Lurker Posted July 6, 2008 Share Posted July 6, 2008 How many points do you think it's going to take to finish in the top two of the group and move on to the next stage? For example (quickly off the top of my head): Canada 1 Jamaica 0 Canada 2 Honduras 1 Canada 0 Mexico 3 Canada 1 Honduras 1 Canada 1 Mexico 2 Canada 0 Jamaica 0 Do you think 8 points will likely be enough? ---- I apologize if there has already been a similar post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sébastien Posted July 6, 2008 Share Posted July 6, 2008 I think 8 points is unlikely to get us through. I would go for 10 as a garantee to get through. Get 3 wins and we're in the driver seat IMO. That is why winning the home matches (specially the first two) will be so important, as will be stealing points in either Jamaica or Honduras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeta Posted July 6, 2008 Share Posted July 6, 2008 Depends how Mexico does really. If they run away with it and don't dink around in their last couple of matches 8 should be fine. I'd say 9 is a safe number no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Well there's a max of 36 points (12 games X 3), so it really all depends how many draws there are. If there's none, then 12 gets you in (or 9 with a good goal differential). If there's 4 ties (which I would say is about the average), 9-10 should be good enough. If there's a lot of ties even 7 or 8 may be good enough to squeak into 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 quote:Originally posted by theaub Well there's a max of 36 points (12 games X 3), so it really all depends how many draws there are. If there's none, then 12 gets you in (or 9 with a good goal differential). If there's 4 ties (which I would say is about the average), 9-10 should be good enough. If there's a lot of ties even 7 or 8 may be good enough to squeak into 2nd. We play 6 not 12 games, so there is a max of 18 EDIT: Or did you mean the entire group, that makes more sense now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 I mean for the entire group, not just for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Semi-final teams (1-2-3) from 2006: 12-8-7/10-10-7/18-12-6 (last is are the easy group) Same from 2002: 15-13-5/15-12-9/11-10-10, with two teams at 10pts playing off So 10 points usually gets you through and ES, who raked up 9 and didn't make it in 2002, got two wins once they were eliminated. Win 3 home games and steal a point is usually the way to go, although 6-4 is also possible, if harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derosario23 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 I say Eight points if we screw up in TO against Jamaica kiss the world cup good bye because this is the hardest group in CONCACAF.. soo we loose the first we will need some luck to get through in fact if we loose either of the first two forget it because one has to asume we will either draw or loose away from home so! I hope I am wrong though :S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaeltfc91 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 I say we win the first 2 games which are winnable (at home to Jamaica and at home to Honduras)and we'll go through. Thats 6, then steal a couple points along the way and get one more unlikely win and were in. to get in forsure you need 13 points (4wins, 1tie, 1loss) 10-12 is a maybe to advance 7-9 means its not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 If we get 6 leaving Montreal we'll have to have a New York Met style choke to not get in, unless Jamaica/Honduras beat Mexico or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegan Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 I can see us winning any of our matches. None are out of reach. THE BOYS NEED TO WANT IT! We can win in Mexico ffs and we can just as easily lose to Jamaica at home and win on the road. People are putting WAY TOO MUCH emphasis on home field advantage and winning home games, I am confident our boys can win anywhere just look at last cycle where we could have come away with all 3 on the road to Honduras. Where Honduras had a stronger squad and we had a much weaker squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegan Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 quote:Originally posted by theaub If we get 6 leaving Montreal we'll have to have a New York Met style choke to not get in, unless Jamaica/Honduras beat Mexico or something. Not true at all man. That would mean we won 2 home games, Jamaica and Honduras could just as easily do that and both have 6 points also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Come on guys let's stop being realistic and start being fans! You heard it here first: Team........W-D-L-Pts Canada......6-0-0-18 Mexico......3-1-2-10 Honduras...1-1-4-4 Jamaica......1-0-5-3 Julian de Guzman takes his game to yet another level and the rest of the team follows suit to dominate all games save a 2-1 squeaker in Chiapas, with JDG scoring an injury time winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denis Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Why does everyone here seem to think we can’t get a win on the road and that our only hope is through home wins against Honduras and Jamaica? I understand the sentiment that a home loss to Jamaica could be a confidence crusher, which may potentially undermine the whole tournament. However I really don’t believe that would be a certainty. Unlike the last time around, we have better squad of pro’s who have the skill and toughness to bounce back from a loss and get wins on the road if needed. Remember the loss against Guadeloupe. Two freak/lucky goals against the run of play. It could happen again, but as we saw in the Gold Cup the skill and determination was there to get us through. Remember this is not the same team that lost to the Guats last 4 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianTraveller Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 quote:Originally posted by denis Why does everyone here seem to think we can’t get a win on the road and that our only hope is through home wins against Honduras and Jamaica? I understand the sentiment that a home loss to Jamaica could be a confidence crusher, which may potentially undermine the whole tournament. However I really don’t believe that would be a certainty. x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 quote:Originally posted by Keegan Not true at all man. That would mean we won 2 home games, Jamaica and Honduras could just as easily do that and both have 6 points also I would say losing the next four games (which would be how we wouldn't get in probably), would constitute quite the choke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted July 7, 2008 Author Share Posted July 7, 2008 I'd say Canada is the best road team in this group because the opposition support at their home games makes them better prepared. At the same time they don't get the home advantage the other teams do. Regardless the game is won on the pitch, not in the stands. 10 points it is! (8 if we're lucky...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmcmurph Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 Canada 2 Jamaica 0 Canada 2 Honduras 1 Canada 1 Mexico 2 Canada 1 Honduras 1 Canada 2 Mexico 2 Canada 2 Jamaica 0 11 points for Canada and we are in! Scottie I love your attitude [8D] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearcatSA Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 quote:Originally posted by denis Why does everyone here seem to think we can’t get a win on the road and that our only hope is through home wins against Honduras and Jamaica? I understand the sentiment that a home loss to Jamaica could be a confidence crusher, which may potentially undermine the whole tournament. However I really don’t believe that would be a certainty. Unlike the last time around, we have better squad of pro’s who have the skill and toughness to bounce back from a loss and get wins on the road if needed. Remember the loss against Guadeloupe. Two freak/lucky goals against the run of play. It could happen again, but as we saw in the Gold Cup the skill and determination was there to get us through. Remember this is not the same team that lost to the Guats last 4 years ago. I think this squad has an excellent chance of winning on the road, let alone earning ties. However, it all depends on whether or not the team is playing to its full capabilities, starting with the first match: if we don't and start this WCQ in the same results fashion as we did in the last campaign with a loss and a tie at home, I think it will be an uphill struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denis Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 quote:Originally posted by BearcatSA I think this squad has an excellent chance of winning on the road, let alone earning ties. However, it all depends on whether or not the team is playing to its full capabilities, starting with the first match: if we don't and start this WCQ in the same results fashion as we did in the last campaign with a loss and a tie at home, I think it will be an uphill struggle. Yes, I some what agree with this. However the difference between now and 04 is that, that team lost even when it was playing to its full capabilities. However this team can choak for one game and still have the ability to bounce back. There are 6 games to take points from and if we play can't get it togather and win at least half of them (or even win 2 and draw 2) then I guess we don't belong in the hex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearcatSA Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 quote:Originally posted by denis Yes, I some what agree with this. However the difference between now and 04 is that, that team lost even when it was playing to its full capabilities. However this team can choak for one game and still have the ability to bounce back. There are 6 games to take points from and if we play can't get it togather and win at least half of them (or even win 2 and draw 2) then I guess we don't belong in the hex. Though my recollections are getting foggy I felt we never came close to hitting on all cylinders until the first half of the return leg vs CR at Swangard (the second half was a different story, however). I do agree that this is a veteran side that has proven to me that it can bounce back. Unfortunately, if we are in a hole after the first two games we have to play the third match away to Mexico (though I certainly think this current squad is the one that can steal a result on Mexican soil). That said, I'm more curious to see if DM shakes up player selection if we don't achieve the results we hoped for in the first two games: if a player isn't cutting it will DM drop him or try to maintain team continuity and persist him playing him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueviking Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 we will beat honduras twice and jamaica once....hopefully we can manage one more point out of the remaining three games...mexico will lose at least one game, so i think 10 will be the threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 I like our draw - we win the first two at home and we are in a very good position. Anything less than 6 points in the first 2 games, and we have problems. I like our chances of getting at least a tie in Edmonton against Mexico. This means we would need a win or probably 2 ties on the road to advance. Definitely doable. Besides, if we can't beat out Jamaica and Honduras, Canada doesn't deserve to make it to South Africa. It just so happened we have to beat them now instead of in the hex. Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ob1 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 The Canadian way It doesn’t matter how good we are or how bad we have been, it will come down to the very last game, and we will need our calculators in one hand and beers in the other. Along the way there will be intense highs and demoralizing lows. Someone on this forum will have a heart attack, another will lose his job and get divorced, new friendships will be forged, and most will go through weeks of depression, then experience happiness and joy, followed by depression followed by happiness. Never mind predicting the first 5 games it’s all about the last one Canada 2 - Jamaica 1 Canada moves on, Mexico will not That’s the Canadian way lol sorry we play Jamaica last don't we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duane Rollins1555362254 Posted July 7, 2008 Share Posted July 7, 2008 I'll feel safe when we have 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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