youllneverwalkalone Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 And why would the CFU accept that? Jack Warner is dead. Who gives a shit about the CFU? My example gave spots to T&T, Jamaica, Cuba. The rest of the CFU countries can barely afford to play a 2 match play-in. If you want to expand a double hex to 14 or 16, sure. Do whatever you need to make everyone happy. I just think Canada's pull in CONCACAF is a lot greater than their current ranking. If we see them lined up in a possible knock-out draw with Panama in the first round, the format will be changed to something more predictable. If FIFA has to make that call, they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackdude Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Jack Warner is dead. Who gives a shit about the CFU? My example gave spots to T&T, Jamaica, Cuba. The rest of the CFU countries can barely afford to play a 2 match play-in. If you want to expand a double hex to 14 or 16, sure. Do whatever you need to make everyone happy. I just think Canada's pull in CONCACAF is a lot greater than their current ranking. If we see them lined up in a possible knock-out draw with Panama in the first round, the format will be changed to something more predictable. If FIFA has to make that call, they will. 71% of the federation would never accept that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Warner might be dead, but the new Warner is Jeffrey Webb. The caribbean whether we like it or not runs this federation. We have been seeing more and more evidence of this over the last 5 years (expanded WCQ, expanded GC spots etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmonte Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I mean, rankings have always intrigued me. But in the long haul, we can't obsess over them. Beat the teams we need to beat, and we'll be where we need to be. If we don't (and we haven't been) then we won't. USA and Mexico aren't in the mickey mouse cups, and their rankings are just fine. The Caribbean Cup and Copa Centroamericana create little ranking bubbles that temporarily skyrocket teams, but these things are temporary. You see it every year, and then their rankings sink back down to reality. Let's see where Aruba ranks in Sept of 2015, for example, same with Antigua and Barbuda in October of 2015. Take Guyana in 2010 for example, or Puerto Rico. Their qualifying round in Caribbean Cup skyrocket them, Guyana to 7th, and Puerto Rico to 15th. By the time the draw for 2014 happened (Aug 2014) Guyana was 14th Puerto Rico 20th. Grenada also experienced a big spike. Central American rankings are a little more likely to stick, because the Cup is finished. But Canada being 15th for October, they don't have to do anything to improve. Simply wait for the other teams' ratings to go back down to normal, and we'll be back in the top 12, given a couple friendlies with positive results. I already said, it's a mathematical spike but in the long run it will average back out. For us, it will all be the 2015 Gold Cup that will determine or 2018 path. With our results being so poor the last two years, we would absolutely need the Gold Cup ranking points, but since the draw is so soon after the Gold Cup, if we did really well in it, honeslty, we could EASILY be top 6, because it would be such a huge spike. If we do poorly, no worse than 15th. If we do average, a win, draw, couple losses, probably 12th. Don't believe me? Wait until July and then play with the rankings calculator and see the possibilities then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 But madmonte, we cannot wait a year for the rankings to drop back to down to reality. CONCACAF used the March 2011 rankings last time around and may do so again (well, March 2015 this time) because it will conveniently keep the caribbean teams' rankings artificially high (avoiding the drop from poor GC results). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmonte Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 A good point jpg I had forgotten that. Okay so with that in mind, if three teams push Canada out then that could be three teams that are artificially high to be drawn against. In 2010 it was Grenada and Guyana as the main ones, since we are talking about teams pushing more deserving/consistent teams out of the top ten due to strong Caribbean Cup qualifying. I'll go examine those two, brb... Okay, so by March Guyana WAS still top 12, Grenada had moved down to 14th. Note Guyana had some good ranking points and was 12th BEFORE their strong Caribbean Cup performance as well. This year it will be teams like Antigua and Barbuda, perhaps Barbados (depending on October), Saint Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis as the temporary spikes. All these teams have to play again in October in the next qualifying round, so we shall see how their results go. A couple more wins in October, and yeah perhaps one or two of these teams will be guaranteed top 12 by March. For sure that would push a couple teams NORMALLY in the top 12 out, and Canada could be one of them. But not all of these teams will be in the top 12 by March, I guarantee it. It will be a bit of a crapshoot, but in THIS case, it COULD be that Canada's opposition from 7-12 might not be harder (in reality, forget ranking) than what they could pull from 13-18. If that's the case, we just have to bloody hope, as I said earlier, that we draw the spiking minnow and not the central american actual contender come time for the draw. And that goes for whether we are ranked 13th, or 12th, or even 20th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Preview of the next rankings courtesy of http://www.football-rankings.info/2014/09/fifa-ranking-september-2014-final.html 57 Guatemala ------------------------------------------------- 72 El Salvador 80 Antigua & Barbuda 86 T&T 100 Jamaica 106 St. VAG 107 Dominican Rep. ------------------------------------------------- 117 St. Kitts & Nevis 119 Haiti 120 Canada 122 Cuba 123 St. Lucia Well, that pretty much settles it - we're not going to be anywhere near the top 12. Guatemala moved up over 70 spots thanks to victories over Belize, ES and Honduras and a loss to Costa Rica. Seriously. Antigua & Barbuda (they of the winless USL Pro team) move up almost as many spots after beating St. VAG, Dominican Rep. and Anguila. WTF. The next round of Caribbean Cup action takes place Oct. 8-12. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Caribbean_Cup_qualification#Second_round Group 7: T&T, Antigua, St. Lucia, Dominican Rep. Group 8: Haiti, St. Kitts, Barbados, French Guiana Group 9: Guadeloupe, Curacao, Martinique, St. VAG The top 2 from each group are joined by Cuba and Jamaica in the final round. We could be out of the top 18 by the time the dust settles. Got to give the CFU credit, they figured out how to play the system and get their teams better draws for the qualifiers. As long as we don't have to face Jamaica, Panama or Honduras next year i won't shit bricks about this. If the worse we're up against is T&T, ES or Guate, well we should be able to beat either of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baulderdash77 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The CFU Championship is the biggest joke in all of FIFA. How they manage to get it qualified as equal points to the Gold Cup is amazing. It's also amazing that there's no good teams on it so the points to be taken are ridiculously easy to get and manipulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmonte Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It doesn't settle anything yet, the Caribbean has two more rounds to go, guaranteed minnows be dropping points... Plus Canada's losses over September/October/November) will start to become devalued (meaning by March we will be gaining ranking by doing nothing at all, so our wins will start to mean more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obinna Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 So the rankings are out for this month. We went from 250 pts to 265. We are now 15th place in CONCACAF. 7. El Salvador 431 8. Antigua 411 9. T&T 374 10. Jamaica 321 11. St. Vag 301 12. Dominican 295 Not playing qualifiers absolutely kills us. The CSA should try and get CONCACAF to agree to let us play in a 3 group home and away round against the 5th place Central American and the 5th place team in the Caribbean. They could even expand it and have us play Mexico and USA in the same format, with the last place team (surely us) playing in the 3 group home and away round I just described. That will also give Mexico and the USA more chances to play one another and continue that great rivalry and make money. It gives them a chance to grow the USA - Canada rivalry (which a lot of Americans want). It gives 2 other teams in the Caribbean and Central America another game to earn FIFA points. It will give us more experience playing in those environments. Everyone wins! Why not??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmonte Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I absolutely guarantee that ranking points changes in Canada's favor a touch for October ranking. Not sure if that means their ranking itself will improve, but it could/should, depending on how the October Caribbean Cup goes. I don't guarantee past that, but the math I did a couple weeks ago doesn't lie, the minnows ranking will slowly diminish. I said it many times in this thread. Hopefully it's enough to get to 12th by March, even without us doing anything. It'll be a close call, but we SHOULD be ok, depending on the results of the Caribbean Cup. Sucks playing the waiting game. Sucks more if they use rankings so close after the Caribbean Cup for WCQ qual, sorta could screw us. Some of THOSE teams will actually rocket even MORE in points, but some will see a drastic drop as well. Interestingly, look for Dominican Republic to be the team to potentially continue to rise. Significantly if they play well in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzx Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 How much does our result in Panama change things? Is it irrelevant? no one seem to talk about it in their assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackdude Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 How much does our result in Panama change things? Is it irrelevant? no one seem to talk about it in their assumptions. It's less relevant than the other team's results. A loss would be catastrophic, let's just say that. I'm not sure about a draw, yet because the results will be place on the next FIFA rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmonte Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 It's less relevant than the other team's results. A loss would be catastrophic, let's just say that. I'm not sure about a draw, yet because the results will be place on the next FIFA rankings. Exactly right. But then, by March to be honest, it could be even 5, 10 points that separate 13th and 12th right now. Given the recent run of results, I'd say it's quite possible a loss in Panama could be the deciding factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympique_de_Marseille Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 We need to play 2 good friendlies in during the March 23rd to 31st FIFA dates and PRAY they use the April rankings or later. We certainly can't count on June friendlies because it will almost certainly be too late and at that point and we will be in full Women's World Cup mode - so little attention on the CMNT to schedule anything promising anyways. Even that may not be enough: Cuba plays at home to Guatemala in October; if they get a draw or a win they will steal points + all those 2014 Caribbean Cup qualifier games. We will have a better idea of how screwed we are by October 24th. It seems unlikely that we will drop out of the top 18 though which would be an epic disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youllneverwalkalone Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 Has it been confirmed that we will use the same qualifying format as last time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympique_de_Marseille Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 Has it been confirmed that we will use the same qualifying format as last time? No it hasn't. Last time Concacaf stated that they were trying to get 4 spots instead of 3.5. They had a whole new format if they were given four spots. When the 3.5 was re-confirmed they proposed keeping the Hex format in March 2011 if I remember correctly. http://www.thevoyageurs.org/index.php?/topic/22024-concacaf-bid-for-a-4th-wc-spot-fails-qualification-process-to-change-again-sigh/ Concacaf may lobby once again for 4 spots instead of 3.5 since 3 teams made it to the round of 16 (only 2 made it in 2010) and 1 team made it to the quarter-finals (none in 2010). I doubt we will move beyond 3.5 since it would be politically challenging to steal a 0.5 from AFC. We would never steal a 0.5 from Conmebol since all South America teams except Ecuador made it to the round of 16. It would look very unfair to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youllneverwalkalone Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 This 0.5 spot seems like a bit of a red herring. Nothing to prevent the two second place teams in a double hex or double octogon or whatever, play-off for 3rd and 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beachesl Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 As discussed ad inifnitum here for the last 18 years, no way CONCACAF would have two hexes or anything else that would eliminate the big USA-Mexico ticket. Is no yust abou futbol amigo. It is just not about having the two matches, it is about ensuring the two big commerical markets actually make it to the big big show every 4 years. And given the increased control of CONCACAF by the Carribean countires, it will also be about trying to get as many matches for Carribean countries as possible for the qualifiers. I predict quarter-final groups of 4 (early 2016), with byes for the top 3 or 4 (US, Mex & CR if 3) to the 3 semi-final groups of 4 (late 2016). To facilitate the entry of Carribean clubs into the semi-final groups, we may this time see 2 teams moving on from the quarter-final round to the semi groups, which means even more elimination home-and-aways in the fall of 2015, including at least one for Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youllneverwalkalone Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 So on the one hand, banana republic nations of a couple hundred thousands control CONCACAF but, on the other, Mexico and the US control CONCACAF. Which one is it? You want the US and Mexico guaranteed twice per cycle, cut these 25 loser countries loose with that 0.5 spot and take our chances in a final round of 10 with Central America, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beachesl Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 So on the one hand, banana republic nations of a couple hundred thousands control CONCACAF but, on the other, Mexico and the US control CONCACAF. Which one is it? You want the US and Mexico guaranteed twice per cycle, cut these 25 loser countries loose with that 0.5 spot and take our chances in a final round of 10 with Central America, Both, they are not contradictory, they are complimentary. Corruption and advantage requires money, it is divide and conquer. I do not want it, CONCACAF does. And if it means that Canada is put in a pot with Nicaragua and Belize to face one of Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama/or/Honduras just to make it into the quaterfinal round, that may happen as well. Obviously I am speculating here, but I think we should at least be prepared for some rude surprizes sometime over the next 9 months before the qualifying draw on July 25, 2015 in St Petersburg. CSA is pretty well a bystander as all this unfolds. Regardless of who we play over the next X months, we will only be capable of changing our ranking a smidgen, and it may not be all that relevant in the end anyway. I am pretty sure we will not just have the twisted path of 18 games to make it to the big show like we did last time. It could turn into an even more tortuous path of as much as 26 or 28 matches, with higher risk of being eliminated earlier, even before 2015 ends. If Panama stays ahead of Honduras in the rankings, we may just have to win a match in San Pedro Sula in November 2015, or it is eyes to 2022. We will make our own luck, however, if we improve rapidly on the field of play as we all hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youllneverwalkalone Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 But what about all the hand-jobs we've given to FIFA since 2007? Surely, FIFA need to approve the qualifying format, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beachesl Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 But what about all the hand-jobs we've given to FIFA since 2007? Surely, FIFA need to approve the qualifying format, no? Has FIFA, to anyone's knowledge, ever intervened in any confederations' plan for WC qualification? I do not think so. I have just scanned the previous posts on this thread, and although Canada is not going to be ignored, I think there is a lot of fantasy and delusion about CSA's and Canada's "pull" (to use another colleagues' term) in CONCACAF or FIFA at the present time. Any byes into things like a double hex, or a semi-final round, or even a possible quarter-final round, are all science-fiction. The best I hope for is that someone in CONCACAF realizes the importance of Canada's POTENTIAL in the world football community , and at least gives us a bye into any quarter final round if there is one, or not make us have a difficult home-and-away series to qualify for any group round at any level. However, a WCQ ladder has never operated on any method of agreement between national federations, especially in CONCACAF. It has always been done by a few unanswerable men sitting around a very small table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Instead of stealing the wildcard spot from AFC, another idea i've hear written on in the past couple years is expanding the playoff system more generally, making it more like UEFA's model The idea being that 24 teams get direct qualification, then 16 more do a home and home vs one other team for the last 8 spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youllneverwalkalone Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Has FIFA, to anyone's knowledge, ever intervened in any confederations' plan for WC qualification? I do not think so. 18 Preliminary draw, format of play and group formation 1. The FIFA Executive Committee decides on the format of play, the group formation and the duration of the preliminary competition. It forms groups and/or sub-groups for the preliminary competition by seeding and drawing lots whilst taking sports and geographic factors into consideration, as far as possible. Any seeding based on team performance for each confederation’s preliminary competition shall be based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking. The decisions of the FIFA Executive Committee are fi nal and not subject to appeal. The preliminary draw will take place in Brazil on 30 July 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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