TOcanadafan Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Assuming Panama beats Cuba in the final game... Worst case scenario: Honduras beats Panama: We would need to tie or defeat Cuba, then defeat Honduras. A win against Cuba and draw against Honduras would only work if we destroyed Cuba (looks like by 4 or more). Other scenarios: If Honduras ties or loses to Panama: We would need a win and a draw against Cuba and Honduras (any combination giving us 4 points). We could qualify if Honduras loses and we beat Cuba by a crazy amount to offset a loss to Honduras. From what I've read, ties are broken by overall goal difference in the group, not head-to-head record. Found this on wikipedia and couldn't find on FIFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canadianfoot Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Assuming Panama beats Cuba in the final game... Worst case scenario: Honduras beats Panama: We would need to tie or defeat Cuba, then defeat Honduras. A win against Cuba and draw against Honduras would only work if we destroyed Cuba (looks like by 4 or more). Other scenarios: If Honduras ties or loses to Panama: We would need a win and a draw against Cuba and Honduras (any combination giving us 4 points). We could qualify if Honduras loses and we beat Cuba by a crazy amount to offset a loss to Honduras. From what I've read, ties are broken by overall goal difference in the group, not head-to-head record. Found this on wikipedia and couldn't find on FIFA. Panama 9 (+4) Honduras 7 (+2) CANADA 7 (+/- 0) Cuba 0 (-6) 2 goals differential between us and Honduras... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ensco Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I think this is the complete picture. I posted this elsewhere ... So. Dammit all to hell. Panama 9, Honduras 7, Canada 7 (Honduras +2, Canada 0 on GD). Let's assume Canada beat Cuba Oct 12. If Honduras beats Panama: it's Honduras 10, Canada 10, Panama 9. With Canada trailing both Panama (currently +4) and Honduras on GD. In this scenario, we will have to beat Honduras Oct 16. A tie will not be good enough unless Cuba tie Panama, or we beat Cuba by enough to offset the GD (they are currently +2 to us) If Panama beat Honduras, it's Panama 12, Canada 10, Honduras 7. A tie at Honduras would get us though. If we beat Cuba by only one goal, and Panama beat Honduras by only one goal, Honduras would beat us on GD if they beat us in the last game. But if we pound Cuba, this would reverse. If Panama and Honduras draw: it's Panama 10, Canada 10 (but trailing Panama on goal differential, unless we kill Cuba), and Honduras 8. A draw would see us through. Bottom line: we absolutely need to pour it on against Cuba, unless Panama are winning. Go Panama! We caught a break tonight, the weather was bad in Honduras, they only scored once. If we don't score three or four against Cuba, we will probably need to beat Honduras outright to get through. But with goals against Cuba, we could get that tiebreak and get through with a draw. NB: this is my source on tiebreakers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FI...on#Tiebreakers For FIFA World Cup qualifying stages using a league format, the method used for separating teams level on points is the same for all Confederations, as decided by FIFA itself.[6] If teams are even on points at the end of group play, the tied teams will be ranked by: goal difference in all group matches greater number of goals scored in all group matches greater number of points obtained in matches between the tied teams goal difference in matches between the tied teams greater number of goals scored in matches between the tied teams greater number of away goals scored in matches between the tied teams if only two teams are tied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianSoccerFan Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 That's good for us that it's overall goal difference as long as we can put a pounding on Cuba. I know Cuba's been tight to everyone in this group but I think it's a bit different now that they're officially eliminated with nothing to play for. They should be lacking in motivation in comparison to their first four games of the group. It would also help if it's a chilly night. Don't think the Cubans would cope too well in the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympique_de_Marseille Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It would also help if it's a chilly night. Don't think the Cubans would cope too well in the cold. Hopefully: A) They play poorly due to the cold. They have been attempting to bake their oppponents alive by playing in 2pm-5pm heat; let's hope the cold gets to them They feel this game matters little to them and so will bring in fewer players because of the fear that members of their squad will go on road trips to Niagra Falls ∨ Buffalo NY and never return! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trillium Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Builld a stadium in Nunavet.. S Harper do it the passage is open .. make it happen !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianSoccerFan Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 They feel this game matters little to them and so will bring in fewer players because of the fear that members of their squad will go on road trips to Niagra Falls ∨ Buffalo NY and never return! Ahh yes, the defection factor! Didn't think of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ditty Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Despite playing their home games in 40 degree afternoons, Cuba have arguably performed better on the road. But a cool October evening with a rabid Canadian crowd won't hurt. I don't see the fact of them being eliminated to be too much of a factor, unless they choose to blood a whole bunch of new players. The fact they're eliminated might actually see them be more comfortable with sitting back and trying to steal a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killgod Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 A 1 goal Panama win over Honduras: Canada defeats Cuba by 1 or 2 = Draw or better vs Honduras to get through Canada defeats Cuba by 3 = 1 goal LOSS or better vs Honduras to get through Canada defeats Cuba by 4 = 2 goal LOSS or better vs Honduras to get through Now if Panama wins by 2 goals: Canada defeats Cuba by 1 = Draw or better vs Honduras to get through Canada defeats Cuba by 2 = 1 goal LOSS or better vs Honduras to get through Canada defeats Cuba by 3 = 2 goal LOSS or better vs Honduras to get through That's our best case scenario right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyslexic nam Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I say we quietly approach a few of the Cubans pre-game, and offer to drive them anywhere in Canada so that they can seek the good life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maccaliam Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Is no one else worried about Honduras getting a result in Panama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Is no one else worried about Honduras getting a result in Panama? The worst case scenario is Honduras getting the win in Panama as it would likely require us to win out. However, Panama is not through either. Fortunately, they have to play Honduras before they play Cuba, so they will be motivated to get the result they need to be through safely and not leave it to an away game in Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killgod Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Is no one else worried about Honduras getting a result in Panama? Of course, but realistically, that's not an easy result for Honduras...who isn't in great form IMO. Neither Honduras or Canada look like a Hex team at this pint, it's very much up for grabs. Our backs our against the wall, international careers could be over. We have the weakest link in our group, at home. If we can't muster up a beating, then making the Hex is pointless. How do we survive the final group if we can't beat the weakest side in Round 3 at home when you need to? Put up 3 on Cuba and even a Honduras 1 goal win doesn't matter. In that case a scoreless draw @ Honduras puts us in a playoff, a scoring draw puts us through. Do we really expect to get out of the group with 3 goals total? Or without a result in a challenging spot? Come on. Time to go for it or hang up the boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califax Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Ryan's post was my inner monologue for the last 12 hours. "Gimmie 5" - That should be our motto for October 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesW Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I feel like this Canada team would rather play for a 0-0 draw in Honduras than a 3-0 win against Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amacpher Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 A 1 goal Panama win over Honduras: Canada defeats Cuba by 1 or 2 = Draw or better vs Honduras to get through Canada defeats Cuba by 3 = 1 goal LOSS or better vs Honduras to get through Canada defeats Cuba by 4 = 2 goal LOSS or better vs Honduras to get through Now if Panama wins by 2 goals: Canada defeats Cuba by 1 = Draw or better vs Honduras to get through Canada defeats Cuba by 2 = 1 goal LOSS or better vs Honduras to get through Canada defeats Cuba by 3 = 2 goal LOSS or better vs Honduras to get through That's our best case scenario right there. This isn't quite right. Canada has to make up 5 goals on Honduras for a 1 goal loss to be okay on the final matchday (meaning if Panama win by 2, Canada must beat Cuba by 3). They have to make up 7 goals on Honduras for a 2 goal loss to be okay (meaning beating Cuba by 5 even if Panama beat Honduras by 2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killgod Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 This isn't quite right. Canada has to make up 5 goals on Honduras for a 1 goal loss to be okay on the final matchday (meaning if Panama win by 2, Canada must beat Cuba by 3). They have to make up 7 goals on Honduras for a 2 goal loss to be okay (meaning beating Cuba by 5 even if Panama beat Honduras by 2) GD is the first tiebreaker, which is currently a 2 goal advantage for Honduras. What are you talking about? Panama winning by 2, reduces Honduras GD by 2...and equal to us. With our goals vs Cuba giving the advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongetti Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 We beat Cuba by 2, we're +2. Panama wins by 2, Honduras is 0. We lose by one goal to Honduras we're both +1. Then it goes to goals for, if both games were 2-0, we'd have 4 goals for, Honduras would have at least 5 goals for as its implied that they score at least one goal against Canada. Many different scenarios with goals for depending on the scores, but Honduras has the advantage here as it stands now. If we end up with equal goals for then we go to head-to-head, which Honduras would win if we lose to them. Lets just get the 3 points in Cuba. If we can pile on goals it might give us an extra luxury to afford to lose or draw, but most likely those luxuries will be won or lost based on the result of the other match. On October 13th we'll know exactly what we need to do against Honduras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 This is a team that has scored 2 goals in four games so far in this qualifying stage. Just for a quick comparison 4 years ago we were already eliminated after these opening four games, but we'd scored 4 goals. Expecting them to pile up the goals against Cuba is only going to disappoint people. The most realistic chance we have to qualify is taking 4 out of the next 6 points. That being said a win against Cuba at home will not be nearly as easy as people on here seem to think it will be. Clearly we are a much better team than Cuba, but we've had real problems putting the ball in the back of the net and if Cuba bunker down I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that we see a similar situation to the one we did at home against Puerto Rico last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amacpher Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 This is a team that has scored 2 goals in four games so far in this qualifying stage. Just for a quick comparison 4 years ago we were already eliminated after these opening four games, but we'd scored 4 goals. Expecting them to pile up the goals against Cuba is only going to disappoint people. The most realistic chance we have to qualify is taking 4 out of the next 6 points. That being said a win against Cuba at home will not be nearly as easy as people on here seem to think it will be. Clearly we are a much better team than Cuba, but we've had real problems putting the ball in the back of the net and if Cuba bunker down I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that we see a similar situation to the one we did at home against Puerto Rico last year. I agree. But the (unlikely) scenario still needs to made aware of cuz if Canada finds themselves 2-nil up after 75 minutes, it affects their strategy the rest of the game (ie. don't just sit on that 2 goal lead necessarily)**. But realistically, the aim for the next matchday is to put yourself in a situation where a draw in Honduras is enough. That is absolutely vital! ** For the algebra geeks among us, Canada should beat Cuba by 2(x)+3-p, where "x" is the number of goals/buffer they can lose to Honduras by and "p" is the number of goals Honduras (hopefully) lost to Panama by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killgod Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 This is a team that has scored 2 goals in four games so far in this qualifying stage. Just for a quick comparison 4 years ago we were already eliminated after these opening four games, but we'd scored 4 goals. Expecting them to pile up the goals against Cuba is only going to disappoint people. The most realistic chance we have to qualify is taking 4 out of the next 6 points. That being said a win against Cuba at home will not be nearly as easy as people on here seem to think it will be. Clearly we are a much better team than Cuba, but we've had real problems putting the ball in the back of the net and if Cuba bunker down I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that we see a similar situation to the one we did at home against Puerto Rico last year. Question is, will Cuba care? Being eliminated, will they care about a result? Will they want to screw over their Caribbean rivals? Will they be more concerned with running away from Cuba? Who knows. Playing a dead team is not the same as playing one who has something to fight for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canada1 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I say full out attack and go for it. Crush Cuba. Also get rid of the 4-4-2 formation and go with the 3-4-3. Playing it safe will only create doubt. We need goals so I say go for it. If you can't score you can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beh Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I feel like this Canada team would rather play for a 0-0 draw in Honduras than a 3-0 win against Cuba. That's what I'm worried about. The only permutation that matters to me at this point is that if we go out there to win the next two games we will definitely go through. If we go out there aiming for 4 points from the next two games, we're definitely out. @ Canada1: Actually, I'd go for a 3-5-2 (3-4-1-2) with Dero in front of the main midfield line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canada1 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 That's what I'm worried about. The only permutation that matters to me at this point is that if we go out there to win the next two games we will definitely go through. If we go out there aiming for 4 points from the next two games, we're definitely out. @ Canada1: Actually, I'd go for a 3-5-2 (3-4-1-2) with Dero in front of the main midfield line. I'd go with that. At this time Johnson and De Ro are in charge of free kicks and corners. No Bernier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bertuzzi44 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I wonder what kind of roster Hart will call assuming the polar opposites of all-out offence versus Cuba and going-for-the-clean-sheet defense versus Honduras!! I think we will definitely need a slightly more offensive line-up then this last round of games. Also, I might consider dropping Bernier on form alone. He was brutal among the bad in Panama... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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