CONCACAF League and Champions League Club Indexes

[narduch]

......

Edited April 7, 2021 by narduch

[Kent]

Updated with last night's results.

[Kent]

Updated the OP with last night's results. No change in the rankings the last 2 nights.

[Kent]

Updated with last night's results. USA4 (Atlanta) passed USA1 (Columbus, who plays tonight). No other changes in ranking. It's looking very likely that it will only be MLS and Liga MX teams after the first round. If that happens it will be the first time since 2015-16.

[Kent]

Updated with last night's results. HON1 (Olimpia) passed CRC1 (Alajualense).

[Kent]

Updated the OP with last night's results. The top seeded teams won every match up. Makes the table kind of boring even for a nerd like me. There were even 4 pairings where the favourite won both games. Oh, and USA1 (Columbus) passed USA4 back (Atlanta).

[Kent]

I finally got around to updating with last week's scores. No change in rankings.

[Kent]

Updated with last night's results. USA2 (Philadelphia) passed CAN1 (TFC, obviously).

[Kent]

Updated with last night's results. Looks like Mexican dominance is going to continue. Mexican clubs eliminated 3 MLS clubs this week, only one MLS club remaining from the USA2 spot. Nothing really interesting can happen the rest of the way with regards to these club indexes though. The 4 teams still in it are all in the top 5.

[Gian-Luca]

We'll see how Philly does in mid-season form in August, but as it stands TFC were actually the only team to eliminate a Liga MX team this year.

[Kent]

TL;DR - CONCACAF is making me go crazy!

I tried to get caught up to the recent games in CCL and CL this morning. CONCACAF is making my head hurt. With the updated numbers from CONCACAF that include last CL campaign I have some new findings.

1. I see that they decided a shootout win in the first (called Preliminary) round is worth 1 point (plus a half point for advancing), but in the next round a shootout win is worth 3 points (plus a half point for advancing). It makes no sense to me why they would do that but at least I can account for that when I do my calculations.

2. There has always existed the chance that a team that finished 2nd in their league, would be in a slot that is ranked higher than the team that finished 1st in that same league. It appears the way they are dealing with this is with a series of (unwritten?) rules that prevent, for example, CRC2 from being in a higher pot than CRC1. It looks like there is an additional constraint that a "3" team can't be in Pot 3 or Pot 4 (which of course, are the 2 highest seeded pots, because that's how CONCACAF operate). As a result, CRC3 despite being the top ranked slot in the entire competition, ends up in the 3rd ranked pot (Pot 1) and have to play in the preliminary round. These rules are much harder to accommodate in my spreadsheet and I'm worried it may have to be a manual process, and I don't even know if I understand it well enough to pull it off. In fact, I don't understand the placements. More on that in number 4 below.

3. HON2 and NCA1 have 1 more point than I think they should have. HON3 has one less point than I think they should have. I have no idea why. It looks like an error on CONCACAF's part, but who knows. It would be fun to scream out corruption, but these errors don't seem to make a material difference, at least this year. They are all in the same pot they would be either way.

4. I was hoping looking at these numbers might reveal how they deal with tie breakers. CAN2 and CCC2 were tied on the same number of points and I had it so that 1 of them would be in Pot 1 and the other in Pot 2. CONCACAF put CCC2 into Pot 4 (the 2nd best pot) and CAN2 in Pot 2 (the worst/4th best pot). To make things more confusing, the other spot in Pot 4 is GUA1 who has fewer points than CAN2. I guess all the "1" teams automatically get a bye past the preliminary round? Unless you are Belize? But why is SLV2 in a lower pot than CCC2 despite having much more points and them both being "2" spots?

Why do you do this to me CONCACAF?

Counting according to CONCACAF (Ranking, Slot, Club Index)

1. PAN1 - 47
2. HON1 - 46.5
3. CRC1 - 40
4. PAN2 - 38
5. HON2 - 34.5 35.5
6. SLV1 - 29
7. CRC2 - 28
8. NCA1 - 25 26
9. CCC2 - 19.5
10. GUA1 - 18
11. CRC3 - 66.5
12. SLV3 - 33.5
13. HON3 - 33.5 32.5
14. SLV2 - 32
15. PAN3 - 31
16. CCC3 - 29
17. NCA2 - 20
18. CAN2 - 19.5
19. GUA3 - 16.5
20. CCC4 - 14.5
21. GUA2 - 12
22. BLZ1 - 12

[Kent]

And I've just confirmed that there is no explanation for those funky rules that determine which pots the qualifying slots go into in this document that is supposed to explain this kind of stuff.

https://mcusercontent.com/78d3589fb61466b549ff752e5/files/8f4bee5b-b3ed-c973-b028-1d937ca3edff/21_SCL_Club_Ranking_and_How_Clubs_Qualify_English.pdf

[narduch]

8 minutes ago, Kent said:

TL;DR - CONCACAF is making me go crazy!

I tried to get caught up to the recent games in CCL and CL this morning. CONCACAF is making my head hurt. With the updated numbers from CONCACAF that include last CL campaign I have some new findings.

1. I see that they decided a shootout win in the first (called Preliminary) round is worth 1 point (plus a half point for advancing), but in the next round a shootout win is worth 3 points (plus a half point for advancing). It makes no sense to me why they would do that but at least I can account for that when I do my calculations.

2. There has always existed the chance that a team that finished 2nd in their league, would be in a slot that is ranked higher than the team that finished 1st in that same league. It appears the way they are dealing with this is with a series of (unwritten?) rules that prevent, for example, CRC2 from being in a higher pot than CRC1. It looks like there is an additional constraint that a "3" team can't be in Pot 3 or Pot 4 (which of course, are the 2 highest seeded pots, because that's how CONCACAF operate). As a result, CRC3 despite being the top ranked slot in the entire competition, ends up in the 3rd ranked pot (Pot 1) and have to play in the preliminary round. These rules are much harder to accommodate in my spreadsheet and I'm worried it may have to be a manual process, and I don't even know if I understand it well enough to pull it off. In fact, I don't understand the placements. More on that in number 4 below.

3. HON2 and NCA1 have 1 more point than I think they should have. HON3 has one less point than I think they should have. I have no idea why. It looks like an error on CONCACAF's part, but who knows. It would be fun to scream out corruption, but these errors don't seem to make a material difference, at least this year. They are all in the same pot they would be either way.

4. I was hoping looking at these numbers might reveal how they deal with tie breakers. CAN2 and CCC2 were tied on the same number of points and I had it so that 1 of them would be in Pot 1 and the other in Pot 2. CONCACAF put CCC2 into Pot 4 (the 2nd best pot) and CAN2 in Pot 2 (the worst/4th best pot). To make things more confusing, the other spot in Pot 4 is GUA1 who has fewer points than CAN2. I guess all the "1" teams automatically get a bye past the preliminary round? Unless you are Belize? But why is SLV2 in a lower pot than CCC2 despite having much more points and them both being "2" spots?

Why do you do this to me CONCACAF?

Counting according to CONCACAF (Ranking, Slot, Club Index)

1. PAN1 - 47
2. HON1 - 46.5
3. CRC1 - 40
4. PAN2 - 38
5. HON2 - 34.5 35.5
6. SLV1 - 29
7. CRC2 - 28
8. NCA1 - 25 26
9. CCC2 - 19.5
10. GUA1 - 18
11. CRC3 - 66.5
12. SLV3 - 33.5
13. HON3 - 33.5 32.5
14. SLV2 - 32
15. PAN3 - 31
16. CCC3 - 29
17. NCA2 - 20
18. CAN2 - 19.5
19. GUA3 - 16.5
20. CCC4 - 14.5
21. GUA2 - 12
22. BLZ1 - 12

Kent, I like that you do this.

However with the new format coming in, isn't most of this pointless?

[deschamp86]

32 minutes ago, Kent said:

And I've just confirmed that there is no explanation for those funky rules that determine which pots the qualifying slots go into in this document that is supposed to explain this kind of stuff.

https://mcusercontent.com/78d3589fb61466b549ff752e5/files/8f4bee5b-b3ed-c973-b028-1d937ca3edff/21_SCL_Club_Ranking_and_How_Clubs_Qualify_English.pdf

Do we know at what point CONCACAF would give Canada a third or even fourth spot?

[narduch]

25 minutes ago, deschamp86 said:

Do we know at what point CONCACAF would give Canada a third or even fourth spot?

We are getting 3 spots in the new format.

Plus the MLS clubs have more ways to qualify.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

Kent, I like that you do this.

However with the new format coming in, isn't most of this pointless?

Very nearly. I believe the new format starts in the 23-24 season. So next year will still be this format. So if Forge does well enough they could move CAN2 up to a higher pot... unless CONCACAF has deemed it not possible... who the hell knows.

I do hope to continue compiling numbers after it becomes useless though, for my own nerdy satisfaction, unless they start updating the numbers on the fly, or at least more regularly than at the time of each draw. I'll try to adapt to the new format maybe with a new thread, we will see how that goes. I started doing all this before they had a club index at all, making up my own. I still want to carry out that thought experiment.

[Kent]

59 minutes ago, deschamp86 said:

Do we know at what point CONCACAF would give Canada a third or even fourth spot?

To add to what Narduch said, you can see more details here, although it's not fully fleshed out (they haven't seemed to determine how many spots will be awarded through Leagues Cup, MLS, or Liga MX play).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–24_CONCACAF_Champions_League

[Kent]

Updated with CCL and CL results through last night. My previous indexes were from before the CL, so I've added this year and dropped off the oldest year from before. Every year this helps the CAN2 slot against the slots that have 5+ years of results, because they have points drop off the back end, but CAN2 doesn't. As a result of that phenomenon plus Forge's win last night, the CAN2 slot moved up 5 places! I've crossed out the CCC4 slot because Samaritaine (Martinique) who is in that spot dropped out I guess. Wikipedia says it's a walkover and it appears Universitario (PAN3) is being given one win (3 points) but of course we don't know if that's how CONCACAF will score it in these indexes.

Also note that at this point I'm not doing any CONCACAF funny business of moving slots with fewer points ahead of slots with more points.

P.S. The red numbers in the CL table are ones I copied from CONCACAF but I believe are incorrect.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Kent
Added P.S.

[Big_M]

all illusions and fantasy and waste of time...it just doesnt work that way

[youllneverwalkalone]

This new format will be huge for the CPL. You gotta wonder if the cap goes up a bit prior to this tourney.

[Kent]

28 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

This new format will be huge for the CPL. You gotta wonder if the cap goes up a bit prior to this tourney.

Honestly I hope they don't get caught up in paying big salaries to internationals to try to keep up with MLS and Liga MX. I've seen what it does on MLS teams with DPs, making it nearly impossible for domestics to play in the glamour positions. I want the CPL to be developing players in every position. I want the salary cap to be raised, but more for the bottom end guys. Raise the floor so that players hopefully don't need a second job and can focus more on soccer. I'd also like the level of players to be more balanced than MLS with it's lopsided rosters and pay.

[youllneverwalkalone]

I was thinking something closer to a full-time professional salary, at least for the first 11.

[Kent]

Updated with last night's results, including Forge advancing with a draw!

Out of curiosity, I just checked where CAN2 would rank if you don't include the years before CAN2 started competing. Forge have done well enough to get CAN2 3rd ranked when just counting the last 3 years! If you don't want to count this year's totals since many slots haven't had any games yet, then CAN2 is still tied in 4th. The other slots in the top 5 are 2 from Costa Rica and 2 from Honduras. Not bad at all for a brand new league! I do hope that a different team qualifies out of CPL this year though, and hopefully they can replicate Forge's great results. That will make it feel like less of a one team league, especially to outsiders.

[Kent]

Updated with yesterday's results. Verdes lost yesterday, and that makes 5 years in a row that the BLZ1 team lost all it's games (last year it was a single walkover). So that slot has just picked up the 2 points each year you get for participating, and are at the lowest point total possible for a slot that has been participating for 5+ years. In that time they lost both games to a team from Nicaragua, Honduras, and two times against a Costa Rican team.

Today is the last game of the preliminary round, between Comunicaciones (GUA3) and Once Deportivo (SLV3).

[Kent]

Updated with last night's game. The preliminary round is done. Guatemala and Costa Rica lead the way with 3 teams each still in the competition.