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Clock ticking for 2018 WCQ seeding


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Hard to believe but the draw for 2018 WCQ is July 25th of next year.  The gold cup is the same month so those results will not count towards WCQ seeding.  Long story short there's not many games left to improve our current seeding of 11th in CONCACAF.  It's ideal to be top 6 but god forbid we drop out of the top 12 where it could get dicey.  Caribbean and central American teams have their regional championships this fall where ranking points are worth x2.5 so expect some minnows to move up with some inflated rankings like Cuba did 4 years ago. 

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Let's take our WCQ year and imagine that we're at the WCQ draw next March

 

Canada has right now 107.16 from March 2014-2015. Barring a win against Panama or Jamaica, that score will drop.

 

I don't even want to talk about March 2013-2014 which will still count for 50% of the value. When you have only two draws in 10 games it's going to cost. I don't have the numbers here, I wish I'd remember to have kept the detailed March standings for that reason. I didn't, and I can't look back to see how many points gained during each calendar year to know how many points they would have. If the 12th place is lost, this is where. You'll lose .5 of that minuscule number, but it will still be a lot. (Just to compare, Canada had 496 points and got to 272 in one year. Per comparison )

 

March 2012-13 will save us. People can say whatever about our WCQ, that it had a bad ending, but when you have this: 3 losses, a draw in a friendly against the US, a win against Panama in WCQ, 2 wins in WCQ against Cuba, and 1 draw at home against Honduras in WCQ. It's not bad in FIFA's eyes.

 

March 2011-12 will help us because of those glorified friendlies that was WCQ. The Gold Cup wasn't atrocious, 1 draw against Panama, and one loss. It was nothing to make us panic, or to say that we're done.

Edited by Blackdude
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You know, playing friendlies often hurts rankings rather than helps...at least from a mathematical perspective.  Even when you win them.

 

How do you figure???  A win vs. Moldova would have given us roughly 285 points.  If we hypothetically score 285 points in every game we play for a 4-year stretch, we'd have 570 FIFA points, which would put us 6th in CONCACAF right now.

 

Winning friendlies, for us, would most certainly improve our ranking.  Ties are less beneficial of course ...

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You know, playing friendlies often hurts rankings rather than helps...at least from a mathematical perspective. Even when you win them.

From a Canadian perspective. Beating a CONCACAF team ranked lower than 150 (took 150 because that gives the worst ranking) would give you 132 points. That would help our ranking right now.

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I should quantify that to teams ranked lower, winning friendlies always helps the ranking.  I should also quantify that winning for Canada up until the cycle will absolutely help our PERSONAL ranking trying to be 12th and above up until the next cycle.

 

But, as a general statement, which is how I meant my previous statement, not referring necessarily to Canada, especially for high ranking teams (of which Canada is not one), playing friendlies actually has a long term negative impact on overall score.  That's why Cuba, who rarely play actual friendlies, always jump up so much when they win in the rankings.  Same for Palestine as a current example, who is about to shoot up almost 100 places.  The matches they play are always worth more points.

 

It tends to not be noticeable among most countries, obviously, because they are usually playing friendlies at the same time during each cycle.  So while friendlies are dropping off, other friendlies are coming back into the mix, making for a "law of averages" in terms of average potential point value of matches, in that they don't necessitate huge drops or rises in the standings among major teams.

But as a general principle, and this is obviously pretty fracking simple mathematics, if theoretically you were to simply play only matches worth high ranking points, and your win/loss record was relatively equal to those matches worth less (ie friendlies) then your overall average score would always have a higher potential value.  Doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

 

However, since Canada has a relatively low regular overall score, and doesn't have many friendlies to speak of during that interim term, right now any wins during friendlies would obviously increase our overall value.  The rise you see in the Canadian standings also happens a little bit due to the fact that previous losses during the same yearly cycle from PREVIOUS years devalue a little bit.  So in those months where we won matches in the WCQ cycle, we would have to win those friendlies to just have a chance to break even.  It just so happens that during this month, it works out very well that we didn't have high ranking wins.

 

So for Canada right now, yes, it works.  As an overall mathematical principle, they don't much help ranking points.  (except that they give much needed practice to those trying to acquire ranking points in more mathematically valued matches.  Why the hell do you think people play friendlies?  For ranking?  God no...)

 

But then...if Canada LOSES said friendlies?  It's great to say "if we would have win, or when we win", but what if you lose? That's a sure way to see us into 13th or lower, obviously.  It would be interesting to have someone actually calculate Canada's value without playing a single friendly by July of 2015, and then compare it to what you needed in July of 2011, and see if we would be in the ballpark.

 

My suspicion, as is all yours, is that we would fall short, and be 13th or lower, especially due to what happened over the last year.  Which means that if Canada wishes to finish 12th or higher, they DO need friendlies, and further they need results.

 

So again...yes, it helps Canada right now in rankings to play friendlies (if they win), but that doesn't make it a mathematical truth.

Edited by madmonte
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If you lose a friendly you get 0 points you don't lose points. Playing friendlies and losing could not possibly hurt, only "not help".

Yes, it does hurt. It lowers the average points earned over a 12 month period, and the average is what is used by FIFA over four 12 month stretches.

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This assumes we'll have the same qualifying format but it could change if Platini gets the presidency next year. He's proposing a 40 team world cup to get the votes.  CONCACAF might get another place out of that which would make the hex almost redundant (4.5/6 teams). 

 

Octagonal final round?  Keeping it in one final group would preserve the two US-Mexico games

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Octagonal final round?  Keeping it in one final group would preserve the two US-Mexico games

 

Does CONCACAF really need that? They should do something that looks like the Asian WCQ. 2 groups of 4 with a playoff between the 3rd place teams if they get there. CONCACAF has 35 FIFA members. I doubt that most would vote for that.

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If CONCACAF receives 4 direct spots no needed a hex , but an octagonal . And the qualifying format should change :

First round : ranked teams 30 -35 play home- away . The three winners go to next round

Second round : 29 countries + 3 countries of first round = 32 nations divided in 8 groups of 4 . Winners go to final round

Final Round : as you wish : an octagonal or two groups of 4

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According to FIFA ranking :

First round : MONS - USV - CAY- BRVI - ANG - TUC

Pots second round :

1- USA MEX HON CR PAN ELS TRI HAI

2- JAM CUB CAN GUA RD SVI SUR STL

3- GRE ANT BEZ PUR GUY SKI ARU BAR

4- DOM NIC BER CUR BAH MONT USVI CAY

GROUPS

A) MEX SUR GUY BER

B) PAN CAN SKI CAY

C) HON SVI PUR CUR

D) USA STL BEZ MONT

E) ELS JAM GRE BAH

F) TRI GUA BAR USV

G) CR RD ARU NIC

H) HAI CUB ANT DOM

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Aruba just won two Caribbean Cup qualifying games.  Because they rarely play, that bumps their average up severely, in 5 days they will jump to 254 ranking points, ahead of Guatemala, from 23rd to 12th in CONCACAF.

 

Ironically, if they lose or draw to French Guiana, who don't even COUNT for ranking points, they won't qualify for even the first round of qualifying for the Gold Cup.  

Edited by madmonte
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The format I'd love is straight knockout before a mega group of 10 like they have in South America.  The Jamaican FA were pushing for this last time around. A full round robin over 2.5 years would be awesome.  A predictable calendar of fixtures with possibilities to build momentum as a fanbase.  Seems like a lot of games but Panama just played 22 last time out under the current format.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Looked at the preview at the seedings coming next month. I won't do the top 3, because well, I don't even know what will be the top 3 depending on World Cup success. If there are question marks after the country, it means that FIFA's calculator says NAN which means that the team hasn't played a match in a full year (FIFA's calculator is too stupid to not divide by zero, but then again, it's FIFA, how surprised are we?). That team's ranking is unknown and I'm taking their number from the last FIFA ranking. 

 

4) Panama (684)

5) Honduras (637)

6) Jamaica (373)

 

7) Trinidad and Tobago (369)

8) Haiti (262)

9) Canada (250)

10) Cuba (245)

11 El Salvador (234)

12) Aruba!! (233)

 

13) Suriname (213)

14)  Dominican Republic (212) ???

15) Guatemala (204)

16) Saint Vincent (203)

17) Saint-Lucia (195)

18) Grenada (182)

 

ANT 158 ??? BLZ 152 ??? GUY 137 ??? PUR 134 ??? SKN 124 ??? MSR 99   DCA 93   BRB 92   BER 83 ??? NCA 78 ??? TCA 66   CUW 63   BAH 40 ??? VIR 28   CAY 21 ??? VGB 13   ANG 3 ???

 

As you know the 12th spot is the goal. Here are the complicated things.

Aruba will probably stay around that number having been eliminated of the Carribean Cup by losing to French Guiana. So, if they don't play a match until WCQ, which could happen, they'll gain value because they have 0 points for the last year, and by my estimations, they'll get around 30 or so more points. One loss to a FIFA member and they would be out of the conversation. A loss would make them lose about 30 points or so. If the CSA were looking at getting that 12th spot, that would be a friendly I would schedule because their ranking is strong right now, and won't be better and beating them would drop them 30 points or so enough to forget about them.

 

As I've said, the second round of qualification for the Caribbean Cup is in September. I can say this, in October, I hope that Haiti and Trinidad get the maximum points. That's the best case scenario for us is that teams that we're not going to catch anyways beat the teams that they're supposed to beat

 

Tons of teams in the running for the Caribbean Cup haven't played a match this year: Dominican Republic, Antigua, Guyana, Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Anguilla. Those teams will jump up the rankings in September if they get some kind of result.

 

Looking at it Group by Group:

Group 3: 2 non FIFA nations (Guadeloupe and Bonaire) with Suriname and Barbados. IF let's say Suriname beats Barbados, but loses to the other non FIFA nations and gets eliminated, they'll get tons of points, so the best hope is that the winning team of those two advances by finishing 2nd of their group and gets beat by Trinidad.

 

Group 4: 1 non FIFA nation in French Guiana with Puerto Rico, Grenada and Curaçao. PR is the dangerous team. Looking at their group, We only need them to not win against the two FIFA members, and they shouldn't be able to pass us.

 

Group 5: Antigua, Dominican Republic, Saint Vincent and Anguilla. That, my friends is the group to follow, 3 of those 4 haven't played this year, so they'll be racking those FIFA points like it's candy. Dominican Republic is the most dangerous of them all. They're the team that I target as being the team that could pass Canada if they have a good run, but the worst case scenario is them finishing second because they would be in Guadeloupe's group in the next round. Anyways, the runner-up could be extremely dangerous

 

Group 6: Saint Kitts, Dominica, Guyana, Saint-Lucia. Not a group that should worry us. They can't even face Guadeloupe. I don't think that the menace is coming from here.

 

I haven't mentioned Haiti, Trinidad Jamaica, but here's the thing. They need to beat the teams not mentioned in the previous sentences. That would mean zeros and lower average for all those countries.Cuba's the tricky team. It all depends on how this tournament goes and we'll know a lot by the time we'll get there when the October rankings are out.

 

Other things to follow in UNCAF especially since this starts in September.

Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Honduras are our friends. So, as long as they beat the Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua, it will be fine. 

 

Oh and there's one thing Canada can do to help itself. Win games. Because let's say that they beat Jamaica in September, that means that even if Jamaica chokes in their tournament in November, teams that would beat/draw the Reggae Boyz would earn less points because Jamaica would have a worse ranking thanks to a loss to the Boys in Red. I don't know what Benito thinks, but Canada needs to beat Jamaica badly on September 9.

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Looked at the preview at the seedings coming next month. I won't do the top 3, because well, I don't even know what will be the top 3 depending on World Cup success. If there are question marks after the country, it means that FIFA's calculator says NAN which means that the team hasn't played a match in a full year (FIFA's calculator is too stupid to not divide by zero, but then again, it's FIFA, how surprised are we?). That team's ranking is unknown and I'm taking their number from the last FIFA ranking. 

 

4) Panama (684)

5) Honduras (637)

6) Jamaica (373)

 

7) Trinidad and Tobago (369)

8) Haiti (262)

9) Canada (250)

10) Cuba (245)

11 El Salvador (234)

12) Aruba!! (233)

 

13) Suriname (213)

14)  Dominican Republic (212) ???

15) Guatemala (204)

16) Saint Vincent (203)

17) Saint-Lucia (195)

18) Grenada (182)

 

ANT 158 ??? BLZ 152 ??? GUY 137 ??? PUR 134 ??? SKN 124 ??? MSR 99   DCA 93   BRB 92   BER 83 ??? NCA 78 ??? TCA 66   CUW 63   BAH 40 ??? VIR 28   CAY 21 ??? VGB 13   ANG 3 ???

 

As you know the 12th spot is the goal. Here are the complicated things.

Aruba will probably stay around that number having been eliminated of the Carribean Cup by losing to French Guiana. So, if they don't play a match until WCQ, which could happen, they'll gain value because they have 0 points for the last year, and by my estimations, they'll get around 30 or so more points. One loss to a FIFA member and they would be out of the conversation. A loss would make them lose about 30 points or so. If the CSA were looking at getting that 12th spot, that would be a friendly I would schedule because their ranking is strong right now, and won't be better and beating them would drop them 30 points or so enough to forget about them.

 

As I've said, the second round of qualification for the Caribbean Cup is in September. I can say this, in October, I hope that Haiti and Trinidad get the maximum points. That's the best case scenario for us is that teams that we're not going to catch anyways beat the teams that they're supposed to beat

 

Tons of teams in the running for the Caribbean Cup haven't played a match this year: Dominican Republic, Antigua, Guyana, Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Anguilla. Those teams will jump up the rankings in September if they get some kind of result.

 

Looking at it Group by Group:

Group 3: 2 non FIFA nations (Guadeloupe and Bonaire) with Suriname and Barbados. IF let's say Suriname beats Barbados, but loses to the other non FIFA nations and gets eliminated, they'll get tons of points, so the best hope is that the winning team of those two advances by finishing 2nd of their group and gets beat by Trinidad.

 

Group 4: 1 non FIFA nation in French Guiana with Puerto Rico, Grenada and Curaçao. PR is the dangerous team. Looking at their group, We only need them to not win against the two FIFA members, and they shouldn't be able to pass us.

 

Group 5: Antigua, Dominican Republic, Saint Vincent and Anguilla. That, my friends is the group to follow, 3 of those 4 haven't played this year, so they'll be racking those FIFA points like it's candy. Dominican Republic is the most dangerous of them all. They're the team that I target as being the team that could pass Canada if they have a good run, but the worst case scenario is them finishing second because they would be in Guadeloupe's group in the next round. Anyways, the runner-up could be extremely dangerous

 

Group 6: Saint Kitts, Dominica, Guyana, Saint-Lucia. Not a group that should worry us. They can't even face Guadeloupe. I don't think that the menace is coming from here.

 

I haven't mentioned Haiti, Trinidad Jamaica, but here's the thing. They need to beat the teams not mentioned in the previous sentences. That would mean zeros and lower average for all those countries.Cuba's the tricky team. It all depends on how this tournament goes and we'll know a lot by the time we'll get there when the October rankings are out.

 

Other things to follow in UNCAF especially since this starts in September.

Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Honduras are our friends. So, as long as they beat the Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua, it will be fine. 

 

Oh and there's one thing Canada can do to help itself. Win games. Because let's say that they beat Jamaica in September, that means that even if Jamaica chokes in their tournament in November, teams that would beat/draw the Reggae Boyz would earn less points because Jamaica would have a worse ranking thanks to a loss to the Boys in Red. I don't know what Benito thinks, but Canada needs to beat Jamaica badly on September 9.

 

Yup.  This is pretty much the entire thought process that I've gone through in my head ... I just didn't have the patience to summarize it all like this.  :)

 

It really is dawning on my how f**king stupid the FIFA rankings are.  Aruba could easily pass us on the back of 2 wins vs. Turks&C and British Virgin Islands.  Wow.

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With 35 members in CONCACAF have bottom six play a first round home and home knockout, leaving three teams out.

Then top 16 play bottom 16 in a knockout, one plays 32, 2 plays 31 etc.

Leaving 16 teams, one plays lowest ranked winner of previous round.

Final eight play home and away for 14 games, top three qualify, fourth goes to playoff with other confederation for half spot.

Yes it means a USA, Mexico etc. vs a minnow early on, and spot 12 to 20 become very exciting in first round.

To help the confederation develop losing teams could be put in a CONCACAF league minus the top eight, who would play through the remaking qualifying in three groups of nine call them B,c,and D pools.

Use confederation TV money for world cup TV rights to fund the B,C,and D pools. All to the purpose of making smaller programs more consistent and building stronger national teams throughout CONCACAF.

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  • 1 month later...

Wanted to give this thread a bump.

 

Just looked over the latest FIFA rankings released.  I must say, it doesn't look very good for Canada regarding holding onto a top 12 spot.  This is mostly because of a stupid system and other countries playing qualifiers that carry large point value but, at the end of the day, all anyone remembers is where you are ranked and how it affects WCQ.  For us, this could be disastrous; with an unlucky draw, we could conceivably get eliminated before even getting to the semi-final stage!

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Wanted to give this thread a bump.

Just looked over the latest FIFA rankings released. I must say, it doesn't look very good for Canada regarding holding onto a top 12 spot. This is mostly because of a stupid system and other countries playing qualifiers that carry large point value but, at the end of the day, all anyone remembers is where you are ranked and how it affects WCQ. For us, this could be disastrous; with an unlucky draw, we could conceivably get eliminated before even getting to the semi-final stage!

It's been a while since I've looked, but could doing well in the September friendlies help?

It's tough to move up the rankings when we only play friendlies. I imagine our performance at the last Gold Cup is the major culprit in our poor showings recently. Can the CSA lobby to join a random Mickey Mouse cup for the sake of having a fair shot in FIFA rankings? And no, they aren't completely meaningless. They mean quite a lot for one month every four years.

Of course, the format for 2018 WCQ is still yet to be released. We may see something new. What are the odds of CONCACAF getting more than 3.5 spots for this cycle?

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