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ted

By ted
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Rheo Contributor

Rheo

Posted
Posted
Just now, Alex D said:

If this league starts cost cutting it will be writing its own obituary. What's the point of a premier league with amature contracts?

What other league has a major developmental pathway where amateur status is needed?  

It may not be a cost cutting measure.  It may be just given a place for elite players to play when not in school.  NCAA players player in League 1 with no pay in the summer.  I don't see why it couldn't be done in the CPL as well if there is a Larin level type of player who wants to keep his NCAA eligibility but wants to play in an elevated league.

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Gopherbashi Newbie

Gopherbashi

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7 minutes ago, Alex D said:

If this league starts cost cutting it will be writing its own obituary. What's the point of a premier league with amature contracts?

The point of a premier league with amateur contracts is controlling expenses - they may try to cut corners where they can while keeping a "premier" feel, and player contracts are one behind-the-scenes way of doing that.

I'm not saying it will be common, or that it will even happen, but it may be an option they try to explore in a few years' time.  Just because the people investing in these teams have money to burn doesn't mean they'll want to.

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Alex D Newbie

Alex D

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1 minute ago, Rheo said:

What other league has a major developmental pathway where amateur status is needed?  

It may not be a cost cutting measure.  It may be just given a place for elite players to play when not in school.  NCAA players player in League 1 with no pay in the summer.  I don't see why it couldn't be done in the CPL as well if there is a Larin level type of player who wants to keep his NCAA eligibility but wants to play in an elevated league.

I still don't know how I feel about that but the original post suggested it as purely a cost savings. 

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Gopherbashi Newbie

Gopherbashi

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Just now, Alex D said:

I still don't know how I feel about that but the original post suggested it as purely a cost savings. 

I do see it as a cost-saving measure for ownership, but depending on how "premier" this league ends up being, there may be some arguable benefits for the player as well.

Hell, Halifax's stadium presentation had portapotties for spectator use - we're not exactly dealing with gold-plated stadiums here.

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dyslexic nam Grand Master

dyslexic nam

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In terms of the veracity of the info in the Halifax proposal, I suspect that it is at least fairly sold, and represents quite a bit more than a best guess.  As much as people like to bash governments, they generally don't make major decisions/investments on the basis of half-baked presentations that offer an idea of what things maybe, sort of could look like, potentially, if things go as hoped... possibly.  People bringing that kind of info to the table are told to go away and come back when they have something more concrete - especially when it involves major infrastructure being put in the most valuable piece of real estate in the city.  These guys are talking about renovating the landscape of Citadel Hill - that is not something the city will do on a whim.  That is why I think this has to be at least a fairly informed proposal.  Those may not absolutely be the actual original 6 when the dust settles, but when you start talking about the mechanics of a shortened season to leverage WC inertia, the full season length, proposed ticket prices (which would inform a team budget), etc - I think these are all indicators that the info has to be more than blue-sky ideas about what a league might look like.  

Maybe I am wrong - maybe the presentation was just meant to get some degree of notional support from the city just in case the stars align.  But the level of specificity suggests otherwise - at least to me. 

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dyslexic nam Grand Master

dyslexic nam

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15 hours ago, Rheo said:

I think it's wrong to assume anything at this point. Now is the time for patience. These guys have a plan and we're seeing more of it every week. No use in speculating and filling up another hundred pages in a week until the next news drop lol.

Just wanted to re-quote this one.  How are we doing so far?

 

 

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Rheo Contributor

Rheo

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3 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

Four pages in 15 hours - that puts us on pace for 45 pages in a week.  Gotta pick up the pace.

We're still waiting for new news lol

Edit-my reply made page five

44 minutes ago, m-g-williams said:

Hot off the presses from Rollins. Still listening, but we'll see what he says.

https://sportspodcastingnetwork.com/2017/03/28/soccer-today-on-spn-march-28th-2017-canadian-premier-league-talk-and-usavpanama/

I just listened, nothing new.  Mostly recapping what was in the power point for those outside the bubble and some speculation.

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Rheo Contributor

Rheo

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3 minutes ago, FreeAgent said:

Sorry I've been in and out of this thread for a while now...but the 6 teams are in:

Halifax, Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton, Ottawa, Regina?

Halifax presentation from last week to city officials listed an "original six", just sub in Winnipeg for Regina and you've got it.  The presentation was online, now offline and the Halifax group says it's being taken out of context and perspective is needed so not a sure thing those six are for in for sure.

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FreeAgent Newbie

FreeAgent

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3 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

If that is a question, you are close - the Halifax presentation showed Winnipeg, not Regina.

 

3 minutes ago, Rheo said:

Halifax presentation from last week to city officials listed an "original six", just sub in Winnipeg for Regina and you've got it.  The presentation was online, now offline and the Halifax group says it's being taken out of perspective so not a sure thing.

Ahh ok, I figured I was off.

I've actually been looking over the past few months (on and off during my free time) at the MLS in terms of how their revenue and cost structure is and if it would translate to Canada and I've been very roughly trying to gauge what sort of attendance is necessary to have a sustainable operating profit. I think I'm much closer on the revenue side than the cost side in terms of accuracy.

But I'm getting something like an attendance of 2590 to break-even, I'm sure some of my estimates are off, but does that seem reasonable (at 2590 in attendance, I'm getting $2.5M Total Revenue for a team).

At this attendance, I think it's totally possible for a future 12 or so team league across the country.

In MLS:

Comparative Population Revenue $/Person
LA Galaxy 13131431  $          58,000,000  $                  4.42
Chicago 9512999  $          24,000,000  $                  2.52
NJ Red Bulls 8944469  $          23,000,000  $                  2.57
NYCFC 8550405  $          36,000,000  $                  4.21
Dallas 7102796  $          24,000,000  $                  3.38
Houston 6313158  $          26,000,000  $                  4.12
DC 6097684  $          23,000,000  $                  3.77
Philly 6069875  $          24,000,000  $                  3.95
Toronto 5928040  $          38,000,000  $                  6.41
New England 4628910  $          27,000,000  $                  5.83
Montreal 4098927  $          24,000,000  $                  5.86
Orlando City 3765432  $          36,000,000  $                  9.56
Seattle 3733580  $          52,000,000  $                13.93
Colorado 2814330  $          16,000,000  $                  5.69
Vancouver 2463431  $          20,000,000  $                  8.12
Portland 2389228  $          39,000,000  $                16.32
SKC 2340000  $          33,000,000  $                14.10
Columbus 2021632  $          24,000,000  $                11.87
SJ 1976836  $          31,000,000  $                15.68
RSL 1153340  $  24,000,000

 $  20.81

 

For the 6 Canadian Teams:

  Metro Pop Revenue Based on Average $/Population Min Revenue
Halifax 403390  $                                                               3,290,118  $     1,017,698
Edmonton 1321426  $                                                             10,777,778  $     3,333,778
Calgary 1392609  $                                                             11,358,359  $     3,513,363
Hamilton 721053  $                                                               5,881,033  $     1,819,118
Ottawa 1323783  $                                                             10,797,002  $     3,339,724
Winnipeg 811874  $                                                               6,621,784  $     2,048,247
     

 

Mind you the Min Revenue number is based on the Revenue $/Person of the lowest performing team per population in the states, which is Chicago. But as population decreases, the revenue per person actually rises. The Bottom 5 teams in terms of population actually has an average revenue per person of $15.76, that actually brings Halifax up to about $6.4M in terms of revenue. If you look at the lowest Metro Population in the MLS (Real Salt Lake - Salt Lake City) - they have a revenue of $24M on a population of 1.15M, about $21/person of revenue per person.

In conclusion, I've been really bored waiting for this damn league to happen and I really like Excel.

Any thoughts?

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Gopherbashi Newbie

Gopherbashi

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32 minutes ago, FreeAgent said:

I've actually been looking over the past few months (on and off during my free time) at the MLS in terms of how their revenue and cost structure is and if it would translate to Canada and I've been very roughly trying to gauge what sort of attendance is necessary to have a sustainable operating profit. I think I'm much closer on the revenue side than the cost side in terms of accuracy.

But I'm getting something like an attendance of 2590 to break-even, I'm sure some of my estimates are off, but does that seem reasonable (at 2590 in attendance, I'm getting $2.5M Total Revenue for a team).

At this attendance, I think it's totally possible for a future 12 or so team league across the country.

I'd probably go with a median as opposed to an average if you're going to do it that way, which looks to be Montreal's $5.86.  Using an average lets outliers like RSL vastly skew things.

You'd also need to account for shorter season - I doubt it would start earlier than NASL, so cut off a couple home games there, and it would probably end a bit earlier too.

Advertising revenue (including broadcasting) is another big part which the CPL won't have a lot of, which might not be a direct correlation with population.

I'm not quite sure how you get 2590 in attendance = $2.5m in revenue.  I guess you're saying that each butt in a seat can be counted on for ($ ticket sales) + ($ merch/concession sales) + ($ advertising revenue) x (# home games) on average.

EDIT: Might also be worthwhile to compare to MLS 1.0 revenue levels, which wouldn't have had a lot of the reach they have today.

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Nathanael Martin Newbie

Nathanael Martin

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27 minutes ago, FreeAgent said:

 

Ahh ok, I figured I was off.

I've actually been looking over the past few months (on and off during my free time) at the MLS in terms of how their revenue and cost structure is and if it would translate to Canada and I've been very roughly trying to gauge what sort of attendance is necessary to have a sustainable operating profit. I think I'm much closer on the revenue side than the cost side in terms of accuracy.

But I'm getting something like an attendance of 2590 to break-even, I'm sure some of my estimates are off, but does that seem reasonable (at 2590 in attendance, I'm getting $2.5M Total Revenue for a team).

At this attendance, I think it's totally possible for a future 12 or so team league across the country.

 

I do so love the conclusion! I'm wondering what type of expense your are using for your estimates? Are you picturing an MLS-like league that has MLS-like pay grades for the players minus the DPs?

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