Ain't it fun to fill quiet time with speculation?
Exactly.
So let me take a stab at this. 41 teams. 8 in the top group and we are currently 10th so that puts us in tier2 with a group of probably 14 teams. That would leave 19 of the super small teams in tier3.
That could be 26 games over 2 years or 13 a year.
Here are the teams that would be in tier2 (9th to 22cd) :
Curaçao, Canada, El Salvador, St. Kitts and Nevis, Nicaragua, Suriname, Guatemala, Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, Barbados, Belize, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Puerto Rico.
If we can't field a mostly U23 team against at least the bottom half of those and win then we have bigger problems than I thought.
I'm not sure how many spots will go through pro/rel but probably 2 with maybe a playoff for a third.