2024 CONCACAF Champions Cup

[Kent]

24 minutes ago, narduch said:

Looks like Inter Miami is MLS' last hope in CCC this year.

I wouldn't count out Columbus just yet. I know it was a home game, but they seemed to dominate possession in the parts of the game I watched. They could get an upset result in Mexico.

New England is absolutely done after losing 4-0 to America though.

[Mihairokov]

Columbus can win away or draw with more away goals. NERV are totally done.

[Kent]

Monterrey beat a Messi-less Miami 2-1 in Florida tonight. Early on it's 1-0 Pachuca against Herediano in Costa Rica. So at this moment, it's advantage Mexico in all 4 match ups, with all of their games being held away. The closest so far is the 1-1 tie between Columbus and Tigres. Still time for Herediano, but not sure if they can muster up any magic. Will take a bit of a miracle.

[Watchmen]

22 hours ago, Kent said:

Monterrey beat a Messi-less Miami 2-1 in Florida tonight. Early on it's 1-0 Pachuca against Herediano in Costa Rica. So at this moment, it's advantage Mexico in all 4 match ups, with all of their games being held away. The closest so far is the 1-1 tie between Columbus and Tigres. Still time for Herediano, but not sure if they can muster up any magic. Will take a bit of a miracle.

Herediano did not keep it close. 

[RJB]

Is MLS making no progress, or is the Mexican league progressing at the same rate?

Also, where can I find MLS vs LigaMX statistics?

[phil03]

26 minutes ago, RJB said:

Is MLS making no progress, or is the Mexican league progressing at the same rate?

Also, where can I find MLS vs LigaMX statistics?

I'd say that the concacaf champions cup is probably not the best metric to compare MLS and LigaMx, as the later does not have nearly as much mechanisms in place as the former to ensure intra-league parity, resulting in their top clubs (aka the ones most likely to end up in concacaf) having a bigger gap with their league's baseline then their MLS equivalents.

If anything I'd argue that the sheer fact that LigaMx isn't assumed to win every year like they used to, despite this advantage, speaks volume to how the balance of strenght between the two leagues has evolved...

[Kingston]

9 hours ago, phil03 said:

I'd say that the concacaf champions cup is probably not the best metric to compare MLS and LigaMx, as the later does not have nearly as much mechanisms in place as the former to ensure intra-league parity, resulting in their top clubs (aka the ones most likely to end up in concacaf) having a bigger gap with their league's baseline then their MLS equivalents.

If anything I'd argue that the sheer fact that LigaMx isn't assumed to win every year like they used to, despite this advantage, speaks volume to how the balance of strenght between the two leagues has evolved...

In comparing the two leagues it is useful to have both the CCC and the Leagues Cup.

In the CCC, the Mexican teams still dominate overall although, as you point out, they are no longer assumed to win.

In the LC, MLS won nine of fourteen groups.

This suggests that the top LMX teams are still better than the top MLS teams but the leagues overall are basically even.  (So the intra-league parity issue you reference.)

[RJB]

I don't think it matters how the bottom half of the table does.  EPL teams are better than Serie A teams because their top teams win.  If the thirteenth best Serie A team was better than the thirteenth best EPL team, that wouldn't matter.

MLS has a lot of work to do.  

Also, I don't think that Mexican teams are no longer assumed to win.  To me they still are, despite the Sounders winning once.

Edited April 5 by RJB

[Kent]

9 hours ago, phil03 said:

I'd say that the concacaf champions cup is probably not the best metric to compare MLS and LigaMx, as the later does not have nearly as much mechanisms in place as the former to ensure intra-league parity, resulting in their top clubs (aka the ones most likely to end up in concacaf) having a bigger gap with their league's baseline then their MLS equivalents.

If anything I'd argue that the sheer fact that LigaMx isn't assumed to win every year like they used to, despite this advantage, speaks volume to how the balance of strenght between the two leagues has evolved...

The results have been pretty consistent for a decade or more. Yes, MLS won 1 title in 2022, but there were teams that came close well before that (LAFC in 2020, TFC in 2018, Montreal in 2015, RSL in 2011). There is a decent chance MLS has no semi finalists this year for the first time since 2016. There will be little blips like this year or Seattle winning in 2022. I think the gap has shrunk a bit over the last 10 years or so, but not as much as people like to think. People talk about it as if year after year the gap gets noticeably smaller, but that isn't the case.

The gap would probably disappear and reverse itself pretty quickly if MLS got rid of the salary cap and the DP rule etc. Even if teams kept spending the way they are currently spending, but just smarter about it. I say that but to be honest I don't know what the player budgets are like on Liga MX teams.

[RJB]

15 minutes ago, RJB said:

 

 

Edited April 5 by RJB

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

In comparing the two leagues it is useful to have both the CCC and the Leagues Cup.

In the CCC, the Mexican teams still dominate overall although, as you point out, they are no longer assumed to win.

In the LC, MLS won nine of fourteen groups.

This suggests that the top LMX teams are still better than the top MLS teams but the leagues overall are basically even.  (So the intra-league parity issue you reference.)

I would agree with this if the Leagues Cup wasn't hosted by MLS teams by rule. Also the fact that there are 18 Liga MX teams and 29 MLS teams will skew results as well (13 groups had 1 Liga MX team playing away to 2 MLS teams, and only 2 groups had 2 Liga MX teams against 1 MLS team).

I have thought in the past about these debates about league vs league and thought it would be interesting to have a series where 1st from League A plays 1st from League B, all the way down to the bottom of the leagues (assuming the leagues in question have the same number of teams). Have it be home and away and then you could start getting some top to bottom data points.

[narduch]

Leagues Cup results should have a massive asterisk 

[Kingston]

53 minutes ago, Kent said:

I would agree with this if the Leagues Cup wasn't hosted by MLS teams by rule. Also the fact that there are 18 Liga MX teams and 29 MLS teams will skew results as well (13 groups had 1 Liga MX team playing away to 2 MLS teams, and only 2 groups had 2 Liga MX teams against 1 MLS team).

I have thought in the past about these debates about league vs league and thought it would be interesting to have a series where 1st from League A plays 1st from League B, all the way down to the bottom of the leagues (assuming the leagues in question have the same number of teams). Have it be home and away and then you could start getting some top to bottom data points.

It's definitely not perfect but it is actual head to head data.

I've also found this website interesting in the past.  They also try to compare leagues:

https://www.globalfootballrankings.com/compare?first=MajorLeagueSoccer&second=MexicanPrimeraDivisionTorneoClausura

I think most of us who follow this would also go with the gut-feeling test that says that LMX is still slightly better but the gap is closing.

Edited April 5 by Kingston

[Corazon]

10 minutes ago, Kingston said:

It's definitely not perfect but it is actual head to head data.

I've also found this website interesting in the past.  They also try to compare leagues:

https://www.globalfootballrankings.com/compare?first=MajorLeagueSoccer&second=MexicanPrimeraDivisionTorneoClausura

I have to assume that this is based off last years data with Miami in last.  Interesting enough on this chart, we have 1st place Monterrey drawn up against last place (47th) Miami in the quarter finals of CCL this week.  Miami was up for most of the game until Ruiz got a red card for Miami and Monterrey went on to score two quick goals and earn the win.  Miami played without Messi, Redondo and a quite few other key players out with injury while Monterrey appeared to be fully healthy for the most part.

Edited April 5 by Corazon

[Kent]

12 hours ago, RJB said:

Is MLS making no progress, or is the Mexican league progressing at the same rate?

Also, where can I find MLS vs LigaMX statistics?

Here are some MLS vs Liga MX statistics I just put together. It's the results of all head to head matches in the 2023 Leagues Cup, and the Champions League/Cup starting from the 2022 tournament that Seattle won, up to and including this years results to this point.

Very slight edge for MLS in home games, massive edge for Liga MX when they host. I was surprised to find no MLS team has won in Mexico over these last couple years. We will see if that changes this week.

[phil03]

On 4/5/2024 at 8:59 AM, RJB said:

I don't think it matters how the bottom half of the table does.  EPL teams are better than Serie A teams because their top teams win.  If the thirteenth best Serie A team was better than the thirteenth best EPL team, that wouldn't matter.

MLS has a lot of work to do.  

Also, I don't think that Mexican teams are no longer assumed to win.  To me they still are, despite the Sounders winning once.

I respectfully but strongly disagree here. I'd bet against Old Firm clubs and, to a lesser degree, Red Star Belgrade against any MLS team but I don't think anyone but the most militant of purists would argue that the Serb and Scottish leagues are higher than MLS. To take your own example, the EPL is better because it has a consistently higher level of play accross the league, and that is why wins by non-English clubs in Champions League don't lead anyone to question the Premier League's status. While it's harder to quantify statistically what actually matters IMO is the ''baseline level'' of the league, so to speak. What you get if you consider top, mid and low level clubs in their table.

Please don't misunderstand this as me liking the competition, I definitely don't, but IMO the Leagues Cup, even with that massive asterix next to it, is a better indicator of it than CONCACAF considering one league looks for parity while the other doesn't. When MLS will win the CCL as regularly as LigaMx it wouldn't mean MLS is now LigaMx's equal, it would mean LigaMx has now been utterly left behind.

As for who is assumed to win, while of course, I can't speak for you or other fans individually, I'd argue there has been an unmistakable chance of stance in the media. The talk used to be about when will MLS finally break that particular ceiling at least once. Now its more about who is in a better place to win it in any given year.

Edited April 6 by phil03

[Watchmen]

I've read somewhere (possibly on this forum, though not on this thread) that while Liga MX continues to routinely beat MLS in the CL, it's now starting to come at a terrible cost: the rapid decline of the national team, because the biggest Liga MX clubs aren't developing talent, they're importing it.  Which isn't to say that MLS is a bastion of player development, but the current state of the the US/Canadian national teams indicates it's doing a better job.

[phil03]

21 hours ago, Watchmen said:

I've read somewhere (possibly on this forum, though not on this thread) that while Liga MX continues to routinely beat MLS in the CL, it's now starting to come at a terrible cost: the rapid decline of the national team, because the biggest Liga MX clubs aren't developing talent, they're importing it.  Which isn't to say that MLS is a bastion of player development, but the current state of the the US/Canadian national teams indicates it's doing a better job.

This is getting a bit outside of MLS vs LigaMx in the context of Concacaf games but yes, and that isn't the worse of it. The true worse of it is that LigaMx are often used to keep players who have the talent to move upward in LigaMx by paying them more then it would make sense for anyone else to do, and by a margin that is hard for even an ambitious player to refuse.

Obviously, that stunt those players' development but beyond that it has also had negative consequences that are bound to hinder their national team:

-Many clubs all over the place that it was no longer worth maintaining a scouting apparatus in Mexico.

-It has generally made LigaMx's academies less attractive, as keeping those top talents around mean that these domestic player spots aren't available (when international spots are, as you mentioned, very much filled) and, as mentioned above, there is less eyes from abroad looking for Mexican talents.

-While its far from the only factor behind it, it has also played a role in the challenges faced by their second tier, which has been under something of a financial restructuring plan for a while now and whose best recent transfer (the last time I checked anyway) was to a Costa Rican club. Keeping more domestic top talents in LigaMx, on top of importing a lot of good players from the rest of Latin American, and having less eyes from abroad looking for prospects means that the main motivation to play in Mexico's second tier (the hope of an upward move) is less powerful and these same factors also mean that these clubs don't get that crucial transfer money they would need...

This all the more of an issue for LigaMx and Mexican football because the two factors that made them so profitable, the fact Mexicans support their domestic football more fervently then most countries without a tier I league and the fact it has many fans among Mexican Americans, won't be as powerful going forward. The fact games from all across the world are more easily available than ever has and will keep chipping at the higher degree of loyalty LigaMx has often commanded among domestic fans and with the main immigration wave from Mexico over (most newcomers to the US from Latin America come from further south and the US-Mexico immigration balance is actually in favor of the later) since now the new generations of Mexican Americans are less likely to be fans of LigaMx then their parents and grandparents, and when they are to be LigaMx first when it come to the club game, turning to MLS and or big European clubs instead since they have naturally less direct ties with Mexico then their parents and grandparents. When the money starts to be a bit rarer then the damages that have and are still done to academies, the Mexican second tier, and the pipeline to abroad will probably become very significant issues indeed.

And that isn't even getting into how the current instability in Mexico will impact their football scene in the mid and long run!

Edited April 6 by phil03

[Kent]

On 4/5/2024 at 6:35 PM, phil03 said:

Please don't misunderstand this as me liking the competition, I definitely don't, but IMO the Leagues Cup, even with that massive asterix next to it, is a better indicator of it than CONCACAF considering one league looks for parity while the other doesn't. When MLS will win the CCL as regularly as LigaMx it wouldn't mean MLS is now LigaMx's equal, it would mean LigaMx has now been utterly left behind.

From your last couple of posts it sounds like you pay more attention to the Mexican soccer scene than I do, but the part I quoted above, if it is true, would have me believe there should be some really bad teams in Liga MX, and a lack of bad teams in MLS. Looking at Leagues Cup results from last year though, here are the teams with the worst records, and the biggest blowout losses.

Necaxa - 0 points and -6 GD
Toronto - 0 points and -6 GD
Atletico San Luis - 0 points and -5 GD
St. Louis - 0 points and -5 GD
Seattle - 0 points and -5 GD
Colorado - 0 points and -4 GD
Austin - 0 points and -4 GD
Tijuana - 0 points and -3 GD
Chivas - 0 points and -3 GD
San Jose - 0 points and -3 GD
LA Galaxy - 0 points and -2 GD

America 4 - St. Louis 0
Minnesota 4 - Puebla 0
Miami 4 - Atlanta 0
Philadelphia 5 - Queretaro 1
NYC 5 - Toronto 0
New England 5 - Atletico San Luis 1

It doesn't look like there is big drop off based on Leagues Cup results for the bottom Liga MX teams. Especially when you consider all those MLS teams played at least 1 home game, and none of the Liga MX teams did.

I'm now off on a bit of a tangent, but I am curious so I'm going to look this up.

MLS teams that played 2 home games in the group stage. I am counting NYC as 2 home games even though one was at NYRB's home against TFC.
12 advanced. 3 eliminated

MLS teams that played 1 home game in the group stage.
7 advanced. 6 eliminated

Just more evidence that the format of the Leagues Cup distorts things too much to be a good measuring stick. Although the number of home games for MLS teams were probably based on seeding, so there might be some bias there in the results.

[phil03]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

From your last couple of posts it sounds like you pay more attention to the Mexican soccer scene than I do, but the part I quoted above, if it is true, would have me believe there should be some really bad teams in Liga MX, and a lack of bad teams in MLS. Looking at Leagues Cup results from last year though, here are the teams with the worst records, and the biggest blowout losses.

Necaxa - 0 points and -6 GD
Toronto - 0 points and -6 GD
Atletico San Luis - 0 points and -5 GD
St. Louis - 0 points and -5 GD
Seattle - 0 points and -5 GD
Colorado - 0 points and -4 GD
Austin - 0 points and -4 GD
Tijuana - 0 points and -3 GD
Chivas - 0 points and -3 GD
San Jose - 0 points and -3 GD
LA Galaxy - 0 points and -2 GD

America 4 - St. Louis 0
Minnesota 4 - Puebla 0
Miami 4 - Atlanta 0
Philadelphia 5 - Queretaro 1
NYC 5 - Toronto 0
New England 5 - Atletico San Luis 1

It doesn't look like there is big drop off based on Leagues Cup results for the bottom Liga MX teams. Especially when you consider all those MLS teams played at least 1 home game, and none of the Liga MX teams did.

I'm now off on a bit of a tangent, but I am curious so I'm going to look this up.

MLS teams that played 2 home games in the group stage. I am counting NYC as 2 home games even though one was at NYRB's home against TFC.
12 advanced. 3 eliminated

MLS teams that played 1 home game in the group stage.
7 advanced. 6 eliminated

Just more evidence that the format of the Leagues Cup distorts things too much to be a good measuring stick. Although the number of home games for MLS teams were probably based on seeding, so there might be some bias there in the results.

(I am not an expert on their soccer landscape but I have developped an interested on the lay of the land, so to speak, in concacaf and there is plenty of ''This is why Mexico has issues these days, these are worse then they appear at first (thanks to favorable match ups due to fifa rankings, how these sometimes tend to self perpetuate and the fact other big boys in concacaf are also shooting themselves in the foot) and why they are going to become way worse'' hot takes coming out recently)

Bad and good are relative term but even then, I would personally characterize it more as LigaMx having a few really good teams relatively speaking boosting their whole profile, which is common in leagues accross the world as it is the MLS with its greater parity who is the exception.

I am well aware the Leagues Cup is a very imperfect yardstick. My broader point is that it is nonetheless still a far better one than Concacaf games when it comes to comparing both leagues as a whole. Like, one league is dominated, in and off the pitch, by a handful of big clubs. The other one has built in rules to not make that happen. Obviously, if you have a tournament against the best teams of both the first league will punch above its weight...

Edited April 7 by phil03

[narduch]

Tigres not available on the One Soccer main feed due to slight conflict with She Believes Cup

[Kent]

8 hours ago, narduch said:

Tigres not available on the One Soccer main feed due to slight conflict with She Believes Cup

Doesn't look like it's even available on a second channel. It's a shame, because it's a lot more interesting than the New England vs America second leg.

1-0 for Tigres, which puts them up 2-1 on aggregate. Second half just started.

[Mihairokov]

Columbus wins in penalties and honestly it was a pretty fun match. Farsi and Russell-Rowe put in their shifts, Nancy did his thing, and Crew escape and move on. Good quality, great environment, great cup match.

[narduch]

Messi starting for Miami tonight v Monterrey. 

It's on One Soccer 

[SpursFlu]

Monterrey have to be Concacafing Messi with this field. Absolutely brutal