Canadian Premier League

[baulderdash77]

24 minutes ago, ted said:

If you think that you could fill the rosters of CanPL teams using players from foreign leagues I have to respectfully disagree. The realistic makeup of CanPL teams in 2018 (and likely for the first five years) are kids playing right now in the USL, PDL and colleges.

Of course they will get some players to choose CanPL over D3 in Norway or whatever but that will represent, at best 25% of the roster spots.

Of course the league will improve, I AM talking about starting from scratch, and "scratch" in this context is USL/PDL/College level players. The whole point is to improve and build and someday we can all hope it becomes a true D1. It will not be that in 2018 no matter how hard you wish it to be so.

We don't know the exact teams and CanCon rules.  But let's say 6 teams and 50% for arguments sake.  That's 72 Canadian players.  Let's say Ottawa comes over with its current roster, now we need to repatriate 60 players to the league.

I bet there's only about 20 players from Europe that would come back, and maybe 35 or so of the players come from the USL and NASL with maybe 5 or 6 from L1O.  That's probably where the numbers come from more or less.

Its going to be a level of play similar to NASL/USL to start I'd say.  The pay ranges were talking about is above average for USL and about average for NASL so that's probably the player pool were drawing here.

The foreign player pool would probably  draw from the  Scandanavia, Latin America and the US I'd say.  With US players counted as foreign players there may be a more Latin and European flavour than NASL and USL.

[Ansem]

4 minutes ago, 1996 said:

It looks like the majority of people on here that would love to see the CSA force the successful pro  3 MLS Canadian  teams into the CPL or out of the MLS and probably out of soccer seem to be people  in the non MLS Canadian cities. What these 3 MLS cities have done is raise the profile of soccer in general in Canada, they have filled their stadiums on a consistent basis, showing all the soccer haters that pro soccer in Canada can fill stadiums just like the other major sports. They have spent millions raising the profile of the game to the level it has not been since the old NASL days. All the other attempts to raise the profile of the pro game in Canada after the old NASL folded  failed miserably. These  Canadian MLS teams have all spent millions on developing Canadian players through their academies and it's still way too early days to see the fruits  of their labour  yet, give these academies another 10 years before we start  criticizing them. I find it very interesting that the CFL seems to be behind some of this push for a Canadian league, the CFL would love nothing better than to have the CSA force the 3 MLS Canadian teams  out of the MLS, so that the CFL can have these three big Canadian cities all to themselves once again and not have to compete with the MLS in Canada's 3 biggest cities, because as we are seeing ever since the MLS has arrived in Canada's three big cities attendance has gone down significantly in Toronto and Vancouver and even in Montreal.

People aren't anti Canadian MLS teams, they are anti-MLS attitude towards Canada.

The CSA threat is a tool of negotiation. It's CSA reminding the MLS that they do possess some leverage to inflict damage to the MLS as that league can't afford to lose the Canadian markets.

The endgame is to force MLS to fix the Canadian player status within MLS, or else... and from the look of it, we got their attention. They've been ignoring us for close to 8 years, so you got to do what you have to do

[Complete Homer]

At the risk of posting a wall of text, I thought I might as well copy and paste a post I had made elsewhere on what my expectations for the player pool could look like. Given the lack of wiggle room, my preference would be to launch at a 30 or 40% quota at launch and escalate at 5% a year until the desired quota is met. However, this post I think is evidence that a 50% quota is imaginable without resorting to L1O or PLSQ level players, though some of these foreign names probably play at that kind of level anyway.

The post:

 

"Is the Canadian player pool big enough to support a heavily domestic CPL while maintain a decent standard? Obviously the league is still hypothetical, but I was curious to see what could be put together.

My assumptions:

• CPL launches with 8 teams

• Domestic quota of 50% Canadian rosters

• 25 man roster

• 1.5M cap = 60k average salary

• As USL players are said to earn 1500-3500 per month, with no pay in the offseason (putting salaries between 12k and 28k), I will assume will be that Canadian USL players not on a team affiliated with a Canadian MLS team will jump over if unconnected to an MLS team, with exceptions.

• As NASL salaries are usually under 40k, but bounce between 20k and 100k+, and as not all CPL teams could be assumed to play to the cap, the assumption will be that some NASL players may or may not choose to go to CPL

• No MLS players playing 500 minutes or more, or making greater than 60k, or those below the age of 24, would jump over.

• CPL launches today, not in a hypothetical scenario in 2019 where academies have pumped out more kids

• Both EdmFC and Ottawa join CPL and bring their respective Canadians along.

• 1/4 of players with a Canadian passport but playing in a nation where they also hold citizenship could move, assuming they are from a league that pays the same ball park as CPL.

• Players below 3rd tier for any nation excluding England, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France would be of too poor quality for CPL. For England, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France the 4th tier will be lowest included.

• A small draft of CIS players would result in each team picking up 1 player

At a 50% minimum Canadian roster over a 25 man roster, 13 Canadians would need to be on each team, making 104 the magic number. Is there enough?

• Non Canadian USL Team jumpers: There are 22 Canadians playing in the USL without being connected to a Canadian MLS team. Most of these are mid 20s players unlikely to make an MLS roster and are playing for the paycheck, and have little expectation that an American MLS team would take them on as an international. I expect 20 of them would move to CPL if it came available tomorrow, I excluded Laryea because I think he has a future with Orlando and Oumiette because he is no longer in the USL count. Notable players moving over would be Michael Cox (a strong goal scorer for Orlando B), Amer Didic (CB for Swope Park Rangers), Tyler Pasher (FB from Swope Park Rangers), and John Smits (GK for Wilmington). (20)

• Canadian USL Team Jumpers: While the vast majority would stay, I think there are a number of players in their mid 20s who are unlikely to make the jump to MLS that would jump for an increased paycheck. It is a bit subjective, but I would say Daniel Haber, Benjamin McKendry, Guiliano Frano, Sahil Sandu, Mark Village, and Angelo Cavalluzo. (6)

• NASL Players already on Canadian teams moving over (20)

• NASL players on non-Canadian teams that I think would move given current available information on their salaries and/or guesswork: Mason Trafford, Drew Beckie, Karl Oumiette, Nana Attakora. (4)

• MLS Players I believe might choose to move over: Chris Manella (breaking my rules here, he makes 63k, but I think would move as he likely has no future with TFC). (1)

• Player abroad who might move given the chance, that do not have dual citizenship with the country they are playing in. Salaries not available for everyone, guesses done by league averages: Gavin Hoy (2nd Tier Australia), Niko Giantsopolous (3rd tier Australia), Aklo Mairano (3rd tier Australia), Joseph Zupo (3rd tier Australia), Paris Gee (Croatian 2nd tier), Colin Jacques (Croatian 2nd tier), Evan James (Danish 3rd tier), David Velastegui (Dominican Republic), Akil De Freitas (Finnish 3rd tier), Miguel Remero (Finnish 3rd tier), Cannigia Elva (German 3rd tier), Andre Hainult (German 3rd tier), Bryce Alderson (German 4th tier), Randy Edwini-Bonsu (German 4th tier), Caleb Clarke (German 4th tier), Jelani Smith (German 4th tier), Amraj Lally (2nd tier Greece), Jordian Farahani (Icelandic 3rd tier), Daniel Kuczynski (Icelandic 3rd tier), Billy Bitihene (Italian 4th tier), Dejan Jakovic (Japanese 2nd tier), Tristan Grant (Malta 1st tier), Issey Nakajima-Farran (Malysian 1st tier), Godwin Addai (New Zealand 1st tier), Nathaniel Foster-Bowen (New Zealand 1st tier), Abdual Ibrahim (New Zealand 2nd tier), Adam Straith (Norwegian 2nd tier), Lars Hirschfield (Norwegian 2nd tier), Dieu-Merci Yuma (Portuguese 3rd tier), Luca Gasparatto (Scottish 2nd tier), Samuel Piette (Spainish 4th tier), Roger Thompson (Swedish 2nd tier), Hanson Bokai (Swedish 3rd tier) (33)

• Players abroad who might move but also count as domestic (ie. Dual national in country, EU citizen playing in Europe, etc) in the country they are playing in. Assuming that only 1/4 players in this pool would be interested in coming back: Arlind Ferhati (2nd tier Albania), Tom Heward-Belle (1st tier Australia), Marin Peric (3rd tier Austria), Axel Bossekota (Belgium 2nd tier), Boris Gavric (Bosnian 2nd tier), Kevan Aleman (can’t find salary data for Costa Rica), Jordan Wilson (Danish 3rd tier), Omar Amador (El Salvador 1st tier), Jesse McLean (Finnish 3rd tier), Christopher Suta (Finnish 3rd tier), Haider Al-Shabani (French 4th tier), La’Vere Corbin-Ong (German 3rd tier), Haris Kevac (German 4th tier), Marvis Kreitling (German 4th tier), Dnaiel Stanese (German 4th tier), Massih Wassey (German 4th tier), James Stamopoulos (Greek 2nd tier), Spyros Stergiotis (Greek 3rd tier), Eirkur Raphael Elvy (Icelandic 2nd Tier), Corey Chambers (Irish 1st tier), Dante Pavan (Italian 4th tier), Lucas Di lorio (Italian 4th tier), Matthew Morina (Italian 4th tier), Nikolas Kras (Italian 4th tier), Quante Abott Hill-Smith (Jamaican 1st tier), Jacob Ethan Therrien (Jamaican 1st tier), Ahmed El Khatib (Lebanese 1st tier), Gaetano Gesualdi (Malta 2nd tier), Matthew Groves (Maltese 2nd tier), Dylan Micallef (Maltese 2nd tier), Connor McFall (Northern Ireland 1st tier), Daniel Marinho (Portuguese 2nd tier), David Dins (Portuguese 3rd tier), Stephen Eustaquio (Portuguese 3rd tier), Mark Hluszkw (Portuguese 3rd tier), Jeffrey Pereira (Portuguese 3rd tier), Mike Pereira (Portugeuse 3rd tier), Calum Ferguson (Scottish 1st tier), Marcus Godhino (Scottish 1st tier), Harrison Paton (Scottish 1st tier), Dario Zanatta (Scottish 1st Tier), Marko Jankovic (Serbian 2nd tier), Jovan Lucic (Serbian 3rd tier), Ian Hume (Spainish 2nd tier), Cafik Naceri (Spainish 2nd tier), Bakr Abdellaoui (Spainish 3rd tier), Tomer Chencinski (Swedish 1st tier), Kenny Stamatopolous (Swedish 1st tier), Andreas Vaikla (Swedish 1st tier), Jonathan Viscosi (Swedish 3d tier), Lucas Cavallini (Uruguay 1st tier), Martin Amuz (Uruguayan 1st tier), Jerome Smith (Uruguayan 1st tier), Ryan Zamora (Uruguayan 1st tier), Juan Cruz Mascia (Uruguayan 2nd tier), Gianluca Scorzafave (Uruguayan 2nd tier), Michael Pugh (Welsh 3rd tier), Matt Lam (Hong Kong), Landon Ling (Hong Kong) (59*1/4=14.75 -> 15)

• Stretches, guys who have expressed interest in a Canadian return that might be interested in a high-end CPL contract (150-200k): Milan Borjan (1)

• Assumed CIS draftees (8)

All that, while maybe a bit optimistic, adds up to 108 players. While it looks If best case scenario is 108 players coming over to the league, which hits the target, it could be better to have a domestic quota that increases gradually at set intervals, such as 30% Canadian content the first 5 years, 40% next five years, and 50% from ten years on."

[Complete Homer]

^ The post also assumed that there would be no growth in the pool by 2018, which is not the case, but I don't think it is reasonable to make any guesses.

I also don't pretend to know how good many of these guys are. I'm pretty certain 3rd tier Welsh league is no better than L1O, but it was just a demonstration of what I think the pool could support if launched today.

In reality, I think a 40% quota would be easily supportable, especially supplemented by L1O and its equivalents for squad depth. An escalating quota would be feasible if each squad only picked up 1.25 new Canadians each year via their own academies, an annual single round CIS draft, NCAA players who didn't make MLS, top L1O/PLSQ/etc players, and the annual shedding of MLS academy dissappointments

[ted]

45 minutes ago, shermanator said:

I would argue that the CPL could get players on MLS / NASL contracts that are not getting minutes with the first team, but could be seen as too good for the reserve teams, via loan agreements. Current players that could fit the mould are: Roberts, Babouli, Adekugbe, McKendry, Bustos, Froese, Levis, Davies, Lefevre, Choiniere, Jackson-Hamel, Gagnon-Lapare, Crepeau, Laryea, Conte, de Bellis, Zebie, Farago and Aleksic.

If the CPL is aiming for an NASL caliber of play, and based on the rumoured numbers thrown about by Rollins et al that's what it sounds like, then I think this is where there can be mutual gains for both parties. MLS get minutes for their depth players at a better quality of player than what they have for their reserve teams, and CPL get better quality of Canadian players than what would be available at the USL / PDL level.

Yeah, I could see that, if MLS and NASL see CanPL as a positive thing.

That said, are there enough players in the situation you describe to make up more than 50% of the rosters for 8 teams?  I honestly don't know and while I suspect not I would be happy to be proved wrong.

[Complete Homer]

15 minutes ago, ted said:

^ Yeah, I could see that, if MLS and NASL see CanPL as a positive thing.

That said, are there enough players in the situation you describe to make up more than 50% of the rosters for 8 teams?  I honestly don't know and while I suspect not I would be happy to be proved wrong.

More than 50% would require some or all of the following (depending on the %)

1) More dual nationals coming home. I love Canuck_Abroad's database, but I am not willing to bet the majority would come home. Maybe bump 1/4 to 1/3 if we are optimistic.

2) More CIS draftees, say 2 per team annually.

3) L10/PLSQ/etc players relied on. Say 2 per team.

4) Maybe some established CMNTers come home because they want to support the league (who knows, maybe 1 or 2 total)

That would bring us to 139 players, or 69.5% of the league. Anything more would require heavier reliance on L1O/PLSQ/PDL/CIS players that would significantly lower the quality of the league, which doesn't help league appeal or provide a good environment for academy products. Hence my strong support for an escalating quota starting at 30 or 40%

 

EDIT: However, I think it is completely feasible to add 5% (1.25 players) per year. Given that they have their own academies, will have emerging L1O/etc players to poach, annual shedding from MLS academies that only sign one or two top players, and the CIS, adding 1.25 Canadian players to your roster should not be that difficult. Considering that the MLS academies are improving, the rejects are also becoming of higher quality, so this escalation will not necessarily lower the league's quality as we wait for CPL academies to start pumping out players

[matty]

Just a reminder of Canadians in NCAA that go undrafted by MLS.

[Complete Homer]

2 minutes ago, matty said:

Just a reminder of Canadians in NCAA that go undrafted by MLS.

True, I forgot them

[baulderdash77]

With your math and a 6 team league, we only need 78 players and our player pool is more than enough, especially if Ottawa jumps.  If Edmonton jumps and we're only looking for 52 new players than the 50% quota is very easy to manage.  The bottom line is that we have a large enough player pool of guys at USL or higher levels that could fill the league.

The overall standard of the league I think would be better than USL and comparable to NASL and depending on which league we fill he rest of the rosters with it may be even better.

[Complete Homer]

5 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

With your math and a 6 team league, we only need 78 players and our player pool is more than enough, especially if Ottawa jumps.  If Edmonton jumps and we're only looking for 52 new players than the 50% quota is very easy to manage.  The bottom line is that we have a large enough player pool of guys at USL or higher levels that could fill the league.

The overall standard of the league I think would be better than USL and comparable to NASL and depending on which league we fill he rest of the rosters with it may be even better.

Remember this also hinges on Rollin's report of a 1.5 million dollar cap, and therefore a 60k average salary over a 25 man roster, is true. Despite my optimism for CPL, I don't consider Rollins' report on the expected cap from a couple years ago to be necessarily accurate, considering how much this has likely developed since then. I believe it is completely feasible, but if that number were dropped to 1 million and average pay was 45k, I think you lose interest from a lot of people on that list.

Edit: It ALSO means that any expansion teams have their work cut out for them. I imagine expansion teams might have relaxed requirements for a period after launch (just like MLS is considering) due a strain on a limited supply of players

[matty]

I'm more curious about the drafts than anything else really. Mostly how dependant will the league be on the CIS, L1O and PLSQ early on for talent and will there be a deal with MLS for NCAA players.

[Viruk42]

1 minute ago, matty said:

will there be a deal with MLS for NCAA players.

Does there need to be a deal? NCAA players are free agents when they leave, no?

[Complete Homer]

1 minute ago, matty said:

I'm more curious about the drafts than anything else really. Mostly how dependant will the league be on the CIS, L1O and PLSQ early on for talent and will there be a deal with MLS for NCAA players.

I don't think CIS has enough talent for more than a one round draft. Maybe a two round draft considering lots of players playing varsity have no interest in a pro career and some draftees would rather be dentists

NCAA/L1O/PLSQ would all be free to move, I assume, unless they sign enforceable contracts in L1O and PLSQ

[shermanator]

41 minutes ago, ted said:

Yeah, I could see that, if MLS and NASL see CanPL as a positive thing.

That said, are there enough players in the situation you describe to make up more than 50% of the rosters for 8 teams?  I honestly don't know and while I suspect not I would be happy to be proved wrong.

I think you would be right on that. There could also be the odd MLS player that could be swayed to the league with a guarantee of every day playing time.

Ashtone Morgan is the prime example of this. The guy is MLS calibre, a quality depth piece at TFC, but he won't be getting starts anytime soon as long as Justin Morrow is around. If the CPL can offer a comparable salary and make him a focal point of the league, that could be attractive enough. Ouimette, and to a lesser extent, Ricketts could fit this bill as well.

Then you have the Canadian internationals who have some talent or potential, but don't have a particularly stable or lucrative club situation who could be potentially swayed as well: Haber, James, Piette, Straith, Aparicio, Hume, Monsalve as some examples.

[matty]

2 minutes ago, Viruk42 said:

Does there need to be a deal? NCAA players are free agents when they leave, no?

Yes but I'm more curious about if a MLS team drafts somebody and a CPL team will be able to also draft them to gain first rights to sign said player should the MLS ultimately pass on them or let them go in the near future. 

[Ruffian]

Look at the minimum wages of the Bulgarian league! (Squiz found) This is about 12K CAD a year. I assume the CPL would have some players on wages that low.

 

[baulderdash77]

I did a quick salary breakdown- if the cap was 1.5 million, with a 24 person roster and a 40k min salary you end up with salaries ranging from 40-100k with starters averaging about 80k and backup averaging about 45k.

With those wage rates you will find plenty of our European players come back to Canada and you can also attract decent talent from Latin America. 

 

[Rheo]

22 minutes ago, Viruk42 said:

Does there need to be a deal? NCAA players are free agents when they leave, no?

My guess is it'll be CFL-like where they'll retain rights if they draft them from NCAA and go to the NFL instead

[ted]

OMG Please stop talking about a draft!

That is one American innovation that we do NOT need in this league. We already have a salary cap to encourage parity in the league, we don't need indentured servitude added to the mix.

Yes, it does mean kids will be signing pro contracts earlier. That is a good thing. They should be part of the pro system from 16 years old anyway and following FIFA rules for payments to youth clubs for development will encourage good development at tat level.

[Viruk42]

1 minute ago, Ruffian said:

Look at the minimum wages of the Bulgarian league! (Squiz found) This is about 12K CAD a year. I assume the CPL would have some players on wages that low.

 

The problem with things like this is it ignores cost of living. Apparently you can get a decent one bedroom in Sofia's city centre for ~220 euros a month. Good luck finding a decent one bedroom in most Canadian cities for the equivalent ~350$

[rob.notenboom]

Not sure if it was mentioned above (I read the vast majority ... some nice work on the potential player pool folks), but mentioned this morning on Soccer Today was that there is a nameless Toronto billionaire involved in the potential Toronto team. Mitch Goldhar? Frank Stronach? I'm not terribly familiar with Toronto billionaires, but it can't be a huge number of people. 

On another note, I'm not sure why everyone is so keen to debate the likelihood/merits of the nuclear option (MLS clubs in Canada being unsanctioned). Doesn't it seem much more likely that MLS clubs stay and keep working on their clubs & academies while CanPL does its own thing? To me it does. 

Heck, the ability to loan a few of their down roster players, or top academy players to a CanPL team might actually appeal to the three Canadian MLS teams. 

[Complete Homer]

5 minutes ago, ted said:

OMG Please stop talking about a draft!

That is one American innovation that we do NOT need in this league. We already have a salary cap to encourage parity in the league, we don't need indentured servitude added to the mix.

Yes, it does mean kids will be signing pro contracts earlier. That is a good thing. They should be part of the pro system from 16 years old anyway and following FIFA rules for payments to youth clubs for development will encourage good development at tat level.

In this setting it would be more about creating a structured pathway from CIS to CPL, rather than a player hoping that he gets noticed without an agent or real coverage. If teams get signing rights, there's at least motivation to send one scout around. Considering we are also accounting for academies and lower level leagues, a draft would be a minor route to give kids who chose college one last way to commit to soccer before entering the workforce

But for the sake of argument, say approximately 8 players are "discovered"  and signed by the CPL teams each year, not drafted, to contribute to the pool I suggested 

[Viruk42]

4 minutes ago, ted said:

OMG Please stop talking about a draft!

That is one American innovation that we do NOT need in this league. We already have a salary cap to encourage parity in the league, we don't need indentured servitude added to the mix.

Yes, it does mean kids will be signing pro contracts earlier. That is a good thing. They should be part of the pro system from 16 years old anyway and following FIFA rules for payments to youth clubs for development will encourage good development at tat level.

While I don't entirely disagree, the power of agents in football is both incredible and disgusting. I'd kind of rather have a draft-type system than end up with agents renegotiating contracts every 6 months purely so they can get a bonus, or trying to agitate players to move so they can get a different bonus. 

[Rheo]

It's a North American league, there will be a draft like it not.  That will be followed like Franchise vs Club model and relegation by a 40 page arguement on the board lol

[Ruffian]

Just now, Rheo said:

It's a North American league, there will be a draft like it not.  That will be followed like Franchise vs Club model and relegation by a 40 page arguement on the board lol

I agree. Also the investors likely will be used to franchise structures like CFL and other North American sports leagues and will expect control of players as assets for their organisations.