CONCACAF to move to South American Qualifying?

[Free kick]

^ Speculation on what the whole process would look like with an Octagonal:

1. Preliminary round to get to 32 teams. CONCACAF have 35 teams, but the number could increase to 36 with the Netherlands Antilles dissolving (more on Wikipedia).

2. 8 groups of 4 teams - top two advancing to the next stage.

3. 4 groups of 4 teams - top two advancing to the next stage.

4. One group of 8 teams, with the top three qualifying for the World Cup, while the fourth placed team will go to an intercontinental playoff. Of course, that's if CONCACAF will have 3.5 spots.

Canada would head our 1st round group as the 5th seed and if done by seeding would get the 12th (Grenada?), 17th (mid-sized Caribbean island eg. St. VAG, Barbados etc.) and 28th (small Caribbean) seeds in the region. After finishing top 2 we would in theory be paired with the top 2 from an adjacent group consisting of the 4th (Costa Rica) seed, 13th (Cuba?), 16th (mid-sized island) and 29th seed.

That is not an improvement at all. It's pretty much the status quo except that there are eight teams in the final instaed of six. Big deal! it doesn't address any of the major problems with the current system that are being mentioned Namely:

1) That, for all but six sides, the qualifying process is just far to short and ends to soon. WCQ is over for sides like Canada well before WCQ gets in full swing in the rest of the world. Something like one year before the rest of the world even starts talking World cup qualify, canada was already out of it. Since, our WCQ campaign lasted something 6 weeks out of four years it feels like we are not even a part of the whole thing.

2) It gives on few sides a chance to play the top teams in the region. Hence its harder for those smaller sides to improve. Plus, do you realize that its been 14 years since we last faced the US. How good would that be for generating interest here in Canada.

This proposed format ( a final group of eight instead of six) would have meant the exact same outcome for canada in the last four cycles. You need a double hex as final round or one group like South America.

[Free kick]

without having teams play over 20 qualifying games. FIFA won't approve a format with that many games.

Why not? They play something like 18 games in South america

[Rivaldo]

Why not? They play something like 18 games in South america

Fixture congestion. FIFA won't approve a format with many more games.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

South America's qualifying format has the illusion of being grueling because of the number of games but it's not when you consider they start way earlier and don't play on midweek friendly dates like CONCACAF does.

[jpg75]

That is not an improvement at all. It's pretty much the status quo except that there are eight teams in the final instaed of six. Big deal! it doesn't address any of the major problems with the current system that are being mentioned Namely:

1) That, for all but six sides, the qualifying process is just far to short and ends to soon. WCQ is over for sides like Canada well before WCQ gets in full swing in the rest of the world. Something like one year before the rest of the world even starts talking World cup qualify, canada was already out of it. Since, our WCQ campaign lasted something 6 weeks out of four years it feels like we are not even a part of the whole thing.

2) It gives on few sides a chance to play the top teams in the region. Hence its harder for those smaller sides to improve. Plus, do you realize that its been 14 years since we last faced the US. How good would that be for generating interest here in Canada.

This proposed format ( a final group of eight instead of six) would have meant the exact same outcome for canada in the last four cycles. You need a double hex as final round or one group like South America.

If there were 8 teams in the final round there would be a much greater chance of us reaching that stage.

1) In the preliminary round in this proposal only 4 teams would be eliminated after playing only 2 games. 32 of the 36 nations in CONCACAF would get atleast 6 games in the first round group stage. For the second group stage the likelihood of a group of death is greatly reduced as there are now 4 groups instead of 3 and each group would get 2 of the top 8 seeds. Canada would likely have a minimum 12 games and a much greater chance to advance to the final group.

2) Each of the minnow nations that qualifies for the first group stage (only 4 countries would not) get alteast two games against one of the top 8 teams in the region.

If you think we would lose out to Grenada or Cuba in the second group stage for one of the 8 spots in the Octogonal then why even bother debating the merits of changing the qualification structure?

[jpoma]

I'm bored at work, so here's my crack at it.

36 nations.... 4 divisions of 5 teams. 4 divisions of 4 teams. Each team plays 2 games against each divisional opponent. So that's 8 games for the divisions of 5, and 6 games for the divisions of 4. Only the division winners advance.

Now we have 8 teams left.

Alternative 1: We can have 1 8-team division where each team plays the other 2 times, totaling 14 games. Top places get births to world cup etc. The most a team can play is 22 games.

Alternative 2: 2 4-team divisions, where each plays the other 2 times, totaling 6 games. Division winners advance, 2nd places playoff for third birth. The most a team can play is 14 games.

[youllneverwalkalone]

How about 12 groups of 3, winners advance to double hex, as described above. Real minnows get 4 games, mid-sized and big nations get 14. Seems about right.

[Admin]

How about 12 groups of 3, winners advance to double hex, as described above. Real minnows get 4 games, mid-sized and big nations get 14. Seems about right.

And we are good at winning coin tosses!

[Free kick]

How about 12 groups of 3, winners advance to double hex, as described above. Real minnows get 4 games, mid-sized and big nations get 14. Seems about right.

I could live with that too. The point should be to elimnate some stages so that you have more teams playing more games while not forcing those teams that cant afford to play more games to have to play games even though the cant relalistically expect to ever qualify for the WC.

Downside of course, As stated above, is that now you get into a possible coin toss scenario. But realistically I dont think so because there is such a discrepancy in Concacaf between the top 12 and the rest. However, You do absolutely need some proper seeding system for this to work.

[Toronto Ruffrider]

How about 12 groups of 3, winners advance to double hex, as described above. Real minnows get 4 games, mid-sized and big nations get 14. Seems about right.

I like this idea. The WCQ format in CONCACAF will always be a balancing act because small nations can't afford to play many games, while larger nations (outside of those that regularly qualify for the Hex) want to play more games than under the current format.

On the whole, though, I really like some of the WCQ format suggestions that I'm reading. This is a really interesting thread.

[Alex]

The one thing everyone has to remember is the score 32-0. Australia beat American Samoa by that score while qualifying for '02 (I think). We may see a repeat of this if Mexico plays Montserrat or any of the smallest nations. Is that in anyones best interest, is there a point of having 3 team groups when one team will beat up the other two? This is why I believe that FIFA will always have a quick elimination round to fizzle out this potential problem. Even though you want to give everyone a chance, in some cases they're really not good enough to have one.

If we did a poll of the top 12 concacaf teams Ill bet 95% on here will say: US, Mex, Can, CR, Hon, Guat, Pan, Els, Cuba, T&T, Jam, Haiti.

I like the double hex idea, so have preliminary pairings, get to 24, then put the remainder against these 12. This means fewer games in the beginning and allows for the possibility of doing a final hex with the top 3 in each double hex advancing. This should eliminate all the *****ing about draws and it will give us 22 games. 2+10+10.

[Admin]

Whatever happens, it will probably look like this

Group A

United States

Canada

Mexico

Honduras

Cost Rica

El Salvador

Group B

Trinidad & Tobago

St Vincent

Guadalupe

Barbados

Montserrat

St. Lucia

[Lurker]

Whatever happens, it will probably look like this

Group A

United States

Canada

Mexico

Honduras

Cost Rica

El Salvador

Group B

Trinidad & Tobago

St Vincent

Guadalupe

Barbados

Montserrat

St. Lucia

Mr. Warner is that you?!!! HAHA, so true.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

The one thing everyone has to remember is the score 32-0. Australia beat American Samoa by that score while qualifying for '02 (I think). We may see a repeat of this if Mexico plays Montserrat or any of the smallest nations. Is that in anyones best interest, is there a point of having 3 team groups when one team will beat up the other two? This is why I believe that FIFA will always have a quick elimination round to fizzle out this potential problem. Even though you want to give everyone a chance, in some cases they're really not good enough to have one.

If we did a poll of the top 12 concacaf teams Ill bet 95% on here will say: US, Mex, Can, CR, Hon, Guat, Pan, Els, Cuba, T&T, Jam, Haiti.

I like the double hex idea, so have preliminary pairings, get to 24, then put the remainder against these 12. This means fewer games in the beginning and allows for the possibility of doing a final hex with the top 3 in each double hex advancing. This should eliminate all the *****ing about draws and it will give us 22 games. 2+10+10.

The point about the blow outs is so true. The gulf between the top 10-12 in the region and the rest of the region is far too big. If they want more games then they should just run a minnows only group stage during the six double dates next fall. Teams 12-35 can run 6 groups of 4 where they can all have a chance to get results against one another. That way they can have their fun and get their games before getting destroyed by the heavyweights in June 2012 to get them out of the way and get down to 12 teams.

[gator]

Whatever happens, it will probably look like this

Group A

United States

Canada

Mexico

Honduras

Cost Rica

El Salvador

Group B

Trinidad & Tobago

St Vincent

Guadalupe

Barbados

Montserrat

St. Lucia

That's good! Unfortunately it's not too far from reality as absurd as it seems! CONCACAF is just so corrupt!

[Admin]

Whatever happens, it will probably look like this

Group A

United States

Canada

Mexico

Honduras

Cost Rica

El Salvador

Group B

Trinidad & Tobago

Montserrat

I realized I was actually being too optimistic. This is CONCACAF.

[MBZitch]

How about 12 groups of 3, winners advance to double hex, as described above. Real minnows get 4 games, mid-sized and big nations get 14. Seems about right.

Not too sure about groups with an odd number of teams.

I would suggest a similar format but with 9 groups of 4 with the winners of each group and best 3 second place teams moving on to a double hex. This way small teams get six matches and the 12 contenders get sixteen. I would imagine the smaller teams would like to have games against the bigger teams and wouldn't be too concerned about high scoring blow-outs. All of this could easily fit into the calendar of official games and avoid having to play on mid-week friendly dates, it would just need to start sooner. ie. first group stage on the 3 pair of dates in Sep/Oct/Nov 2011, second group stage starting in 2012 (unofficial-official pair of dates in June/July)

Here's the current FIFA calendar for an FIY.

https://www.fifa.com/mm/document/worldfootball/calendarlive/intl_mc_fifa_2008_2014_en_1762.pdf

[Toronto Ruffrider]

Whatever happens, it will probably look like this

Group A

United States

Canada

Mexico

Honduras

Cost Rica

El Salvador

Group B

Trinidad & Tobago

St Vincent

Guadalupe

Barbados

Montserrat

St. Lucia

Even in that group, T&T would need goal differential to move on.

[Scottie]

Whatever happens, it will probably look like this

Group A

United States

Canada

Mexico

Honduras

Cost Rica

El Salvador

Group B

Trinidad & Tobago

St Vincent

Guadalupe

Barbados

Montserrat

St. Lucia

Why has no one pointed out that Guadeloupe doesn't participate in WCQ? I'd bet that in a match that wasn't fixed they'd give T&T a run for their money given their play at the last 2 gold cups.

[Toronto Ruffrider]

Why has no one pointed out that Guadeloupe doesn't participate in WCQ? I'd bet that in a match that wasn't fixed they'd give T&T a run for their money given their play at the last 2 gold cups.

Haha, I completely missed that. Guadeloupe would certainly give T&T headaches. Substitute St. Kitts/Nevis for Guadeloupe and you get a more accurate Jack Warner group.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

FIFA just announced they're going to hold the World Cup qualifying draw 6 months earlier in the summer of 2011 so that qualifying can start in September 2011. There are three double dates in the fall of 2011 so it makes sense to make use of those dates. And if CONCACAF wants more games for the minnows then it's likely we'll have to start around this time.

http://js.fifa.com/aboutfifa/federation/bodies/media/newsid=1230490.html#fifa+executive+committee+eagerly+anticipates+africas+first+world+cup

Hard to believe it's just over a year away. Seems like just yesterday walking out of Stade Saputo to the chants of "ON-DOO-RASS!"

We'll have to keep our ranking high in the near future to avoid getting screwed in the seedings. These upcoming friendlies may actually be important. Whenever T&T moves up a bit, those are the rankings that'll be used.

[oreo]

FIFA just announced they're going to hold the World Cup qualifying draw 6 months earlier in the summer of 2011 so that qualifying can start in September 2011. There are three double dates in the fall of 2011 so it makes sense to make use of those dates. And if CONCACAF wants more games for the minnows then it's likely we'll have to start around this time.

http://js.fifa.com/aboutfifa/federation/bodies/media/newsid=1230490.html#fifa+executive+committee+eagerly+anticipates+africas+first+world+cup

Hard to believe it's just over a year away. Seems like just yesterday walking out of Stade Saputo to the chants of "ON-DOO-RASS!"

We'll have to keep our ranking high in the near future to avoid getting screwed in the seedings. These upcoming friendlies may actually be important. Whenever T&T moves up a bit, those are the rankings that'll be used.

this Article by the JamaicaObserver and fifa announcement that preliminary draw will be summer of 2011 should end all speculations .

Concacaf Final Round of 12 teams is likely to be ratify by fifa in December 2010 ... http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/sport/Burrell-rues-absence-of-Boyz-in-South-Africa-2010_7670716

Posted June 6 from JaObserver ...

He also pointed to a new qualifying format for CONCACAF which is presently before FIFA for approval. The format will be fashioned off that of South America's CONMEBOL where all the teams play each other in home-and-way fixtures.

"This will favour us because there will more matches, so if a team slips along the way, it will have time to recover and possibly qualify," Burrell explained.

In CONCACAF's case, instead of the final 12 teams being placed in three groups, there will only be a straight home-and-away play-off series, which means that each team would play 22 matches for the three automatic World Cup places.

[Lurker]

For some reason this seems to good to be true. I can't help but wonder how much of this is speculation/rumor run wild. The only official word from CONCACAF was the vague release on their site about creating more early round games over a month ago, now people are talking about a final group of 12 and more early round games... this level of change in the qualifying format would be nothing short of shocking.

Does anyone in the CSA have any idea what is going on or are we on the official CONCACAF do not call list?

[CanadianSoccerFan]

wow I can't believe they're actually going to do this. I could see 8 or 10 teams......... but 12???????? and what happened to the "let's give the minnows a chance" mentality? because now there's not enough dates to give them a group stage. Not that I'm complaining.

With 22 games I suspect CONCACAF will do like Asia and play extra games in June even if they're non FIFA dates.

[Lurker]

^ Agree with everything you said. 12 teams is perfect for this final round, although the CONCACRAP article suggests it won't be something like this. I think they're just looking to make the second round a group stage:

----------------------------------------------------------------

CONCACAF to seek change in World Cup qualifying

NEW YORK - CONCACAF will propose a change in its qualifying format for the 2014 World Cup, starting with a preliminary knockout stage followed by three group phases, the confederation Executive Committee decided Friday.

Meeting at CONCACAF's New York headquarters, the committee decided to submit to FIFA the new structure aimed at guaranteeing more early round matches.

"In response to the needs of our membership, we are proposing a new system that will provide substantially more playing opportunities while producing a fair and compelling qualifying competition," CONCACAF President Jack Warner said.

The Executive Committee also awarded the 2012 Women's Olympic qualifying tournament to Canada, chose Guadalajara, Mexico, for the site of its 50th anniversary celebrations in 2011 and decided to recommend that FIFA suspend the El Salvador federation due to government intervention.

"I hope that the Salvadoran issue is resolved in time for the Salvadoran teams to participate in this year's Champions League," Warner said.

The committee also heard a briefing from the Russian federation on its bid to be selected later this year as host of the 2018 or 2022 World Cup . U.S. Soccer Federation President Sunil Gulati also updated the board on the American bid, which will be submitted to FIFA on May 14.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Wow, Warner talking about a format producing a fair qualification competition. Things are looking good.

Until somebody finds me something more official than this I don't see why there is any reason to believe this other talk is anything more than speculation.