Concacaf Launches New Club Ranking System

[narduch]

I guess they needed to for seeding the new Champions League format. 

 

More info:

https://www.concacaf.com/news/concacaf-launches-new-ranking-system-for-region-s-clubs-and-leagues/

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by narduch

[Watchmen]

CPL clubs are about to get screwed.  No entrance to one of the 3 competitions everyone else will be in:

How does the new Concacaf club ranking system work?

As a starting point for the new ranking, the region’s men’s clubs have been ranked based on their results since 2017 in the following official international and domestic club competitions:

• Concacaf Champions League
• Concacaf Regional Cups (Leagues Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup)
• Domestic first division professional league
• Member Association Cups (which qualify for Concacaf competitions)
• FIFA Club World Cup

[Ansem]

I would expect CONCACAF to address it - surely CPL will take the issue to them. While it is an MLS-Liga MX event, this is still a CONCACAF sanctioned event with CCL berth attached to it. If CONCACAF wills it, it will happen.

[Watchmen]

4 minutes ago, Ansem said:

I would expect CONCACAF to address it - surely CPL will take the issue to them. While it is an MLS-Liga MX event, this is still a CONCACAF sanctioned event with CCL berth attached to it. If CONCACAF wills it, it will happen.

In what manner do you think they'll be addressing it? You think Victor didn't already point out to them the CPL loses out here? I'm more of the opinion they're aware and don't care, but I guess we'll see.

[Ansem]

5 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

In what manner do you think they'll be addressing it? You think Victor didn't already point out to them the CPL loses out here? I'm more of the opinion they're aware and don't care, but I guess we'll see.

The League Cup predates CONCACAF sanctioning it and including it into a club rank system. While discussing CPL joining it wasn't really relevant back then, it will now that points and ranking are on the line. You can't have CPL being the only league excluded from a regional cup otherwise there's an obvious flaw in the ranking system

Edited May 16, 2023 by Ansem

[Watchmen]

6 minutes ago, Ansem said:

The League Cup predates CONCACAF sanctioning it and including it into a club rank system. While discussing CPL joining it wasn't really relevant back then, it will now that points and ranking are on the line. You can't have CPL being the only league excluded from a regional cup otherwise there's an obvious flaw in the ranking system

I agree, it's a flawed ranking system. I just don't think they care. If they did, I think they would have addressed it here. Victor wouldn't be blind to the flaw.

[Ansem]

3 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I agree, it's a flawed ranking system. I just don't think they care. If they did, I think they would have addressed it here. Victor wouldn't be blind to the flaw.

Logically, it's too late for this season and the next might be a bit short notice since you need to get a sense of the schedules from all leagues but I think that eventually this gets address. The league cup is unique as this is an MLS/Liga MX organized tournament so this could take time as you'd want to find an agreement instead of forcing anything upon them.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Ansem

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

24 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

CPL clubs are about to get screwed...

That's been obvious for a while but some people on here were determined to spin automatic CONCACAF Champions League entry as being something other than a sop for being sidelined from the Leagues Cup.

[Watchmen]

12 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Logically, it's too late for this season and the next might be a bit short notice since you need to get a sense of the schedules from all leagues but I think that eventually this gets address. The league cup is unique as this is an MLS/Liga MX organized tournament so this could take time as you'd want to find an agreement instead of forcing anything upon them.

Will be interesting to see peoples reaction on here if CPL is included (and it would be forced upon MLS/Liga MX), considered how many have said they hate the tournament (for reasons beyond the CPL not being admitted).

[Kent]

From here: https://www.concacaf.com/news/how-does-the-concacaf-club-ranking-system-work/

"Domestic cups (US Open and Canadian Championship)"

So from @Watchmen's original comment...

• Concacaf Champions League
• Concacaf Regional Cups (Leagues Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup)
• Domestic first division professional league
• Member Association Cups (which qualify for Concacaf competitions)
• FIFA Club World Cup

The Member Association Cups portion only applies to MLS and CPL teams. So there is a bit of MLS boosting in that they get Leagues Cup + US Open/Canadian Championship, but every other league gets 1 of CONCACAF Regional Cups or Member Association Cups. Of course they didn't tell us how these are weighted though, so we don't know if it's just as valuable to do well in the Canadian Championship as it is the Caribbean Cup, or Central American Cup, etc.

Anyways, I'm excited to see this news! A bit disappointed they don't give enough information to see exactly how it's calculated, but I'm excited that they say it will be updated regularly, and even mentioned "week to week". I am more than happy to stop having to calculate this kind of info and just look it up, so the only reason for wanting to see exactly how it's calculated is to see how fair it is or isn't.

[Kent]

1 minute ago, Watchmen said:

Will be interesting to see peoples reaction on here if CPL is included (and it would be forced upon MLS/Liga MX), considered how many have said they hate the tournament (for reasons beyond the CPL not being admitted).

Yeah, if CPL joins the Leagues Cup it will force me to care about a competition I'd rather not have to bother caring about. I'm able to not care about it while still being a TFC fan, but I won't be able to dismiss it if CPL's reputation is on the line.

[Kent]

OK, more of a breakdown to see what is in front of the CPL (and other non-Liga MX and MLS teams) in order to move up the leagues ranking list.

The new Champions League format has 22 teams entering in the first round. Assuming MLS teams win the Canadian Championship and US Open Cup, 13 of those 22 teams will come from Liga MX and MLS. The top 38 ranked clubs at the moment all come from Liga MX or MLS. There are only 9 Liga MX or MLS teams below Olimpia (the highest ranked team from outside Liga MX or MLS). There are only 3 teams (Olimpia, Saprissa, Communicaciones) ahead of any MLS teams (and nobody outside of MLS ahead of any Liga MX team, although Olimpia is just 1 point behind the worst Liga MX team).

This seems to indicate that more than likely, the 11 teams in the top pot for the first round will all be Liga MX and MLS teams. Meaning if you are a Central American, Caribbean, or CPL team, your first round match up will be against a team from one of those 2 leagues and you will need a sizable upset to move on, or make any ground in the league and club rankings.

3 of the 5 teams to enter in the second round (round of 16) will also be Liga MX or MLS teams. So if you upset an MLS or Liga MX team in the first round, you have about a 2 in 8 chance (assuming draw is done based on ranking points again and teams entering in that round are given a pot 1 spot, 2 in 15 chance if it's just a straight up draw) of facing a non-Liga MX or MLS team in the second round (better chances if there is another upset in the first round).

So it's going to be tough for leagues to move up the rankings I think since everyone will be measured by how they do against the 2 big dogs, rather than how they do against each other.

P.S. Yes, I do think MLS and Liga MX got too many spots. CPL probably got the right amount. Central America definitely got too few. And I'd like to see the 4 team group stage come back some day to get a bit more variety in opponents, and a bigger reward for qualifying to the CCL.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Kent

[Kingston]

19 minutes ago, Kent said:

And I'd like to see the 4 team group stage come back some day to get a bit more variety in opponents, and a bigger reward for qualifying to the CCL.

I especially like this idea.

[Ansem]

On 5/17/2023 at 2:45 PM, Kent said:

OK, more of a breakdown to see what is in front of the CPL (and other non-Liga MX and MLS teams) in order to move up the leagues ranking list.

The new Champions League format has 22 teams entering in the first round. Assuming MLS teams win the Canadian Championship and US Open Cup, 13 of those 22 teams will come from Liga MX and MLS. The top 38 ranked clubs at the moment all come from Liga MX or MLS. There are only 9 Liga MX or MLS teams below Olimpia (the highest ranked team from outside Liga MX or MLS). There are only 3 teams (Olimpia, Saprissa, Communicaciones) ahead of any MLS teams (and nobody outside of MLS ahead of any Liga MX team, although Olimpia is just 1 point behind the worst Liga MX team).

This seems to indicate that more than likely, the 11 teams in the top pot for the first round will all be Liga MX and MLS teams. Meaning if you are a Central American, Caribbean, or CPL team, your first round match up will be against a team from one of those 2 leagues and you will need a sizable upset to move on, or make any ground in the league and club rankings.

3 of the 5 teams to enter in the second round (round of 16) will also be Liga MX or MLS teams. So if you upset an MLS or Liga MX team in the first round, you have about a 2 in 8 chance (assuming draw is done based on ranking points again and teams entering in that round are given a pot 1 spot, 2 in 15 chance if it's just a straight up draw) of facing a non-Liga MX or MLS team in the second round (better chances if there is another upset in the first round).

So it's going to be tough for leagues to move up the rankings I think since everyone will be measured by how they do against the 2 big dogs, rather than how they do against each other.

P.S. Yes, I do think MLS and Liga MX got too many spots. CPL probably got the right amount. Central America definitely got too few. And I'd like to see the 4 team group stage come back some day to get a bit more variety in opponents, and a bigger reward for qualifying to the CCL.

Great analysis.

I would add this too

• Forge should climb up pretty fast and they are only 34 points behind TFC. Since they are so dominant in this league and MLS clubs above them are more likely to fluctuate due to the parity of the league, Forge could pass a few of them, same for Olimpia who are just dominant too and end up higher over time than people expect

Example below with Ajax while Benfica is at #17

 

• Nothing in the rules says winning in MLS or Liga MX is worth more than winning in other leagues

• Since MLS is a parity league, you might see MLS clubs ranked much lower in CONCACAF make the CCL over higher ranked MLS club making draws potentially unpredictable and exciting. An Olimpia or Forge in a few year could consistently rank higher than a bunch from Mexico or MLS

• Yes, Central America got screwed big time here and in the meantime that's more MLS and Liga MX clubs who can rack up points but also lose lots of points with the CCL X10 multiplier.

• CPL being the only league without a regional cup competition does create an inequality that will eventually be addressed.

• I think eventually, concacaf will go back to the group stage. The confederation has steadily tried to emulate UEFA with the Nations League, Women's club competition and continental cup, now a league + club ranking... It's just a trend that keeps reinforcing that a true Champions League where the actual champions are seeded in groups while the other spots are redistributed according to the league's ranking will come eventually.

• I don't like the idea of regional cups and hoping for Concacaf league to return where also MLS and Liga MX runner with all domestic cup winners can qualify for that competition. A secondary cup is the best formula to expose the best clubs of weaker leagues to medium or lower clubs from stronger leagues like Europa & Sudamericana are doing. It's a better formula to raise the level across the confederation. I think Violette would eliminate TFC🤣

[SpursFlu]

Vancouver fc the worst team in Concacaf. I demand a recount!

[Kingston]

20 hours ago, Ansem said:

• Since MLS is a parity league, you might see MLS clubs ranked much lower in CONCACAF make the CCL over higher ranked MLS club making draws potentially unpredictable and exciting. An Olimpia or Forge in a few year could consistently rank higher than a bunch from Mexico or MLS

Whether this is useful or not depends on whether the goal of the rankings is to show the relative strength of a team across the confederation or to show the relative strength of a team primarily inside its domestic structure.

[RJB]

Is there an equation to this?  I can understand that better. 

[Kent]

2 hours ago, RJB said:

Is there an equation to this?  I can understand that better. 

Yes, and no.

The club ranking formula is here: https://www.concacaf.com/news/how-does-the-concacaf-club-ranking-system-work/

"Update score: old score + F*(Result – Expected Result)
F = competition weight factor, ranging from 10 (CCL) to 5 (Regional Cup) to 2.5 (domestic league/cup)
Result = 1 for a win, 0 for a draw, and -1 for a loss
Expected Result = score between 1 and -1, based upon ranking scores and venue, to incorporate home advantage"

However, there is no formula given to us for calculating the "Expected Result".

The League ranking is even more murky. This is all they mention.

"This system operates similarly to the club ranking. Each league has its score, and when clubs from different leagues participate in international matches, the expectation is based on their respective league scores. They are competing against each other using their league scores.

It's important to note that only international matches contribute to this ranking, with the Concacaf Champions League (CCL) being twice as crucial as regional cup matches."