Canadian Premier League

[Complete Homer]

Just now, jedinathan said:

Great. The players will get paid enough to make more than NASL players. That doesn't mean the quality of play will be above what the NASL is currently at. Its gonna take several years to get to that point. Canada just doesn't have the players at that level, otherwise there would be 75% of FCEd roster, or Ottawa's roster already. Putting in those ratios are great for the future development, but just putting out cash doesn't mean that players can play at that level.

I hear what you're saying about Edmonton. I do disagree with how important it needs to be, that there are outside investors willing to look at Edmonton as a potential investment. You keep on labeling Edmonton as a major market, but everything that FCEd has shown is that its simply not a major market. There's no "major obstacle" in Edmonton that prevents the CPL from being a success in my opinion.

To be fair, there is nothing that is restricting Ottawa. Just rumors from sources about limits. Same as my info about Katz. And sure, Edmonton could get the same response, but they haven't needed to apply for a waiver to play in the USL. That's where the restrictions can come from. Edmonton (to the best of my knowledge) is still in a very good standing with the CSA. At some point, the CSA could for sure say "Alright, we're going to be looking to transition you to the CPL, so here's the criteria" but the point is that they haven't. At all.

Rollins has reported before that they were considering starting at a much lower quota and slowly ratcheting up over time. Hence the debate way back about a 30, 40, or 50% quota. I haven't heard anything suggesting 75% for a long time

[jedinathan]

1 minute ago, Complete Homer said:

I'm not sure what you're saying here, mind rephrasing? 

I'm imagining a future scenario several years down the line (assuming NASL survives) and Fath finally calls it quits. Katz sees CPL playing at NASL level and drawing similar crowds (assuming it is now stable and meeting expectations), decides to pick up a low cost asset and see what happens in CPL with actual rivals and lowered travel costs.

He could make a marketing push of "saving the team" and "bringing it up a league" and even invest in some of the promotion that Edmonton has struggled with

Who knows what Katz's exact trepidations regarding CPL are? Is he worried about the level of play? Thinks it's too risky to be a launch team? Was put off by Futballer's group and dismissed the whole idea? Is he insistent on an American league? Several of those may be addressed a few seasons into CPL's life and suddenly become attractive to Katz 

We can agree that Edmonton won't be  a 2018 or 2019 team, but I think it's silly to dismiss the possibility when Katz has been interested in owning and supporting a team in a league that has become a punchline in the soccer community 

Its hard to clarify as there's a full explanation that was told to me in confidence, and I don't really want to break that.

I think saying that there was a bid is overstating it as well.

I'd like to see Fath doing that as well. I think that Katz isn't interested in much unless its top league in its market. The Capitals (baseball) kinda show that. They haven't done anything in 4-5 years now, and the sport is minimal right now.

[Gopherbashi]

I can see the CSA eventually saying that they'll only sanction FCE  so long as there's not a CPL team in the same city.

It would let them keep going as present, give them an opportunity to move over of their own accord, put them on notice that an ambitious investor could knock them out of the market, and gives Canadian soccer an escape route should no one try to expand and the whole project becomes a flop.

[jedinathan]

1 minute ago, Complete Homer said:

Rollins has reported before that they were considering starting at a much lower quota and slowly ratcheting up over time. Hence the debate way back about a 30, 40, or 50% quota. I haven't heard anything suggesting 75% for a long time

Fair enough, but that its the number that people love to throw out there. Just saying that the quality isn't going to be the same to start. It'll take a few years for the league to start and get its feet under itself.

The very creation of the league causes even more of a talent vacuum in both Canada and the States though. There is a finite amount of players at this level, and having 3-4 leagues bidding on them will only drive the price up.

[Complete Homer]

10 minutes ago, jedinathan said:

Fair enough, but that its the number that people love to throw out there. Just saying that the quality isn't going to be the same to start. It'll take a few years for the league to start and get its feet under itself.

The very creation of the league causes even more of a talent vacuum in both Canada and the States though. There is a finite amount of players at this level, and having 3-4 leagues bidding on them will only drive the price up.

If you're interested in scrolling back through... Probably 100 pages... I did a small writeup about the player pool using Canuck_Abroad data

Basically, if we can assume all Canadians with only a Canadian passport who are in foreign leagues earning less than 40k (excluding anyone in MLS or on an MLS2 team), 1/4 of Canadians in the same boat financially but have dual citizenship in the country they are playing in (to correct for people with tenuous motivations for moving to Canada), a couple aging vets who might appreciate a victory lap in CPL, and a small CIS draft (1 player signed per team), I believe we got to roughly enough pro players for 55% quota for an 8 team league. Obviously not everyone is out of contract at the same time, but it demonstrates that there is a fair number of pros in lower leagues abroad that could bolster the league if salaries are high enough to attract them.

Couple that with L1O/PLSQ guys moving up, more NCAA guys getting contracts after grad, the 90% of MLS academy grads who don't get an MLS contract who have a legitimate chance to continue their career, I don't think the pool will be an issue as long as they start the quota low enough to adapt for the adjustment years.

Also, like baulderdash77 said, if there's only 6 teams in 2018 and more 2019, the bottleneck on domestic talent will be alleviated 

[-Hammer-]

I for one think that the Fath's aren't moving from NASL because they have a substantial stake in the league (as in literal stock). If they jump ship, a good chunk of that stock and investment becomes worthless and they probably want to milk the expansion cow as much as they can before even considering jumping ship.

I think the Fath's aren't going to jump ship until they know for sure that the CPL eclipses their NASL investment and costs and a Calgary team sets up shop down the road. Now if this happens through the CPL's successes or the NASL's failures, who knows?

I don't see the CSA forcing the issue, because barring a huge criminal indictment of NASL, saying "You have to play here, but MLS teams stay where they are." isn't viable.

I suspect the way this goes down is the Fath's stay in the NASL until they get bored of tanking losses or the CPL becomes a more profitable possibility. From there they then sell all or part of the team to a CPL owner who makes the jump and then sell their stake in NASL to some other US based team who is interested.

[Complete Homer]

The way Sandor put it, even if the NASL tanked, Fath isn't interested in trying again. I honestly think the only chance Edmonton still has a pro soccer team in ten years is if someone an order of magnitude wealthier picks up the team when NASL does eventually nosedive. Katz seems like the only plausible player, and Jedinate seems to be implying that the "bid" was never a true bid (I'll take that at face value though not entirely sure what it means) and that Katz wouldn't be interested unless CPL really proves itself

Not sure who else could be in the position to save the Eddies other than Katz. When I researched a bit, almost all of Alberta's billionaires/100s millionaires are Calgary based, and almost all of them are already shareholders in Calgary Sports and Entertainment. 

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Spring 2018 is not that far away in terms of the logistics of what it takes to get a league launched. If they had all their ducks in a row Victor Montagliani would be front and centre right now lapping up the glory of an imminent pro league launch announcement prior to taking up the CONCACAF gig full-time. Paul Beirne was a sensible hire. Having Anthony Totera acting as their main spokesperson (probably by default rather than design) wasn't helping them in credibility terms. An angle to ponder is whether his MLS connections might be seen as being of value in terms of building a constructive rather than a combatorial relationship. 

[jedinathan]

2 hours ago, Complete Homer said:

The way Sandor put it, even if the NASL tanked, Fath isn't interested in trying again. I honestly think the only chance Edmonton still has a pro soccer team in ten years is if someone an order of magnitude wealthier picks up the team when NASL does eventually nosedive. Katz seems like the only plausible player, and Jedinate seems to be implying that the "bid" was never a true bid (I'll take that at face value though not entirely sure what it means) and that Katz wouldn't be interested unless CPL really proves itself

Not sure who else could be in the position to save the Eddies other than Katz. When I researched a bit, almost all of Alberta's billionaires/100s millionaires are Calgary based, and almost all of them are already shareholders in Calgary Sports and Entertainment. 

From what I understand, the bid was a conversation where there were massive conditions tied to Katz and Co buying into the ownership of FCEd. They had some very clear things that had to happen, which Faths were not on board with, so nothing proceeded further.
I would agree with your assessment of Faths and NASL vs CPL too. With the literal shares they hold in the NASL, I would think it would take some serious proof of stability in the CPL, as well as some serious instability in the NASL (Which I'm not convinced is folding as others like to suggest, but that's for a different thread), for the Faths to consider switching. Its not like they don't talk with other Canadian clubs, so I'm sure that the Faths will have an ear to the ground in terms of what is going on, and if the various investors and owners in the CPL are finding it positive, they'll hear and assess those things. Those things matter. The Edmonton market is FAR from closed off (in terms of FCEd moving over to CPL) so long as there's a respect and appreciation built between the league, the CSA and Faths. Tom Fath in particular is very much an old school business man, and how he is approached with things like the CPL matter a TON.

Just as a counter point as well.... Jeff Paulus is a MASSIVE advocate of the CPL (or any official Canadian only league). So its not like there aren't parts of FCEd that aren't interested in joining or the creation of that league.  

As for the player content... Yes I hear you, but as it stands right now, there is a substantial ask from the MLS, NASL, and USL for players of a certain quality. I believe that Steve Sandor has addressed it, though I may just be thinking of conversations with him. Unfortunately there is now a situation where the salary of the average player is going through the roof due to the number of options for said player. Clubs are now having to pay much more than players cost as little as 3-4 years ago. You add another 6-10 clubs into that same market, and you've now added another 150-250 roster spots that players can now be approached to fill. There simply aren't enough quality domestic players (American or Canadian) to fit that. It will result in either a reduction of quality of play across the board (minus where league rules and owners can afford to pay that extra amount) or will result in salaries rising again. I have kept an eye on those numbers you sent out, and I don't disagree with them. Just have to remember that there are a number of players that are now situated overseas and may not consider coming "home" as they've moved family and created new lives where the work is/was. FCEd and Ottawa were very lucky to attract a few players back IMO.

[Complete Homer]

^In general, I agree about player availability, especially the point regarding not everyone interested in coming back to Canada. However, I'd also throw our there that I don't think finding USL-quality players will be that difficult, and think that there is talent in L1O that would be solid USL players if they were willing to move south. While the majority of our USL base is MLS2, plenty of guys have come out of the woodwork and done well despite a lack of pedigree, so I'm not entirely convinced.

But again, yours is a valid position this is why I'd advocate for a 30% quota off the bat, so that the level of quality remains very predictable in the early years, because even if a higher quota I'd imaginable, there's too many variables to risk the league running into the field looking bush

[jedinathan]

And to be honest, theres absolutely NOTHING wrong with it. The CPL should take its time and develop as carefully as possible. I hope (let me repeat that... I HOPE) that those involved have been doing everything to slowly and very carefully take their time with things, which is why we've had such a slow release of info/no info at all released over the last 4 years on this.

I think people take it as a slight when I say that the CPL will start below NASL, but realistically, it should, and slowly work on developing the rivalry, player developmental systems, and getting things in order on building a fan base and culture.

[Moldy9]

4 hours ago, jedinathan said:

I think that Katz isn't interested in much unless its top league in its market. The Capitals (baseball) kinda show that. They haven't done anything in 4-5 years now, and the sport is minimal right now.

Yeah I can't see why Katz would dip down to minor league play unless he saw a potential growth in a small investment. Maybe Oiler Entertainment buying it just like how MLSE owns the Leafs Raptors and TFC? 

Anyways the Capitals are no longer and have been known as the Prospects the last few years. Not even sure if the ball club still has a pulse and draws crowds. Its a shame. Telus Field is a nice ballpark right smack downtown in the river valley. Could even make for a nice refurbished soccer stadium à la Portland Timbers. 

[-Hammer-]

3 hours ago, Complete Homer said:

But again, yours is a valid position this is why I'd advocate for a 30% quota off the bat, so that the level of quality remains very predictable in the early years, because even if a higher quota I'd imaginable, there's too many variables to risk the league running into the field looking bush

I agree, I'd like to see to start with 3 domestics must be on the field (not just on the roster) at all times,and move it slowly up to 7 over a 16 year span. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a club to woo or develop a domestic player in the span of 4 years.

The best part, is because the CSA is sanctioning it, they can actually enforce a quota.

[matty]

3 hours ago, Complete Homer said:

But again, yours is a valid position this is why I'd advocate for a 30% quota off the bat, so that the level of quality remains very predictable in the early years, because even if a higher quota I'd imaginable, there's too many variables to risk the league running into the field looking bush

A 30% quota will possibly bite them in the ass if they are planning on marketing the league as a "Canadian League"

[-Hammer-]

Just now, matty said:

A 30% quota will possibly bite them in the ass if they are planning on marketing the league as a "Canadian League"

That is true, realistically though if they say at day one "Quota will be expanding, there is no option to decline." they may get away with it if they also pair teams with academies.

[matty]

Just now, -Hammer- said:

That is true, realistically though if they say at day one "Quota will be expanding, there is no option to decline." they may get away with it if they also pair teams with academies.

I don't know how effective that method would be. I honestly think a 50% roster quota and 3 on field at a time is very doable (especially with 6 teams) and would appeal more to your typical Canadian than a Latin/American/Euro majority roster would.

[jedinathan]

2 hours ago, Moldy9 said:

Yeah I can't see why Katz would dip down to minor league play unless he saw a potential growth in a small investment. Maybe Oiler Entertainment buying it just like how MLSE owns the Leafs Raptors and TFC? 

Anyways the Capitals are no longer and have been known as the Prospects the last few years. Not even sure if the ball club still has a pulse and draws crowds. Its a shame. Telus Field is a nice ballpark right smack downtown in the river valley. Could even make for a nice refurbished soccer stadium à la Portland Timbers. 

Again, skating dangerously close to off topic (I swear I can pull it back around though), but re: Prospects.. Semi-pro team. To my knowledge there is no involvement from the Katz group, but I have little to no knowledge on the subject. As for Telus field being looked at as a Soccer specific stadium... I know back in 2012 there was a time when FCEd was looking for something better than Foote Field (U of A grounds). I believe they took a solid look at Telus, and I know a few people mapped out what a pitch might look like in there. Long story short, the set up of the stands is at too acute an angle for it to fit anything more than the smallest pitch possible. It could have some renovations sure, but I don't think it would work very well. And would cost the city a lot more money than they appear to be willing to invest in the sport. Additionally, public transit is horrible down there, though there is decent parking (but then supporter culture becomes something of an issue, which has been noted throughout FCEd's lifetime). Which leads me to back on topic... Where does a CPL team play if its not FCEd at Clarke? Lets not forget those stands were bought and installed by the Faths as well. Unless you want a team that will undoubtably attract somewhere in the range of 1500-4000 people in Commonwealth (which would look absolutely horrible and sound even worse), there's pretty much no other options in Edmonton for an appropriate sized stadium. Sure the Faths might sell the stands to a new owner, but does that person want to invest money into that as well?

[GuillermoDelQuarto]

dae bow bow

[matty]

I'm betting Regina

[rob.notenboom]

3 minutes ago, matty said:

I'm betting Regina

Ha! Now wouldn't that be something. 

[matty]

6 minutes ago, rob.notenboom said:

Ha! Now wouldn't that be something. 

Pretty sure 50% of CPL DPs will be guys like Keane. Other half will be guys like Piatti.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, matty said:

A 30% quota will possibly bite them in the ass if they are planning on marketing the league as a "Canadian League"

This. Apologies if my numbers are a bit off, but by my quick and dirty count...

Montreal Impact: 9 Canadians, 31 total players, 29% Canadian

Toronto FC: 9 Canadians, 27 total players, 33% Canadian

Vancouver Whitecaps: 10 Canadians, 29 total players, 35% Canadian

So 30% might not be enough of a differentiator to set it apart from MLS. Especially if they do double dip into one of the MLS markets.

[Ansem]

37 minutes ago, matty said:

Pretty sure 50% of CPL DPs will be guys like Keane. Other half will be guys like Piatti.

Most likely more like Piatti. I doubt we'll see 7M DP in CPL in the first few years. MLS had to wait until 2007 for Beckham...over 10 years.

Piatti is a bargain. CPL needs to scout the hell out of the southern hemisphere and leave Europeans looking for one last paycheck before retirement to MLS.

CPL must focus on DP entering their prime or in their prime like Piatti

[matty]

16 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Most likely more like Piatti. I doubt we'll see 7M DP in CPL in the first few years. MLS had to wait until 2007 for Beckham...over 10 years.

Piatti is a bargain. CPL needs to scout the hell out of the southern hemisphere and leave Europeans looking for one last paycheck before retirement to MLS.

CPL must focus on DP entering their prime or in their prime like Piatti

Not the $7m DPs but $1m+ DPs who are 33+ that have had a noteworthy career. They're costly, past their primes and gimmicky but they will put butts in seats.

I do suspect teams will have 2 DPs. One will be what I just described and the other will be a Piatti type.

Even if they only have 1 DP, the one I described will be more useful to a team in the early years and should be the goal.

 

[Complete Homer]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

This. Apologies if my numbers are a bit off, but by my quick and dirty count...

Montreal Impact: 9 Canadians, 31 total players, 29% Canadian

Toronto FC: 9 Canadians, 27 total players, 33% Canadian

Vancouver Whitecaps: 10 Canadians, 29 total players, 35% Canadian

So 30% might not be enough of a differentiator to set it apart from MLS. Especially if they do double dip into one of the MLS markets.

I suppose, but a minimum # of starters has been floated by Rollins. And again, this is what we are talking about for year 1. If year 3 is 35%, year 5 is 40%, year 7 is 45%, year 9 is 50%, etc until you get to wherever you decide is a good cutoff, this would still do a lot more for Canada than MLS ever did. 

I think this league needs to demonstrate legitimacy as priority 1, I am just very skeptical of doing that if we start at a high quota 

But this is dragging out and I don't want to dominate the discussion by nitpicking numbers. There's probably more fun things