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Prediction Thread: CANADA vs. St. VAG (June.15)


Bertuzzi44

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Well it's finally here! World Cup Qualifying</u>!

I couldn't really find the St. Vag roster, so I just copied their "current sqaud" from Wiki:

GK Melvin Andrews

GK Winslow McDowell

DF Troy Jeffers

DF Wesley Charles

DF Cornelius Bernard Huggins

DF Wesley John

DF Richard Hayde

DF Roy Richards

MF Kendall Velox

MF Theon Gordon

MF Darren Francis

MF Cornelius Stewart

MF Millon Prescott

MF Oscar Nero

MF Randolph Williams

FW Alwyn Guy

FW Sean Glynn

FW Shandel Samuel

FW Marlon Alex James

FW Damal Francis

FW Emerald George

My Prediction:</u>

Canada 3

[goals: Friend, Radz, Dero. Cards: Stalteri]

St. Vag 0

[goals: none. Cards: none]

Current Standings</u>

JKCanada 13

tmcmurph 7

Bertuzzi44 6

Tyson M 6

zwerg 5

David C. 4

Desigol 4

jonovision 4

jpg75 4

Natesta 4

The Ref 4

way2goeh 4

ag futbol 3

BearcatSA 3

btash 3

El Hombre 3

hottoddy7 3

Jeffery S. 3

Paddy 3

Robert 3

Toronto MB 3

leafdolfan 2

River City 2

N-A 1

ob1 1

redhat 1

Alex 0

bettermirror 0

coppercanuck 0

Dave 0

denis 0

gwallace76 0

Varsity Tyler 0

villus 0

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Canada 3:0 St. VAG

Canada</u>

Goals: DeRo (2), Friend

Cards: Brennan (Y)

St. VAG</u>

Goals:

Cards: at least 1 if not more

I would be quite disappointed if we didn't manage to notch at least a couple against a country who's name sounds more like a Louisiana jazz ensemble...

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Also I wish there was some way to either convince CTV Globemedia (who owns Sportsnet, correct?), the CSA, or some other method, to heavily advertise this match across the nation. Even if the person isn't interested in the game at all, at least make sure they know it's happening. Make this seem important.

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Prediction: St. VAG bunker down and hit us on the counter attack. Canada dictates play but can only score once as Hutch finishes a rebound from run of play. A long ball sees our defenders fail to reach their lone forward in time, and St. VAG gets on the board with a late equalizer.

Canada 1 - Hutchinson

St. VAG 1 - Francis

Canada rearms and regroups to win the second leg.

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I'm working on a theory. It is a theory that at present is wholy without statistics, only based on gut-feel. I'm thinking that every 15-20 places difference in FIFA ranking is worth 1 goal. By this statistic, (St VAG 147 - Canada 60 = 87/~17 = I'm predicting a win by a goal differential of 5. I'll say that each midfielder scores a goal and Onstad(Sutton) gets the goose-egg, 5-0.

There are a few quirks with this so-called theory. Since October of 2007 StVAG has dropped 74 places in the rankings. (73 to 147) while Canada has been stable around the 50-60 mark. Had this been October 2007, I might have predicted a 2-1 squeeker for the canooks... but by putting all faith in the mighty CocaCola rankings and my flimsy gut-feel theory, it should be a blow-out.

Furthermore, I think the theory may only work within the confederation. The goal per ranking factor would increase dramatically if it were, as an example, UEFA vs. Concacaf. This would help explain why we lose to the likes of Estonia and tie nations like Iceland.

As I said, this is a gut-feel theory. If there are any statisticians out there who are interested to start extrapolating data from the FIFA site, I'd be clearly interested to hear the results. Do highly ranked teams like US & Mex typically have goal explosions versus Caribbean islanders (ranked 120+)?

If anything, this is just fodder for the forum.

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quote:Originally posted by jamonty

There are a few quirks with this so-called theory. Since October of 2007 StVAG has dropped 74 places in the rankings. (73 to 147) while Canada has been stable around the 50-60 mark. Had this been October 2007, I might have predicted a 2-1 squeeker for the canooks... but by putting all faith in the mighty CocaCola rankings and my flimsy gut-feel theory, it should be a blow-out.

I was surprised to hear that St. VAG was ever ranked as high as 73... but it's true. Plus - get this - in March 2007 (a mere year ago) St. VAG was ranked higher than Canada! Damn... only about 14 months ago St. VAG would have been the favorites![:0] (at least in the eyes of the FIFA world rankings)

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St. VAG haven't won a match in something like 7 or 8 tries. And they don't exactly play heavyweights.

2-nizzle for this round (a few more goals in MTL), Friend and De Ro with the goals. De Guzman will get a yellow card for Canada.

Or, more legibly

Canada 2 [Friend, DeRo] [cards:De Guzman]

St. VAG 0

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