CONCACAF to move to South American Qualifying?

[Moldy9]

I like the idea of more games. I don't like the idea of Jack Warner finding a new way to screw Canada though but I believe with this new format we will have a equal playing field as opposed to us always being selected in the group of death. The only thing I want to know is who is representing us, CSA, at these meetings and what is the CSA's take?

[Toronto Ruffrider]

Id guess it would be, take 35 down to 24 (11vs11) for preliminary round, so 13 teams get a bye. Then 6 groups of 4 maybe, then 3 groups of 4, then the hex? Im hoping somehow the final group turns into a group of 8.

Assuming you're correct, I could see the draw/qualifying procedure looking something like this:

Pot A: Teams 1-6

Pot B: Teams 7-12

Pot C: Teams 13-24 (team 13 gets a bye to Round 2)

Pot D: Teams 25-35

Round 1: 11 vs. 11 knockout round. The winner of each tie advances to Round 2.

Round 2: 6 groups of 4 teams. Each group consists of one team from Pot A, one team from Pot B, and two teams from Pot C/D which advanced past Round 1 or received a bye. The top two teams from each group advance to Round 3.

Round 3: 3 groups of 4 teams (standard semi-final stage). Each group consists of two group winners and two group runners-up from Round 2 (I imagine some sort of crossover procedure will be in effect). The top two teams from each group advance to Round 4.

Round 4: Standard hex (six teams).

Given the sheer number of games that would have to be played in each group stage, it would be less likely for a team ranked 13th or worse in CONCACAF to squeak into the semi-final stage (Round 3). Thus, the field for Round 3 would be pretty easy to predict. The more predictable a qualifying round is, the easier it can be manipulated for the purpose of the draw. If Jack Warner could get his country a high seeding for the last round of qualifying, he sure as hell could do the same for the next round.

For the record, I would much prefer a single group of 12 teams than this convoluted system of three group stages. We easily have one of the top 12 teams in CONCACAF, and I would settle just being on a level footing with T&T and El Salvador with regard to match-ups.

[greenfield]

I like the idea of more games. I don't like the idea of Jack Warner finding a new way to screw Canada though but I believe with this new format we will have a equal playing field as opposed to us always being selected in the group of death. The only thing I want to know is who is representing us, CSA, at these meetings and what is the CSA's take?

I too would like to know the CSA's position on this.

[TOcanadafan]

Do we know when FIFA will rule on this? This is exactly what Canada needs (an increase in meaningful games) to move forward.

[villus]

Do a bunch of early round knockout games to get it down to 8-12 teams then do South American style. Avoiding smaller 4 team groups is going to make it as fair as possible, and allow lots of competitive games which will grow the level of soccer in the region.

[oreo]

Do we know when FIFA will rule on this? This is exactly what Canada needs (an increase in meaningful games) to move forward.

We know certain facts ,Concacaf will indeed use a 12 teams Final Round in World Cup Qualifying 2014 as talk about by Jack Warner when he uses the phrase ' A Double Hex' , We know FIFA are likely to ratify it in December 2010 . We know the top 12 seeds which based on upcoming fixture can

advance to the final 12 , by zonal ranking (Using FIFa Ranking April - May 2010) # 1 USA 2 Mexico 3 Honduras 4 Costa Rica 5 Canada 6 EL Salvador 7 Panama 8 Jamaica 9 Trinidad & Tobago 10 Haiti

11 Guatemala and 12 Grenada . With those facts in mind we can assume Qualifying will start 3 months earlier i.e Nov 2011

[beachesl]

Do we know when FIFA will rule on this? This is exactly what Canada needs (an increase in meaningful games) to move forward.

Not yet.

FIFA usually leaves it to the Confederations to decide their own formats for their WC spots, and then rubber stamps at the same time as UEFA decides (and approves South American and African qualifying, which will start in September 2011, earlier) . Do not expect anything until November or December 2011, it will just be speculation until then.

[Edgar]

An octagonal seems more likely, according to Honduran media.

[jpg75]

^ Speculation on what the whole process would look like with an Octagonal:

1. Preliminary round to get to 32 teams. CONCACAF have 35 teams, but the number could increase to 36 with the Netherlands Antilles dissolving (more on Wikipedia).

2. 8 groups of 4 teams - top two advancing to the next stage.

3. 4 groups of 4 teams - top two advancing to the next stage.

4. One group of 8 teams, with the top three qualifying for the World Cup, while the fourth placed team will go to an intercontinental playoff. Of course, that's if CONCACAF will have 3.5 spots.

Canada would head our 1st round group as the 5th seed and if done by seeding would get the 12th (Grenada?), 17th (mid-sized Caribbean island eg. St. VAG, Barbados etc.) and 28th (small Caribbean) seeds in the region. After finishing top 2 we would in theory be paired with the top 2 from an adjacent group consisting of the 4th (Costa Rica) seed, 13th (Cuba?), 16th (mid-sized island) and 29th seed.

[rdroze]

^ Speculation on what the whole process would look like with an Octagonal:

1. Preliminary round to get to 32 teams. CONCACAF have 35 teams, but the number could increase to 36 with the Netherlands Antilles dissolving (more on Wikipedia).

2. 8 groups of 4 teams - top two advancing to the next stage.

3. 4 groups of 4 teams - top two advancing to the next stage.

4. One group of 8 teams, with the top three qualifying for the World Cup, while the fourth placed team will go to an intercontinental playoff. Of course, that's if CONCACAF will have 3.5 spots.

If that format actually happens, the eight teams in the final group would end up playing at least 26 qualifying games! And if the preliminary round is 2 games, and the intercontinental playoff is another 2 games, then theoretically one team could have to play 30 games as part of qualification!

Just due to the number of games involved, there's no way I see this happening. I'd personally love more games, but how do you fit them all in? For WC2010 qualifying, the most number of games any one team had to play, over all continents, was 20 (El Salvador).

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Looking at the FIFA calendar it's actually possible as long as the 32 teams are determined before next september and they play three games in June of 2012.

I'm not a fan of the first group stage. There's going to be soooo many dog games. It's just Jack throwing a bone to his caribbean buddies that keep him in power. I'd be ok with this format if the round of 32 was two-legged knock out.

On the plus side, seeing meaningful games start next september would be a bit of a treat even it's just a string of beatings on caribbean minnows.

[Grizzly]

Looking at the FIFA calendar it's actually possible as long as the 32 teams are determined before next september and they play three games in June of 2012.

I'm not a fan of the first group stage. There's going to be soooo many dog games. It's just Jack throwing a bone to his caribbean buddies that keep him in power. I'd be ok with this format if the round of 32 was two-legged knock out.

On the plus side, seeing meaningful games start next september would be a bit of a treat even it's just a string of beatings on caribbean minnows.

Plus it would be damn good for our FIFA ranking.

[themodelcitizen]

I suspect a lot of those early groups would be played as one-offs on a neutral site, so only 3 games instead of 6.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

On bigsoccer there's a poster saying ESPN Deportes is reporting the format will be 2 groups of 4 in the final stage as opposed to an octagonal. The 2nd place finisher with the highest point total would also qualify with the 2nd place finisher from the other group going to the intercontinental playoff.

If this was the format I'd prefer a two leg playoff between the 2nd place finishers.

[Macksam]

On bigsoccer there's a poster saying ESPN Deportes is reporting the format will be 2 groups of 4 in the final stage as opposed to an octagonal. The 2nd place finisher with the highest point total would also qualify with the 2nd place finisher from the other group going to the intercontinental playoff.

If this was the format I'd prefer a two leg playoff between the 2nd place finishers.

Why not just scrap the initial group stage and start the final twelve teams in a double hex? Have the group winners automatically qualify to the World Cup while the runner ups from groups A and B play a home and home with the third place teams in groups B and A respectively.

[Rivaldo]

... ESPN Deportes is reporting the format will be 2 groups of 4 in the final stage as opposed to an octagonal.

I doubt that. CONCACAF likes Mexico vs. USA matches. 2 groups in the final stage would make them unlikely.

[Grizzly]

I doubt that. CONCACAF likes Mexico vs. USA matches. 2 groups in the final stage would make them unlikely.

CONCACAF likes Mexico and USA qualifying for the World Cup a lot more than it likes matches between the two sides. If there is a format to make this more likely they will probably use it. They can get profits from sold out stadiums between the two countries at the relatively meaningless Gold Cup.

[jpg75]

CONCACAF likes Mexico and USA qualifying for the World Cup a lot more than it likes matches between the two sides. If there is a format to make this more likely they will probably use it. They can get profits from sold out stadiums between the two countries at the relatively meaningless Gold Cup.

Less games means that there's a greater possibility of an upset. 2 groups of 4 means each team plays 6 games as opposed to the current 10 in the Hex. That makes it easier to bump either of the big boys out.

If CONCACAF wants the best teams to represent the federation at the WC they'll want to have as many games as possible in the final round. The cream rises to the top as they say...

[Daniel]

Why not just scrap the initial group stage and start the final twelve teams in a double hex? Have the group winners automatically qualify to the World Cup while the runner ups from groups A and B play a home and home with the third place teams in groups B and A respectively.

I agree on the double-hex, but I think the second-place teams should face off for spot 3, with the loser going to the international playoff.

[youllneverwalkalone]

^This makes a lot sense based on the objectives expressed earlier in the thread. I still want a single table, but can't think of any logical way to get there.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

They could just do 8 groups of 4 with only the group winners advancing to the octagonal. That would give the crap minnows a group stage and still have an octagonal while fitting it comfortably into the FIFA calendar. The top 2 seeds in each group could play each of their head to head matchups on the last 2 match days to avoid a situation like we saw in last year's voyaguers cup.

That's just one idea. I'm not that picky as long as the risk of unbalanced groups is eliminated. I'm sick of these ridiculously unbalanced groups. That's the one thing that NEEDS to be eliminated.

[Lurker]

Here's what I expect to see...

First Round (35 teams): Top 13 get a Bye, Remaining 22* play a two game knockout to advance.

Second Round (24 teams): 6 Groups of 4 (Top 2 Advance)

Third Round (12 teams): 3 Groups of 4* (Top 2 Advance)

Final Round (6 teams): Hex (Top 3 World Cup, 4th to a Playoff)

Here's what I'd like to see...

First Round (35 teams): Top 29 get a Bye, Remaining 6 play a one game knockout

Second Round (32 teams): Top 8 get a Bye, 8 Groups of 3 (Winner Advances)

Third Round (16 teams): 4 Groups of 4 (Top 2 Advance)

Fourth Round (8 teams): Octo (Top 3 World Cup, 4th to a Playoff)

[oreo]

If they are going to form a Octagon final Round what they should do is keep the current format and take the two best 3rd place finishers

similar to Gold Cup . What we want is more teams in the final Round .

[Macksam]

I have an idea. Why don't the 10 strongest Concacaf teams break away from the minnows? The rest of the Carribean can fight for .5 spot like New Zealand does, while the The fourth place in this new super ten group gets a .5 spot as well. Africa should get .5 taken away to even things out. We will then be able to move into South American style qualifying.

[Rivaldo]

So CONCACAF wants an elimination round followed by three stages of groups. With another group stage it's hard to see how they can increase the size of the final group without having teams play over 20 qualifying games. FIFA won't approve a format with that many games.