Canadian Premier League

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Ottawa Fury's deal with the Impact appears to set the precedent and the CSA and MLS recently announced domestic player rule changes that hinge around signing the first pro contract with an MLS team's USL affiliate, so are the CSA really going to obstruct one of those from operating in Canada? 

[ted]

6 hours ago, Alex D said:

The travel for an all Canadian division would also be far too expensive for USL budgets.

I hope that ether you are wrong because I am afraid that CanPL budgets will not be much bigger than USL ones, or that I am wrong and somehow sponsors are going to jump on the CanPL bandwagon.

 

1 hour ago, rob.notenboom said:

We haven't even gotten into whether or not the CSA would sanction a USL team that wasn't in Vancouver ...

This is a good question as the Thundercaps required no sanctioning by the CSA who said they were simply an extension of the Caps. There is no guarantee of sanctioning of a new independent team. USL "rights" are a business arrangement between the USL and owners and do not commit the CSA to anything.

[Complete Homer]

10 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

If you want a conspiracy theory, is it possible that the Ottawa Fury bought the Impact's USL franchise as a cheaper way into the league given the expansion fee is said to be around $USD 3.5 million? Once that precedent was set in Ottawa with the blackmail factor of do this or the Fury fold helping things along, the mandatory USL affiliates for the other two MLS teams could then easily be moved to other Canadian cities with local owners in place AAA baseball style in each case. Would have thought that Victoria would be the most obvious destination for VWFC2 under that scenario and you have already let the cat out of the bag as to where TFC2 could ultimately end up in southern Ontario. At that point they can offer to take in the "CPL" swathe of ownership and create a Canadian division within USL and the CSA gets the cross-border league it controls to put it in Victor Montagliani terms and the Hamilton Steelers (come on you know it makes sense to use the name with over 50 years of history) don't wind up playing against a team branded TFC2.

First, while I agree the timing is interesting to say the least, I have an issue jumping on board with a theory that requires ignoring available information. I realize you completely disregard Totera and Rollins, but what about someone like Dino Rossi? When he says the USL/CPL angle is not happening, do you ignore that too?

Second, for the TFCII thing, I agreed to not speak about it, but suffice to say it is not the scenario you are imagining

Third, unless it was a last gasp attempt by Montagliani to get the league done before potentially weaker CSA leadership takes over, I have a hard time believing eliminating an MLS2 team and shifting the other two into fresh markets, with only a couple new teams was Montagliani's vision when he mentioned that he was still "open" to the possibility of a cross border league (interesting that you reference the one time he said this repeatedly, but ignore anything else he says). It would be the net gain of what, two teams? Six years of hard work to shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic? 

They already had sanctioning power over the MLS2 teams and had strict roster requirements, so it being in "Canadian control" was not an added benefit for Montagliani. If they had enough franchises to launch without the farm teams, I have a hard time believing they would take them on, as it instantly makes the narrative that "CPL is minor league" easy to make and could very well sink the league.

Again, the crux of this argument goes back to your core belief that the league cannot attract significant investment. Being unable to hit 6-8 teams seems like the only justification for torpedoing the prestige of the league (which matters to fans and owners alike). 

Fourth, while I'm not saying it's guaranteed, the more likely scenario would seem to be the one that explains the facts while ignoring the least amount of information. If VWC II is indeed moving to Calgary (still an if), a simple explaination that does not disregard information would be that Vancouver is just actively trying to expand their brand across the west (as they have been doing for years) regardless or even because of an incoming CPL franchise in Calgary. While I agree that CPL should not market itself as a competitor to MLS, the fact remains that they will be competing for market share, and it makes perfect sense for the Whitecaps to try and further lock down the western market. Adding the CPL/USL angle into it is an unnecessary step. 

Further, the timing of this coincides with USL getting a one year deadline to make a better case than NASL to get permanent D2 sanctioning. Given that the MLS2 teams apparently hurt their bid this time, I think it is reasonable to assume all MLS teams are being pressured to make their USL teams appear more independent, regardless of CPL. 

Fifth, I should state that I'm not actually against independently marketed franchises from the MLS teams, I just get annoyed when it is implied that CPL is doomed if it isn't a vassal of an American league. Seems like we have to keep having this same conversation ever since you got criticized months/years ago for lashing out about the CSA's decision to invoke the moratorium, and any development since has to be interpretated through the lens of "the moratorium was wrong" 

[Complete Homer]

That said, I'm not interested in reigniting the CPL/USL flame wars, I just woke up after a night shift, crabby before coffee 

[Ansem]

The only truth is that we don't know

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

...and the latest development of USL and NASL both getting provisional D2 status from the USSF really throws the cat amongst the pigeons, because even the people that are inside the loop on this stuff may not have considered what to do next under this particular scenario.

[Complete Homer]

31 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

...and the latest development of USL and NASL both getting provisional D2 status from the USSF really throws the cat amongst the pigeons, because even the people that are inside the loop on this stuff may not have considered what to do next under this particular scenario.

That's fair. It's a variable that people involved in CPL planning probably couldn't have predicted 18 months ago

[SuperCanuck]

On 07/01/2017 at 10:18 AM, Complete Homer said:

It matters for a couple reasons

First off, sports, especially soccer, is often a vanity industry for extremely wealthy individuals. Sure, the goal is to eventually be profitable and to not lose tons of money, but worldwide many (most?) clubs exist as a vanity piece for someone who make their money elsewhere. When you are choosing where to park your investment, narratives matter, and the higher tier will generally be more attractive. 

Second, it changes what is expected of the league. Now, the USSF pyramid issue is a bit odd, since neither USL or NASL meet their D2 requirements, but in general the idea is if you can't start a club with X stadium capacity and Y player salaries, you should be able to call yourself the same level as clubs in a league that do so. 

For CPL, I'm not 100% convinced it will be D1, but I hope it will be, since I think it is the only way to fulfill the potential of the league. We'll see

It would be pretty sad if something called the Canadian Premier League ended up being division 2.

[Ansem]

Another reason to be optimistic about the Hamilton CPL market

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/marcello-cabezas/hamilton-millennials_b_12899110.html

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/01/04/millennials-flocking-to-hamilton

According to a 2016 study by the Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton, there are now more millennials than baby boomers living in Hamilton, with millennials making up 27.58% of the city’s population — which is above the provincial average of 26.84%.

Hamilton LRT

 

Planned new Waterfront due to the city rapid growth due to Millennials

 

Millenials are heavily credited for the Blue Jays renaissance for the attendance they are getting. This might be the only team we know 100% will be part of the league but that's a damn good start.

[Levi Oakey]

Ha, All the things you mention are things that Waterloo Region excels at.

LRT? Ours will be done this year, funded by the city itself who went ahead of the province to make it happen. We'll also have a new multimillion dollar transit hub in 2020. LRT, inner-city and extra city buses, GO trains and VIA rail all in one spot.

Millennials? Our average age in Waterloo Region is like 35. In pure count we have just 1000 less even though we have a smaller population than Hamilton.

Tonight we have a meetup of soccer fans in the grand river valley to try start planning for the arrival of our CPL team. Going to be fun. 

[Ansem]

2 minutes ago, Levi Oakey said:

Ha, All the things you mention are things that Waterloo Region excels at.

LRT? Ours will be done this year, funded by the city itself who went ahead of the province to make it happen. We'll also have a new multimillion dollar transit hub in 2020. LRT, inner-city and extra city buses, GO trains and VIA rail all in one spot.

Millennials? Our average age in Waterloo Region is like 35. In pure count we have just 1000 less even though we have a smaller population than Hamilton.

Tonight we have a meetup of soccer fans in the grand river valley to try start planning for the arrival of our CPL team. Going to be fun. 

Haven't forgotten you guys! I'm a huge believer of the area especially due to the heavy corporate presence making and the population size which regularly flies under the radar. Its a no brainer to put a team there in the future!

• Tri-City is the 10th Metro Area in Canada with 507,096 in 2011, a 6.1% increase from 2006.
• Estimated population for 2015 is 511,300
• Just goggle "Canada Silicon Valley"
• http://bloombergtv.ca/2016-01-27/news/industries/real-estate/silicon-valley-north-fuels-canada-condo-boom-as-google-moves-in/ With a population of about 140,000 people, a third of them students and 20 percent working in the technology industry, Waterloo has been billed as Canada’s Silicon Valley. Home to BlackBerry Ltd., Open Text Corp., and dozens of startups, Waterloo and its twin city Kitchener are so in-demand that condo development is surging.
• LRT
• High Speed Rail between Toronto - Pearson Airport - Kitchener/Waterloo - London is in the works...potentially all the way to Windsor

[matty]

Goddamn kw talj is back again. If it's gonna happen it's like 20+ years away when the pop finally reaches 700k.

[Levi Oakey]

Just now, matty said:

Goddamn kw talj is back again. If it's gonna happen it's like 20+ years away when the pop finally reaches 700k

I think you might be surprised... A lot still depends on the direction the league takes, but there is very much a prospective team on the table. My understanding is that Barry McLean helped write the ownership deals for the CanPL.

[matty]

4 minutes ago, Levi Oakey said:

I think you might be surprised... A lot still depends on the direction the league takes, but there is very much a prospective team on the table. My understanding is that Barry McLean helped write the ownership deals for the CanPL.

They're going to be conservative with expansion ince this league is up and running and they're not going to jump into risky unproven markets that have teams so close.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

With the exception of Halifax, almost all of the recent rumours about "CPL" have revolved around Ontario. Something more on the financial scale of the NBL in basketball and with a similar geographical scope as opposed to an NASL type setup would be a good fit for cities like K/W and London. Beyond that the form the league takes very much depends on who actually wants to invest.

[Levi Oakey]

1 minute ago, matty said:

They're going to be conservative with expansion ince this league is up and running and they're not going to jump into risky unproven markets that have teams so close.

Interesting, where did you hear that? Or is this your personal hypothesis?

[dyslexic nam]

2 minutes ago, Levi Oakey said:

Interesting, where did you hear that? Or is this your personal hypothesis?

Given the current state of (non)information and the question marks around the sources that dole out the occasional cryptic teaser, I treat pretty much every statement on the last 224 pages as 'personal hypothesis'.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

So Hamilton, London, K/W and either Mississauga or Brampton have all had recent mentions on this thread from people with varying levels of credibility and the word is six is the likely starting number. A return to the match-fixing version of the CSL era when a Windsor-Quebec corridor league was always a couple of seasons away from western expansion? That's a scenario I think could be put together a lot more easily than the CFL-centric one that is usually peddled on here.

[matty]

1 minute ago, Levi Oakey said:

Interesting, where did you hear that? Or is this your personal hypothesis?

Won't say who but it was mentioned at the mls cup press meet up. A bunch of us were talking about the cpl and one of the better connected reporters mentioned that they're looking at proven and fairly open markets for the first decade and they didn't want to over populate southern Ontario market

[Levi Oakey]

4 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

So Hamilton, London, K/W and either Mississauga or Brampton have all had recent mentions on this thread from people with varying levels of credibility and the word is six is the likely starting number. A return to the match-fixing version of the CSL era when a Windsor-Quebec corridor league was always a couple of seasons away from western expansion? That's a scenario I think could be put together a lot more easily than the CFL-centric one that is usually peddled on here.

CFL owners are involved, just not always with their own teams.

If KW is fringe, London is a mullet. Although I really hope to renew that London -KW rivalry. PDL games were fun.

[Ansem]

20 minutes ago, matty said:

They're going to be conservative with expansion ince this league is up and running and they're not going to jump into risky unproven markets that have teams so close.

Like welltoldtales said, it really depends of the direction of the league...which will heavily depends on the 2026 World Cup picture.

Best case scenario: Canada bid alone and win the whole thing...expect CPL to capitalize on it. Soccer specific stadiums heavily subsided by 3 level of governments will attract investors like flies. With a much reduced initial investment, they could end up with a soccer specific stadium in key areas of the country. Then there's the World Cup buzz the CPL can ride on for the next decade making it mainstream which should solidify the league in a very short amount of time. We could see a fast post 2020 expansion period leading to almost a full table by 2026-2030. 18 to 20 teams?

Most likely scenario: With FIFA set to expend the World Cup to 48 teams this month, a co-bid scenario with the US and Mexico is very real. That would mean less new stadiums would be required. However, the World Cup buzz would be the same. We need to see the CSA bid to see where they would build new stadium and to which extend they would retrofit existing stadiums but I could see the top Metro areas being covered by 2026 and the league being viable also in the short term.

Worst case scenario: We lose it all with the USA hosting on their own (most likely due to a CSA horrible bid). Then all the worst case scenarios from naysayers are a very real possibility. If not, expect a very slow growth and conservative expansion blueprint for the league. The soccer buzz of the USA hosting 1994 did not cross the border back then and would be most likely the same this time too... even worse if Canada doesn't qualify for that tournament.

The CSA was pretty obvious at tying the 2026 World Cup bid to the launch of the CPL. The timing couldn't be smarter than that, hence the urgency of launching it for 2018 so they have something to show FIFA when the evaluation phase starts in 2019. 2026 World Cup bid will be the driving factor in the direction the league will take. A potential Canadian world cup is on it's own reason enough to take a risk and eat the losses if it means ripping the huge return and mitigating additional costs of being 100% for a new stadium in the long term.

[matty]

6 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Like welltoldtales said, it really depends of the direction of the league...which will heavily depends on the 2026 World Cup picture.

Best case scenario: Canada bid alone and win the whole thing...expect CPL to capitalize on it. Soccer specific stadiums heavily subsided by 3 level of governments will attract investors like flies. With a much reduced initial investment, they could end up with a soccer specific stadium in key areas of the country. Then there's the World Cup buzz the CPL can ride on for the next decade making it mainstream which should solidify the league in a very short amount of time. We could see a fast post 2020 expansion period leading to almost a full table by 2026-2030. 18 to 20 teams?

Most likely scenario: With FIFA set to expend the World Cup to 48 teams this month, a co-bid scenario with the US and Mexico is very real. That would mean less new stadiums would be required. However, the World Cup buzz would be the same. We need to see the CSA bid to see where they would build new stadium and to which extend they would retrofit existing stadiums but I could see the top Metro areas being covered by 2026 and the league being viable also in the short term.

Worst case scenario: We lose it all with the USA hosting on their own (most likely due to a CSA horrible bid). Then all the worst case scenarios from naysayers are a very real possibility. If not, expect a very slow growth and conservative expansion blueprint for the league. The soccer buzz of the USA hosting 1994 did not cross the border back then and would be most likely the same this time too... even worse if Canada doesn't qualify for that tournament.

The CSA was pretty obvious at tying the 2026 World Cup bid to the launch of the CPL. The timing couldn't be smarter than that, hence the urgency of launching it for 2018 so they have something to show FIFA when the evaluation phase starts in 2019. 2026 World Cup bid will be the driving factor in the direction the league will take. A potential Canadian world cup is on it's own reason enough to take a risk and eat the losses if it means ripping the huge return and mitigating additional costs of being 100% for a new stadium in the long term.

Even with 2026, expansion is likely to be conservative and max out at 10 to 12 teams until 2040. Due to where it is, kw isn't as likely to get a team by 2030 or 2035 as say quebec city or monctonor Victoria even with its pop

[Levi Oakey]

7 minutes ago, matty said:

Even with 2026, expansion is likely to be conservative and max out at 10 to 12 teams until 2040. Due to where it is, kw isn't as likely to get a team by 2030 or 2035 as say quebec city or monctonor Victoria even with its pop

K.

[Ansem]

37 minutes ago, matty said:

Even with 2026, expansion is likely to be conservative and max out at 10 to 12 teams until 2040. Due to where it is, kw isn't as likely to get a team by 2030 or 2035 as say quebec city or monctonor Victoria even with its pop

With all due respect. The markets and potential owners will determine that. Say Quebecor, Power Corp., Cirque du Soleil, Couche-Tard or Jean Coutu wants to own a team in Quebec City by 2026, CPL would be INSANE to say no. Same logic for a group of deep pocket tech owners or/with blackberry willing to invest TriCity. You just don't say no to deep pockets like that without studying their proposal.

Look at MLS, owners are knocking at their doors and MLS just can't seem to stop themselves from expanding.

Markets + the right type of owners showing interest in a team will determine that. 2026 World Cup just makes it more likely that more of them would be interested due to the factors I listed before. (heavily subsidized infrastructure, and making $$$ on something being hot for the next decade...2026 reduces the risks and maximize the potential ROI (Return on Investment). Hard to say no with those conditions.

So you'll have those owners:

1-CPL Launch:  taking all the risks by launching in 2018

• Very High risk (due to sheer uncertainty)
• low initial investment
• The Highest potential ROI if it works (just look at the original MLS owners who saw the value of their team increase by 400%, let's say they are laughing now)

2-Post CPL launch (2019-2020):

• High risk (2026 World Cup picture gets clearer)
• Medium-low initial investment (higher expansion fee than original owners
• High potential on ROI

3-Post CPL launch (Canada bids or co-bid 2026): 

• Low risk (2026 World Cup being in Canada, that's 6 years of mainstream attention boosting your potential team) (Very high probability on subsidized facilities) (existing data on CPL available)
• High to very high expansion fees
• good medium to long term potential on ROI (due to the high expansion fees)

That's just a screenshot of the business side of North American top leagues and how it's been historically and also how it works businesswise. For investors being courted by the league, I suspect the 2026 World Cup being the DRIVING ARGUMENT to sway them to invest in the league. Recent MLS attendance and playoffs TV ratings are gravy on top of that. Although MLS started in 1997, the league was in the works before then and the same argument must have been the driving factor as they had an even less soccer culture than Canada ever had and it worked.

You can also see how Canada not hosting the 2026 World Cup at all hurts CPL ability to grow and attract potential investors. This is where Matty's scenario kicks in. CPL will have to provide the "track record" of it's economics and viability as a desirable environment to warrant that type of investment. It would be a very conservative expansion map and slower growth indeed.

• The risks would remain high the entire time
• Expansion fees and initial investment would be high (Unlikely that the Minucipal level have an appetite for public funds building stadiums, with the Federal and Provincial governments being out, that's a lot of financial commitment falling on a prospective owner's shoulders
• The ROI would be more in the long term area, reducing the number of interested owners that fit the profile set by the league

At the end of the day guys, North American Sport Industry is a BUSINESS FIRST AND FOREMOST.

With the different investment possibilities (and there must be even more scenarios and profiles), you're quick to understand how much CPL is 2026 World Cup driven and the 2020 decision (CPL's crossroad) will define the league's destiny. 

 

 

[GuillermoDelQuarto]

If FIFAs goal really is world domination as I believe it is, why wouldn't they approve at the very least us co hosting it if they hear we are setting up a domestic league.  Doesn't really make sense not to even toss us a few games if its going to be in north america anyways.... 

Just my two cents though