CPL Playoffs 2023

[Unnamed Trialist]

Starting a new thread on the playoffs, which begin next week, with the final on October 28-29. 

Please correct any errors here. I have based scenarios on Competition Rules regarding tiebreaks, which goes points, total wins, goal difference, total goals, away goals difference...

The playoff format was announced here, with a bracket:

https://canpl.ca/article/cpl-playoff-format-explained-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-5-team-bracket

There are 4 matchdays/fixtures. 

Matchday One has fourth host 5th. Either Halifax, Pacific or Forge will host either York or At Ottawa. I think this fixture will be adanced to midweek, as it says it will be played 3 days before the next: perhaps the 11th?

Matchday Two will be reserved for the weekend of October 14-15.

The winner of the 4th-5th play-in goes away to 3rd place, first and second play each other. The winner of this latter goes to the final.

Matchday Three has the winner of the 3rd vs 4th/5th away to the loser of 1st vs 2nd. It's the only game played on October 21/22.

Matchday Four, the final, the survivors face off. Interestingly, if Cavalry do not win their Matchday Two they still could make the final, but would not host, as the winner of 1st-2nd is the host.

Playoff Scenario

Calvary is 1st and host their playoff match. 

2nd place. Either Forge, Pacific or HFX could take 2nd.

Forge takes it with a win. If Forge draw and Pacific do not win; Forge takes it. If Forge draw and Pacific win, Pacific takes it on total wins, 12 to 11. If Forge lose and Pacific win the latter take it on points, 43 to 42.

But HFX could sneak into 2nd, interesting scenario (please correct if I blew this).

If Forge lose and Pacific draw or lose, HFX could tie Forge on points with a win. That win would put them both at 42 points and both at 11 wins, and it'd go to goal difference. Currently Forge is +8 and HFX is +6, but Forge losing automatically puts them at +7 or worse, and HFX winning automatically puts them at +7 or better. HFX would take 2nd place if they won by more than Forge lost or Forge lost by more than HFX won.

A tie on goal difference is thus a probable scenario to consider, sending us to total goals: Forge is at 39 and HFX at 38. While HFX will have scored to get their win, if they only score one, Forge could perfectly well lose 1-2 or 2-3 and take the 2nd spot that way, on total goals. HFX's best scenario is to win scoring two goals more than Forge does losing no matter what, so that goal difference or total goals gives them the edge. The next tiebreaker is away goal difference, where Forge is +4 and HFX -3, unsurmountable.

As HFX plays before Forge, the latter will know exactly what they need to do to improve their playoff seeding. 

3rd and 4th place. Any of Forge, Pacific or HFX could end third or fourth. Depending who the previous Forge-HFX comparison favoured, Pacific could take 2nd and the tiebreaking winner of the other two would be third, the loser fourth. The third would host the winner of 4th-5th on Matchday Two.

5th place. If York United win they take it. If At Ottawa win and York United lose, Atléti takes it. If York United draw and AtO win, they tie on points and total wins at 10. This sends us to the second tie-breaker, goal difference, where York is now -10 and Atléti +3. This scenario means that while Atlético are in a must win situation, really York are as well.

Curiosities.

1-The only decision-day fixture that could immediately repeat in the playoffs is Cavalry-Pacific. If the latter take 2nd with a win and Forge drawing or worse, Cavalry-Pacific repeats on October 14-15 with no games for either in between. Then, if Pacific lose, go through the repechage and win at home on Oct 21, they'd go back to Spruce Meadows for their third meeting at the same stadium this month in the final. 

2-Forge AtO could also repeat, but not immediately (Edit).

3-If Cavalry win the CPL final, the 2nd place team in the league  qualifies for Concacaf Champions League (edit).

Edited October 3, 2023 by Unnamed Trialist

[narduch]

According to this tweet October 11 is set for the 4 v 5 game. Also October 14 will be the date for the 1v2 and 3 v 4or5 games.

Should be noted that this bracket is hypothetical based on thr current standings.

 

[Kent]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

2-Forge AtO could also repeat, but not immediately. If Forge come third and Ottawa fourth, AtO plays the fifth place team at home midweek, and then would return to Hamilton if they won on Oct 14-15.

Atletico Ottawa can't finish fourth, as you previously outlined. They are 5th or 6th. But of course, this fixture could still eventually repeat if Ottawa finishes 5th and advances far enough to play Forge, wherever they end up. 

[Kingston]

I'm really looking forward to seeing the crowd for the Halifax home game.  It should be loud!

[chalms04]

13 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

3-If Cavalry make the CPL final, I believe it is the other finalist that qualifies for Concacaf Champions League, win or lose. Is this right?

If the Cavs win the final, then the 2nd place regular season finisher would get the spot.

https://canpl.ca/article/concacaf-announces-qualification-criteria-for-expanded-champions-league-starting-in-2024

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/how-clubs-can-qualify-for-the-expanded-2024-concacaf-champions-league

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, chalms04 said:

If the Cavs win the final, then the 2nd place regular season finisher would get the spot.

https://canpl.ca/article/concacaf-announces-qualification-criteria-for-expanded-champions-league-starting-in-2024

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/how-clubs-can-qualify-for-the-expanded-2024-concacaf-champions-league

Will fix it, thanks.

[Unnamed Trialist]

The order of play could affect the playoff race. Personally I prefer a final matchday with synchronized matches, it's more fair and far more exciting.

Wanderers playing first won't affect anything except Forge and Pacific will know what they have to do to beat them for 2nd or 3rd. 

A York win away to Vancouver will end At Ottawa's season. A draw or loss gives them hope.

The final two matches go at the same time, so what's most relevant is Ottawa playing for something or not .

[narduch]

35 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

 

The final two matches go at the same time, so what's most relevant is Ottawa playing for something or not .

They literally just changed that this morning. 

I agree with the overall sentiment though.

All 4 matches should have been at the same day and time

[Unnamed Trialist]

46 minutes ago, narduch said:

They literally just changed that this morning. 

I agree with the overall sentiment though.

All 4 matches should have been at the same day and time

Yeah I was sure they were all different times when I looked yesterday. 

I realize for One Soccer they may think it's better to have four games, but hey, how about an exciting broadcast of two games at once?

Split screens dudes, you can do it!

[narduch]

Just now, Unnamed Trialist said:

Yeah I was sure they were all different times when I looked yesterday. 

I realize for One Soccer they may think it's better to have four games, but hey, how about an exciting broadcast of two games at once?

Split screens dudes, you can do it!

They should do the old school Serie A type broadcast where you focus on 1 game and then sound a horn if a goal is scored in the other matches and them show the high light.

[Unnamed Trialist]

21 minutes ago, narduch said:

They should do the old school Serie A type broadcast where you focus on 1 game and then sound a horn if a goal is scored in the other matches and them show the high light.

Think the subscribers will get to see what they want. 

You maybe need to add one handheld each to look at bench reactions. And you need live graphics. I'm not sure OS have it in them.

[chalms04]

There was a multi-camera feed for playoffs last year, but I don't recall how it worked.  https://onesoccer.ca/a/telus-sports-app-to-air-2022-cpl-playoffs-for-free-ios-android-canadian-premier-league

[Kent]

10 hours ago, chalms04 said:

If the Cavs win the final, then the 2nd place regular season finisher would get the spot.

https://canpl.ca/article/concacaf-announces-qualification-criteria-for-expanded-champions-league-starting-in-2024

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/how-clubs-can-qualify-for-the-expanded-2024-concacaf-champions-league

If I'm not mistaken, I think that means whoever finishes 2nd under this format (not unique to this particular season) has a 75% chance of getting the 2nd CONCACAF Champions Cup spot (assuming a CPL team didn't win the Voyageurs Cup).

At first I thought it was 66%, because they are in the final 3 and they get the spot if they win it all, or if the 1st place team wins it all. But then I realized the third team in the final 3 has a 50% chance of winning the game against the 1v2 loser, and if they win that game they have a 50% chance of winning the final. 50% times 50% is 25%, making 75% chance 1 or 2 wins the playoffs. Then to double check I wrote out all the possible scenarios (8 different combinations of results) and 75% of them resulted in 1 or 2 winning it all. 

[RJB]

Oh playoffs. Nothing does more to invalidate a season like they do!  I get it, it gives them a 'cup final' to promote, but what was the point of the 28 games if the 'champion' can be three games under .500 (York, potentially)?

It is part of the culture here and is felt to be necessary, but the joy of the upset and the playoff failure undermines us celebrating a good team.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I think Cavalry should be lauded much more for their fabulous season.  But they'll lose at some point, maybe even on penalties, and they will disappear into history. The worst possible thing for the credibility of the league is if York are 'champions.'

[Kingston]

3 hours ago, RJB said:

I'm probably in the minority here, but I think Cavalry should be lauded much more for their fabulous season.  But they'll lose at some point, maybe even on penalties, and they will disappear into history. The worst possible thing for the credibility of the league is if York are 'champions.'

I'm  happy to celebrate both - the long grind winners of the regular season and the all out intensity winners of the playoffs.

And, with a bit of luck, York won't even make the playoffs so you'll have nothing to worry about.

[Aird25]

If we did Apertura and Clausura Pacific would have won trophies the last two seasons. I say we retroactively award those 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

4 hours ago, RJB said:

...The worst possible thing for the credibility of the league is if York are 'champions.'

With the other owners then having to pay for their CONCACAF Champions Cup participation rather than immediately gutting the roster to cut costs after the season ends? I'm pleasantly surprised they've been able to stay in contention this long.

[Kent]

I hope York wins it all for 2 reasons. First, I am a York fan. Second, because the league wouldn't fold the playoff champions and one of their 2 CCC entrants... right?

[Kent]

14 hours ago, RJB said:

Oh playoffs. Nothing does more to invalidate a season like they do!  I get it, it gives them a 'cup final' to promote, but what was the point of the 28 games if the 'champion' can be three games under .500 (York, potentially)?

It is part of the culture here and is felt to be necessary, but the joy of the upset and the playoff failure undermines us celebrating a good team.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I think Cavalry should be lauded much more for their fabulous season.  But they'll lose at some point, maybe even on penalties, and they will disappear into history. The worst possible thing for the credibility of the league is if York are 'champions.'

Nothing invalid about Cavalry's accomplishment this season. Just like a domestic Cup competition doesn't invalidate a league season in European leagues.

Especially with the playoff system this season, the playoffs are more heavily skewed towards the top performing regular season teams more than any season of any sport I have ever seen. I am saying this as a positive in case it's ambiguous. I like the playoff format, at least before it has started. As someone pointed out earlier (not sure if it was this thread or another), every game this weekend matters. If it was just about crowning a champion and we are done, none of the games this weekend or last weekend would matter. I guess if we still had 2 CCC spots to give out, there would be a bit that mattered still for determining 2nd place.

[RJB]

It's about MLS, but Ibrahimovic is correct:

 

"I think the system is s---," he told reporters in Los Angeles. "How can you learn mentality if you only have to reach the playoffs?

 

"You just need to win the playoffs, and that's it. The results in each game are important, but here, if you come in seventh place, you make the playoffs and win, you are champion.

 

"For me, the mentality is every day, training the way you train is the way you play a game, and with the MLS system, how do you create that mentality to be on your toes 24 hours? It's very difficult."

(https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/37575275/ibrahimovic-blasts-mls-playoffs-system%3fplatform=amp)

[RJB]

8 hours ago, Kent said:

Nothing invalid about Cavalry's accomplishment this season. Just like a domestic Cup competition doesn't invalidate a league season in European leagues.

Especially with the playoff system this season, the playoffs are more heavily skewed towards the top performing regular season teams more than any season of any sport I have ever seen. I am saying this as a positive in case it's ambiguous. I like the playoff format, at least before it has started. As someone pointed out earlier (not sure if it was this thread or another), every game this weekend matters. If it was just about crowning a champion and we are done, none of the games this weekend or last weekend would matter. I guess if we still had 2 CCC spots to give out, there would be a bit that mattered still for determining 2nd place.

One team is only regular season champions, whereas the other is champion. I am aware of the skewed format, and agree that every game matters this weekend.  I just feel every game should matter all season. 

[Kingston]

26 minutes ago, RJB said:

One team is only regular season champions, whereas the other is champion. I am aware of the skewed format, and agree that every game matters this weekend.  I just feel every game should matter all season. 

Really, whether you are pursing the regular season championship or the playoffs, every game does matter all season.

The only exception is the possibility of lame duck games once things have been resolved.  That could happen under either scenario, however, as the regular season could be clinched early (like this year) or the playoff seeding could be locked in early (didn't happen this year).  There isn't a best approach for making every game count.  In fact, having both like we do maximizes the chances of meaningful games.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, RJB said:

One team is only regular season champions, whereas the other is champion. I am aware of the skewed format, and agree that every game matters this weekend.  I just feel every game should matter all season. 

Big leagues like EPL are increasingly becoming about getting top 4 to get in Champions League.

You think every game should matter, but if there were no playoffs, the Cavalry vs Pacific game this weekend wouldn't matter, because Cavalry have already locked up the championship. But as it stands, Pacific still has rewards to play for in the form of a higher seeding which could make a huge difference in their chances in the playoffs. I don't see how the existence of playoffs, when there is also a trophy and Champions Cup spot for the regular season champs, make regular season games unimportant. If it weren't for playoffs, I would care very little about York United's game against Vancouver tonight. Because who thinks years back to a season and thinks "we finished 6th place that season, which is so embarrassing, if only we could have finished 5th that year."

[jonovision]

On 10/5/2023 at 8:32 AM, RJB said:

Oh playoffs. Nothing does more to invalidate a season like they do!  I get it, it gives them a 'cup final' to promote, but what was the point of the 28 games if the 'champion' can be three games under .500 (York, potentially)?

It is part of the culture here and is felt to be necessary, but the joy of the upset and the playoff failure undermines us celebrating a good team.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I think Cavalry should be lauded much more for their fabulous season.  But they'll lose at some point, maybe even on penalties, and they will disappear into history. The worst possible thing for the credibility of the league is if York are 'champions.'

In a league setup without relegation, I think you need a playoff. Otherwise you'd have teams with realistically nothing to play for by late July.

With the current playoff format, York would have to win 4 straight matches on the road to become champions, which is not quite the same as being the most consistent over 28 games, but still a major accomplishment worthy of being celebrated. I do think this format works better if the league has 10 teams instead of 8. 

I doubt you'll be convinced of any of this, as honouring the table-topper after a balanced schedule is also a very reasonable position.

I will say that any further expansion will make a true balanced schedule impossible until we get to 16 teams, without shrinking the number of games in a season per team, or having an unequal number of home and away games. Assuming, like I do, that having an odd number of teams in the league is a situation best avoided for scheduling/travel reasons.

Edited October 6, 2023 by jonovision

[Aird25]

1 minute ago, jonovision said:

In a league setup without relegation, I think you need a playoff. Otherwise you'd have teams with realistically nothing to play for by late July.

With the current playoff format, York would have to win 4 straight matches on the road to become champions, which is not quite the same as being the most consistent over 28 games, but still a major accomplishment worthy of being celebrated. I think it works better if the league has 10 teams instead of 8. 

I doubt you'll be convinced of any of this, as honouring the table-topper after a balanced schedule is also a very reasonable position.

I will say that any further expansion will make a true balanced schedule impossible until we get to 16 teams without shrinking the number of games in a season per team, or having an unequal number of home and away games, assuming, like I do, that having an odd number of teams in the league is a situation best avoided.

Agreed, it would be silly to drop playoffs without introducing relegation. That doesn't mean we can't value the regular season champion more though. I've always given Cavalry credit for being the team with the best record overall