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Not to be pessimistic... but tie-breakers?


dyslexic nam

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Great game last night. Very well played aside from a couple of lapses at both ends of the pitch. Nice possesion footie, and a number of great individual efforts.

Maybe it is because I have been disappointed too many times, but a small, negative part of me is wondering if we will rue last night's missed chances. Bernier's was the most obvious, but Hutch could have diverted a cross into the net pretty easilly and there were a couple more that might have been converted from the wings. So my questions are:

- Is it the top two from each group that advances? I assumed this was the case, but some of the comments in the game commentary thread seem to indicate otherwise. Basically, did we or did we not ensure that we advance with last night's win?

- If we did not clinch advancement, what is the tie break used to determine advancement? If ES were to beat Jamaica (reasonable, since Jam will have nothing to play for) and CR were to beat Canada (hopefully not, but it is plausible), everyone but Jam would have 6 points. If only the top two advance, then a tie break would be required. If it is goals scored, we would be in trouble since we only have 2 goals from our only two wins (remember, this is contemplating tie-breaks, so the assumption is that we lose against CR), and both ES and CR have 2 goals from their first two matches, which include their losses. If a tie-break is required, it seems pretty likely that we would have the fewest goals scored. Our goal differential also isn't great since out 2 wins have been by a one-goal margin, the slimmest margin of victory possible.

Anyway, not trying to take the shine off another win by the lads. But like I said, when i saw a couple of the misses last night, that part of me that has been disappointed in the past started wondering if we would regret being a bit too generous in front of the ES goal.

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In summary:

- The top two 3rd place teams also advance to the quarterfinals.

- Technically we are not yet through, since we could still finish as the worst 3rd place finisher. However, the chances of this are extremely remote. I think any single draw in any remaining game would put us through (as would lots of other scenarios).

- Tie-breakers: goal differential, then goals scored.

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Loyola: good point - I never thought about that. Hopefully they can get it together and help us out.

And thanks for the link Lurker. So by my read, we didn't technically clinch a spot in the next stage since we are still waiting on results from the other groups. Having said that, even with a loss and the lowest goal differential in our group's potential 3-way tie for 1st, we are still in a good position with two wins. So even with a loss to CR, we would be going through barring a number of specific and very unlucky (for us) results. N'est pas?

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quote:Originally posted by dyslexic nam

Loyola: good point - I never thought about that. Hopefully they can get it together and help us out.

And thanks for the link Lurker. So by my read, we didn't technically clinch a spot in the next stage since we are still waiting on results from the other groups. Having said that, even with a loss and the lowest goal differential in our group's potential 3-way tie for 1st, we are still in a good position with two wins. So even with a loss to CR, we would be going through barring a number of specific and very unlucky (for us) results. N'est pas?

In my opinion we are through. Take a read through this: http://www.concacaf.com/graphics/stats-regs/pdf/GoldCupRegs.pdf

Page 15 lists the tie-breakers for the 2009 Gold Cup.

At the end of group play, if two or more teams are equal on points

(including ties among third place teams), the manner in which teams will advance to the next round will be resolved as follows and in the order indicated:

a. Greater number of points in matches between the tied teams.

b. Greater Goal Difference in matches between the tied teams (if

more than two teams finish equal on points).

c. Greater number of goals scored in matches among the tied teams

(if more than two teams finish equal on points).

d. Greater Goal Difference in all group matches.

e. Greater number of goals scored in all group matches.

f. Drawing of lots.

By this logic, even if El Salvador finishes even with Canada on 6 points we would win any head-to-head tie-breaker based on criteria (a).

Can someone please take a look and confirm that I am not crazy? Thanks!

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quote:Originally posted by Tonka

In my opinion we are through. Take a read through this: http://www.concacaf.com/graphics/stats-regs/pdf/GoldCupRegs.pdf

Page 15 lists the tie-breakers for the 2009 Gold Cup.

At the end of group play, if two or more teams are equal on points

(including ties among third place teams), the manner in which teams will advance to the next round will be resolved as follows and in the order indicated:

a. Greater number of points in matches between the tied teams.

b. Greater Goal Difference in matches between the tied teams (if

more than two teams finish equal on points).

c. Greater number of goals scored in matches among the tied teams

(if more than two teams finish equal on points).

d. Greater Goal Difference in all group matches.

e. Greater number of goals scored in all group matches.

f. Drawing of lots.

By this logic, even if El Salvador finishes even with Canada on 6 points we would win any head-to-head tie-breaker based on criteria (a).

Can someone please take a look and confirm that I am not crazy? Thanks!

If CR beat us 3-0 and then El Salvador win 3-0 over Jamaica, I think we would finish 3rd in our group. That would be 3 teams tied with 6 pts and paragraph (a) wouldn't help because all teams would 1 W and 1 L . So you have to move to (B) and that would mean we would finish 3rd.

Then we would have to wait for the other groups results.

It's pretty safe to say we're through but there's still a possibility of going out early...

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If Canada loses, I think either Haiti or Grenada would have to win two straight to really disturb things. Meanwhile Grenada's goal difference is already -4, while Haiti has yet to play USA. And if it was Grenada, they would have to beat Honduras, and then suddenly Honduras is in the mix. One has to really go thru every possible outcome...

Actually the concacaf matchtracker of the Canada/ES game ended by declaring Canada as the first thru to the next round.. But I don't see how it as a complete done deal. I don't see anywhere else where they claim that.

Matchtracker:

http://concacaf.globalsportsmedia.com/page.php?sport=soccer&language_id=us&page=tournament&view=match&match_id=769379

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We are guaranteed second based on criteria (a). Should CR beat us, they would have the tie-breaker based on criteria (a).

Basically, head-to-head, if that's even, then you follow the remaining tie-breaking steps.

Thus, no point in discussing if we are third. It can't happen unless they change the rules!!!!

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quote:Originally posted by bettermirror

We are guaranteed second based on criteria (a). Should CR beat us, they would have the tie-breaker based on criteria (a).

Basically, head-to-head, if that's even, then you follow the remaining tie-breaking steps.

Thus, no point in discussing if we are third. It can't happen unless they change the rules!!!!

Nope.

"(if more than two teams finish equal on points).

d. Greater Goal Difference in all group matches.

e. Greater number of goals scored in all group matches.

f. Drawing of lots.

"

All that's required for Canada to finish third is a 1-nil loss to CR and ES winning by any score over Jamaica.

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quote:Originally posted by loyola

Jamaica has everything to play for...with a win over El Salvador they could still finish second in the group (if Canada win against CR).

Yup. And the way Group "B" is shaping-up, it looks like 3 teams will advance from Group "A" so a win pretty much guarantees a spot in the QFs for Jamaica.

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The only way we can't make it is if all the groups finish with a three way tie for first on 6 points (and Canada drops to third in the group on tiebreakers and then losses a drawing of lots). This can't happen if there is a draw in any of the remaining group games (Canada's last game included). So far there's been 8 games without a draw and 10 group games remain. I'm willing to bet the house there will be a draw at some point in the group phase.

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Let me put it this way. In order for the third-place team in Group B to get six points, either Grenada would have to beat Haiti and Honduras or Haiti would have to beat Grenada and the United States.

Forget the more complicated scenarios. There's no way either of those things are happening.

(Besides, as has been observed, the tie-breaking rules seem to have guaranteed us at least second anyway.)

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Would LOVE for us to sweep our group like only a true CONCACAF power can

Even the US and Mexico have trouble sweeping their groups. Mexico only won last group game last time actually. It would definitely look good on our boys if they did and would go a long way towards making up for their WCQ performance.

edit: Mexico won two games my bad, I just remember my mexican roommate upset about the Cuba game so I figured they drew.

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quote:Originally posted by Lord Bob

(Besides, as has been observed, the tie-breaking rules seem to have guaranteed us at least second anyway.)

Not true, as amacpher pointed out. If we lose to Costa Rica by a 1-0 score or by 2 goals or more, and El Salvador beats Jamaica by any score, we finish third, which is why it would have been nice to finish our chances last night and win by a couple (the drawing of lots would be a mathematical impossibility, because it would be impossible for all 3 teams to have the same differential AND same number of goals for based on the current standings). But also, as has been pointed out by many others, it's going to almost impossible to not be one of the top two third place teams, so we're through anyway.

Of course, winning or tying and taking first is the most ideal scenario, because then we get an easier opponent in the quarter-finals and therefore an easier path to the semis.

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quote:Originally posted by bettermirror

bah, we'll beat TICOS!

Would that be the first time Canada won all 3 group games?

It would be. Although this is already the first time in Gold Cup history that we have won our first two games in the tourney.

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quote:Originally posted by Lord Bob

(Besides, as has been observed, the tie-breaking rules seem to have guaranteed us at least second anyway.)

Well, because Canada won both their matches 1-nil they have the worst possible goal differential that a team with 6 points can have. So they would probably lose any 3-way tiebreaker and finish third. But I don't see a tiebreaker being necessary...

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In all honesty, I almost think a 2nd place finish would give us a more favorable quarter-final match-up. Assuming USA and Mexico win their groups and Honduras finishes second in group B, if we win our group, we play Honduras in the quarters. Honduras is beatable for sure, but not as easy as if we finish second, and play Guadaloupe, Panama, or Nicaragua. Third would suck, because that would mean playing the US or Mexico in the quarters.

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quote:Originally posted by amacpher

Well, because Canada won both their matches 1-nil they have the worst possible goal differential that a team with 6 points can have. So they would probably lose any 3-way tiebreaker and finish third. But I don't see a tiebreaker being necessary...

Worst possible goal differential AND worst possible goals for that a team with 6-points can have. Costa Rica and El Salvador already have 2 goals despite being 1-1 by virtue of their 2-1 game, as opposed to our 1-0 game.

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quote:Originally posted by nafnikufesin

In all honesty, I almost think a 2nd place finish would give us a more favorable quarter-final match-up. Assuming USA and Mexico win their groups and Honduras finishes second in group B, if we win our group, we play Honduras in the quarters. Honduras is beatable for sure, but not as easy as if we finish second, and play Guadaloupe, Panama, or Nicaragua. Third would suck, because that would mean playing the US or Mexico in the quarters.

Finishing second is risky though because it could mean a date with Mexico in Texas in front of 50,000 Mexicans! Yeah, that would require Guadeloupe to win Group "C", but I wouldn't rule that possibility out.

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quote:Originally posted by nafnikufesin

Worst possible goal differential AND worst possible goals for that a team with 6-points can have. Costa Rica and El Salvador already have 2 goals despite being 1-1 by virtue of their 2-1 game, as opposed to our 1-0 game.

nafnikufesin; the FIRST tie-breaker is HEAD-TO-HEAD. We beat El Salvador thus if we finished tied on points with them we have the tie-breaker. It's clearly stated above as tie-breaker "a".

The only time it becomes an issue is if CR, ES, and Can finish on 6 points, then we could drop to third....which to me makes no sense! The tie-breaker should still be head-to-head, but whatever.

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