing to be putting up that 3-4 million budget yearly and not enough room in a D1 League for all of them. They'd have to be chomping at the bit. But even then, a D1 with more teams means less relative travel per away match, it tightens up that side of costs. It also broadens the base for marketing CPL to television markets, in merchandising, as a market for interested players (four more teams would mean about 70-80 more Canadians playing pro). That is a synergy you want to stay with, in most scenarios.

We are quite a ways away from that still. Even if we get up to 12-14 teams, it would be a very rich scenario, I could not really imagine we could go much further. We'd need 6 more small stadiums, unless say Moncton or Regina were to come in with theirs.

L1 Ontario can do promotion/relegation because it makes no fundamental difference to the perspectives of a club to be in the top tier or second.

This is an excellent post.

The part I bolded is, I think, the biggest long term hurdle for D2 coming to pass.  Simply put, we don't have enough markets to support two full flights of national-travel-level teams.

We only have about 16 metro areas with populations the size of Victoria (our current smallest market) or larger.  I know people will say it works in smaller centres in Europe and we can have multiple teams in bigger centres like they do in Europe.  Based on our current attendances, I would not say we are in a position for those approaches to work here in a foreseeable time frame.

So it's pretty hard to have two ~12 team flights with only 16 cities to pick from.

[Ansem]

25 minutes ago, Kingston said:

This is an excellent post.

The part I bolded is, I think, the biggest long term hurdle for D2 coming to pass.  Simply put, we don't have enough markets to support two full flights of national-travel-level teams.

We only have about 16 metro areas with populations the size of Victoria (our current smallest market) or larger.  I know people will say it works in smaller centres in Europe and we can have multiple teams in bigger centres like they do in Europe.  Based on our current attendances, I would not say we are in a position for those approaches to work here in a foreseeable time frame.

So it's pretty hard to have two ~12 team flights with only 16 cities to pick from.

You're comparing us to the US which obviously makes you correct using that metric.

If you go by other systems around the world, Canada absolutely can do just as well at worst or better as everyone else within their scope.

Depends if you talk like we're USA junior and we have to use the US a the measuring stick or see what works somewhere else or come up like our own system made for us like we did for hockey

Edited February 9, 2023 by Ansem

[Watchmen]

42 minutes ago, Ansem said:

You're comparing us to the US which obviously makes you correct using that metric.

If you go by other systems around the world, Canada absolutely can do just as well at worst or better as everyone else within their scope.

Depends if you talk like we're USA junior and we have to use the US a the measuring stick or see what works somewhere else or come up like our own system made for us like we did for hockey

He's actually not talking about the US. He very definitively says he's comparing it to Europe. 

[Kingston]

1 hour ago, Ansem said:

You're comparing us to the US which obviously makes you correct using that metric.

If you go by other systems around the world, Canada absolutely can do just as well at worst or better as everyone else within their scope.

No, I was definitely comparing us to Europe.

The European model relies, in many countries, on sustainable D1 teams in cities that are smaller than what we here in Canada are used to seeing support top level pro teams.  And/or they rely on multiple D1 teams in a single, larger city in a way that we don't normally see here in Canada.

If we were going to have national-travel-level D1 and D2 leagues, we'd probably want something like 24 teams (12 teams per league).

The way we normally do pro sports in Canada is one team per city using pretty much only the largest cities.

We don't have 24 such cities so, if we were going to have both D1 and D2, we would need to borrow something from the European model.

The point I was trying to make is that, based on our current attendance situation, I see great difficulty borrowing from the European model right now. 

Most CPL teams are not drawing crowds that are long term sustainable, even when the team operates in a larger city.  That doesn't bode well for putting teams in smaller cities the size we'd need to to have 24 teams.

Our one experiment with multi-team markets so far is York and that hasn't gone well.  Admittedly, it is a single data point.  I'm very curious to see how Vancouver works out.  Still, to get to 24 teams using the multi-team approach, we'd probably expect three or four CPL teams in the GTA and two or three in each of Vancouver and Montreal.  That doesn't seem practical at the moment.

So I'm saying that, to have D2, we need a European model that but, at present, the European model seems unlikely to work.  Hence my thought that we're unlikely to see a national-travel-level D2 league in the foreseeable future. 

[Ansem]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

The European model relies, in many countries, on sustainable D1 teams in cities that are smaller than what we here in Canada are used to seeing support top level pro teams. 

Takes decades to build that. We're in year 5 - hence my annoyance at claiming that it can't be done. This is a marathon, not a race and the way CSB is setup gives them a chance to stay in the race until it really starts to pay off, even in smaller markets.

 

 

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

And/or they rely on multiple D1 teams in a single, larger city in a way that we don't normally see here in Canada.

Because it's a North American environment where it's not the norm unless you're LA, NY or Chicago and people are used to that. This doesn't prove that it can't be done.

Perhaps "cities" having multiple club is a taller order but "metro areas"? I'll never buy into that our biggest areas can't support multiple clubs, the key is "how" you do it and that's what needs to be figured out.

 

 

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

If we were going to have national-travel-level D1 and D2 leagues, we'd probably want something like 24 teams (12 teams per league).

I see D2 as a long long term thing. I think we shouldn't go there until we get League 1 Canada right and D3 is professionalized. Once that's on point, a D2 becomes much more attainable and easier to do.

 

 

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

The way we normally do pro sports in Canada is one team per city using pretty much only the largest cities.

Yes, that's the North American model mostly imposed by American leagues as our markets are dis-proportionally smaller than theirs for the scope they are working with. Clearly, if you change the scope/approach coming up with a formula that allows for more pro-clubs is doable.

With the large pool of players we have in this country, our top priority is getting more pro clubs off the ground to provide opportunities for that pool.

 

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

We don't have 24 such cities so, if we were going to have both D1 and D2, we would need to borrow something from the European model.

Yes, it's one entity controlling multiple Tiers which can accommodate different type of markets, ownership groups, investors, infrastructure and not do like the Americans like having a bunch of independent leagues fighting for the same customers

--> Best example : "CPL should have a club in Laval" --> No they shouldn't, there's already clubs in D3 in Laval - leave Jesus Island (actual name of the Island of the city) to those clubs. Good on York United to go to Woodbine, leave Vaughan to the Azzuri. Don't cannibalize like they are doing in the US unless there's a demand for accommodating all of them

We have investors interest in CPL but the entry fee and/or standards are too high, so they get nothing and we have no alternatives to give them. Hence my argument that we need to professionalize D3 so it starts to actually make sense for investors to buy in at that level and grow with the hope to promote one day.  Leave CPL to the very wealthy groups who wants in from the jump.

 

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

The point I was trying to make is that, based on our current attendance situation, I see great difficulty borrowing from the European model right now. Most CPL teams are not drawing crowds that are long term sustainable, even when the team operates in a larger city.  That doesn't bode well for putting teams in smaller cities the size we'd need to to have 24 teams.

We're in year 5 so a D2 now doesn't make sense to me either. Get D3 right - professionalize it, put pro/rel in it, build a new tradition/national event out of the L1C Cup (don't treat it like the CSA does with the V Cup). If we get D3 right, that paves the way to a viable national D2.

 

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

Our one experiment with multi-team markets so far is York and that hasn't gone well.  Admittedly, it is a single data point.  I'm very curious to see how Vancouver works out.  Still, to get to 24 teams using the multi-team approach, we'd probably expect three or four CPL teams in the GTA and two or three in each of Vancouver and Montreal.  That doesn't seem practical at the moment.

York 9 launch failing is well documented. It's more of a case of "York 9 screwed York 9" than "large markets can't support more cities"

MLS complicate things in a sense that it's a competing team established in the largest 3 market borrowing the same North American philosophy (We own the metro area). Still, those 3 markets can support more than 1 club each under the CSB Tier

 

Currently

GTA

• Toronto FC D1
• York United D1
• 14 clubs in LO : Markham, Unionville, Oakville, Burlington, Whitby, Scarborough, North York, Pickering, Brampton, Milton, St. Catharines, (2X) Mississauga, (2X) Vaughan

--> Professionalizing D3 means some of those L1O clubs would stay in the Premier Division and eventually attract investors where making an eventual D2 makes sense. Until then, use your new tools as a pro-club to convert more locals to that club (better stadium, marketing, accessibility on media, etc...)

--> With that in mind, I don't see where else a new CPL club makes sense as Toronto, Peel, Halton, York, Niagara and Durham has very good coverage.

 

Communauté Montreal Metropolitain

• CF Montreal D1
• 9 clubs in PLSQ : (2X) Laval, Blainville, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Longueuil, CF Montreal reserves, Mount Royal, Saint-Laurent, Saint-Hubert

--> Soccer Quebec said they wanted to professionalize PLSQ to also attract loans from higher tiers and would look into a pro/rel like Ontario. They've received lots of interests for new clubs

-->Laurentides, Laval, Monteregie and Lanaudiere have good coverage. A CPL club is needed on Montreal Island and Laval should be left alone. West Island could use a D3 club for Anglo-Montreal

 

Metro Vancouver

• Vancouver Whitecaps D1
• Vancouver (Langley) FC D1
• 6 clubs in L1BC : Langley, North Vancouver, (2X) UBC, Burnaby, Langley

--> BCL1 is relatively new but off to a good start. I don't know that region very well but Langley have a CPL and BCL1 club seems potentially problematic for Unity FC

-->Others who know that region better than me could point out to where D3 (pro) could be started. As for D1, I think 2

 

I mean excluding MLS, we're already at 31 clubs in the 3 metro areas. Professionalize some of those, elevate D3 and them to those outside those 3 markets + future expansions and you could make it. The huge task is how you organize it logistically, financially and make it appealing enough to get the revenues to make this work.

Only then I think a D2 made of clubs from D3 with the means to upgrade to that level and new clubs expanding at that tier make sense. Got to build that demand to get there.

 

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

So I'm saying that, to have D2, we need a European model that but, at present, the European model seems unlikely to work.  Hence my thought that we're unlikely to see a national-travel-level D2 league in the foreseeable future. 

We might be talking past each other but at the core - we agree overall for different reasons?

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

No, I was definitely comparing us to Europe.

The European model relies, in many countries, on sustainable D1 teams in cities that are smaller than what we here in Canada are used to seeing support top level pro teams.  And/or they rely on multiple D1 teams in a single, larger city in a way that we don't normally see here in Canada.

If we were going to have national-travel-level D1 and D2 leagues, we'd probably want something like 24 teams (12 teams per league).

The way we normally do pro sports in Canada is one team per city using pretty much only the largest cities.

We don't have 24 such cities so, if we were going to have both D1 and D2, we would need to borrow something from the European model.

The point I was trying to make is that, based on our current attendance situation, I see great difficulty borrowing from the European model right now. 

Most CPL teams are not drawing crowds that are long term sustainable, even when the team operates in a larger city.  That doesn't bode well for putting teams in smaller cities the size we'd need to to have 24 teams.

Our one experiment with multi-team markets so far is York and that hasn't gone well.  Admittedly, it is a single data point.  I'm very curious to see how Vancouver works out.  Still, to get to 24 teams using the multi-team approach, we'd probably expect three or four CPL teams in the GTA and two or three in each of Vancouver and Montreal.  That doesn't seem practical at the moment.

So I'm saying that, to have D2, we need a European model that but, at present, the European model seems unlikely to work.  Hence my thought that we're unlikely to see a national-travel-level D2 league in the foreseeable future. 

The analysis of multi-teams in large cities and smaller cities having D1 teams is correct. Also the rise of small markets through promotion, which you did not explicitly say, but implicit. 

First, in major D1 leagues, tv, sponsors and merchandising carry more weight than gate, so having a team in a stadium with 20,000 capacity in a big four league is possible. They may struggle, but it's doable. Some very small cities have teams, Hoffenheim was perhaps that early famous example, along with Villarreal. In England, Brighton and Hove is under 300k, but England has population density.

CPL needs to get to that stable 5-6000 average and let that be the foundation for salary cap and overall budget. I think we have enough cities to maybe even double our clubs, but 24 seems tough. If CPL is going to end up with 5-6 Ontario teams, we better have teams in Saskatchewan, a couple in Québec and in Moncton, just to balance out the concentration.

As for multiple teams in a single city, good point. Paris in fact only has PSG and then Paris FC in 2nd tier, and famous Red Star is lower down. One club dominates. Thinking of other big European cities, Berlin has often had no team in D1, has Union now but that's new. Naples has one. All the other of the larger European cities have two in top flight, or more. Often you get like in Rome, where one is more the city club and the other, Lazio, more suburban support.

I think Toronto could probably have a second CPL club, but probably York Utd has to improve seriously in terms of fans, stadium, game experience, because they are being run badly from day one off the pitch and are hurting the league in a key market. In fact, by locating where they are, they are eating at a potential club connecting with Vaughn, Markham or Brampton. Either capture those markets and be their team, or move (harsh opinion).

[Kingston]

12 minutes ago, Ansem said:

We might be talking past each other but at the core - we agree overall for different reasons?

Mostly yes.

We agree that for Canada to have national level D1 and D2 leagues, we'd need some version of the European model rather than our traditional one-team-per-city-in-big-cities-only model.

We agree that the European model is not going to work in Canada in 2023 or, realistically, for some time after 2023.

We probably disagree on how long after 2023 the European model might work in Canada.  I think it would be far enough in the future that it isn't worth making a part of any plans that we'd be discussing today.  So, for example, to me it would make sense for people on this board to discuss future CPL expansion or D3 expansion or how L1O is moving toward a professional D3. 

To me it doesn't yet make much sense to seriously talk about D2 or putting CPL teams in very small cities or having more than one CPL team in a market.  Or, if we do, at least to acknowledge that we're just having fun because there's actually no way Kingston is getting a CPL team in my lifetime.

We also probably disagree on whether aiming for a D2 is even something we'd should try for in the timeframe that would make it meaningful to talk about.  (Personally, I'd rather see a really strong D1 and a professionalizing D3 before we prematurely stretch things just so we can say we have a D2.)

[Kingston]

5 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

CPL needs to get to that stable 5-6000 average and let that be the foundation for salary cap and overall budget. I think we have enough cities to maybe even double our clubs, but 24 seems tough. If CPL is going to end up with 5-6 Ontario teams, we better have teams in Saskatchewan, a couple in Québec and in Moncton, just to balance out the concentration.

To me, getting those stable D1 teams with the attendance you mention is the key.  Even twelve or so would be enough.  Once you have that, you have a stable league that you can build on.  And if some of those twelve teams draw 10 000 or 15 000 that's great.  But, like you say, make it workable at 5-6000 so that people know what they'll  have to achieve to be successful if they want to try a team in City X.

I'd definitely enjoy seeing teams scattered across the country but demographics suggests Ontario is going to be the go-to province if the league grows past twelve teams.  Ontario has the most sizeable cities after you've already filled all the obvious large cities.

[Ansem]

16 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Mostly yes.

We agree that for Canada to have national level D1 and D2 leagues, we'd need some version of the European model rather than our traditional one-team-per-city-in-big-cities-only model.

We agree that the European model is not going to work in Canada in 2023 or, realistically, for some time after 2023.

We probably disagree on how long after 2023 the European model might work in Canada.  I think it would be far enough in the future that it isn't worth making a part of any plans that we'd be discussing today.  So, for example, to me it would make sense for people on this board to discuss future CPL expansion or D3 expansion or how L1O is moving toward a professional D3. 

D2 is not realistic until at the bare minimum the next media deal that will be up for renewal after 2029. I don't see our pyramid being ready for it until into the 2030s. I used to think we could do it right after 2026 but post 2030s makes more sense. There's no rush if you can raise the bar at D3 and make L1C Cup a national event (hard to do worse than the CSA with the V Cup)

  

16 minutes ago, Kingston said:

To me it doesn't yet make much sense to seriously talk about D2 or putting CPL teams in very small cities or having more than one CPL team in a market.  Or, if we do, at least to acknowledge that we're just having fun because there's actually no way Kingston is getting a CPL team in my lifetime.

I think CSB would have a more "pyramidal" approach as much as possible to expansion than just putting a club in every small cities especially if they have a League 1 club.

I'm hoping to see Kingston entering L2O some day and perhaps working their way to the Premier Division...or not if that's not their ambition or if they don't have the means for it.

What matters is that there's a club there for local talent and who knows? If the community support it and the club does show promise, an investor could take a liking to the club and invest in it so it can move up.

What's been lacking was a pyramidal view on soccer in this country

  

22 minutes ago, Kingston said:

We also probably disagree on whether aiming for a D2 is even something we'd should try for in the timeframe that would make it meaningful to talk about.  (Personally, I'd rather see a really strong D1 and a professionalizing D3 before we prematurely stretch things just so we can say we have a D2.)

We actually agree on that. I think D2 should happen organically once D3 have like CHL success and L1C Cup has "Memorial Cup" appeal creating a demand for it. No need to force it, another reason why I view favorably Noonan hiring. He said the same thing, CPL will go where it makes sense, where there's an actual demand (Quebec City study) and where success is possible.

Quite the change in philosophy - I respect the patience

Edited February 9, 2023 by Ansem

[Kingston]

14 hours ago, Ansem said:

D2 is not realistic until at the bare minimum the next media deal that will be up for renewal after 2029. I don't see our pyramid being ready for it until into the 2030s. I used to think we could do it right after 2026 but post 2030s makes more sense. 

At least the very late 2030s.  Even if the CPL added one new team every single year, it would be 2039 before the 24th team joined and we'd have enough from the two 12 team leagues we've been discussing.  Which means we're really discussing a time frame so long that it's impossible to actually say much more than "what if".

14 hours ago, Ansem said:

I think CSB would have a more "pyramidal" approach as much as possible to expansion than just putting a club in every small cities especially if they have a League 1 club.

I'm hoping to see Kingston entering L2O some day and perhaps working their way to the Premier Division...or not if that's not their ambition or if they don't have the means for it.

What matters is that there's a club there for local talent and who knows? If the community support it and the club does show promise, an investor could take a liking to the club and invest in it so it can move up.

Kingston was one of the founding L1O clubs.  The club (then called Cataraqui Clippers, now Junior Gaels due to an affiliation with Queens) paid half the cost of the L1O team from dues from all the players in the club and half from a sponsor.  The sponsor pulled out after the 2016 season and the club folded the team.  The club is still around and doing well.  They'd love to have an L1O team again at some level but the financial barrier is still there.

14 hours ago, Ansem said:

We actually agree on that. I think D2 should happen organically once D3 have like CHL success and L1C Cup has "Memorial Cup" appeal creating a demand for it. No need to force it, another reason why I view favorably Noonan hiring. He said the same thing, CPL will go where it makes sense, where there's an actual demand (Quebec City study) and where success is possible.

If D2 happened organically in the far future, then fine.  Personally, I'd be fine with the D3 leagues forming tiers like L1O has done and having the top tier be a D2 in all but name.  We'd technically just have D1 and D3.  We'd functionally have D2 but without the hassle of running yet another league.  I'm more concerned with outcome than official league names.

[Ansem]

30 minutes ago, Kingston said:

At least the very late 2030s.  Even if the CPL added one new team every single year, it would be 2039 before the 24th team joined and we'd have enough from the two 12 team leagues we've been discussing.  Which means we're really discussing a time frame so long that it's impossible to actually say much more than "what if".

I do think the 2026 World Cup will boost demands and interest. Things could move quicker post tournament.

 

31 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Kingston was one of the founding L1O clubs.  The club (then called Cataraqui Clippers, now Junior Gaels due to an affiliation with Queens) paid half the cost of the L1O team from dues from all the players in the club and half from a sponsor.  The sponsor pulled out after the 2016 season and the club folded the team.  The club is still around and doing well.  They'd love to have an L1O team again at some level but the financial barrier is still there.

Surely they could handle L2O which would be the entry point for any new expansions.

 

33 minutes ago, Kingston said:

f D2 happened organically in the far future, then fine.  Personally, I'd be fine with the D3 leagues forming tiers like L1O has done and having the top tier be a D2 in all but name.  We'd technically just have D1 and D3.  We'd functionally have D2 but without the hassle of running yet another league.  I'm more concerned with outcome than official league names.

Realistically, CPL will just keep improving and the gap with D3 will widen. Over time, not having a D2 will become an obvious flaw needing to be addressed.

[Kingston]

21 minutes ago, Ansem said:

I do think the 2026 World Cup will boost demands and interest. Things could move quicker post tournament.

I would love to be wrong about this, but here is my clip and save prediction:  The 2026 World Cup will produce a modest, one-year attendance bump for the CPL in 2027 and that's it.

I base this on having followed MLS through several World Cup cycles.  Especially in the early years there were always predictions on boards like this one about the huge increase in interest that would follow the World Cup but it never happened.  This could be different because we are actually hosting, but I don't think so.  Many casual fans love the World Cup but don't translate that into interest in local club soccer.  It's like how people avidly watch rowing or luge during the Olympics but don't then pack the rowing and luge venues the next year.  Again, this is one prediction where I'd love to be wrong.

[Ansem]

15 minutes ago, Kingston said:

I would love to be wrong about this, but here is my clip and save prediction:  The 2026 World Cup will produce a modest, one-year attendance bump for the CPL in 2027 and that's it.

I base this on having followed MLS through several World Cup cycles.  Especially in the early years there were always predictions on boards like this one about the huge increase in interest that would follow the World Cup but it never happened.  This could be different because we are actually hosting, but I don't think so.  Many casual fans love the World Cup but don't translate that into interest in local club soccer.  It's like how people avidly watch rowing or luge during the Olympics but don't then pack the rowing and luge venues the next year.  Again, this is one prediction where I'd love to be wrong.

So 1994 wasn't a big deal for club football in the US? If yes, why do you think it would be any different here since we'll be co-hosting?

Edited February 10, 2023 by Ansem

[Kingston]

28 minutes ago, Ansem said:

So 1994 wasn't a big deal for club football in the US? 

No, it wasn't.*

The highest level of soccer in the US and Canada in 1994 was the APSL.  From 1993 to 1994, the league saw an increase in average attendance of about 1200.  In 1995 that dropped by about 100. 

Of course, APSL teams were constantly starting and folding, so it is difficult to know what to attribute any changes in attendance to.  My point, however, is that the existing pro teams did not see any meaningful or lasting World Cup bump.  Certainly nothing on the scale that, if it happened in Canada in 2026, would propel the CPL to "the next level".

 

* Forming what became MLS was a condition of the US hosting the World Cup.  So in the sense that it ultimately resulted in MLS, 1994 eventually turned into a big deal.  That wasn't until 1996, though.

 

[Cblake]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

No, it wasn't.*

The highest level of soccer in the US and Canada in 1994 was the APSL.  From 1993 to 1994, the league saw an increase in average attendance of about 1200.  In 1995 that dropped by about 100. 

Of course, APSL teams were constantly starting and folding, so it is difficult to know what to attribute any changes in attendance to.  My point, however, is that the existing pro teams did not see any meaningful or lasting World Cup bump.  Certainly nothing on the scale that, if it happened in Canada in 2026, would propel the CPL to "the next level".

 

* Forming what became MLS was a condition of the US hosting the World Cup.  So in the sense that it ultimately resulted in MLS, 1994 eventually turned into a big deal.  That wasn't until 1996, though.

 

And you can not forget MLS had actually folded after the 2001 season before Lamar Hunt got everyone back to the table and they decided to give it another try. While yes the CPL is going into year 5 in 2023, it's growth has really been slowed by the global pandemic where two seasons were not played under normal circumstances, far from it. far from it. Looking at OHL attendance as a comparison, I am just not sure if there is enough corporate dollars around to sustain a fully pro D3 level. Having worked for two CFL teams, it is going to take a lot of work, depending on the expectations attendance wise, and all that it entails a 12-16 team CPL could work. They just have to be careful. It would be nice to see one of the big stadium teams really take off and draw like Cincinnati did in the USL, that would be cool, a feel good story. 

https://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendance/att_graph_season.php?lid=OHL1989&sid=2022

[Aird25]

On 2/9/2023 at 10:12 AM, Kingston said:

This is an excellent post.

The part I bolded is, I think, the biggest long term hurdle for D2 coming to pass.  Simply put, we don't have enough markets to support two full flights of national-travel-level teams.

We only have about 16 metro areas with populations the size of Victoria (our current smallest market) or larger.  I know people will say it works in smaller centres in Europe and we can have multiple teams in bigger centres like they do in Europe.  Based on our current attendances, I would not say we are in a position for those approaches to work here in a foreseeable time frame.

So it's pretty hard to have two ~12 team flights with only 16 cities to pick from.

This seemed relevant 

[RS]

12 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

This seemed relevant 

And you can cram that entire map into Ontario and Quebec. Which is the real problem, given our paucity of bit centres.