Jump to content

Duane Rollins Fantasy League


Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

Matchday Four (May 13, 2017)
Trail & Castlegar FC @ Hobema Hosers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Lucky tied team is Inter Regina.  Lucky loser is D.R. Legion FC

Damn. Lost 1-0. Guess we have to fire the coach now. Maybe I'll give him one more chance in the V's Cup as he is ahead in the round of 16. Thin ice baby, thin ice!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 427
  • Created
  • Last Reply
8 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

Matchday Four (May 13, 2017)
Standings (spoilers!)


D.R. Legion FC @ Porcupine Gold Rush FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Holy crap. How the? What the? I don't even know what to ask. a 9-1 blow-out is pretty crazy. I'm happy they managed to get the lucky loser bonus after a beating like that. Ouch.

On the bright side, this might just give me the edge I need to get past Montreal Impact in the V-Cup. Fingers crossed!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Rintaran said:

Holy crap. How the? What the? I don't even know what to ask. a 9-1 blow-out is pretty crazy. I'm happy they managed to get the lucky loser bonus after a beating like that. Ouch.

On the bright side, this might just give me the edge I need to get past Montreal Impact in the V-Cup. Fingers crossed!

Yeah, I'm not exactly happy with that match.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Four weeks in, here's an update on the odds of being promoted: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/You/DuaneRollinsFantasyLeagueOpen.html

1. An impressive eight teams have yet to take an L.
2. Summerside Argus FC is the only team with three straight wins.
3. At the bottom of the table, four teams are yet to pick up a single point.
4. At this point, any team could still turn it around and finish the season as first seed.
5. If the season ended today, the following teams would be promoted to the DRFL1: Farmers FC, Halifax, Summerside, Porcupine Goldrush, Beaverton, SC Chatham, York Lions FC, and Windsor Rum Runners

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Voyageurs Cup - Round of 16 (Second Leg)
Tournament Bracket (spoilers!)

AFC Medicine Hat @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Inter Regina @ North York FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Hamilton Steelers @ Toronto FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Beaverton FC @ Red Star Red Deer (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Porcupine Gold Rush @ Montreal Impact (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Farmers FC @ Summerside Argus FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Windsor Rum Runners @ Expat FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Hobema Hosers @ Borussa MonctonGladbach (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

Voyageurs Cup - Round of 16 (Second Leg)
Hobema Hosers @ Borussa MonctonGladbach (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Alright. On to the round of 8 for my Hosers. I guess we won't fire our coach for the one loss he had in league play. Nice comeback 4-3 win to match the 3-1 win last time out. Now what to do with my extra skill point? Hmmmm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Matchday Five (May 20, 2017)
Current Standings (spoilers!)

Canada West
Red Star Red Deer @ Trail & Castlegar FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
AFC Medicine Hat Mad Hatters FC @ Inter Regina (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Saskatoon Athletic FC @ Hobema Hosers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Ontario West
Binbrook Buccaneers @ SC Chatham Corn Stars (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Windsor Rum Runners @ Farmers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
London Knights FC @ Hamilton Steelers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Ontario East
Scarborough FC @ York Lions FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
D.R. Legion FC @ North York FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Racing Club de Espanola @ Beaverton FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Canada East
Borussia MonctonGladbach @ Hans Island (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
EXPAT FC @ AS Sherbrooke Estrie (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Summerside Argus FC @ Halifax Wanderers FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

 

Lucky tied teams are Regina, Beaverton, and Moncton.  Lucky loser is Expat FC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Changes made this week:

Increased chance of shot-blocking with higher defensive pressure
Reduced offensive movement when a team is leading by more than 3 goals
Altered shot simulation to include relative (vs absolute) modifiers
Slightly increased odds of having a shot go on-target

We ran into problems with the previous shot simulation as modifiers would stack on top of each other, which seemed to be causing a lot of our high-scoring games.  I've changed the calculations to be more relative and take into account the current chance of success.

We had one match this week with a 7-1 score; I re-ran it five times and got scores of 3-0, 6-2, 5-2, 6-2, and 4-3.  Still high, but not totally out of the realm of possibility.  I'll give it a glance this week to see if there's anything that sticks out.

For fun, I decided to see what this would've done to the second leg of the Impact v Porcupine V Cup match.  (The "real" result was 4-2 for Porc).  Over 10 simulations, IMFC won 6 by aggregate, Porc won 1 (a 4-1 scoreline), and IMFC won 3 by away goals (a 1-1 score in all three matches).  The original result will stand, but I wouldn't underestimate the MLS teams still remaining (or overestimate Porc).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/21/2017 at 10:30 AM, Gopherbashi said:

Changes made this week:

Increased chance of shot-blocking with higher defensive pressure
Reduced offensive movement when a team is leading by more than 3 goals
Altered shot simulation to include relative (vs absolute) modifiers
Slightly increased odds of having a shot go on-target

We ran into problems with the previous shot simulation as modifiers would stack on top of each other, which seemed to be causing a lot of our high-scoring games.  I've changed the calculations to be more relative and take into account the current chance of success.

We had one match this week with a 7-1 score; I re-ran it five times and got scores of 3-0, 6-2, 5-2, 6-2, and 4-3.  Still high, but not totally out of the realm of possibility.  I'll give it a glance this week to see if there's anything that sticks out.

For fun, I decided to see what this would've done to the second leg of the Impact v Porcupine V Cup match.  (The "real" result was 4-2 for Porc).  Over 10 simulations, IMFC won 6 by aggregate, Porc won 1 (a 4-1 scoreline), and IMFC won 3 by away goals (a 1-1 score in all three matches).  The original result will stand, but I wouldn't underestimate the MLS teams still remaining (or overestimate Porc).

Thank you for rerunning the POR v MON V-Cup matches. I was really wondering what happened in that match that gave such an odd victory. This'll probably bring some more restraint to the goal scoring, which is good. I'm looking forward to the next round.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Voyageurs Cup - Quarterfinals (First Leg)
Tournament Bracket (spoilers!)

Vancouver Whitecaps @ Inter Regina (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Toronto FC @ Beaverton FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Porcupine Gold Rush FC @ Summerside Argus FC (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)
Expat FC @ Hobema Hosers (Highlights - 1st Half - 2nd Half)

Second leg goes next Tuesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now that looked like a challenging series of matches. Just barely squeaked out the lead for Porcupine in that 1st leg. On the bright side, we were on the road, so hopefully with the 2nd leg at home we can squeak out a win, or at least keep Summerside from going too many away goals.

I like how only 1 match was a "blow-out", and even then, not by a huge margin. Far more competitive as we work through these QFs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2017-05-23 at 6:46 PM, Gopherbashi said:

Voyageurs Cup - Quarterfinals (First Leg)
Expat FC @ Hobema Hosers

Beat Expat 3 to nil and most importantly didn't give up any away goal. Onward!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...