Canadian Premier League

[dyslexic nam]

33 minutes ago, matty said:

Even with 2026, expansion is likely to be conservative and max out at 10 to 12 teams until 2040. Due to where it is, kw isn't as likely to get a team by 2030 or 2035 as say quebec city or moncton or Victoria even with its pop

No disrespect intended, but I have no idea how anyone could feel confident putting out statements that specific.  We don't know when the league will launch, or  where it will launch in many cases - hell, at the end of the day we can't even be 100% sure yet that it will launch.  Given that massive pile of uncertainty, projecting hard expansion limits 23 years from now and ordering markets for expansion teams seems to be an entirely speculative exercise.  Even if that is what is currently envisioned, given the almost complete absence of firm reliable information, these things would absolutely be subject to events as they unfold.  If the year is 2028, and the league is going gangbusters after a decade of success, I am pretty sure any contemplated expansion limits tossed around in 2016 would be entirely ignored.

[matty]

7 minutes ago, Ansem said:

With all due respect. The markets and potential owners will determine that. Say Quebecor, Power Corp., Cirque du Soleil, Couche-Tard or Jean Coutu wants to own a team in Quebec City by 2026, CPL would be INSANE to say no. Same logic for a group of deep pocket tech owners or/with blackberry willing to invest TriCity. You just don't say no to deep pockets like that without studying their proposal.

Look at MLS, owners are knocking at their doors and MLS just can't seem to stop themselves from expanding.

Markets + the right type of owners showing interest in a team will determine that. 2026 World Cup just makes it more likely that more of them would be interested due to the factors I listed before. (heavily subsidized infrastructure, and making $$$ on something being hot for the next decade...2026 reduces the risks and maximize the potential ROI (Return on Investment). Hard to say no with those conditions.

So you'll have those owners:

1-CPL Launch:  taking all the risks by launching in 2018

• Very High risk (due to sheer uncertainty)
• low initial investment
• The Highest potential ROI if it works (just look at the original MLS owners who saw the value of their team increase by 400%, let's say they are laughing now)

2-Post CPL launch (2019-2020):

• High risk (2026 World Cup picture gets clearer)
• Medium-low initial investment (higher expansion fee than original owners
• High potential on ROI

3-Post CPL launch (Canada bids or co-bid 2026): 

• Low risk (2026 World Cup being in Canada, that's 6 years of mainstream attention boosting your potential team) (Very high probability on subsidized facilities) (existing data on CPL available)
• High to very high expansion fees
• good medium to long term potential on ROI (due to the high expansion fees)

That's just a screenshot of the business side of North American top leagues and how it's been historically and also how it works businesswise. For investors being courted by the league, I suspect the 2026 World Cup being the DRIVING ARGUMENT to sway them to invest in the league. Recent MLS attendance and playoffs TV ratings are gravy on top of that. Although MLS started in 1997, the league was in the works before then and the same argument must have been the driving factor as they had an even less soccer culture than Canada ever had and it worked.

You can also see how Canada not hosting the 2026 World Cup at all hurts CPL ability to grow and attract potential investors. This is where Matty's scenario kicks in. CPL will have to provide the "track record" of it's economics and viability as a desirable environment to warrant that type of investment. It would be a very conservative expansion map and slower growth indeed.

• The risks would remain high the entire time
• Expansion fees and initial investment would be high (Unlikely that the Minucipal level have an appetite for public funds building stadiums, with the Federal and Provincial governments being out, that's a lot of financial commitment falling on a prospective owner's shoulders
• The ROI would be more in the long term area, reducing the number of interested owners that fit the profile set by the league

At the end of the day guys, North American Sport Industry is a BUSINESS FIRST AND FOREMOST.

With the different investment possibilities (and there must be even more scenarios and profiles), you're quick to understand how much CPL is 2026 World Cup driven and the 2020 decision (CPL's crossroad) will define the league's destiny. 

 

 

You can say no to money men and leagues have in the past. Look I'm not saying it Won't happen, I'm saying it's a great deal down the road based on what I've been told by people with more . Kw whether you want to admit it or not is going to have to deal with toronto and hamilton. Mls expansion isn't as fucking gungho as you're making it out to be.

[Ansem]

1 minute ago, GuillermoDelQuarto said:

If FIFAs goal really is world domination as I believe it is, why wouldn't they approve at the very least us co hosting it if they hear we are setting up a domestic league.  Doesn't really make sense not to even toss us a few games if its going to be in north america anyways.... 

Just my two cents though 

That's exactly why Canada leads the odds of hosting it. Also, FIFA needs to shed that era of corruption by making sure 2026 is cleaner than heaven itself and drama free. With the USA stuck with Trump until beginning 2021 and Mexico crime rate, Canada is as safe as it gets. The talks of co-bids illustrates the US insecurity in their ability of winning that landslide vote. The whole planet knows they could host the whole thing on their own, yet they are open to co-bidding. Canada's potential win is very real and they would rather co-bid with us and flex their muscles to present the finals than getting nothing at all.

As for FIFA, making sure that CPL succeeds in a G7 nation that happens to be the planet's 10th economy is well within their mandate and it makes sense to penetrate that high potential market. They already are in the USA and Mexico while Canada is still right around the corner. A Canadian being Vice-President of FIFA kind of helps too ... by that I mean, he's well positioned to know all the inside information and backstage opinions to help the CSA make the best bid possible.

My personal hope is that the CSA doesn't cave and agree to co-bid. However, I understand their dilemma. Say yes to co-bid and you are guaranteed the World Cup on your soil, greatly helping the CPL despite risking the US overshadowing you. Refuse the co-bid and you risk having nothing....but if you win, the sporting world will shine on Canada alone.... This is a very tough decision indeed for the CSA.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

7 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

No disrespect intended, but I have no idea how anyone could feel confident putting out statements that specific...

Also find it interesting that two guys claiming inside info have heard what appear to be sharply contrasting things. What we do know is that MLS is entrenched in the three biggest markets that combined cover around a third of the country's population and that the NASL and USL are in two of the other three with over 1 million people and are probably not going to be involved and there are rumours that the Whitecaps are thinking about moving their USL operation to Calgary. Would have thought all that taken together favours a scenario involving cities like K/W.

[GuillermoDelQuarto]

3 minutes ago, Ansem said:

That's exactly why Canada leads the odds of hosting it. Also, FIFA needs to shed that era of corruption by making sure 2026 is cleaner than heaven itself and drama free. With the USA stuck with Trump until beginning 2021 and Mexico crime rate, Canada is as safe as it gets. The talks of co-bids illustrates the US insecurity in their ability of winning that landslide vote. The whole planet knows they could host the whole thing on their own, yet they are open to co-bidding. Canada's potential win is very real and they would rather co-bid with us and flex their muscles to present the finals than getting nothing at all.

As for FIFA, making sure that CPL succeeds in a G7 nation that happens to be the planet's 10th economy is well within their mandate and it makes sense to penetrate that high potential market. They already are in the USA and Mexico while Canada is still right around the corner. A Canadian being Vice-President of FIFA kind of helps too ... by that I mean, he's well positioned to know all the inside information and backstage opinions to help the CSA make the best bid possible.

My personal hope is that the CSA doesn't cave and agree to co-bid. However, I understand their dilemma. Say yes to co-bid and you are guaranteed the World Cup on your soil, greatly helping the CPL despite risking the US overshadowing you. Refuse the co-bid and you risk having nothing....but if you win, the sporting world will shine on Canada alone.... This is a very tough decision indeed for the CSA.

Honestly I'll be ecstatic whether it's a cohost or not.  But obviously solo would be cooler.

Like you said we are in a good position.  

[Ansem]

2 minutes ago, matty said:

You can say no to money men and leagues have in the past. Look I'm not saying it Won't happen, I'm saying it's a great deal down the road based on what I've been told by people with more . Kw whether you want to admit it or not is going to have to deal with toronto and hamilton. Mls expansion isn't as fucking gungho as you're making it out to be.

"You just don't say no to deep pockets like that without studying their proposal."

That was the other key sentence. Sure, leagues have their own plans but factors like a viable deep pocket prospect meeting all the league's criteria can make such league deviate from their plan. Of course, depends who's knocking on your door, but it's hard to believe that a Geoff Molson would be escorted out of the building.

Look at MLS and what they are doing. At this rate, they might it 32 teams way before the NHL and MLB, while they used to say they would stop at 24 I think

[Ansem]

2 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Also find it interesting that two guys claiming inside info have heard what appear to be sharply contrasting things. What we do know is that MLS is entrenched in the three biggest markets that combined cover around a third of the country's population and that the NASL and USL are in two of the other three with over 1 million people and are probably not going to be involved and there are rumours that the Whitecaps are thinking about moving their USL operation to Calgary. Would have thought all that taken together favours a scenario involving cities like K/W.

I think it's fair to say that if you wish the pro CPL hopeful to dismiss any rumours/hearsay about the league without concrete facts, you should start doing the same regarding the same rumours and hearsay you keep using to make your case against the CPL.

Deal?

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

How am I making a case against CPL with that?

[matty]

1 minute ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Also find it interesting that two guys claiming inside info have heard what appear to be sharply contrasting things.

It happens. I can't speak for anyone else's source. Mine was a press person that isn't an indie blogger.

4 minutes ago, Ansem said:

"You just don't say no to deep pockets like that without studying their proposal."

That was the other key sentence. Sure, leagues have their own plans but factors like a viable deep pocket prospect meeting all the league's criteria can make such league deviate from their plan. Of course, depends who's knocking on your door, but it's hard to believe that a Geoff Molson would be escorted out of the building.

Look at MLS and what they are doing. At this rate, they might it 32 teams way before the NHL and MLB, while they used to say they would stop at 24 I think

I know what you said and Mls's isn't as fucking batshit aggressive as your thinking.

[Ansem]

1 minute ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

How am I making a case against CPL with that?

We don't know for sure that the Whitecaps are moving their B team to Calgary. Personally, that's freakin dumb if they do that. It's like TFC moving TFC II to Quebec City...good luck with that. Why not Kelowna? Makes more sense

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Ok, but that doesn't answer the question. I don't see how suggesting a scenario under which a Canadian league could happen based on the known facts is making a case against it.

[Ansem]

1 minute ago, matty said:

I know what you said and Mls's isn't as fucking batshit aggressive as your thinking.

Uh yeah, they are and there's a reason other league grew at a way slower pace then they are. The last league you could kind of say expanded aggressively was the NHL post 90s and they can't seem to shake the criticism of their product being lower due to diluting the talents among all those teams.

I'd hate to see what a 32 teams MLS would look like in that regard

[matty]

1 minute ago, Ansem said:

Uh yeah, they are and there's a reason other league grew at a way slower pace then they are. The last league you could kind of say expanded aggressively was the NHL post 90s and they can't seem to shake the criticism of their product being lower due to diluting the talents among all those teams.

I'd hate to see what a 32 teams MLS would look like in that regard

I'm using aggressive as a don't give a fuck just do it way here like how nasl was doing it. I'm also doubtful they're reach 32 but they're not looking at unproven markets.

Look you do this all the time. Someone says something you don't like even if it's reasonable like mine on kw getting a team and go ape shit pissed off. It doesn't show you championing the league it shows you being afraid of stuff you don't like to hear

[Ansem]

6 minutes ago, matty said:

I'm using aggressive as a don't give a fuck just do it way here like how nasl was doing it. I'm also doubtful they're reach 32 but they're not looking at unproven markets.

Look you do this all the time. Someone says something you don't like even if it's reasonable like mine on kw getting a team and go ape shit pissed off. It doesn't show you championing the league it shows you being afraid of stuff you don't like to hear

Going ape shit pissed off?

I'm just filling the blanks about the business side of sports. I did show MULTIPLE scenarios and naming yours as one of them...meaning that I think you're also right in different circumstances. There's no "black or white" in business and most business decisions are driven by a set of criterias/benchmarks. That's all, don't go ape shit on me now

[matty]

2 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Going ape shit pissed off?

I'm just filling the blanks about the business side of sports. I did show MULTIPLE scenarios and naming yours as one of them...meaning that I think you're also right in different circumstances. There's no "black or white" in business and most business decisions are driven by a set of criterias/benchmarks. That's all, don't go ape shit on me now

It's how you do it which has me saying ape shit. You come with several in a matter of minutes and type in a manner which feels talking down and pretty pissy. I like that you care and think about things but it's too much man especially over 15 minutes online.

[-Hammer-]

On 1/7/2017 at 7:02 AM, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Easy to say when you are in what is basically an outer suburb of Toronto. What happens in the other cities that are not an easy travel distance from an MLS team, if you poison the well for them? Even London is arguably in this camp as most people would regard the drive as too long to do 18+ times a season, and it should be remembered that but for the CSA's moratorium London may well have had a USL team by now along with Victoria and Winnipeg.

So the crux of your argument is "Better to have never loved at all, unless it is to an average farmhand who sells crops to the local agricultural corp, then to have ever loved and lost" 

What do people in Winnipeg, or London, or Victoria do? The same thing they do now with no pro team. They wait until a league comes around and opts to put a team there. If other cities aren't an easy travel distance from MLS, that's the fault of MLS for refusing the expand there. End of discussion.

Stop pretending that Canadian interests are better served in American leagues because they offer the weak promises of short term development at the cost of long term growth of the sport as a whole in our country, and stopped pretending that the USL isn't a giant farm league because a couple of teams are independent and trying to get into MLS while the overwhelming majority of them aren't and are struggling to survive even as affiliates.

[Ansem]

4 minutes ago, matty said:

It's how you do it which has me saying ape shit. You come with several in a matter of minutes and type in a manner which feels talking down and pretty pissy. I like that you care and think about things but it's too much man especially over 15 minutes online.

Sorry, I type fast. I was honestly supporting your arguments and had no intend in talking down to you.

[matty]

2 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Sorry, I type fast. I was honestly supporting your arguments and had no intend in talking down to you.

It's cool man. Sorry for saying you go ape shit.

 

This thread is now officially Canadian with the sorrys

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Just now, -Hammer- said:

....Stop pretending that Canadian interests are better served in American leagues...

Tell that to the CSA, who have been happy to get involved with both MLS and NWSL in recent years and have now placed MLS at the top of the Canadian player development pathway on the men's side by cooperating with Generation Adidas Canada. There's an obvious niche for a Canadian league at the moment but it's not with a break even predicated on 6000 to 8000 paid. It's with something a lot closer to the findings of the Easton report.

[-Hammer-]

9 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Tell that to the CSA, who have been happy to get involved with both MLS and NWSL in recent years and have now placed MLS at the top of the Canadian player development pathway on the men's side by cooperating with Generation Adidas Canada.There's an obvious niche for a Canadian league at the moment but it's not with a break even predicated on 6000 to 8000 paid. It's with something a lot closer to the findings of the Easton report.

You mean the same CSA who had to threaten desanctioning in order to get those concessions? You mean the same CSA who has put up the moratorium on teams playing in US leagues? You mean the same CSA who hasn't been able to produce a Hex worthy team (nevermind a WC Qualifying team) after 12+ years of barking up the MLS-USL-NASL tree?

The only thing that makes sense in your post is that there is an obvious niche for a Canadian league. Not a US Farm league, or a mixed limited franchise US league. A Canadian, run, sanctioned and operated league.

[Ansem]

4 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Tell that to the CSA, who have been happy to get involved with both MLS and NWSL in recent years and have now placed MLS at the top of the Canadian player development pathway on the men's side by cooperating with Generation Adidas Canada. There's an obvious niche for a Canadian league at the moment but it's not with a break even predicated on 6000 to 8000 paid. It's with something a lot closer to the findings of the Easton report.

To be fair, the old regime got in bed with the USSF and were happy to let them due the work. The new regime (May 2012) pretty much favors a different approach as they highlighted the failure of the current status quo. They have been working on CPL since 2013 (I think) and came out with a plan in 2014.

Since we're already in bed with the USSF on the MLS side, it's understandable that they are trying to improve Canadians conditions in that environment.

[matty]

13 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

 There's an obvious niche for a Canadian league at the moment but it's not with a break even predicated on 6000 to 8000 paid. It's with something a lot closer to the findings of the Easton report.

Gonna sin here and agree with bbtb here. I think in the early years (at least first 5 years or even decade) most teams will be taking in 3500-5000 average per game. I do think some will do better but most will be under 5000 for a while. Could be wrong but i do think this will be the case.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

 

1 minute ago, -Hammer- said:

You mean the same CSA who had to threaten desanctioning in order to get those concessions? You mean the same CSA who has put up to moratorium on teams playing in US leagues? You mean the same CSA who hasn't been able to produce a Hex worthy team (nevermind a WC Qualifying team) after 12+ years of barking up the MLS-USL-NASL tree?

The only thing that makes sense in your post is that there is an obvious niche for a Canadian league. Not a US Farm league, or a mixed limited franchise US league. A Canadian, run, sanctioned and operated league.

Meanwhile 5 of the 6 markets with over 1 million people have MLS, NASL or USL teams and there are tweets from what people on here say is a credible source claiming that the Whitecaps are thinking about moving their USL affiliate to the sixth under local ownership. Wrap yourself in the flag as much as you like, but that doesn't look like a scenario that is ripe for the sort of league you crave.

[matty]

2 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

 

Meanwhile 5 of the 6 markets with over 1 million people have MLS, NASL or USL teams and there are tweets from what people on here say is a credible source claiming that the Whitecaps are thinking about moving their USL affiliate to the sixth under local ownership. Wrap yourself in the flag as much as you like, but that doesn't look like a scenario that is ripe for the sort of league you crave.

Usl isn't a real draw especially reserve style teams

[Ansem]

46 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Ok, but that doesn't answer the question. I don't see how suggesting a scenario under which a Canadian league could happen based on the known facts is making a case against it.

 

3 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

 

Meanwhile 5 of the 6 markets with over 1 million people have MLS, NASL or USL teams and there are tweets from what people on here say is a credible source claiming that the Whitecaps are thinking about moving their USL affiliate to the sixth under local ownership. Wrap yourself in the flag as much as you like, but that doesn't look like a scenario that is ripe for the sort of league you crave.

You just answered your own question