CONCACAF to move to South American Qualifying?

[Lurker]

Sadly, this is actually good for midling CONCACAF countries like Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica etc in terms of chances to qualify. As opposed to actually earning it by beating everybody on the pitch, rely on luck of the draw and law of averages over time. Not to be a negative nancy.

Good point, I guess I was kinda thinking about it backwards. Say Costa Rica catches fire and Honduras is having a weaker campaign you'd rather be in the final group with Honduras than Costa Rica. Although you'd have to face Costa Rica for the 3rd spot knockout regardless.

[Keano]

Still better thatn always missing the hex by being unable to ever beat one of the afformentioned "big 4"

[Toronto Ruffrider]

I still prefer the 12-team final group stage. I would rather see the best teams rise to the top, rather than a few mid-level teams luck out. Our chances might be better with two four-team groups, but that's assuming we don't get screwed over in the draw.

As an aside, I agree with Lurker's sentiment regarding the lack of USA/Mexico matches in the split final group stage. Those are important matches, even if only for bragging rights.

[Rivaldo]

Fenafuth's president says there will be two groups of four in the final round. See more in CONCACAF qualifying system news.

I put more faith in Burrell's interview since he's on the CONCACAF Executive Committee.

[Grizzly]

Sadly, this is actually good for midling CONCACAF countries like Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica etc in terms of chances to qualify. As opposed to actually earning it by beating everybody on the pitch, rely on luck of the draw and law of averages over time. Not to be a negative nancy.

Except that Canada never gets "lucky" in the draw and certain countries always get "lucky" in the draw.

[oreo]

I think Burrell is right on this one ,from a variety of hints we know a 12 team final Round is likely to be ratify by FIFA in December .

#1 the new 12 teams Format takes time and thats one of the main reason why FIFA going to held the Draw in summer next year .

Also , the honduran guy is not higher than Burrell in Concacaf Burrell is the 2nd most powerful man in Concacaf behind Warner .

and let me repeat myself , Warner said . 'A double hex' in a statement at the lass Concacaf meeting . I dont think Concacaf would

give an Honduran radio station the official press release I think edgar is wrong there . If we have a 12 team final round it would

be more fair in the confederation and I bet the 1/2 spot race is going down the wire in 2013 between Jamaica ,Panama and

Canada .

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

The 12 team qualifying section sounds a bit far fetched to me as there could wind up being a huge number of meaningless games given the number of potential qualifying places is four. The South American format works because five out of ten keeps most of the teams involved until close to the end of the 18 games. There is strength in depth in Comnebol that isn't necessarily there in CONCACAF even in the context of the hex. Think the three stage four countries per section with 32, 16 and 8 teams format is much more likely to wind up being approved.

Either way if the CSA can get its act together (big if obviously) the additional home games that should be available during the next qualifying cycle should provide the environment in which the CMNT goes mainstream and soccer fans from coast to coast finally get behind their own national team in a big way. In years past to follow the fortunes of the CMNT has been a case of swimming against the tide but by 2012 there will be three MLS teams drawing regular crowds of over 20,000 in the three big metropolitan areas in BC, Ontario and Quebec with two of them playing in soccer specific stadia with grass fields. Perhaps even more importantly up to half of the CMNT roster will probably be playing in MLS and will be appearing regularly in a domestic league broadcast every week on basic cable making it much easier for fans to identify with the team and to have an awareness of when CMNT games are being played.

That should make it easier for the CSA to get major corporate sponsor on board to get the finances in place to bring in an experienced coach from overseas, to get the games on CBC and to work with the three MLS teams to ensure that the tickets at home games wind up in the hands of interested TFC, Impact and Whitecaps season ticket holders in the first instance before any are made available for public sale so that every home game has a pro-Canadian crowd. Sadly I suspect it will be the usual shambles over the next four years and we will have to wait until the 2018 qualifying cycle before the worst nightmare of the older generation of sports broadcasters and journalists like Bruce Dowbiggin finally unfolds:-

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/mother-corp-morphs-into-the-canadian-soccer-broadcasting-corporation/article1595740/

and soccer has to be treated as an equal to hockey, baseball and the CFL rather than as something foreign and unCanadian.

[ChrisB]

Also of note from the Football rankings blog is the estimated FIFA rankings for May 2011 and July 2011 - anyone want to bet on CONCACAF looking to use the July rankings?

http://www.football-rankings.info/2010/06/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-for.html

May 2011 ranking

1 USA 627

2 Mexico 558

3 Costa Rica 448

4 Honduras 404

5 Canada 301

6 El Salvador 234

7 Panama 215

8 Jamaica 204

9 Trinidad and Tobago 178

July 2011 ranking

1 USA 390

2 Mexico 356

3 Costa Rica 300

4 Honduras 298

5 Trinidad and Tobago 205

6 Jamaica 196

7 El Salvador 178

8 Panama 151

9 Canada 125

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Also of note from the Football rankings blog is the estimated FIFA rankings for May 2011 and July 2011 - anyone want to bet on CONCACAF looking to use the July rankings?

http://www.football-rankings.info/2010/06/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-for.html

May 2011 ranking

1 USA 627

2 Mexico 558

3 Costa Rica 448

4 Honduras 404

5 Canada 301

6 El Salvador 234

7 Panama 215

8 Jamaica 204

9 Trinidad and Tobago 178

July 2011 ranking

1 USA 390

2 Mexico 356

3 Costa Rica 300

4 Honduras 298

5 Trinidad and Tobago 205

6 Jamaica 196

7 El Salvador 178

8 Panama 151

9 Canada 125

In any case the July 2011 ranking will be greatly determined by what happens in the Gold Cup. It's important we do well and stay in the top 8 and hopefully crack top 4

[jpg75]

Yeah, those July rankings are based upon neutral point gains by all nations between now and then. Our task over the next 12 months is to get more points that our competitors (duh).

[intrepid]

South American qualifying works so well because there is so much parity there. Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela all missed the cutoff by just a point or two. Even the weaker sides (Peru and Bolivia) manage to avoid embarassment.

I don't think a 12-team table would work in CONCACAF, especially with only 3.5 spots. Long before 22 games were up it would quickly become clear that the bottom sides (e.g. Haiti) weren't going to qualify. This would lead to the fielding of B-teams in the late stages, which isn't fair to the other teams still fighting it out.

I think an 8-team final would be good. Four groups of four in the semi-final round. But i'm also okay with keeping it a hex, as long as there are more games before cutting it to six. There could be, say, a double-hex semifinal with the top three in each group advancing to the hex final.

[oreo]

^ "Also in that article, we're told CONCACAF are pushing for a fourth World Cup spot at the expense of CONMEBOL, who are totally against it."

http://www.abc.com.py/abc/nota/131421-La-Conmebol-no-acepta-recorte-de-media-plaza/

As much as it would help us, it would be a tragedy to see the South Americans only get 4 spots...then again, Asia getting 4.5 spots and New Zealand getting a free pass all the way to playoff against the 5th Asian spot is just as tragic.

I dont think this going to happen , all 5 conmebol teams advance to R16 in this year's World Cup ,

thats good for them . 2 out of 3 Concacaf teams advance to the R16 good for us too , hopefull

the current procedure remain where both confed.. have an Intercontinental playoff of the Americas

in 2013 .

[Saviola7]

I was thinking the other day that it would be nice to see the playoffs switched such that AFC .5 play CONMEBOL .5 and OFC .5 play CONCACAF .5.

I also think it would be cool for CAF to have a .5 playoff with UEFA.

[oreo]

I was thinking the other day that it would be nice to see the playoffs switched such that AFC .5 play CONMEBOL .5 and OFC .5 play CONCACAF .5.

I also think it would be cool for CAF to have a .5 playoff with UEFA.

it is possible , FIFA are the ones who set the fixtures for 2013 . I have seen wikipedia change their Qualification article on Intercontinental

playoff 3 times . The ist was Concacaf/Conmebol , 2nd Concacaf/UEFA and now they scrap that article .

[Scottie]

it is possible , FIFA are the ones who set the fixtures for 2013 . I have seen wikipedia change their Qualification article on Intercontinental

playoff 3 times . The ist was Concacaf/Conmebol , 2nd Concacaf/UEFA and now they scrap that article .

Now that's some good speculation.

[Rivaldo]

I was thinking the other day that it would be nice to see the playoffs switched such that AFC .5 play CONMEBOL .5 and OFC .5 play CONCACAF .5.

Why would you want that?

It's pretty unlikely for geographic reasons. Going back to CONCACAF vs. AFC would make things a little easier.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

I'd definitely take that if it's CONCACAF vs AFC.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Montopoli was on the Soccer Show and was vaguely saying the world cup format would be changed to a format with 9 home and 9 away. He didn't seem too sure of himself but it kind of hinted of a group of 10.

[Footscray]

I realize I'm commenting on speculation but I would be happy. Lots of competitive games (18 - wow!!) for the program is a godsend and 9 home games in the final round is great. I think it will really give the CSA an opportunity to market the WCQs and build interest. Whether they grab the opportunity is another thing but still good.

[the biologist]

+1

I agree about the CSA possibly not doing it right, but if this is really what's gonna happen, then good news it is. We're always looking for good news. That could make it 2 games each for the 3 MLS cities, then keep 3 for the rest of the country, so they get the chance as well to show their support to the MNT while they play in the real WCQer, that is... the dec, to replace the hex. But how in hell our buddy Jack could let that happen goes beyond my mind. That's when you come back on earth. Too bad, it was a nice dream.

[jpg75]

Perhaps Jack is realizing that no matter how many strings he pulls this T&T team might not be good enough to make the Hex and this gives him guaranteed home gates to steal from...

[Lurker]

Montopoli was on the Soccer Show and was vaguely saying the world cup format would be changed to a format with 9 home and 9 away. He didn't seem too sure of himself but it kind of hinted of a group of 10.

It sounded to me like he didn't have a clue what was going on. He knew it's going to change, but he framed things in a manner of what he believed would help us. Which again begs the question as to why nobody knows (at least in Canada) what the heck happened in that CONCACAF boardroom back in May. I'm willing to bet there's no way were going to see a group of 10, CONCACAF said there will be 3 group phases (preceded by an initial knockout, which we likely wont be part of). If so there's no way the last phase will be a group of 10, that would be way too many games for a WCQ campaign. Of course, I'd be happy to eat my words if a final group of 10 actually does take place...

[Toronto Ruffrider]

+1

I agree about the CSA possibly not doing it right, but if this is really what's gonna happen, then good news it is. We're always looking for good news. That could make it 2 games each for the 3 MLS cities, then keep 3 for the rest of the country, so they get the chance as well to show their support to the MNT while they play in the real WCQer, that is... the dec, to replace the hex. But how in hell our buddy Jack could let that happen goes beyond my mind. That's when you come back on earth. Too bad, it was a nice dream.

I can't say I agree with this. It makes sense to play all WCQs in the three MLS cities, not only from a fan standpoint but also an infrastructure standpoint. This country is short on good soccer stadiums, particularly ones with grass pitches. Outside of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, the only city with a half-decent stadium for soccer is Edmonton, and even Commonwealth Stadium has field turf now. Maybe I'm approaching this issue from a different perspective, but I just don't like the idea of hosting some of our qualifiers in the tiny stadiums that we used in the past, such as Richardson Stadium or King George V Park.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Another piece indicating the CONCACAF execs are lobbying hard to get an automatic 4th spot for Brazil 2014 which would leave South America with 4 spots in addition to Brazil's automatic spot.

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/deportes/futbol-nacional/134840-concacaf-busca-la-otra-plaza.html

Don't really think CONCACAF deserves it but I won't complain if it happens. I wouldn't put anything past Jack Warner.

[matty1487]

Another piece indicating the CONCACAF execs are lobbying hard to get an automatic 4th spot for Brazil 2014 which would leave South America with 4 spots in addition to Brazil's automatic spot.

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/deportes/futbol-nacional/134840-concacaf-busca-la-otra-plaza.html

Don't really think CONCACAF deserves it but I won't complain if it happens. I wouldn't put anything past Jack Warner.

I think it's high time CONMEBOL gets five automatic spots. I'm all for spreading the beautiful game around the world, but going on performances from past World Cups: other than Ghana making the quarterfinals once, the round of sixteen once, and Senegal's miracle quarterfinal run of 2002, Africa's showings at the World Cup have been poor at best, and certainly do not deserve six automatic spots (although I imagine the host spot will be moved to CONMEBOL). On that note, in all fairness, I don't believe CONCACAF deserves 4 automatic spots either, because the "third" (and "fourth" in 2006) CONCACAF representative (i.e. not USA or Mexico) have a grand total of ONE win in the last three World Cups! And with only one quarterfinal appearance between USA and Mexico over the last three world cups, it's hard to justify four automatic spots. That being said, as a Canadian soccer fan, I wouldn't complain about it, cuz it would mean a better chance of qualifying! Here's how I think the 2014 spots should be allocated:

Automatic

AFC: 4 spots

CAF: 4 spots

CONCACAF: 3 spots

CONMEBOL: 4 spots + Brazil

OFC: 0 spots

UEFA: 14 spots

Playoffs:

CAF-CONCACAF

AFC-OFC