2015 Impact Season

[Dub Narcotic]

Montreal and Toronto fans seem to love to blame MLS for every perceived failing in their club. All of these new clubs like NYCFC and Orlando City seem to be able to generate great crowds and atmospheres despite all of this alleged MLS fan oppression.

 

Maybe it's just time to say that a lot of Canadian soccer fans aren't that interested in domestic club (or international) soccer and can content themselves with watching the big club and international games on television. Montreal, Edmonton and Ottawa all have completely shit attendances and the USL 2 teams aren't drawing good crowds at all either. Obviously these clubs aren't helping themselves with results (Ottawa and Edmonton propping up the NASL spring table *again*, Montreal the worst MLS team last year, the USL teams all at the bottom, etc..), but you see American fans still coming out to support teams like Indy 11 and Philadelphia Union that haven't seen much success either. Surely Montreal's cup run and solid roster revamp deserves a bit more credit from Montreal fans than the 10,000 fans they got on Saturday.

[mtlfan]

Playing final at Olympic Stadium was a marketing mistake by the Impact. The opportunity to have new fans experience Stade Saputo (along with giving the Impact an advantage of the weather factor over Club America) is something I brought up to the sales department, The 3 I spoke to all were disappointed that the game was not at Saputo. Yes it was a great to have 61000 in attendance but short sighted. When I look around the stadium I see that the marketing department missed getting the attention of the 25-35 age bracket. Of course if I look at the management of the team led by NDS during the first 3 years I have the same feeling about Richard Legendre. Is Saputo competent enough to recognize this? I doubt it giving that he promoted NDS to VP. 

[Blackdude]

Playing final at Olympic Stadium was a marketing mistake by the Impact. The opportunity to have new fans experience Stade Saputo (along with giving the Impact an advantage of the weather factor over Club America) is something I brought up to the sales department, The 3 I spoke to all were disappointed that the game was not at Saputo. Yes it was a great to have 61000 in attendance but short sighted. When I look around the stadium I see that the marketing department missed getting the attention of the 25-35 age bracket. Of course if I look at the management of the team led by NDS during the first 3 years I have the same feeling about Richard Legendre. Is Saputo competent enough to recognize this? I doubt it giving that he promoted NDS to VP. 

 

I disagree that it was a marketing mistake. Had they played at Saputo, I don't think that it would have helped more the Impact in selling more seats. How many of the 15K at the final without season ticketes would have gone more because of the final at Saputo? I just don't think that it would have made a difference where the team played the final IMHO. One problem was that media talked a lot about the Champions League run, but not a lot about MLS and people didn't know that the Impact still have tons of games to play. They put so much attention to the CCL that they forgot about MLS and that was part of the problem.

[Kurt-MTL]

Although I agree with most of Grizzly's post, I think some of the attendance issues come down to whether people consider it to be "big-time" or not. Although MLS is the highest-level in North America, that doesn't necessarily make it a "high enough" level for some people. As much as we hate the idea of fair-weather fans coming out for the celebrities and big events, I think Dub Narcotic might have a fair point about there just not being a huge market for domestic soccer here. That's not to say that if a club markets itself well, has solid players with decent name/brand recognition, and is reasonably successful on the field that it won't work (especially if backed by deep-pocketed owners). For instance, I think if the Impact had managed to sign Gilardino as was being rumoured, attendance would be higher. Again, it's all about perceptions.. 

[Keegan]

The team needs to make a splash.  Piatti is one of the best players in the league but he's not a name.. get yourselves a name and I think you'll see a consistent boost to attendance.  It wouldn't hurt if that player could combine with Piatti as well, you can tell he doesn't want to pass the ball to his teammates and I could be wrong but last year he seemed more favourable to Di Vaio.   

[Trillium]

Saputo will be fine worst case sell the MLS franchise for 150 million USD, and invest the resulting 180 CDN @5% for nine million a year...run a NASL franchise and make deep runs in CCL every year six 40k games in Big O at 1,200,000 gate brings in 7 million, plus other revenue...could see in bad years 15 million and in good 18 million. Buys a lot of player talent to get folks out to the big events and leaves the 10 to 12k core supporters lots of games in NASL..vs Cosmos, Miami,Ottawa etc., would it be MLS no, would it be as good on the pitch, very likely and if Voyagures cup became a six team home and away, you get to play TFC and Vancouver in V cup...potential big games if properly marketed. Saputo has options, short and long term. If someone smart puts a NASL club in the GTA....even better.

[Keegan]

1. There is no way Saputo would get $150 million USD for the Impact.  Chivas was sold for $25 million as a reference.

2. If MLS ever bought Montreal there would definitely be a clause that Saputo couldn't start up a competing team in Montreal

 

So you would sell a 20+ year old club to MLS and start fresh because of an attendance blip? Montreal can get this right 100%, they just had 60,000 to a match less than a month ago.  Obviously the marketing team needs to step it up a bit first and foremost but Saputo should make a smart player purchase as well.  

[Trillium]

1. There is no way Saputo would get $150 million USD for the Impact.  Chivas was sold for $25 million as a reference.

2. If MLS ever bought Montreal there would definitely be a clause that Saputo couldn't start up a competing team in Montreal

 

So you would sell a 20+ year old club to MLS and start fresh because of an attendance blip? Montreal can get this right 100%, they just had 60,000 to a match less than a month ago.  Obviously the marketing team needs to step it up a bit first and foremost but Saputo should make a smart player purchase as well.  

 

 

Keegan...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith/2013/11/20/major-league-soccers-most-valuable-teams/

 

Montreal valued at 96 million as of 2013, with growth of 175% in value of MLS franchises in previous years ... 175% / 5 = 35% value increase per year.

 

2013 value 96 milliion X 1.35 = 129.6 million in 2014 X 1.35 = 174,96 million ...in 2015.

 

So a valuation of 150 million seems reasonable.

 

If Saputo sold the franchise to be moved to US city... along with players etc. MLS would not be able to restrict him from running a franchise in Montreal in NASL. They would not be looking to have a Montreal based franchise replace Saputo in any case, cause they would need a stadium investment on top of the selling fee to a new franchise owner, and thats not happening in Montreal. So a sale to US interests for team to move, leaving Saputo to run a NASL franchise and go after CCL income and V Cup income.

 

Chivas 25 million was price MLS paid out to regain the franchise, it was then sold to LAFC investors for a reported 110 million.

http://www.thegoatparade.com/2014/11/26/7297571/lafc-reportedly-paid-highest-mls-expansion-fee-in-history

 

Cities who might buy in and who MLS would accept moving a franchise too ?

 

Probably eight available locations.

 

Here is listing of top 50 metro areas in USA.

 

 

Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area 2014 Estimate 2010 Census Change Encompassing Combined Statistical Area 7000100000000000000♠1 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 20,092,883 19,567,410 7000268544993946570♠+2.69% New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA Combined Statistical Area 7000200000000000000♠2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 13,262,220 12,828,837 7000337819398593960♠+3.38% Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area 7000300000000000000♠3 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 9,554,598 9,461,105 6999988182669994670♠+0.99% Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area 7000400000000000000♠4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 6,954,330 6,426,214 7000821815146523290♠+8.22% Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK Combined Statistical Area 7000500000000000000♠5 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 6,490,180 5,920,416 7000962371563079350♠+9.62% Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area 7000600000000000000♠6 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 6,051,170 5,965,343 7000143876052056020♠+1.44% Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD Combined Statistical Area 7000700000000000000♠7 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 6,033,737 5,636,232 7000705267277855130♠+7.05% Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area 7000800000000000000♠8 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5,929,819 5,564,635 7000656258676445090♠+6.56% Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, FL Combined Statistical Area 7000900000000000000♠9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5,614,323 5,286,728 7000619655484450870♠+6.20% Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA Combined Statistical Area 7001100000000000000♠10 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area 4,732,161 4,552,402 7000394866270597370♠+3.95% Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area 7001110000000000000♠11 San Francisco–Oakland–Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4,594,060 4,335,391 7000596645146885250♠+5.97% San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area 7001120000000000000♠12 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 4,489,109 4,192,887 7000706486962324530♠+7.06%   7001130000000000000♠13 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4,441,890 4,224,851 7000513719892133480♠+5.14% Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area 7001140000000000000♠14 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4,296,611 4,296,250 6997840267675297209♠+0.01% Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI Combined Statistical Area 7001150000000000000♠15 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 3,671,478 3,439,809 7000673493789916820♠+6.73% Seattle-Tacoma, WA Combined Statistical Area 7001160000000000000♠16 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 3,495,176 3,348,859 7000436915976456460♠+4.37% Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Combined Statistical Area 7001170000000000000♠17 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 3,263,431 3,095,313 7000543137317615370♠+5.43%   7001180000000000000♠18 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,915,582 2,783,243 7000475484892982750♠+4.75%   7001190000000000000♠19 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,806,207 2,787,701 6999663844508431870♠+0.66% St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL Combined Statistical Area 7001200000000000000♠20 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,785,874 2,710,489 7000278123246395760♠+2.78% Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area 7001210000000000000♠21 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,754,258 2,543,482 7000828690747565740♠+8.29% Denver-Aurora, CO Combined Statistical Area 7001220000000000000♠22 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,380,314 2,217,012 7000736585999534510♠+7.37% Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC Combined Statistical Area 7001230000000000000♠23 Pittsburgh, PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,355,968 2,356,285 3001865466189361670♠−0.01% Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV Combined Statistical Area 7001240000000000000♠24 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,348,247 2,226,009 7000549135246083910♠+5.49% Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA Combined Statistical Area 7001250000000000000♠25 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,328,652 2,142,508 7000868813558689159♠+8.69%   7001260000000000000♠26 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,321,418 2,134,411 7000876152718478310♠+8.76% Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL Combined Statistical Area 7001270000000000000♠27 Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,244,397 2,149,127 7000443296277977060♠+4.43% Sacramento-Roseville, CA Combined Statistical Area 7001280000000000000♠28 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,149,449 2,114,580 7000164897993927870♠+1.65% Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville, OH-KY-IN Combined Statistical Area 7001290000000000000♠29 Kansas City, MO-KS Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,071,133 2,009,342 7000307518580709500♠+3.08% Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS Combined Statistical Area 7001300000000000000♠30 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,069,681 1,951,269 7000606846108865560♠+6.07% Las Vegas-Henderson, NV-AZ Combined Statistical Area 7001310000000000000♠31 Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 2,063,598 2,077,240 3000343263176137559♠−0.66% Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH Combined Statistical Area 7001320000000000000♠32 Columbus, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,994,536 1,901,974 7000486662804013090♠+4.87% Columbus-Marion-Zanesville, OH Combined Statistical Area 7001330000000000000♠33 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,971,274 1,887,877 7000441750177580420♠+4.42% Indianapolis-Carmel-Muncie, IN Combined Statistical Area 7001340000000000000♠34 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,952,872 1,836,911 7000631282626104370♠+6.31% San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area 7001350000000000000♠35 Austin-Round Rock, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,943,299 1,716,289 7001132267933896910♠+13.23%   7001360000000000000♠36 Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,792,649 1,670,890 7000728707455308250♠+7.29% Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro, TN Combined Statistical Area 7001370000000000000♠37 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,716,624 1,676,822 7000237365683417800♠+2.37% Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC Combined Statistical Area 7001380000000000000♠38 Providence-Warwick, RI-MA Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,609,367 1,600,852 6999531904260981019♠+0.53% Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area 7001390000000000000♠39 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,572,245 1,555,908 7000104999781478080♠+1.05% Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha, WI Combined Statistical Area 7001400000000000000♠40 Jacksonville, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,419,127 1,345,596 7000546456737386260♠+5.46% Jacksonville-St. Marys-Palatka, FL-GA Combined Statistical Area 7001410000000000000♠41 Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,343,230 1,324,829 7000138893396808190♠+1.39% Memphis-Forrest City, TN-MS-AR Combined Statistical Area 7001420000000000000♠42 Oklahoma City, OK Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,336,767 1,252,987 7000668642212568850♠+6.69% Oklahoma City-Shawnee, OK Combined Statistical Area 7001430000000000000♠43 Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,269,702 1,235,708 7000275097353096360♠+2.75% Louisville/Jefferson County–Elizabethtown–Madison, KY-IN Combined Statistical Area 7001440000000000000♠44 Richmond, VA Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,260,029 1,208,101 7000429831611760940♠+4.30%   7001450000000000000♠45 New Orleans-Metairie, LA Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,251,849 1,189,866 7000520924204910469♠+5.21% New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS Combined Statistical Area 7001460000000000000♠46 Raleigh, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,242,974 1,130,490 7000995002167201830♠+9.95% Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Combined Statistical Area 7001470000000000000♠47 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,214,295 1,212,381 6999157871164262710♠+0.16% Hartford-West Hartford, CT Combined Statistical Area 7001480000000000000♠48 Salt Lake City, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,153,340 1,087,873 7000601788995590480♠+6.02% Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT Combined Statistical Area 7001490000000000000♠49 Birmingham-Hoover, AL Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,143,772 1,128,047 7000139400220026290♠+1.39% Birmingham-Hoover-Talladega, AL Combined Statistical Area 7001500000000000000♠50 Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY Metropolitan Statistical Area 1,136,360 1,135,509 6998749443641574030♠+0.07% Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Combined Statistical Area

 

Pick your posion .. I would think San Diego even if folks do follow Mexican league there, then Sacramento, and Riverside California even as LAFC comes on line Riverside might be viable and far enough from Central and South LA to have its own catchement area.

 

Detroit is tantalizing cause stadium land would be cheap...and downtown is gentrifying with 24 to 40 year olds moving to core to take advantage of cheap housing leaving them lots of disposable income. Pittsburg might be another city not normally in the top of mind, but it could support an MLS team and add to the mid states teams, Chicago and Columbus...

 

Then there are the NASL cites looking to make jump, Indy, San Antonio etc. lots of options.

 

So to summarize if and I say if Saputo decided there was not a long term positive cash flow from his operation in MLS he has lots of upside to run his stadium with NASL, ( on natural turf ) adding in Men's and Women's National team games, both exhibition and qualifiers. Then the allure of CCL runs that he could sustain by building a strong NASL side with MLS and better quality players he could afford with his war chest generating income from investments.

 

If MLS has set a limit of 24 teams i.e. four more then present, three spots are spoken for, so one up for a new club ...frozen at 24 for a couple of years will create a demand for other cities and potential investors who would look to buy and move a franchise.

 

Remember MLS came to Saputo more then he chased MLS, and part of his payment was money he put into stadia he owns, so he probably paid under 30 million,

 

http://www.nationalpost.com/franchise+high+Impact/988999/story.html

 

If you buy a share for $30.00 and can sell it for $175,00 and the share pays no dividends or only pays a 2% dividend ( ie. a profict of 3.5 million a year ) and will not be climbing much higher in value... you probably sell if you are a prudent investor. Especially if your new property costs 1 million ( NASL fee, and we do not know if Saputo retains a NASL franchise right ). That one million can produce 3.5 to 5 million a year profit ... a substantial value proposition.

 

Remember a CCL game in a sold out Olympic stadium 60,000 X $30 to $40 dollar average ticket price so 1.8 to 2.4 million revenue on expenses of 30% of gate to open doors ...can produce over 1.5 million revenue after expenses.

 

 

[Obinna]

So impact had a big victory of FCD this weekend. That is two in a row. Have they turned the corner or are they poised for a high draft pick again?

[Obinna]

So impact had a big victory over FCD this weekend. That is two in a row. Have they turned the corner or are they poised for a high draft pick again?

[Obinna]

That is what happens when you hit the quote button instead of the edit button when fixing a typo. Mods, can I delete this post using the mobile version?

[jonovision]

So impact had a big victory of FCD this weekend. That is two in a row. Have they turned the corner or are they poised for a high draft pick again?

 

May be too early to say they have turned a corner, but it might also have been too early for most people to have been writing them off after only 4 or 5 MLS games. Impact are basically on the same pace Toronto was through their first 7 matches.

 

If Piatti and Ciman can remain healthy and play the bulk of the season this team will be fine. Mallace has been impressive, in my opinion. Romero too.

[tmcmurph]

On a points per game basis all 3 Canadian teams are above the line. TFC (1.3) is 5th and Monteal (1.14) is 6th in the east on a PPG rating (Caps at 1.54 and 3rd out west).

 

When they missed the number of games that they did to play the CCL then there is bound to be few points. How they will handle the rest of the season with a lot of matches to catch up on is the real question. I hope the squad is deep and the coach utilizes some smart rotations.

[Keegan]

Forbes valuation has little to do with the $ you would receive for the franchise.  If Montreal approaches MLS and goes "Hey, we just feel like selling no real reason.. here's Forbes value we'll just take that and be on our way" they would be laughed out.  If someone were to approach the Impact with a bid when they don't intend on selling that's probably the value that could be tabled for the franchise but if they are trying to sell.. especially to a league that already technically owns the club good luck getting more than your franchise fee +10%.   

[El Hombre]

^ I couldn't stop thinking of this during that whole Forbes valuation:

 

[BuzzAndSting]

Forbes valuation has little to do with the $ you would receive for the franchise.  If Montreal approaches MLS and goes "Hey, we just feel like selling no real reason.. here's Forbes value we'll just take that and be on our way" they would be laughed out.  If someone were to approach the Impact with a bid when they don't intend on selling that's probably the value that could be tabled for the franchise but if they are trying to sell.. especially to a league that already technically owns the club good luck getting more than your franchise fee +10%.   

 

Totally agree. Also with the league already publicly stating that they're considering more expansion any current team looking to sell is going to have to compete with the idea of a brand new franchise. Should the Saputo's decide to sell the only likely buyer would be someone local, interested in running the team in Montreal. If that's group or person is out there, who knows.

[mtlfan]

Saputo won't sell as he will have nothing else to do. He has more money than he can ever spend in his lifetime. I don't think his management style would work at his dad's company. As an example firing someone and then promoting the same person to vice president. 

[BuzzAndSting]

Another win tonight but another bad crowd. Seemed like almost entire sections empty in the end opposite the supporters.

The team looks to be rolling now. Lot's of games in hand so hopefully a few more wins and right back into the playoff picture.

Tissot and Jackson-Hamel came on and both played great. Piatti is something special, he should have had a couple.

[Dub Narcotic]

Yes, Klopas has done a very nice building this team with in-MLS acquisitions. This is easily the best roster Monteal has had since they joined MLS and they play a pretty attractive style of soccer. Hopefully the fans will start coming out again.

[Soccerpro]

Winning at home is great, let's see a road win before we start talking about playoffs.

[shamrock]

Winning at home is great, let's see a road win before we start talking about playoffs.

 

You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[Ruud]

Montreal Forum talk show dedicated a whole show on attendance to matches - besides hard-core soccer fans, Im just not sure Saputo stadium draws neutrals (or non fans) the way BMO does.  Plus, no Beckham or Henry on the card to bring out the average Habs fan who knows something about soccer.

 

That said, 12,000 isnt terrible - and I agree a run of results, including an away win, would help.  Maybe a bit more marketing on Piatti, who is a real gem of a player.

 

Giovinco looking worth $7 million if they can sell tickets to fill the stands on his name alone.  He's turning heads around the league, which MLS needs badly.  Not sure Lampard or Gerrard have the skill set to attract fans (besides the name) the way Henry could.

[Ruud]

Jackson-Hamel seemed to make a decent impression on Wednesday night.  Same for Tissot.  Did anyone see that game up close to confirm?  

 

What are his prospects going forward?  And are we going to see anything from Gagnon-Laparé

[shermanator]

An average attendance of 12000 would put the Impact at the bottom of MLS in that regard. Not sure how that is anything but disappointing in the slightest?

 

Regarding JGL, I imagine he will mostly play with FC Montreal this year, with Donadel and Bernier both above him on the depth chart.

[Ruud]

True - but how to market MLS in this town, with lack of name brand players and little draw from other MLS teams.  I look forward to seeing Larin and Kaka, but I'm not even sure Kaka has name-brand to the average Joe.  Seattle you'd think would be a sell-out - given Obefemi and Dempsey, but I'm not even sure about that.