Duane Rollins Fantasy League

[matty]

Fuck you Expat FC

[Greatest Cockney Rip Off]

What skill relates to conceding penalties? I've given up there in the past two matches. 

[Rintaran]

Well, I made it to the round of 16. Sadly, it looks like that's as far as I'll be heading as I'm now paired with Montreal Impact. The match against Espanola looks like a lot less shooting from both sides than in previous matches. Given how minimal my strategy & skill changes have been to this point, that's quite a change.

Oh well, need to look forward to the 3rd league match. With Porcupine Gold Rush FC having their 1st home match this weekend, Scarborough FC is going down!

[Kent]

It's a shame the North York FC vs York Lions game wasn't televised. Must have been an exciting game!

[shermanator]

GIANT KILLERS!

[FreeAgent]

2 hours ago, Rintaran said:

Well, I made it to the round of 16. Sadly, it looks like that's as far as I'll be heading as I'm now paired with Montreal Impact. The match against Espanola looks like a lot less shooting from both sides than in previous matches. Given how minimal my strategy & skill changes have been to this point, that's quite a change.

Oh well, need to look forward to the 3rd league match. With Porcupine Gold Rush FC having their 1st home match this weekend, Scarborough FC is going down!

Bring it!

Also join the club for getting drawn with L'Impact.

[Gopherbashi]

12 hours ago, Greatest Cockney Rip Off said:

What skill relates to conceding penalties? I've given up there in the past two matches. 

Yeah, I need to do some research into how frequently penalties are given in reality - it seems we're a bit higher than we should be right now (on the flip side, it seems like there's a lot more missed penalties than there should be).  I'll probably end up bringing the total number of foul calls down, or introduce a modifier for the penalty area to simulate refs being hesitant to call penalties.

Foul calls are currently determined by aggression and diving strategy, the shield and tackle stats, a currently-unused ref harshness factor, and a ref error factor - which increases with game duration (refs get tired) and is altered by an (also unused) ref skill factor (this ref error factor is what goes into the "questionable" and "missed call" flags you see sometimes).  Penalty calls are simply a product of the foul call and the field position.

Bookings are drawn from aggression and diving strategy, (unused) ref harshness, and a ref disciplinary factor: a value that ticks up over the course of the match based on fouls called & cards given - in essence, the ref's desire to "clamp down" on the game depending on how rough it's been up until then.  This won't affect whether a foul is given, but will affect your chance of getting a card based on that foul

Your aggression strategy will also affect things like pass/run distance and pass/run completion, so I wouldn't necessarily change it just to avoid penalties.  There's a balance somewhere in there.

 

EDIT: I've been running some simulations to see if I can get a DRFL team to beat an MLS team (hint: it's possible), and I came across this gut-clenching play right at the end of two minutes of injury time, with my team up 3-2:

92:05+ - MLS 15 yard through pass FOULED (12 yards from opposing goal line, 14 yards from far touch line) PENALTY GIVEN 

It's ok though, because Giovinco flubbed it

92:55+ - MLS PENALTY: 12 yard SHOT OFF TARGET (out past opposing goal line)

[Gopherbashi]

5 hours ago, Kent said:

It's a shame the North York FC vs York Lions game wasn't televised. Must have been an exciting game!

I took a cursory glance at their setup after the first league game and didn't notice anything massively out of the ordinary, though they deserve another more in-depth look at some point.

[Gopherbashi]

6 hours ago, Rintaran said:

Well, I made it to the round of 16. Sadly, it looks like that's as far as I'll be heading as I'm now paired with Montreal Impact. The match against Espanola looks like a lot less shooting from both sides than in previous matches. Given how minimal my strategy & skill changes have been to this point, that's quite a change.

Oh well, need to look forward to the 3rd league match. With Porcupine Gold Rush FC having their 1st home match this weekend, Scarborough FC is going down!

Interesting because some of the simulations I'm running have a lot more shots.  I may need to limit the impact of the shot strategy again, but I don't want to go too far otherwise it won't mean a lot.

[Gopherbashi]

and, as promised, the averages:

POWER: 8.0
AIM: 9.4
HEADER: 6.4
OFF11: 6.3

PASS: 9.0
DRIBBLE: 7.3
LEAD: 7.4
SHIELD: 6.5

MARK: 7.8
CHALLENGE: 7.3
INT: 8.1
TACKLE: 7.1

BLOCK: 7.6
SAVE: 8.5
CLEAR: 7.4
DEF11: 6.6

[TRM]

22 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

Voyageurs' Cup - Round of 32
Winnipeg Wanderers @ Hobema Hosers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

 

My boys are on a roll I say. 2 wins in the V's Cup and 1 in league play since the new coach took over. Hosers all the way!!!

[Gopherbashi]

Matchday Three (May 6, 2017)
Current Standings (spoilers!)

Canada West
Red Star Red Deer @ Nanaimo Barre FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Inter Regina @ Hobema Hosers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Trail & Castlegar FC @ Saskatoon Athletic FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Ontario West
Binbrook Buccaneers @ Breithaupt Park AC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Farmers FC @ Hamilton Steelers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
SC Chatham Corn Stars @ London Knights FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Ontario East
Scarborough FC @ Porcupine Gold Rush FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
North York FC @ Beaverton FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
York Lions FC @ Racing Club de Espanola (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Canada East
Borussia MonctonGladbach @ Winnipeg Wanderers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
AS Sherbrooke Estrie @ Halifax Wanderers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Hans Island @ Summerside Argus FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Lucky tied teams are Nanaimo and Chatham.  Lucky loser is Sherbrooke (who got seriously screwed over by the random number generator).

[Gopherbashi]

Made a few changes this week:

- Limited the effects of offensive pressure at the extremes
- Changed the shot preference modifier to be less extreme
- Decreased penalty call chance (should average out to about one every three matches)
- Increased penalty on-target chance (missing is about half as likely as before)
- Added percentages to pass/run completion

[Rintaran]

On 5/4/2017 at 3:27 PM, Gopherbashi said:

Interesting because some of the simulations I'm running have a lot more shots.  I may need to limit the impact of the shot strategy again, but I don't want to go too far otherwise it won't mean a lot.

Just read the results of the recent round. I had made a bunch of changes for this round, and my shooting numbers skyrocketed. Must have just been the strategy I was using that was keeping it so low (from 2 shot up to 18, wowza).

On 5/4/2017 at 10:37 AM, FreeAgent said:

Bring it!

Also join the club for getting drawn with L'Impact.

Consider it brought. Now, if I can bring that same kind of result to the match against L'Impact, twice, I'll be laughing all the way to the finals.

[FreeAgent]

15 minutes ago, Rintaran said:

Just read the results of the recent round. I had made a bunch of changes for this round, and my shooting numbers skyrocketed. Must have just been the strategy I was using that was keeping it so low (from 2 shot up to 18, wowza).

Consider it brought. Now, if I can bring that same kind of result to the match against L'Impact, twice, I'll be laughing all the way to the finals.

Bruuutal.

[Rintaran]

3 minutes ago, FreeAgent said:

Bruuutal.

You can blame the weather if you like. It was down around 1 C with some scattered flurries in Timmins yesterday evening (fairly typical for this time of year). I'm sure a bunch of Scarborough players would have trouble with that.

[rob.notenboom]

51 minutes ago, Rintaran said:

Just read the results of the recent round. I had made a bunch of changes for this round, and my shooting numbers skyrocketed. Must have just been the strategy I was using that was keeping it so low (from 2 shot up to 18, wowza).

 

I never seem to shoot very much, so I guess I'd better tinker. Results had been good so far, but now I've suffered my first loss.

[ThiKu]

draw vs. red deer - after a 4-2 loss to Whitecaps and a league loss to Hosers it's nice to get another result. stats suggest I maybe had a shout at winning that one!

[Gopherbashi]

Voyageurs Cup - Round of 16 (First Leg)
Tournament Bracket (spoilers!)

Vancouver Whitecaps @ AFC Medicine Hat Mad Hatters FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
North York FC @ Inter Regina (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Toronto FC @ Hamilton Steelers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Red Star Red Deer @ Beaverton FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Montreal Impact @ Porcupine Gold Rush FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Summerside Argus FC @ Farmers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Expat FC @ Windsor Rum Runners (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Borussia MonctonGladbach @ Hobema Hosers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

[Gopherbashi]

I ran one of those pairings four additional times, and the results were 3-2, 4-1, 3-3, and 5-3.  Certainly high-scoring, but apart from that 5-3, certainly not as jaw-dropping.

The random number god blessed that match with goals.

[Rintaran]

I... won?  That's kinda crazy, but anything can happen for a single match. Kinda surprised to see Porcupine Gold Rush FC take the first leg against Montreal Impact, but I'll take it!

Do we get 1 skill point for winning the leg in the V-Cup, or only for advancement? Now that we're on 2-leg aggregates, I guess we need to clear that up.

[Gopherbashi]

19 hours ago, Rintaran said:

I... won?  That's kinda crazy, but anything can happen for a single match. Kinda surprised to see Porcupine Gold Rush FC take the first leg against Montreal Impact, but I'll take it!

Do we get 1 skill point for winning the leg in the V-Cup, or only for advancement? Now that we're on 2-leg aggregates, I guess we need to clear that up.

Only for advancement.

[Rintaran]

17 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

Only for advancement.

I thought that was the case, just wanted to be 100% sure.

Now, to get my team ready to take on D.R. Legion. I think that's going to be a good match, and a win there will increase my odds of being a giant-killer against Montreal Impact.

[Gopherbashi]

Matchday Four (May 13, 2017)
Standings (spoilers!)

Canada West
Red Star Red Deer @ Inter Regina (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
AFC Medicine Hat Mad Hatters FC @ Nanaimo Barre FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Trail & Castlegar FC @ Hobema Hosers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Ontario West
Binbrook Buccaneers @ Farmers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Windsor Rum Runners @ Breithaupt Park AC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
SC Chatham Corn Stars @ Hamilton Steelers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Ontario East
Scarborough FC @ North York FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
D.R. Legion FC @ Porcupine Gold Rush FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
York Lions FC @ Beaverton FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Canada East
Borussia MonctonGladbach @ AS Sherbrooke Estrie (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
EXPAT FC @ Winnipeg Wanderers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Hans Island @ Halifax Wanderers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Lucky tied team is Inter Regina.  Lucky loser is D.R. Legion FC

[Gopherbashi]

A number of changes this week:

- Added injuries & substitutions
- Slightly altered the likelihood of a foul or card based on pressure
- Altered pass/run success based on cards
- Slightly reduced penalty accuracy
- Added the prepared-for formation in the match report