Loss of the National Football Stadium

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Was checking out pictures on twitter yesterday during the game and I think something around the 10,000 is probably closer to the mark for actual attendance rather than 5,000 as the lower portions of the west stand were well over half full as was the supporters section, but 15,000 is definitely still a very generous announced number. Will be interesting to see what happens on a cold, windy and rainy day in October when the canopy isn't really getting the job done. This should have been the easiest non-Ticats game for them to sellout given the weekend afternoon timing and takes away any excuses about midweek scheduling being the cause of their woes. 

[Joe MacCarthy]

The attendance has been poor and disappointing so far there is no denying, but the glee that some TFC people have for this is quite sad (cue the usual group)  They should get their heads around the fact that the Argos aren't going anywhere anytime soon, even if next year is as bad as this has been so far. The Grey Cup profits will prop it up and the league needs the market.  Supposedly they need 18k to break even, but the writer is predicting $20 million losses (that stretches the bounds of credulity)

There is a definite disconnect between what goes on in Toronto as popular culture and what happens in the rest of the country.  The high TV numbers by the Jays and the playoff run by the Raps are GTA driven by that huge market.  And as I said in the CFL thread the good attendance numbers of TFC are hurt by the abysmally poor ratings that are averaging 38K so far.  I understand the TV negotiations with TSN are not going well as TSN doesn't want to pay money to televise something people don't want to watch.  Part of that is understandable if we think about it.  What would motivate people in the ROC to watch TFC with teams in Vancouver and Montreal and no team in their area and no long time tradition like the NHL to further it and create a fanbase.  Decent ratings are going to have to be driven by the GTA for TFC.

Just to illustrate the disconnect, my company just had our big bosses down from Toronto.  One was saying when visiting Toronto he could get us Raptor seats in the company suite.  I swear I heard crickets.  He seemed surprised and then said it again, and again no response.  I almost said if they could get Argo tickets I'd go but I knew he had no concept of that idea.  And if some TFC people hadn't have turned me off I might have said TFC but I think that would have gone over his head as well.

[Complete Homer]

16 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

The high TV numbers by the Jays and the playoff run by the Raps are GTA driven by that huge market.

Good post, but to nitpick, I've always encountered a huge number of Jays fans in the west, so I think they have a wider spread than you might think.

[Joe MacCarthy]

14 minutes ago, Complete Homer said:

Good post, but to nitpick, I've always encountered a huge number of Jays fans in the west, so I think they have a wider spread than you might think.

Oh no, I agree with you, but I think proportionally a significant more number of fans jumped on the bandwagon from the GTA. Remember before their playoff run and good form the last few seasons they were below the CFL in national ratings and the Raptors were barely a third (actually much less now that I think about it).  Will they come back to earth or is this a permanent trend, it's hard to tell.

I think when their good form ends the Jays will come back to earth, as for the Raptors, i think they're obviously making big inroads in Toronto but not so much in the ROC.  I think the Jays can lay claim to being "Canada's team" but I don't see that in the Raps. JMO

[Guest]

Here we go again

[Joe MacCarthy]

5 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

While I wish long term success to the CFL and the Argos, if the Argos at BMO Field thing ends in complete and utter failure, I for one will be going out for a celebratory drink.

And that's the part some of us can't understand, I wouldn't wish that on TFC, what would I have to gain?  What does TFC have to gain by Argo failure?  Selfishly getting the tree fort back for exclusive use?  How have the Argos hurt TFC?  Failure or successful the Argos have ZERO bearing on the fortunes of TFC so why the hate, it's totally bizarre and stupid. 

[Joe MacCarthy]

16 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

I am not a TFC fan and there is no hate. I just want our football-specific stadiums to remain that way.

I can understand that but history says it was never meant to be soccer specific.  How it turned out (in it's own roundabout way) is how it was originally intended.  But we've gone through that debate a million times.

TFC fans, think about this.  If the Argos fail, that leaves this market wide open for the NFL.  Can you honestly tell me with a straight face how the non-stop year round NFL coverage/betting/fantasy leagues et al won't crush what little coverage TFC gets.  And if you get no coverage you start to wither on the vine, and that's what the Argos are fighting now, the past years of neglect, (much of it brought on themselves) and now they have to work ten times as hard to repair the damage if that's even possible.

I wouldn't wish a summer/winter NFL/Leafs market on TFC.  And make no mistake, the NFL is a summer league with the BS hype of the draft and training camps.  I've said it before and I'll say it again you've got a big number of sports reporters in Toronto whose biggest wet dream is to eat the free chicken in an NFL press box, will they be sympathetic to TFC or have them on the radar?

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

How have the Argos hurt TFC?  Failure or successful the Argos have ZERO bearing on the fortunes of TFC so why the hate, it's totally bizarre and stupid. 

They took away thousands of seats from BMO and BMO is no longer soccer specific

 

Also, how does fantasy and betting hurt tfc? Nfl fantasy leagues are already way more popular than cfl ones in Canada so its not a big deal

[Joe MacCarthy]

5 minutes ago, canta15 said:

Also, how does fantasy and betting hurt tfc? Nfl fantasy leagues are already way more popular than cfl ones in Canada so its not a big deal

Well, we'll just have to say if the doomsday scenario plays out someday.  If you think the NFL in Toronto won't hurt TFC, I would beg to differ but i know from your time on here before you would disagree with anything I say just on principle.

TFC is the best team in MLS

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

MLS seems to be doing just fine in a lot of NFL markets, so think that's a red herring. If I hold any lingering bitterness over this stuff, it's over the way that the Argos killed the York Stadium deal when as Kevan Pipe put it at the time there was no plan B. They clearly didn't care about soccer then and looked after numero uno, so why should we lose any sleep over them now? What goes around come around in only caring about your own sport. Beyond that if the Argos were likely to actually succeed at BMO Field it would be more difficult to criticize their presence, but it always looked like a doomed venture to me given it is a less favourable location than the Rogers Centre where the TTC is concerned. The only surprise is that they didn't get a few sellouts initally from people who were curious to see what the fuss was all about.

The $20 million thing definitely looks a bit far fetched for a team with a $5 million salary cap, but it's difficult to be sure without seeing the details of the lease. Maybe fixed one-off costs related to their share of the stadium upgrade are factored in on that number and it's where the new ownership will be overall at the end of year one? Even if 18,000 is break even moving forward, they probably only start to generate significant revenue above a certain number where fixed costs start to get covered and will soon be drowning in red ink if they can't move beyond that in terms of paid as opposed to announced attendance. Converting back and forth from soccer to CFL won't be cheap and I seriously doubt MLSE is picking up the tab for that, and MLSE and the City of Toronto will still be getting the stadium naming rights money and a lot of the concessions revenues making it a less favourable stadium deal than elsewhere in the CFL where the CFL tends to be the favoured anchor tenant.

[Joe MacCarthy]

Agree with much of what you said but strangely enough the Argos are saying revenues are up this year.  Whether that means more sponsorships or more high end seat sales or food and beverage sales, I cannot tell you.

The TV money pretty much covers the salary cap and they could see $10 million from the Grey Cup, so everything else is conjecture.

[TFC07]

Argos failure  will prove what many have been saying in GTA for a long time which is CFL isn't that popular in GTA.   The amount of hate for soccer in the media and CFL circle and seeing their Argos failing at BMO field makes it easy for soccer fans living in GTA to show no sympathy for CFL/Argos at all.   Hopefully Argos leave BMO field when it becomes too big and expensive (which it already is to play in).   TFC is only going to get bigger once MLS becomes more respectable league in the world stage.  

 

 

 

 

  

[Joe MacCarthy]

6 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

What goes around come around in only caring about your own sport.

I think the Argos have learned that lesson the hard way, TFC might want to pay attention to that as well.

[Guest]

Seattle has the highest attendance in MLS  (even when having a terrible season) and has one of the most well supported teams in the NFL. But then again what do I know. I am just a bitter TFC fan who disagrees with everything you say because I dislike you not because most of your statements are constant stabs at TFC fans

[Joe MacCarthy]

1 minute ago, TFC07 said:

The amount of hate for soccer in the media and CFL circle and seeing their Argos failing at BMO field makes it easy for soccer fans living in GTA to show no sympathy for CFL/Argos at all.  

Replace the word hate with apathy and you are closer to the truth.  And most CFL "hate" to soccer is reactionary to the hate they get from soccer (primarily TFC).  The CFL has more than enough idiots (as does TFC) to embarrass everybody.

[Joe MacCarthy]

3 minutes ago, canta15 said:

Seattle has the highest attendance in MLS  (even when having a terrible season) and has one of the most well supported teams in the NFL. But then again what do I know. I am just a bitter TFC fan who disagrees with everything you say because I dislike you not because most of your statements are constant stabs at TFC fans

You can disagree with me if you choose but those entities found their niche markets with the NFL already long established. If/when that elephant comes in the room in Toronto, ignore it at your peril.

BTW, regarding TFC fans, I've found them much more reasonable lately as the turf issue has been put to bed so my reactions have been more conciliatory as well.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

I think Larry Tannenbaum is one of the main NFL to Toronto types? I thought the argument was that a healthy and stable Argos was a prerequisite to it happening.

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nfl/how-buying-the-toronto-argos-might-move-the-city-closer-to-obtaining-an-nfl-team-if-not-the-buffalo-bills

Think it's obvious that the Argos won't be allowed to die, because enough people believe that the CFL is a key to national unity that ways will be found to prop them up. If it becomes clear that a stadium in the heart of 416 is not the answer then I suspect a move out to 905 territory somewhere along Highway 407 will be on the cards. If there is one thing that the CFL is good at, it is using temporary seating imaginitively.

[pint]

At what point has the turf issue been put to bed? A few games with no rain in the summer doesn't even come close to putting the turf issues to rest. 

Many could see moving to bmo wouldn't be a solution for the argos, moving the team to Milton or Oshawa would be a solution but for some reason certain people think they need to be a downtown entity. 

[Joe MacCarthy]

3 minutes ago, pint said:

At what point has the turf issue been put to bed? A few games with no rain in the summer doesn't even come close to putting the turf issues to rest.

Well, I know some of the TFC folk can't wait for the moment to say "I told you so" despite what the turf experts at BMO are saying.  I assume they'll keep that stance until some natural disaster does occur, football or not, this year or two years from now.  It's kinda sad and pathetic that they choose to do that. 

[Joe MacCarthy]

7 minutes ago, pint said:

Many could see moving to bmo wouldn't be a solution for the argos,

I don't think we can say that quite yet.  TFC had a few lean years, should they have been written off?

The guys running the Argos are smart, they'll figure out whether this is worth pursuing and they can turn it around or if it is a lost cause.  I believe these guys can sell icicles to Eskimos especially in a market that size.  The fact that they haven't figured it out yet, doesn't bother me.

[pint]

3 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

Well, I know some of the TFC folk can't wait for the moment to say "I told you so" despite what the turf experts at BMO are saying.  I assume they'll keep that stance until some natural disaster does occur, football or not, this year or two years from now.  It's kinda sad and pathetic that they choose to do that. 

Turf experts? Even the project manager of this last phase of construction called the turf an experiment and that's why they have a full field growing for when the field gets bad. 

 

BMO was the lazy option for the argos and it's showing. 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

I don't think we can say that quite yet.  TFC had a few lean years, should they have been written off?

The guys running the Argos are smart, they'll figure out whether this is worth pursuing and they can turn it around or if it is a lost cause.  I believe these guys can sell icicles to Eskimos especially in a market that size.  The fact that they haven't figured it out yet, doesn't bother me.

TFC's lean years don't compare to the Argos inaugural season.

[Joe MacCarthy]

4 minutes ago, canta15 said:

TFC's lean years don't compare to the Argos inaugural season.

Well the point is kinda moot because failing or successful, Bell is gonna protect their investment and the Argos aren't going anywhere soon so I wouldn't get my hopes up.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

So why are you peddling the NFL thing like we are supposed to care? I agree the Argos won't fold, but if the optics of having all the empty seats on TSN broadcasts and/or the financial losses get too bad at BMO Field, they'll look for an alternative and that isn't mission impossible for the league that threw together Empire Field in Vancouver.

[Joe MacCarthy]

You are seriously naive if you don't think the NFL in wannabe Toronto wouldn't be detrimental to TFC, it's not the same as an already established NFL market. You don't think a team in T.O would drive interest up tenfold over what it already is?

Why would they care about the optics of empty seats?  The deal is done, attendance is bad already, the camera tries to avoid it as best they can, just as they have for TFC in the past.  Were the optics bad for TFC?  We're they going to move?

I believe it was you who suggested the Argos try York or Lamport.  The economics won't work in a 10k stadium, maybe they only barely draw above that now but at least they have the ability to host more if something finally catches the imagination of fans.  Why would they move to York or Lamport in a situation that would have them already losing money?