Canadian Premier League

[TRM]

1 hour ago, danielmero said:

I'm posting this twitter message from today:

If this is true, it's hard to imagine them going to USL since MLS is impossible.

Why is that hard to imagine? Some USL sides are drawing great crowds and travel costs would be reduced plus USL may try to do D2 so I don't see the down side. The fans would only know the team by the name not so much by the level they are playing at. Heck most would probably look at USL with its dozens of teams and say "This league is a lot bigger, it must be better".

[shermanator]

44 minutes ago, TRM said:

Why is that hard to imagine? Some USL sides are drawing great crowds and travel costs would be reduced plus USL may try to do D2 so I don't see the down side. The fans would only know the team by the name not so much by the level they are playing at. Heck most would probably look at USL with its dozens of teams and say "This league is a lot bigger, it must be better".

I think that the Fury going to USL for 2017 would make sense if there is an actual CPL launching in 2018. It allows the club to cut costs, and build up a Canadian roster a year before other clubs can get started.

Of course, if there is no CPL launching in 2018, I would wonder if the CSA would be okay with the Fury going to USL long term. They did have a moratorium on no new Canadian USL clubs after all.

[Gopherbashi]

14 minutes ago, shermanator said:

I think that the Fury going to USL for 2017 would make sense if there is an actual CPL launching in 2018. It allows the club to cut costs, and build up a Canadian roster a year before other clubs can get started.

Of course, if there is no CPL launching in 2018, I would wonder if the CSA would be okay with the Fury going to USL long term. They did have a moratorium on no new Canadian USL clubs after all.

Depends on how long USL remains a D3 league.  Hard to see that lasting indefinitely with NASL going the way it's going.

[Gopherbashi]

http://ottawacitizen.com/sports/soccer/fury-expected-to-return-in-2017

Of note though in the Citizen's article is the following quote:

It makes sense that the Ottawa Sports and Entertainment group bean counters would be trying to account for why the team loses as much as $2 million a year, how that team can survive if it averages about 1,500 less each game than it needs to break even.

There was a discussion a number of pages ago in this thread about how many fans the CPL would need to bring in to break even.  I think we were guessing about 9000 at the time, but if this info is accurate then about 7000 would be sufficient.

[Kent]

3 hours ago, shermanator said:

I think that the Fury going to USL for 2017 would make sense if there is an actual CPL launching in 2018. It allows the club to cut costs, and build up a Canadian roster a year before other clubs can get started.

Of course, if there is no CPL launching in 2018, I would wonder if the CSA would be okay with the Fury going to USL long term. They did have a moratorium on no new Canadian USL clubs after all.

As for the Canadian roster, I don't think NASL stops them form building up a Canadian roster. NASL just prevents American teams from building Canadian rosters.

[nolbertos]

The timing seems suspect, but makes sense as MLS will probably get the USL Div. 2 status and with a better fixture schedule and less travel costs, probably will help them cut costs.  I think Edmonton should follow and join the USL.  Also with MLS making Canadians domestic, they'll be able to profit in some way by selling the next Cyle Larin down south. 

[rob.notenboom]

39 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

http://ottawacitizen.com/sports/soccer/fury-expected-to-return-in-2017

Of note though in the Citizen's article is the following quote:

 

 

There was a discussion a number of pages ago in this thread about how many fans the CPL would need to bring in to break even.  I think we were guessing about 9000 at the time, but if this info is accurate then about 7000 would be sufficient.

Anyone else start reading that article, start looking for any evidence to justify the headline, and then get to the end without finding any?

Anyone else get the sense that the author of the article completely mistook the 'shockwaves on Twitter' to be saying that the Fury would not be playing in 2017 instead of the actual rumour which was that the Fury would not be playing in NASL but instead in a different league in 2017?

[Gopherbashi]

10 minutes ago, rob.notenboom said:

Anyone else start reading that article, start looking for any evidence to justify the headline, and then get to the end without finding any?

Anyone else get the sense that the author of the article completely mistook the 'shockwaves on Twitter' to be saying that the Fury would not be playing in 2017 instead of the actual rumour which was that the Fury would not be playing in NASL but instead in a different league in 2017?

I'll trust the Citizen to a certain extent when dealing with fluff pieces about OFFC or OSEG, but there's no way in hell I'll take them as a reliable source for the fractal pissing contest that is the US soccer pyramid.

[rob.notenboom]

22 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

I'll trust the Citizen to a certain extent when dealing with fluff pieces about OFFC or OSEG, but there's no way in hell I'll take them as a reliable source for the fractal pissing contest that is the US soccer pyramid.

Yes I'm not familiar with the Citizen tbf. Article just rang hollow for me. And agreed on the US pyramid.

[-Hammer-]

4 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

There was a discussion a number of pages ago in this thread about how many fans the CPL would need to bring in to break even.  I think we were guessing about 9000 at the time, but if this info is accurate then about 7000 would be sufficient.

I'm not sure how you're comming to that number. I'm not saying it's wrong, but it just strikes me that moving to a Canadian league, there would be a lot of windfalls the Fury could reap.The exchange rate with the US is a huge problem for the Canadian based NASL teams. Being able to have contracts handled completely in Canadian funds is a huge benefit first off.

Second, while there isn't a surefire means of accurately estimating travel costs, although having 12 of your games within bussing distance (see breakdown bellow) and six flights across the country vs 14 flights to Florida, Peutro Rico, San Fran and Oaklahoma has to be cheaper.

Anyways, I thought I'd run the numbers on the CPL again.

Lets assume an 8 team league, with a 20 game season (everyone does a home at home and everyone does an extra two home at homes with 3 other regional rivals to keep transport costs down) and a 1.25 Million dollar salary floor and cap. That's really the key number here.

Divided amongst 22 players, that amounts close to 57,000 a season (which is in the NASL ballpark), which while not the kind of money that's going to draw top end talent, is certainly a fair wage for someone to consider it a viable career option. This is of course only leauge play, it doesn't include additional revenue from friendlies, the VCup and assumes it's done the English way IE: No post season.

Let's assume a low pricepoint of $12.50 a ticket. That's $50,000 a game to cover salary, meaning an average attendance of 5,000 is needed to make a go on average.

The bigger issue is travel costs. I would like to think that merchandise, concessions and media rights would cover that expense.

So pretty much, to me it looks fairly break even apart from firendlies, V.Cup games and a small post season (where the top two division teams play a home at home for all the marbles) to make your extra money.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

10 hours ago, rob.notenboom said:

Anyone else start reading that article, start looking for any evidence to justify the headline, and then get to the end without finding any?

Headlines are usually inserted by editorial staff rather than the journalist and sometimes do not reflect the content of the article, as a result. It's obvious from the press release that the Fury plan to continue operations, but to leave the NASL, because they deliberately neglect to deny the rumour in that regard. In the past week Fort Lauderdale announced an attendance of 455 and Rayo OKC lost half the tiles for their artificial field, because their previous minority owner took them from their stadium leaving them without a suitable playing surface for their next game. The writing is clearly on the wall elsewhere, so it makes sense that the remainder of the NASL will be carefully considering their future options. It looks like the Rayo OKC fiasco and Minnesota leaving a year sooner than had appeared likely has started a process of unravelling that will end in the NASL's demise at the end of the season and USL emerging as the only D2 by next summer. The good news is Ottawa appear to want to be on board. Hopefully, Edmonton and Hamilton will as well, so there can be a six team Canadian division.

[Macksam]

18 hours ago, danielmero said:

I'm posting this twitter message from today:

If this is true, it's hard to imagine them going to USL since MLS is impossible.

Impossible in what sense?

[ted]

18 hours ago, shermanator said:

They did have a moratorium on no new Canadian USL clubs after all.

Do they still? Has it actually come up in the past couple of years?

 

15 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

There was a discussion a number of pages ago in this thread about how many fans the CPL would need to bring in to break even.  I think we were guessing about 9000 at the time, but if this info is accurate then about 7000 would be sufficient.

I have to favour the lower number (and maybe even suggest 5,000) just so I can still pretend Victoria could be in the mix.

[-Hammer-]

6 hours ago, Macksam said:

Impossible in what sense?

Well...first off, there are very few owners who could pony up to the $100-200 million US expansion fee that an MLS franchise touts, plus a cap that is twice the price of an NASL team. Also given Hunt and his group have the rights to TD Place, it's pretty much only him that could do that, and I don't think Hunt has that kind of capital.

Second, MLS has far more lucrative, tested markets down south that they are likely more eager to pursue then Ottawa. This is especially true since it is very clear they are chasing TV revenue as hard as they can and want to do anything they can to get a better TV deal. There simply isn't a lot of TV revenue to be had by Canadian expansion.

Third, simple timing. There is no way MLS without any marketing regarding a new franchise is going to have the team playing in 2017. There is way to much player movement that needs to be addressed before going ahead with that.

I'll agree impossible, no, but extremely unlikely we're going to see Ottawa (or any MLS Canadian franchise) any time soon.

[Gopherbashi]

18 hours ago, -Hammer- said:

I'm not sure how you're comming to that number.

I took the 5500 average attendance that OFFC has this year and added 1500 extra fans that the Citizen said OFFC needed to break even.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Interesting exchanges happening on twitter at the moment:

This weekend was when the CPL business plan was going to be voted on at a CSA general meeting, so looks like that particular saga is drawing to a close without even getting as far as the CUSL did.

[rob.notenboom]

1 hour ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Interesting exchanges happening on twitter at the moment:

This weekend was when the CPL business plan was going to be voted on at a CSA general meeting, so looks like that particular saga is drawing to a close without even getting as far as the CUSL did.

Does someone have a link where it was stated that it would be this weekend? I don't recall seeing or hearing that officially. Did Mont Vic say that?

It would be curious timing as the CSA is having meetings with all the provinces' TDs right now. This meeting has been on the agenda for a months (apparently this is an annual event) and CanPL was never on the agenda according to some technical staff from SK that I talked to last week. So I wonder if the idea that meetings this weekend were the CanPL business plan meetings were just a mistake from someone trying to put two and two together. 

I recall hearing 'early Fall' only with no specific dates. Someone must have links to those Mont Vic interviews or anywhere else this was discussed. 

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

A quick google produced these.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Premier_League#History

http://www.rednationonline.ca/Articles2016/RecentCPLreportsconcerning.aspx

Might do some more later to find where it started. Think it was Victor Montagliani when he talked about them preparing the business plan.

[rob.notenboom]

1 hour ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

A quick google produced these.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Premier_League#History

http://www.rednationonline.ca/Articles2016/RecentCPLreportsconcerning.aspx

Might do some more later to find where it started. Think it was Victor Montagliani when he talked about them preparing the business plan.

Yes I remember reading the RNO article, but I also recall thinking at the time that he was simply repeating the rumours that had been tossed around by other bloggers. However, I am at least partially basing that on my own incomplete memories from the time ... I seem to recall Mont Vic saying that the business plan would be discussed at a meeting in the Fall. Where the first weekend of September information came from, I'm not 100% sure. But as has happened numerous times on both sides of this situation, rumours have popped up, they've been seized on by people on social media and sometimes bloggers and repeated, and then suddenly they are treated as established fact or sourced reporting when they are neither. The final step of course is for people to then use them in their cases that CanPL is/is not happening. 

Of course my memory could be completely off. If I have a chance to go and find the videos of Mont Vic's interviews I'll have to take a look. It would sure be nice to get some clarification either way. 

[matty]

16 minutes ago, rob.notenboom said:

Yes I remember reading the RNO article, but I also recall thinking at the time that he was simply repeating the rumours that had been tossed around by other bloggers. However, I am at least partially basing that on my own incomplete memories from the time ... I seem to recall Mont Vic saying that the business plan would be discussed at a meeting in the Fall. Where the first weekend of September information came from, I'm not 100% sure. But as has happened numerous times on both sides of this situation, rumours have popped up, they've been seized on by people on social media and sometimes bloggers and repeated, and then suddenly they are treated as established fact or sourced reporting when they are neither. The final step of course is for people to then use them in their cases that CanPL is/is not happening. 

Of course my memory could be completely off. If I have a chance to go and find the videos of Mont Vic's interviews I'll have to take a look. It would sure be nice to get some clarification either way. 

The RNO article was based off of the blog/Twitter chat at the time. The Labour Day rumour comes from the mlswriters' twitter

[rob.notenboom]

10 minutes ago, matty said:

The RNO article was based off of the blog/Twitter chat at the time. The Labour Day rumour comes from the mlswriters' twitter

So do you recall exactly what it was that Montagliani said in reference to this? I thought he said something regarding 'in the Fall' or 'early Fall' or something like that. But I just don't remember exactly what. Still haven't had time to look up the videos either.

[matty]

3 minutes ago, rob.notenboom said:

So do you recall exactly what it was that Montagliani said in reference to this? I thought he said something regarding 'in the Fall' or 'early Fall' or something like that. But I just don't remember exactly what. Still haven't had time to look up the videos either.

It was on the Red Card podcast on April 28th I think.

"Hopefully we'll be in the position to present (a specific strategic and business plan which was to be completed over the summer) to the board of directors of Canadian soccer in probabily the fall, the fall session."

[rob.notenboom]

25 minutes ago, matty said:

It was on the Red Card podcast on April 28th I think.

"Hopefully we'll be in the position to present (a specific strategic and business plan which was to be completed over the summer) to the board of directors of Canadian soccer in probabily the fall, the fall session."

Ah nice. Thanks. I'm going to have to go back and give that a listen.

Probably in the Fall session is specific but not particularly iron clad. Oh well. 

In case people need the link: http://www.nextsportstar.com/index.php/show/red-card-april-28-2016/

[Gopherbashi]

4 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

This weekend was when the CPL business plan was going to be voted on at a CSA general meeting, so looks like that particular saga is drawing to a close without even getting as far as the CUSL did.

As long as this saga is, in fact, coming to an end.  Getting sick of the constant waiting game for this one.

Either do it or don't do it, but stop wasting everyone's time.

[ted]

5 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

This weekend was when the CPL business plan was going to be voted on at a CSA general meeting, so looks like that particular saga is drawing to a close without even getting as far as the CUSL did.

Just to clarify, I don't think the CUSL ever got to a CSA general meeting either.

 

1 hour ago, Gopherbashi said:

As long as this saga is, in fact, coming to an end.  Getting sick of the constant waiting game for this one.

Either do it or don't do it, but stop wasting everyone's time.

I feel like that most of the time too.