CONCACAF League and Champions League Club Indexes

[Kent]

Updated the original post with this week's champions league results. Both finalists are from Mexico, so Mexico's streak of winning the CCL every year continues. Next week CONCACAF League is back in action, including Forge against Independiente (Panama).

[Kent]

Updated with last night's games (and last week's games, which I hadn't updated yet).

Forge's result last night put CAN2 into the top pot for the time being! They will definitely still be there after this round, but aren't assured to be there after the competition is over. Plus, keep in mind that CONCACAF can just randomly decide to put a Caribbean team in the top pot and push us out or some such nonsense. I don't know how that works. Either way, it's great to see us climbing the ladder!

A note on the revamped CCL coming in a couple years. I'm guessing this will change a lot. I assume they will still use some sort of index for seeding teams, but I think with clubs coming from international competitions (MLS, Leagues Cup, the Central American one, and the Caribbean one) there will be slots for each competition, rather than for countries, with the possible exception of the US Open Cup, Canadian Championship, and Canadian Premier League slots. They might still be something like USA1, CAN1, 2, and 3.

[Kent]

Updated with last night's results. 2 Guatemalan, 2 Costa Rican, 2 Honduran, and 1 Canadian team left.

[Kent]

I just noticed a problem. For some reason it is showing CRC3 with only 3 points in this year's column. Not sure how the value changed when copying from one place to another. I'll have to look into that and make any other corrections when I get a chance.

[Kent]

OK, it's fixed now. Always double check you have all your $'s in your formulas!

Unfortunately the problem wasn't unique to today, and the problem caused me to be incorrect about CAN2's place in the top pot. We have been knocked down to the second pot. Of course the difference between being in the top pot and out of the top pot happens to be the single phantom point CONCACAF gave to HON2 that I can't account for.

[Kent]

Updated with this week's results. Forge needs a win in their next game both to have a chance of staying alive in the competition, and also for CAN2 to climb into the top pot (for the time being at least).

[Kent]

Finally updated with this week's results. CAN2 is in the top pot for the time being! Comunicaciones is right behind us in the GUA3 pot, so CAN2 could still be overtaken if Comunicaciones outperforms Forge the rest of the way by more than a point.

[Kent]

I finally got around to updating the original post with this week's results. Guastatoya hasn't won a game yet in this competition, but are only one win away (plus a shootout if the win is 1-0) from the final, which is crazy. They had a bye in the first round, got 2 draws in the second round and went through on away goals, then got a forfeit win in the quarter finals due to the Suriname bribery scandal.

[Kent]

The final for CONCACAF League is set. I've updated the rankings. CAN2 is tied with CRC1, and CONCACAF has never stated what their tie breaker criteria is, so I don't know for sure which pot Canada's slot will be in for the next CONCACAF League. It should be one of the top 2 pots though, skipping the play in round. We find out on Saturday if it will be Forge taking the spot again, or if Pacific will make their CONCACAF debut.

[narduch]

3 minutes ago, Kent said:

The final for CONCACAF League is set. I've updated the rankings. CAN2 is tied with CRC1, and CONCACAF has never stated what their tie breaker criteria is, so I don't know for sure which pot Canada's slot will be in for the next CONCACAF League. It should be one of the top 2 pots though, skipping the play in round. We find out on Saturday if it will be Forge taking the spot again, or if Pacific will make their CONCACAF debut.

I wonder if Canada would forgo the Preliminary Round now.

[Kent]

12 hours ago, narduch said:

I wonder if Canada would forgo the Preliminary Round now.

I might have just cracked (most of) the CONCACAF code! I just looked at the potting from this current CONCACAF League which confused me so much earlier. I think I have determined some rules they have for determining pots. Here is what I believe to be true (unless they change the rules, cause CONCACAF).

1. HON1, SLV1, CRC1, PAN1, NCA1, GUA1, CCC2 are guaranteed to be placed in pot 3 or 4. Remember that Pot 3 is the best pot, Pot 4 is the second best pot. Teams in these pots avoid the preliminary round.

2. A lower numbered slot for a country can't be in a better pot than higher numbered slot. Ex: CRC3 can't go in a better pot than CRC2, even if their index is higher. However, CRC3 can go in a better pot than another countries second slot, like GUA2.

3. A country can't have 3 slots in Pot 3 + Pot 4. So slots like CRC3, HON3, cannot be in one of these top 2 pots.

There could be more unwritten rules, but this is what makes sense based on where teams were slotted for the 2021 tournament. What does this mean for Canada? With the 7 slots mentioned in rule number 1 above guaranteed spots in pots 3 and 4, that means there are 3 more spots available in those pots. As per rule number 3 above, teams like CRC3, HON3, etc can't take those spots. The best of the rest according to my index calculations is HON2, CAN2, and PAN2. If I am right about all this, then I think the pots will be like this:

Ordered from the best pot to the worst pot.

Pot 3 - HON1, HON2, CRC1, CAN2, PAN1, PAN2, NCA1, SLV1

Pot 4 - CCC2, GUA1

Pot 1 - HON3, PAN3, SLV2, SLV3, CCC3, CRC2

Pot 2 - CRC3, NCA2, CCC4, GUA2, GUA3, BLZ1

If I am right about this, it's great for Canada! Of course it is also ridiculous that the slot with the best CONCACAF Index BY FAR (CRC3) is put in the bottom pot.

[Trois Reds]

@KentWhat makes your observation look worse is that 5 of the top 7 team coefficients (Can2 is 9th) are CRC3, Hon3, Pan3, ES3, and Gua3. All of them will probably have to play in the first round.

Of course, that's not our issue. 😏

[narduch]

On 12/2/2021 at 10:12 PM, Kent said:

I might have just cracked (most of) the CONCACAF code! I just looked at the potting from this current CONCACAF League which confused me so much earlier. I think I have determined some rules they have for determining pots. Here is what I believe to be true (unless they change the rules, cause CONCACAF).

1. HON1, SLV1, CRC1, PAN1, NCA1, GUA1, CCC2 are guaranteed to be placed in pot 3 or 4. Remember that Pot 3 is the best pot, Pot 4 is the second best pot. Teams in these pots avoid the preliminary round.

2. A lower numbered slot for a country can't be in a better pot than higher numbered slot. Ex: CRC3 can't go in a better pot than CRC2, even if their index is higher. However, CRC3 can go in a better pot than another countries second slot, like GUA2.

3. A country can't have 3 slots in Pot 3 + Pot 4. So slots like CRC3, HON3, cannot be in one of these top 2 pots.

There could be more unwritten rules, but this is what makes sense based on where teams were slotted for the 2021 tournament. What does this mean for Canada? With the 7 slots mentioned in rule number 1 above guaranteed spots in pots 3 and 4, that means there are 3 more spots available in those pots. As per rule number 3 above, teams like CRC3, HON3, etc can't take those spots. The best of the rest according to my index calculations is HON2, CAN2, and PAN2. If I am right about all this, then I think the pots will be like this:

Ordered from the best pot to the worst pot.

Pot 3 - HON1, HON2, CRC1, CAN2, PAN1, PAN2, NCA1, SLV1

Pot 4 - CCC2, GUA1

Pot 1 - HON3, PAN3, SLV2, SLV3, CCC3, CRC2

Pot 2 - CRC3, NCA2, CCC4, GUA2, GUA3, BLZ1

If I am right about this, it's great for Canada! Of course it is also ridiculous that the slot with the best CONCACAF Index BY FAR (CRC3) is put in the bottom pot.

Amazing guess!

 

[Kent]

Updated with the result from last night's 2nd leg of the final. Congratulations to Comunicacions and Guatemala on their first CONCACAF League title. Now Guatemala (once), Costa Rica (three times), and Honduras (once) have all won the title.

[Unnamed Trialist]

So I was, thinking: how many of these players from Comunicaciones are on the national team? 

Last summer's Qatar qualifying squad had a keeper, 3 defenders and 4 mids. Another keeper was at HamKam, Theo's team in Norway. 

Haven't checked squad changes since. 

[Kent]

Updated the original post with last night's CCL results. The CCL table now includes CAN2 which of course this year is represented by Forge, who play tonight in the CCL debut for CPL teams!

For now I gave New England's slot (USA2) 3 points for "beating" Cavaly, who had to drop out for not being able to get Visa's to get into the USA. I'll have to go back to check if there has been a similar forfeiture to see how it was handled. I can't remember any off the top of my head other than the 2 teams that got kicked out of the CONCACAF League because the player/owner of one of the teams was handing out money after the game to his opponents. That seems like a bit different situation, and also since it was this past CONCACAF League, I don't yet have confirmation how they dealt with the points, since CONCACAF only releases the points at the time of the draw for the upcoming competition.

[Kent]

Updated the original post with the CCL results so far.

CAN1 is guaranteed to stay in Pot 1 after this tournament, and CAN2 is guaranteed to stay in Pot 2 after this tournament. But of course better results for each improve their chances of being in Pot1 longer term. Forge has a tough game tonight in the Azteca. Let's see if they are able to get their first Champions League goal, point, win, or advancement. If they do pull off the upset and advance, they will face Montreal in the quarter finals.

[Kent]

Updated with the final games of the first round. Forge is out, so now it's up to Pacific to qualify for next year's CCL to get at least 4 more points for the CAN2 slot in the CCL index. Montreal's next opponent will be Cruz Azul somewhere between March 8th and 10th.

[Kent]

I have updated the original post with the latest Champions League results. MEX3 and USA4 are the teams in the final, and both are already ahead of CAN1 (and obviously CAN2) so the Canadian spots can't drop any further. That means CAN1 will be in the top pot next year.

There is a very good chance that CAN1 drops out of the top 8 after next tournament because the 21 points from 5 years ago will drop off and be replaced with whatever we get next year. However, next year is the last Champions League with the current format. I don't think we know exactly what will happen then. I'm just looking over the wikipedia page for that tournament and it looks like the top 5 teams will be based on how they qualify (winners of MLS Cup, Liga MX, Leagues Cup, UNCAF, and Caribbean Cup). The other 22 teams play a knockout round before the top 5 are introduced. So probably as long as our slots are top 11 (not including the 5 champions just mentioned) they will be in the top pot, but who knows, they might completely change things and make it regionally based. I thought originally it was going to have groups and be regional. Maybe the wikipedia page is all wrong. Maybe I'll start worrying about it next year when Champions League starts up again.

[narduch]

3 minutes ago, Kent said:

I have updated the original post with the latest Champions League results. MEX3 and USA4 are the teams in the final, and both are already ahead of CAN1 (and obviously CAN2) so the Canadian spots can't drop any further. That means CAN1 will be in the top pot next year.

There is a very good chance that CAN1 drops out of the top 8 after next tournament because the 21 points from 5 years ago will drop off and be replaced with whatever we get next year. However, next year is the last Champions League with the current format. I don't think we know exactly what will happen then. I'm just looking over the wikipedia page for that tournament and it looks like the top 5 teams will be based on how they qualify (winners of MLS Cup, Liga MX, Leagues Cup, UNCAF, and Caribbean Cup). The other 22 teams play a knockout round before the top 5 are introduced. So probably as long as our slots are top 11 (not including the 5 champions just mentioned) they will be in the top pot, but who knows, they might completely change things and make it regionally based. I thought originally it was going to have groups and be regional. Maybe the wikipedia page is all wrong. Maybe I'll start worrying about it next year when Champions League starts up again.

This seeding system may not matter in the new format.

Next year will be the last time it will be necessary for sure.

[Kent]

5 hours ago, narduch said:

This seeding system may not matter in the new format.

Next year will be the last time it will be necessary for sure.

But is it "for sure"? If Wikipedia is right, there are 22 teams entering in the first round under the new format. You would think they would want to have 2 pots for that draw to give USA and Mexico the best chance of advancing the most possible teams. But how do you choose which 11 go in the top pot and which 11 go in the bottom?

OK, I think I've found the "geographicalish" way to split it up. They could have Liga MX qualifiers, MLS qualifiers, and Leagues Cup qualifiers be in the top pot, and banish everyone else, including the US Open Cup qualifier, CPL, and Canadian Championship qualifiers, to the bottom pot. That wouldn't surprise me. It would disappoint me and enrage me, but it wouldn't surprise me. Even if they use the club index going forward, it will still be enormously unfair for Central American and Caribbean teams, because there are many countries vying for a limited number of spots, so there will be years when they miss out on the CCL all together and thus not get any ranking points that year. Like how "CAN2" was at 0 points for the CCL this year, despite all the good Forge did in the CONCACAF League in that competition's "CAN2" over the last couple years.