Loss of the National Football Stadium

[Macksam]

@Joe MacCarthy

Based on what a few of our Vees have written in these last few posts, they seem to indicate the exact opposite viewpoint, that it was the TFC fans being reactionary to what the CFL guys were saying.

[Joe MacCarthy]

8 hours ago, Macksam said:

@Joe MacCarthy

Based on what a few of our Vees have written in these last few posts, they seem to indicate the exact opposite viewpoint, that it was the TFC fans being reactionary to what the CFL guys were saying.

If that is the case, how did this thread get restarted?

Just to make a point, I haven't commented on many points made by some posters here that I believe to be incorrect.  Even ol' Joe doesn't have the energy anymore to take on ten guys and every point they've made by himself, but that doesn't mean I've run away from the debate.  Old timers here would know better than that

It also means I find the responses a lot more reasonable than in the past where they were pretty venomous and needed a response.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

On 2016/08/21 at 9:36 PM, Joe MacCarthy said:

Agree with much of what you said, but I wouldn't get too cocky about TFC just yet.

Maybe I am reading too much into this, but it comes across as being in line with what a lot of CFL types see as the natural order eventually being restored with the Argos elbowing TFC aside to become anchor tenants with MLS proving to be a flash in the pan like the original NASL was in the late 70s and early 80s. What I think a lot of CFL types don't grasp is how good MLS is getting. Back in 2007 and 2008 the quality was OK but still borderline for the size of crowds that were showing up and the level of investment that was going into it given players that really were not full-time pro level like Jarrod Smith and Andrea Lombardo were still very much part of the equation, but that's really not the case now and the trajectory still appears to me to be very much upwards. Ten years from now the CFL will be much the same as it is now as an entertainment product, but the real question mark is over where MLS gets to if it is able to close the gap even more on the top European leagues. A lot of soccer people in southern Ontario have yet to embrace TFC, because they view MLS as second rate. What happens if/when they start to pay attention?

[Joe MacCarthy]

Very few CFL people were saying or thinking they'd push aside TFC, if they were, they were idiots because most people know it won't go back to the heyday of the 70s.  I think most hoped it could be an equal sharing existence (like the Jets and Giants earlier in this thread) and that they could get over 20k in the smaller stadium.

TFC people kept puffing their chest saying the Argos were 4th choice for dates which is patently ridiculous because the Argos only have 10 games, with very few having a TFC conflict, and TSN would get what they wanted anyway.

What I'm wondering is where TFC growth will come from?  Montreal and Vancouver have their own teams and each team seems to have very little support outside their area, especially Toronto which is a conundrum in the huge GTA.  Toronto is averaging 38k eyeballs across the country (including GTA), do people grasp how insignificant that is?  TSN is not happy and in the same vein as i was saying above about if the NFL came in, coverage is the lifeblood of a franchise.  If they can't get that there's trouble and we saw that in the last two years of the Argos when Braley killed the Argos sales and marketing departments.  It's hard to say if they'll be able to recover from that.

MLS and CFL are more similar than people think and each is up against a behemoth in its own sport, rather than each other.  The people who view the CFL and MLS as second rate aren't going to change.  Ottawa has succeeded in part due to young people coming back who have no preconceived notion about the CFL, rather than old attitudes, maybe that will be the same for MLS.

Here's a question I have.  The young audiences for the CFL came back in Ottawa and Hamilton, are young people in Toronto significantly different that they couldn't come back there as well?

[pint]

44 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

Very few CFL people were saying or thinking they'd push aside TFC, if they were, they were idiots because most people know it won't go back to the heyday of the 70s.  I think most hoped it could be an equal sharing existence (like the Jets and Giants earlier in this thread) and that they could get over 20k in the smaller stadium.

TFC people kept puffing their chest saying the Argos were 4th choice for dates which is patently ridiculous because the Argos only have 10 games, with very few having a TFC conflict, and TSN would get what they wanted anyway.

What I'm wondering is where TFC growth will come from?  Montreal and Vancouver have their own teams and each team seems to have very little support outside their area, especially Toronto which is a conundrum in the huge GTA.  Toronto is averaging 38k eyeballs across the country (including GTA), do people grasp how insignificant that is?  TSN is not happy and in the same vein as i was saying above about if the NFL came in, coverage is the lifeblood of a franchise.  If they can't get that there's trouble and we saw that in the last two years of the Argos when Braley killed the Argos sales and marketing departments.  It's hard to say if they'll be able to recover from that.

MLS and CFL are more similar than people think and each is up against a behemoth in its own sport, rather than each other.  The people who view the CFL and MLS as second rate aren't going to change.  Ottawa has succeeded in part due to young people coming back who have no preconceived notion about the CFL, rather than old attitudes, maybe that will be the same for MLS.

Here's a question I have.  The young audiences for the CFL came back in Ottawa and Hamilton, are young people in Toronto significantly different that they couldn't come back there as well?

The part in bold is fact, from the mouth of Bob Hunter. Ignore it if you like but it is fact

 

The part in Italics: What else do young people in ottawa and Hamilton have to do? Ottawa has an NHL team that's way out of the city and an NASL team thats drawing pretty well for NASL. Hamilton had an AHL team and now has an OHL team. The CFL doesn't really have much competition in either city. In Toronto the stadium site isn't good for the current fan base who mainly live outside the city and drive in and the new fan base they want has jays, tfc, concerts, festivals, cottages etc as an alternative.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

The Argos were huge in Toronto up to the mid-70s when the Jays emerged, which neatly fits that argument. Beyond that there is a big difference between a forward line led by Andy Welsh and one led by Sebastian Giovinco and that sort of progress means that TFC and MLS can't be viewed as being static in entertainment value terms in the way that the CFL is, so it isn't safe to assume MLS is always going to remain a niche attraction even among Canadian soccer fans rather than reaching the mainstream numbers that European Championships and World Cups can attract. Won't happen overnight, but I suspect TSN and others will have no problem using MLS as scheduling filler content in the mean time. There are so many more cable channels now than there were back in the 1980s when the CSL was trying to make headway with rosters that were largely semi-pro level.

[theaub]

45 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

Here's a question I have.  The young audiences for the CFL came back in Ottawa and Hamilton, are young people in Toronto significantly different that they couldn't come back there as well?

As someone who fits in to that group, the answer right now is yes.

To start off though, needs to be made clear that answering yes has absolutely nothing to do with TFC.  There was a time from like 2008-2011 where TFC was the 'it' place to be in the summer sports scene in Toronto due to the atmosphere (and the Jays being bad).  I was in university then and we all flocked to games.  Eventually that honeymoon died down...the team was terrible, management had minimal respect for those who had put up with five years of it, and most of us gave up our seasons.  I don't have hard numbers but I don't think the team has never truly got back that 18-25 demographic they owned for the first few seasons.  

There's multiple reasons for that.  First and foremost, there is now a far better summer sports team in the city, and by the nature of there being 81 home games you can pay the same price to watch the Blue Jays as you can for TFC/Argos.  The Jays are a juggernaut right now...even with their ECF run the Raptors didn't come close to competing with them in the market and although it might be a bit of a #hottake I'd say they're bigger than the Leafs at the moment.  Although TFC is a rather well-oiled machine, there's not a ton of hype in the city for them.   As you noted with the poor TV ratings, TFC will always be a gate team because its easy to draw kids/parents out and the 'hardcore' base of TFC fans is still rather sizeable.  It doesn't hurt that with every game at 7:30, its easy to hit the streetcar and be in the heart of King West by 10 PM (which is the best move TFC has made to try to re-attract the university aged demographic). 

That links back to the second reason - in Hamilton/Ottawa, those teams don't need to compete with the plethora of other entertainment options that exist in Toronto (Hamilton also has a civic pride factor that would never be able to be replicated for the Argos since our inferiority complex is with the US, not other Canadian cities - which works as a bit of a double whammy against the Argos since it especially applies for the Raptors and Blue Jays).  The Argos marketing this year has been trying to make the games an event (mostly with the "tailgating") but that's a terrible angle to take IMO.  An Argos game will never be an event in this city.  Hell, outside of Beckham showing up (and down the road, Ronaldo and Messi) TFC never has been one either. 

The thing is, I don't actually know what the right way to market them is.  I did some freelance stuff for the Ti-Cats when I was in university and it was rather easy.  The Argos?  I can't stress how little interest there is in the Argos from my friends (pretty much all of whom are big sports fans).  There's...two people who have asked me for Argos tickets this year.  Everybody laughs at the tailgate angle because it makes the actual game seem like a secondary attraction - and honestly instead of having to travel out to the Ex to pay $40 for parking and $4 for beer I can just go to one of the 100 patios downtown and pay $8 for a beer and buy a burger and its not much different (or just take the 2 hour drive to Buffalo in September and live the dream of the life event that is a Bills tailgate).  

I'm not exactly sure where I'm concluding with this, but to circle back to the original question, the Argos marketing team needs to think long and hard about how to actually make the game seem attractive.  If they can make the in-stadium product seem fun (and with no more stadium construction, there should also be a few more weekend dates), I actually think they can do OK.  If not, as someone noted above they're just going to alienate their actual fanbase.

 

 

[paul-collins]

I keep seeing the argument about viewership, but it has to be noted that this is very much a chicken and egg question.

Networks use the low numbers to justify warehousing the show (SN360 anyone?, or just a single TSN channel out of 5).  But you can't get numbers without wider exposure AND investment in advertising.

TSN is trying to do with CFL what it has done with the World Junior hockey tournament.  Create a media moneymaker out of what is a relatively regional product. 

TSN has been pumping the tires of CFL since 2006, when they started broadcasting ALL CFL regular season games (they took over playoffs in 2008).  They've done a good job, pushing the schedule into a TV friendly place, and working the angles to remind viewers of the games.

MLS has what should be considered a TV friendly schedule.  It needs a BROADcasting partner to see value in it and promote the games.  

(And it needs to continue to grow in quality; as BBTB noted, the quality has grown significantly in the last decade - but it needs to do more to get past entrenched value judgements of fans of BPL, La Liga, Bundesliga etc)

[Macksam]

2 hours ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

What I'm wondering is where TFC growth will come from?  Montreal and Vancouver have their own teams and each team seems to have very little support outside their area, especially Toronto which is a conundrum in the huge GTA.  Toronto is averaging 38k eyeballs across the country (including GTA), do people grasp how insignificant that is? 

The growth will come from within the GTA and the ROC will follow suit as the league gets more popular, which will happen as the quality grows and the salary cap increases. The moment MLS clubs have team salaries in the 20 million plus range and minimum contracts become $500,000, the pendulum will swing towards this league's favour when compared to its European counterparts on the home front. The fragmented soccer ratings you see across the board right now when it comes to the various leagues out there will all converge on MLS at that point. I'm not saying people will completely forego the European game. However, those very people will start watching MLS as well. Once that happens, there will no turning back.

[jonovision]

14 minutes ago, Macksam said:

The growth will come from within the GTA and the ROC will follow suit as the league gets more popular, which will happen as the quality grows and the salary cap increases. The moment MLS clubs have team salaries in the 20 million plus range and minimum contracts become $500,000, the pendulum will swing towards this league's favour when compared to its European counterparts on the home front. The fragmented soccer ratings you see across the board right now when it comes to the various leagues out there will all converge on MLS at that point. I'm not saying people will completely forego the European game. However, those very people will start watching MLS as well. Once that happens, there will no turning back.

I really don't see the ROC outside of the 3 local markets becoming big MLS watchers on TV unless the league expands further into Canada, which surely isn't happening. 

[Macksam]

2 minutes ago, jonovision said:

I really don't see the ROC outside of the 3 local markets becoming big MLS watchers on TV unless the league expands further into Canada, which surely isn't happening. 

They'll come later, when the league becomes really top tier. When it comes to the league expanding further into Canada, it's definitely a possibility down the road if investors in the other three cities show up. However, it has to be done in the league's current state. Once this league gets a huge, lucrative TV contract, expansion will most likely cease altogether.

Now, if those cities develop pro teams themselves in the NASL or some other alternative league, that would also deter ratings away from MLS.

[Joe MacCarthy]

1 minute ago, Macksam said:

Once this league gets a huge, lucrative TV contract, expansion will most likely cease altogether.

That's what I keep reading and MLS growth is predicated upon it but how can it happen when viewership is so low.  And then I'm constantly told the millennials don't watch TV.  Until companies figure out a way to monetize content to a group of people who have grown up around downloading music and movies for free, how do they expect to get money for that content?

And if there are people honest enough to pay for services (and there are) will the numbers justify the cost to provide the content?

[Joe MacCarthy]

1 hour ago, paul-collins said:

TSN is trying to do with CFL what it has done with the World Junior hockey tournament.  Create a media moneymaker out of what is a relatively regional product. 

Regional?  Does that definition mean mostly the ROC minus Toronto?

[Joe MacCarthy]

2 hours ago, pint said:

The part in bold is fact, from the mouth of Bob Hunter. Ignore it if you like but it is fact

Oh, I believe he said it all right, but do you really think TSN wouldn't get what they want for the Argos?  Not that it was that big a deal with only ten games to schedule and next year should be even easier without the construction to work around.

[Macksam]

21 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

That's what I keep reading and MLS growth is predicated upon it but how can it happen when viewership is so low.  And then I'm constantly told the millennials don't watch TV.  Until companies figure out a way to monetize content to a group of people who have grown up around downloading music and movies for free, how do they expect to get money for that content?

And if there are people honest enough to pay for services (and there are) will the numbers justify the cost to provide the content?

That is a million dollar question all sports leagues in the future will have to answer. Besides MLS, the NBA, MLB and NFL will all have to plan for a potential catastrophic TV bubble burst.

[Joe MacCarthy]

^Agree

[pint]

48 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

Oh, I believe he said it all right, but do you really think TSN wouldn't get what they want for the Argos?  Not that it was that big a deal with only ten games to schedule and next year should be even easier without the construction to work around.

MLS schedule is made first and CFL has to work around it, period. That is how it works and if you think Rogers is going to allow bell to dictate anything other than the agreement that is in place you would be very mistaken.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

There's this engrained mentality that won't go away that the CFL simply has to be more important than soccer that some people don't appear to be able move beyond, because it is tied into their sense of Canadian identity. Scheduling priority at BMO Field is decided by MLSE not TSN, because they operate the stadium on behalf of the City of Toronto. For MLSE it all boils down to money and TFC is clearly generating more of that in a Toronto context at the moment with the promise of a bonanza down the road if more soccer fans start to take MLS seriously as playing standards converge with those over in Europe as the Academy programs start to bear fruit. MLSE were happy to invest in MLS on that basis but not the CFL, because their number crunchers concluded that the Argos were a charity case that needs to be propped up to keep the league going smoothly elsewhere as was the case when David Braley was the owner. It's obvious that this season the Argos had to work around TFC on scheduling based on who got the plum weekend dates with the sole exception being the Grey Cup, which is where money kicks in again given lots of people can be expected to fly in from elsewhere and pay very high ticket prices in a manner that makes MLSE a very healthy profit.

[Joe MacCarthy]

You seem to be running fast and loose with the term MLSE.  First you say, they didn't want to invest in the CFL and then later you say the Grey Cup gives them a healthy profit.  Come on now.

MLSE=Bell+Rogers+Tanenbaum
Argos= Bell+Tanenbaum

[Joe MacCarthy]

1 hour ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

There's this engrained mentality that won't go away that the CFL simply has to be more important than soccer that some people don't appear to be able move beyond,

And the other ingrained mentality from an agenda a few have here, is if the Argos and CFL die, TFC will gain the ascendancy.  Hence there are a few here who want to see them die which I think is reprehensible for a team in your own community.  And I have gone on record as to saying that to a few moron CFL fans who say the same about TFC.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

The meaning of MLSE is abundantly clear and it does not coincide with the Argos ownership group. Rogers had nothing to gain financially from taking on the Argos unlike Bell who own 80% of TSN, so were not willing to get involved with them in ownership terms. Two Grey Cups had to be provided by the CFL as opposed to the Argos before MLSE would sign off on a tenancy for the Argos. That's part and parcel of the ongoing propping up of the Argos as a charity case. The Grey Cup is a moneyspinner because people from outside the GTA will fly in and spend a lot of money in a manner they would not do for an Argos regular season game where it's the local market that has to provide the crowd.

[Gordon]

At the risk of injecting objective evidence into this debate, I would just like to let folks know that the 2016 survey on sport is now available. reginaldbibby.com "things new" to have a boo. Sadly, only really looks at MLS rather thn soccer as a whole, but still useful insight into why the Argos might still have some juice in Toronto. Or not, spin away everyone.

[paul-collins]

4 hours ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

Regional?  Does that definition mean mostly the ROC minus Toronto?

I put that in there as bait for you, JM.

No, by regional, I mean Canada.  Junior hockey doesn't matter outside of Canada either, but is a cash cow for TSN.  But they had to create it.

Contrast to larger products, which networks don't have to do much to promote (especially germane to this discussion is BPL broadcasting).

MLS in its current form, with it being at (at best) Championship level, is a pretty regional product; but with MLS growth, and the necessary increased salary cap, the quality will grow - and it may in time escape what I previously called the "entrenched value judgements" and start to gain a wider audience.

It's when the league quality improves that it will move beyond its geographically-constrained audience.  Participants will become fans as the local product becomes good enough to be considered a league to aspire to play in.

[jpg75]

Ever notice that most threads Trillium starts turn out to be monster dumpster fires?

[Joe MacCarthy]

4 hours ago, paul-collins said:

I put that in there as bait for you, JM.

You don't have to bait me, I'm always right here