Vote: CPL cities needed to succeed

[rob.notenboom]

2 minutes ago, Gordon said:

Mid fifties, but you probably at least know their relatives, because, well, you know...Saskatchewan, where it is impossible to go past 3 degrees of seperation.

I'm quite certain I would. Hopefully I know the nicer ones. 

[Kent]

16 hours ago, Rintaran said:

I realize this post jumped the shark a ways back, but if I had to "vote" on 8 cities the CPL "needs":

1. GTA (independent) - whether this is Mississuaga, Vaughan, or Pickering

2. Hamilton (done)

3. Quebec

4. Regina or Saskatoon

5. Winnipeg

6. Calgary

7. BC Lower Mainland (independent of Whitecaps)

8. Moncton or Halifax

 

Future expansions (in no particular order):

1. Victoria, BC

2. Thunder Bay, ON

3. London, ON

4. Montreal Area, PQ

5. Edmonton, AB

6. 2nd Atlantic Canada Team (Newfoundland-based maybe)

7. 2nd GTA-area independent team

8. Greater Vancouver-area independent team

Yes, the thread has gotten off track, but I'm still counting any valid votes (meaning, exactly 8 cities). If you care to pick between Regina/Saskatoon, and Moncton/Halifax, I'll put your votes up too.

[ironcub14]

On 2016-09-23 at 3:32 PM, ironcub14 said:

My vote at the moment, it may always change quickly as things develop further.

I noticed one thing interesting that I'm not sure has come up in a CPL discussion, but creating a rivalry a decade down the road for Ottawa vs. Gatineau would be pretty sick to watch, the rivalry is most definitely there.

I've got my votes in below for an eventual 20-team CPL.

Starting 10 (dammit, I just can't do the 8)

• Vancouver (independent) (6)
• Calgary (20)
• Edmonton (16)
• Regina (10)
• Winnipeg (19)
• Hamilton (19)
• Toronto (independent) (15)
• Ottawa (19)
• Montreal (independent) (1)
• Quebec City (17)

1st Expansion of 4

• Victoria (7)
• Saskatoon (0)
• London (1)
• Halifax (3)

2nd Expansion of 6 (MLS if CPL is beyond our wildest imagination by 2030, USL if CPL finds a steady state relationship with MLS)

• Vancouver (MLS/USL) (1)
• Kitchener-Waterloo (0)
• Toronto (MLS/USL) (1)
• Montreal (MLS/USL) (1)
• Moncton (4)
• Gatineau (0)

I'll assume my vote wasn't counted because it had 10 instead of 8 lol.

Though I strongly urge the league to start off with a minimum of 10 clubs if possible, here are the 8 cities I believe CPL needs, to succeed over the short term.

And to fulfill Godwin's Law on your behalf, Kent, it is so Hitler-like of you to be forcing me to choose just 8 cities for my vote to be counted

It was tough choosing which ones to leave off between Vancouver, Regina and Quebec City.

My reasoning right now is that Vancouver is content and not big enough to support both a MLS and an independent CPL club, compared to Toronto and Montreal.

And I just had a gut feeling that Quebec City, lacking both a NHL and a CFL team, would embrace a CPL club a bit more than Regina would at this point. In addition, I see that Quebec City has a metro population of 800,000, compared to Regina's 200,000.

I didn't realize it, but I just checked and realized that I picked the 9 largest CMAs in Canada, minus Vancouver. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_census_metropolitan_areas_and_agglomerations_in_Canada

I could be wrong, Rob can tell me so lol.

• Calgary (20)
• Edmonton (16)
• Winnipeg (19)
• Hamilton (19)
• Toronto (independent) (15)
• Ottawa (19)
• Montreal (independent) (1)
• Quebec City (17)

[Kent]

On 26/09/2016 at 1:04 PM, Complete Homer said:

There have been face to face and media acknowledgements from the TiCats, nearly direct confirmation at a fan event for the Fury, the Rollins leak (Winnipeg, Calgary), etc.

I meant to ask about this before, but wasn't caught up in the CPL thread at the time and thought there might be explanation there. I think I missed whatever this Rollins leak is regarding Winnipeg and Calgary. Can someone elaborate? Is there any article or tweet about it or is it all in a podcast? If it's in a podcast, please give me the highlights.

[Tuscan]

@Kent I assume you probably didn't count my original post since I made a list of 12, so here's my initial starting 8 cities:

1. Vancouver (independent)

2. Edmonton

3. Calgary

4. Regina

5. Winnipeg

6. Hamilton

7. Toronto (independent)

8. Ottawa

 

In my opinion the most important of all cities in the list is the independent Toronto club. If the CFL goes out of its way as hard as it does to keep the Argos alive, thus keeping a team in the league in Toronto, then its obvious how important having a top flight club in Toronto will be to the new league. I could trade Ottawa for Halifax but I think you go with an existing club (Fury) over starting from scratch (Halifax). I'd also say every city with a population over 200,000 should be targeted as a #CanPL club location for eventual expansion.

[Tuscan]

Toronto, Ontario	5,583,064	1
Montréal, Quebec	3,824,221	2
Vancouver, British Columbia	2,313,328	3
Ottawa, Ontario - Gatineau, Quebec	1,236,324	4
Calgary, Alberta	1,214,839	5
Edmonton, Alberta	1,159,869	6
Québec City, Quebec	765,706	7
Winnipeg, Manitoba	730,018	8
Hamilton, Ontario	721,053	9
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo, Ontario	477,160	10
London, Ontario	474,786	11
St. Catharines - Niagara, Ontario	392,184	12
Halifax, Nova Scotia	390,328	13
Oshawa, Ontario	356,177	14
Victoria, British Columbia	344,615	15
Windsor, Ontario	319,246	16
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan	260,600	17
Regina, Saskatchewan	210,556	18

These are the cities (or city amalgamations in the case of Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Ottawa-Gatineau) with over 200,000 pop. I'd argue these are your first 18 #CanPL targets, unless you take a "minimum one team per province before overloading Southern Ontario" approach. In that case, St. John's, Moncton, and Charlottetown would come before places like Kitchener-Waterloo, London, St. Catharines-Niagara, Oshawa, possibly Victoria, Windsor, and (GASP!!!) Saskatoon. I'd kill every last one of you if anything came before Saskatoon.

[rob.notenboom]

1 hour ago, Tuscan said:

Toronto, Ontario	5,583,064	1
Montréal, Quebec	3,824,221	2
Vancouver, British Columbia	2,313,328	3
Ottawa, Ontario - Gatineau, Quebec	1,236,324	4
Calgary, Alberta	1,214,839	5
Edmonton, Alberta	1,159,869	6
Québec City, Quebec	765,706	7
Winnipeg, Manitoba	730,018	8
Hamilton, Ontario	721,053	9
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo, Ontario	477,160	10
London, Ontario	474,786	11
St. Catharines - Niagara, Ontario	392,184	12
Halifax, Nova Scotia	390,328	13
Oshawa, Ontario	356,177	14
Victoria, British Columbia	344,615	15
Windsor, Ontario	319,246	16
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan	260,600	17
Regina, Saskatchewan	210,556	18

These are the cities (or city amalgamations in the case of Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Ottawa-Gatineau) with over 200,000 pop. I'd argue these are your first 18 #CanPL targets, unless you take a "minimum one team per province before overloading Southern Ontario" approach. In that case, St. John's, Moncton, and Charlottetown would come before places like Kitchener-Waterloo, London, St. Catharines-Niagara, Oshawa, possibly Victoria, Windsor, and (GASP!!!) Saskatoon. I'd kill every last one of you if anything came before Saskatoon.

How are you going to do that? Reach up and belt us in the knee?

[Complete Homer]

7 hours ago, Kent said:

I meant to ask about this before, but wasn't caught up in the CPL thread at the time and thought there might be explanation there. I think I missed whatever this Rollins leak is regarding Winnipeg and Calgary. Can someone elaborate? Is there any article or tweet about it or is it all in a podcast? If it's in a podcast, please give me the highlights.

Here is an aggregation of links for the various rumours

[Kent]

Yes @ironcub14 and @Tuscan I hadn't counted your previous votes. They've been counted now (and the OP now says whose votes are counted, for anyone else in a similar position).

Thanks ironcub14 for the Godwin's Law fulfillment. The internet says you lose the thread, but you've won my heart.

[Kent]

14 minutes ago, Complete Homer said:

Here is an aggregation of links for the various rumours

Many thanks!

[zen]

19 hours ago, Tuscan said:

These are the cities (or city amalgamations in the case of Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Ottawa-Gatineau) 

 

They aren't amalgamations, they are metropolitan areas. Amalgamation in the context of cities is a term used to mean the merger different municipalities into one municipality.

Also, the definition of a metropolitan area while not arbitrary is set by the government. If the American definition of a metropolitan area or CSA is used, Toronto's metropolitan area would include the metropolitan areas of Oshawa, Toronto, Barrie, KW, Hamilton, and St. Catharines-Niagara Falls.  

[Pqhbv]

19 minutes ago, zen said:

They aren't amalgamations, they are metropolitan areas. Amalgamation in the context of cities is a term used to mean the merger different municipalities into one municipality.

Also, the definition of a metropolitan area while not arbitrary is set by the government. If the American definition of a metropolitan area or CSA is used, Toronto's metropolitan area would include the metropolitan areas of Oshawa, Toronto, Barrie, KW, Hamilton, and St. Catharines-Niagara Falls.  

For example:

Chicagoland: ~ 9.7 million people in ~ 28000  kmsq. 

Greater Golden Horseshoe (extended): ~ 8.7 million people in ~ 31000  kmsq.

[coppercanuck]

My vote for 8 cities ...

• Toronto (ind)
• Montreal (ind)
• Ottawa (NASL)
• Hamilton
• Mississauga (GTA is a big enough market)
• Vancouver (ind)
• Edmonton (NASL)
• Calgary

 

[Kent]

OK, it's been a bit over a week, so I changed the OP to show a ranked table rather than a West to East listing. Anyone who still wants to vote, feel free. I don't know that there is any need for a hard stop on this thread, aside from I suppose if we get an official list of the first teams to be in the league.

[Tuscan]

On 9/28/2016 at 6:17 PM, rob.notenboom said:

How are you going to do that? Reach up and belt us in the knee?

I'll just get Fred to throw pissbags at you.

[DannyFromToronto23]

On 9/27/2016 at 3:51 PM, Rintaran said:

12 CanPL cities i want in 2018 

East

1. Mississuaga, 

2. Hamilton (done)

3. Moncton 

4. Halifax 

5. Ottawa 

6. Quebec City 

West 

7. Victoria 

8. Edmonton 

9 Calgary 

10 Regina 

11 Winnipeg 

12 Saskatoon 

 

Future expansions (in no particular order):

East

1.  London, ON                                                   2019

2. Another Toronto Club (North York)               2020

3. Kitchener-Waterloo                                        2022

West

4 Thunder Bay                                                   2020

5. Burnaby( TSS Rovers renamed)                 2019

6. Surrey                                                              2022

 

[Ansem]

So the latest 2016 of Canada's biggest agglomerations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Largest_Metropolitan_Areas_of_Canada

1. Toronto :        5.928M  +6%   -->6.283M -->6.659M
2. Montreal:       4.098M  +4%   -->4.261M -->4.431M
3. Vancouver:    2.463M  +6%   -->2.610M -->2.766M
4. Calgary:        1.392M   +14% -->1.586M -->1.808M
5. Ottawa:         1.323M   +5%   -->1.389M -->1.458M
6. Edmonton:    1.321M   +13% -->1.492M -->1.685M
7. Quebec City:    800k    +4%   -->   832k -->   865k
8. Winnipeg:         778k    +6%   -->   824k -->   873k
9. Hamilton:          747k    +3%   -->   769k -->   792k
10. Tri-City:             523k    +5%   -->   549k -->   576k
11. London             494k    +4%   -->   513k -->   533k
12. St.Catherines:  406k    +3%   -->   418k -->   430k
13. Halifax:             403k    +3%   -->   415k -->   427k
14. Oshawa:           379k    +6%   -->   401k -->   425k
15. Victoria:            367k    +6%   -->   389k -->   412k
16. Windsor:           329k    +3%   -->   338k -->   348k
17. Saskatoon:       295k    +12% -->   330k  -->  369k
18. Regina:            236k    +11%  -->   261k -->   289k
19. Sherbrooke:     212k    +4%   -->   220k -->    228k
20. St.John's:         205k    +4%   -->   213k -->    221k

Moncton is 29th with: 144K    +3%  -->    148k -->   152k

• The growth after 5 years
• I calculated a population estimate for 2021 (in red) and 2026 with the current growth % (in blue)
• Edmonton is projected to surpass Ottawa as the 5th agglomeration in Canada by 2021
• Winnipeg is projected to surpass Quebec City as the 7th agglomeration in Canada by 2026
• Saskatoon is projected to surpass Windsor as the 16th agglomeration in Canada by 2026

Paul Beirne recently said in Halifax that they are aiming to get 16 teams within 10 years. Also, that initially, around 4k seats would allow the Halifax team to break even and be able to spend up to the salary cap. With tickets as low as between 10$ to 35$, it's incredibly clear that CPL business model makes it so that they aren't depending on the sales at the gates but most likely sponsorship, deep pockets owners, a league system with extensive revenue sharing and TV Contracts. This makes it even more likely that the big 3 markets will have a CPL team and that Ottawa & Edmonton will be part of the league, with or without FCE and OFFC ownership as we can see how big those markets are nationally.

This is my final prediction for a CPL table by 2030 based on population growth projection, economic activity & corporate presence, attractiveness & marketability of the markets to the rest of Canada (London draws more than Oshawa), potential rivalries and most likely meeting the league's goal to be a coast to coast league

2030 Canadian Premier League Table

• Victoria, British Columbia
• Vancouver-Surrey, British Columbia
• Calgary, Alberta
• Edmonton, Alberta
• Regina, Saskatchewan
• Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
• Winnipeg, Manitoba
• Windsor, Ontario
• London, Ontario
• Tri-City, Ontario
• Hamilton, Ontario
• Toronto, Ontario
• Ottawa, Ontario
• Montreal, Quebec
• Quebec City, Quebec
• Moncton, New Brunswick
• Halifax, Nova Scotia

1. Ontario having 6 teams makes sense as population wise, the province accounts for close to 40% of the Canadian population, hence the province having the same percentage of teams.
2. Windsor:With the city being targeted by upper governments high speed train projects, it makes Windsor an important piece of the puzzle. There's also opportunity to appeal to nearby US markets. With Detroit entry in MLS being inevitable, it's of the outmost importance that this market isn't left behind and surrendered to a MLS Detroit team
3. Saskatchewan is a very rich province with a diverse economy making it less susceptible to markets than Alberta. With the highest population growth current and projected in the country, a successful Regina team would spark interest into the larger Saskatoon with a chance to capitalize on a potential heated rivalry.
4. Moncton would be the smallest market, however, it's track record of attracting fans for soccer and an existing facility cannot be ignored. A rivalry with Halifax (anglophone) and Quebec City (Francophone) would bring even more excitement for this (bilingual) province who's right between the "two solitude"
5. So why 17 teams instead of 16? Because I believe the league will have made the economical argument by 2030 that the 3 Canadian MLS teams should be looking to come home to for a 20 team final table for Division 1. This issue will always be about 1 thing and 1 thing only: Money! There's a clear ambition by that league to be as competitive as MLS in a few years and CPL have every reasons to make that assumption. I think sooner or later, those 3 teams and the hold they have in their current markets will become the last obstacle for CPL to reach maturity, the 2026 World Cup will be a catalyst to see that happening if we win the co-hosting bid.

[matty]

19 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Paul Beirne recently said in Halifax that they are aiming to get 16 teams within 10 years. Also, that initially, around 4k seats would allow the Halifax team to break even and be able to spend up to the salary cap. With tickets as low as between 10$ to 35$, it's incredibly clear that CPL business model makes it so that they aren't depending on the sales at the gates but most likely sponsorship, deep pockets owners, a league system with extensive revenue sharing and TV Contracts. This makes it even more likely that the big 3 markets will have a CPL team and that Ottawa & Edmonton will be part of the league, with or without FCE and OFFC ownership as we can see how big those markets are nationally.

This is my final prediction for a CPL table by 2030 based on population growth projection, economic activity & corporate presence, attractiveness & marketability of the markets to the rest of Canada (London draws more than Oshawa), potential rivalries and most likely meeting the league's goal to be a coast to coast league

2030 Canadian Premier League Table

• Victoria, British Columbia
• Vancouver-Surrey, British Columbia
• Calgary, Alberta
• Edmonton, Alberta
• Regina, Saskatchewan
• Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
• Winnipeg, Manitoba
• Windsor, Ontario
• London, Ontario
• Tri-City, Ontario
• Hamilton, Ontario
• Toronto, Ontario
• Ottawa, Ontario
• Montreal, Quebec
• Quebec City, Quebec
• Moncton, New Brunswick
• Halifax, Nova Scotia

1. Ontario having 6 teams makes sense as population wise, the province accounts for close to 40%, hence the province having the same percentage of teams.
2. Windsor:With the city being targeted by upper governments high speed train projects, it makes Windsor an important piece of the puzzle. There's also opportunity to appeal to nearby US markets. With Detroit entry in MLS being inevitable, it's of the outmost importance that this market isn't left behind and surrendered to a MLS Detroit team
3. Saskatchewan is a very rich province with a diverse economy making it less susceptible to markets than Alberta. With the highest population growth current and projected in the country, a successful Regina team would spark interest into the larger Saskatoon with a chance to capitalize on a potential heated rivalry.
4. Moncton would be the smallest market, however, it's track record of attracting fans for soccer and an existing facility cannot be ignored. A rivalry with Halifax (anglophone) and Quebec City (Francophone) would bring even more excitement for this (bilingual) province who's right between the "two solitude"
5. So why 17 teams instead of 16? Because I believe the league will have made the economical argument by 2030 that the 3 Canadian MLS teams should be looking to come home to for a 20 team final table for Division 1. This issue will always be about 1 thing and 1 thing only: Money! There's a clear ambition by that league to be as competitive as MLS in a few years and CPL have every reasons to make that assumption. I think sooner or later, those 3 teams and the hold they have in their current markets will become the last obstacle for CPL to reach maturity, the 2026 World Cup will be a catalyst to see that happening if we win the co-hosting bid.

Two main issues
-Southern Ontario is greatly overcrowded (in your selection)
-This team selection doesn't work for conferences (with your selection)

I'm fairly doubtful they will reach 16 in ten years. I'm thinking 12 will be the number within a decade.

I think you've hit most of the markets still. We'll have to see

[Ansem]

55 minutes ago, matty said:

-Southern Ontario is greatly overcrowded

• As of 2011,Southern Ontario was home to over 94%, or 12.1 million, of Ontario's total population of 12.9 million people (and about 35% of Canada's total population), compared to approximately 750,000 in Northern Ontario. As of 2016, based on the estimated overall population of Ontario for Q 2017 of 14,094,167, 94% of that number means that there should be around 13,248,516 living in Southern Ontario.
• In 2015, Ontario had a GDP of approx US$570.081 billion (almost 40% of the Canadian economy)...ahead of Argentina, Sweden, Belgium, Norway, Austria & Poland. We'd be around 21st or 22nd if Ontario was it's own country and all those countries have their own league with way more than 6 teams.
• GDP per Capita for Ontario in US dollars for 2015 would be around 41k. Canada was at 45K in 2015. Meaning that we do better as a province per capita in 2015 than Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Israel, Russia and so on. So, we clearly have the overall wealth and we are in most cases have the ability to spend.

So it's not overcrowded at all. We've been conditioned for far too long to think that we were too small by "American commissioners" in all the other sports but that was BS for "we'll go to markets as big as ours and dump the rest". For other sports, it makes sense.

Being integrated with the US means bigger chance of revenues, however, soccer is a different animal. Yes our 3 teams are benefiting from being in MLS but at our national program expense. The model for other sports can't apply to soccer due to the context and history of World Cup and continental championships and their importance. The path to have a successful program was always there but Canada wrongfully assumed that replicating the same model (Canadian teams in American leagues) would work for us but it failed and doesn't work for us.The only way it works is by looking at the picture from a domestic point of view and by removing the Americans from the equation and you just need to look into Scandinavian leagues to see that there's money to be made while also helping the national program. Too bad it took that long for them to wake up but they did.

Statistics and economics would dictate that 6 is accurate for Southern Ontario, maybe not as of tomorrow but by 2030, absolutely viable based on projected population growth and the increasing number of registered soccer players surpassing hockey. If you look at the CPL project not as a fan but as an economist, I see more clearly why the reports of having that many markets interested and potential owners showing up makes sense.

CPL biggest challenge will be to convert those stats into revenue and growth for the league. If they achieve that, Beirne comment of being in MLS league is far from an exaggeration, it's very realistic. That's why being Division 1 was always the only way to maximize you're potential revenues.

 

55 minutes ago, matty said:

This team selection doesn't work for conferences

They don't need conferences. Yes it's more manageable but hardly a necessity. If you put Windsor in the west, it actually could work.    55 minutes ago, matty said: I'm fairly doubtful they will reach 16 in ten years. I'm thinking 12 will be the number within a decade. Demand will dictate that and that's up to the league to figure out how to convert all that potential into demand to attract investors.

[matty]

2 minutes ago, Ansem said:

So, we clearly have the overall wealth and and are in most cases the ability to spend. So it's not overcrowded at all. We've been conditioned to think that we were too small by "American commissioners" in all sports that we were too small and not rich enough to support most teams, but that was BS for "we'll go to markets as big as ours and dump the rest".

We have the money and population but you need the interest and ability to draw. Placing 5 teams within such a sort distance of each other could dilute fanbases and really hurt teams especially so early into the league's history.

8 minutes ago, Ansem said:

They don't need conferences. Yes it's more manageable but hardly a necessity.

They aren't needed but they will greatly benefit everyone and with the likely budgets they will be needed.

11 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Demand will dictate that and that's up to the league to figure out how to convert all that potential into demand to attract investors.

Yes it will but from what we've seen things will be done very conservatively. If a bid makes no sense there won't be a team there even if there is "demand".

[Macksam]

4 minutes ago, matty said:

We have the money and population but you need the interest and ability to draw. Placing 5 teams within such a sort distance of each other could dilute fanbases and really hurt teams especially so early into the league's history.

I don't think that should be an issue. These cities are all at the very least, an hour apart from each other.

[Gopherbashi]

8 minutes ago, matty said:

We have the money and population but you need the interest and ability to draw. Placing 5 teams within such a sort distance of each other could dilute fanbases and really hurt teams especially so early into the league's history.

You say diluting fan bases.  I say amazing rivalries.

[Ansem]

5 minutes ago, matty said:

We have the money and population but you need the interest and ability to draw. Placing 5 teams within such a sort distance of each other could dilute fanbases and really hurt teams especially so early into the league's history.

You're right about building too fast but that's why I put emphasis on 2030. You can't have 6 teams from the get go but you build your way there, team by teams as the demand grows. As for the distance, They are far away from each other and have enough local population, spending power and corporate support to have their own teams.

It's clear that CPL will not be depending on tickets to thrive or survive. They will most likely bank it heavily on TV contracts, sponsorship and merchandise. You have a better chance of having most of London buying merchandise for their own team, watching them on TV and buying tickets than hoping they will drive over 2 hours (round trip) to Hamilton, buy their stuff and watch them on TV. CPL needs viewership, sponsors and merchandise to thrive.

MLS is most likely doing the opposite by relying to much on ticket sells and merchandise as losts of them still aren't breaking even. We shouldn't be copying them. That's actually what the NHL are doing right, they don't care about empty arenas but they care way more about TV, thanks to us. Remeber Bettman freaking out because no Canadian Teams made the playoffs last year? They took an ugly hit in their wallet because we didn't watch the playoffs. If CPL understood that model, it's looking good.

As for the ability to draw, the last time Canadians we're being offered a viable Division 1 league, I barely started elementary school. Canadians had lower tier products so they treated it as such, give Canadian a top product and they will treat it as such (NHL, MLS Playoffs, Blue Jays being in the top 5 in attendance), many examples already exists.

13 minutes ago, matty said:

They aren't needed but they will greatly benefit everyone and with the likely budgets they will be needed.

Sure it helps but unbalanced conferences is nothing new. By putting Windsor west,  you could still have a conference system

14 minutes ago, matty said:

Yes it will but from what we've seen things will be done very conservatively. If a bid makes no sense there won't be a team there even if there is "demand".

Just like any other major league, ownership is the key element. If an owner doesn't pan out, you refuse the bid and wait for a better owner to be willing to invest in that market.

[lazlo_80]

I pity the moncton team that joins in 2027 when bigger cities have established clubs. That would be a hill to climb. woof.

[matty]

34 minutes ago, Macksam said:

I don't think that should be an issue. These cities are all at the very least, an hour apart from each other.

True but there are still those that travel. Gonna use some questionable numbers but they do give an idea why there should be concern.

There were around 400 Red Patch Boys in 2014 (down from 1000 in 2009). Based off of social media around 5-10% of those members lived in KW (it's hazy about actual numbers and there's no certainty that they all have tickets so I'm gonna go with 5%)

If Hamilton got a team and they had similar fan numbers from KW, a KW team could do significant harm to the Hamilton team's numbers. A sudden loss of 2-300 season ticket holders is very noticeable if you're only selling 3-4000 a season (which very realistically could be the case).

If team a in Hamilton isn't drawing enough locally that if could afford to lose the KW fans then it should be delayed until it is.

30 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

You say diluting fan bases.  I say amazing rivalries.

Without doubt they could be great but you need to be ready for it.

21 minutes ago, Ansem said:

It's clear that CPL will not be depending on tickets to thrive or survive. They will most likely bank it heavily on TV contracts, sponsorship and merchandise. You have a better chance of having most of London buying merchandise for their own team, watching them on TV and buying tickets than hoping they will drive over 2 hours (round trip) to Hamilton, buy their stuff and watch them on TV. CPL needs viewership, sponsors and merchandise to thrive.

I agree the league will not be dependant on ticket sales to survive but they will be important. Having a declining attendance hurts not just money wise but also atmosphere wise. People worry about using certain stadiums already because soccer sucks in empty stadiums and it also doesn't look good on TV and can hurt TV deals and local

21 minutes ago, Ansem said:

As for the ability to draw, the last time Canadians we're being offered a viable Division 1 league, I barely started elementary school. Canadians had lower tier products so they treated it as such, give Canadian a top product and they will treat it as such (NHL, MLS Playoffs, Blue Jays being in the top 5 in attendance), many examples already exists.

I again agree it's a joke that we don't have anything of our own that's regarded as "good" aside from the CFL. The climate is right for it now with soccer (and rugby I'd say) it just needs to be done right and I think dumping 5 teams into southern Ontario isn't the best way to do it sadly. I think building a balanced league (getting 8 teams in both West and Eastern Canada if possible) would achieve more and help teams grow safely.

3 teams might work in Southern Ontario by 2030 if they've got everything in place to succeed.

My point isn't that this cannot happen but rather it needs to be done at the right time.