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Red Team Elimination Watch 2014


Trillium

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On the day of Vancouver's playoff game it is also rather ironic that the team that continually hires inexperienced poor coaches actually had a former player who has turned out to be an inexperienced good coach yet is bringing one of the other Canadian teams into the playoffs tonight! 

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Yeah, last game of disappointing season with dodgy weather and even some case in show of protest (like mailing your remaining tickets with letter to TFC FO to send a message like some have) didn't encourage people to come out?  I am so surprised.   :rolleyes:

 

On season tickets alone, they sold 17K so that tells me at least they sold 17K tickets alone.   It isn't uncommon for people who bought tickets (especially season tickets) don't show for a game.   

 

So your point is that 17K people got really excited 10 months ago, bought season tixs and therefor Toronto is a great soccer city because on paper 20K tickets were sold to each game, even though the stadium wasn't anywhere near full, but that's acceptable because 17K season tickets were bought 10 months ago when people were really excited.... 

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So your point is that 17K people got really excited 10 months ago, bought season tixs and therefor Toronto is a great soccer city because on paper 20K tickets were sold to each game, even though the stadium wasn't anywhere near full, but that's acceptable because 17K season tickets were bought 10 months ago when people were really excited.... 

 

Again, I said stadium was full until end of the season.   If you look at crowd (or better yet attend TFC games) you would have notice the difference.   

 

Given TFC history, MLSE is lucky that TFC consistently  sale 16K to 17K season tickets every year.   So what does that say to you?  

I am sure anyone was looking to put a soccer team in Canada, Toronto would be top of the list due to our market.   There's reason why TFC is one of the most valuable clubs in MLS despite not making it to playoffs in their history.     

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Given TFC history, MLSE is lucky that TFC consistently  sale 16K to 17K season tickets every year.   So what does that say to you?  

 

It says that a bunch of people were sold on a 'Bloody Big Deal Joke'.

 

What were the ST sales for 2013?

 

 

 

I am sure anyone was looking to put a soccer team in Canada, Toronto would be top of the list due to our market.   

 

Of course they would.  It doesn't take rocket scientist to correlate between sponsorship / attendance and by far the biggest city / area in the country?

 

Doesn't make it anymore of a soccer market than anywhere else.    

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It says that a bunch of people were sold on a 'Bloody Big Deal Joke'.

 

What were the ST sales for 2013?

 

 

 

Of course they would.  It doesn't take rocket scientist to correlate between sponsorship / attendance and by far the biggest city / area in the country?

 

Doesn't make it anymore of a soccer market than anywhere else.    

 

In 2013, I believe it was 15K season tickets sold which wasn't bad given it was suppose to be our "rebuild" year (in other words: except a lot of losses)    

 

Btw: TFC currently has waiting list of 3,000 for season tickets.   So you add the fact current 17K SSH and 3K on wait list, there's a good chance season tickets sold for next season will  remain same at least.  

 

No playoffs in club history, but we still manage to draw those numbers.  That's show you strength of market.  If you can't understand that, then ask yourself this question: if any NA market that never made it to the playoffs or never had a winning record in their history, how many of them still manage to sell season tickets like TFC?   

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I agree, TFC is still a very healthy club. Not saying they are run well, but they attract fans very easily and remember, those tickets ain't cheap either. Just imagine what would happen if the club actually had some succes...One can dream, no?

 

This is why I find it funny people talking about TFC being relocated or end up folding even though TFC is one of most valuable club in the league thanks to strong support for soccer in Toronto.   Many MLS markets will kill to have a market like Toronto!   

 

This is why TFC can afford to spend big money if they want to knowing they can make that money back in the long term or in bigger BMO field stadium.  

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Toronto is the biggest club in the league if you combine all factors.  Seattle obviously is the main argument for biggest club but I'd like to see where they would be at with 8+ seasons out of the playoffs.. it's easy to support a club that wins all the time.  Alternatively imagine Toronto had the success rate of Seattle.. it would be insane and this 30,000 expansion would have happened in 2010.  The fact that the club can miss the playoffs for so many years and expand/raise ticket prices shows you the strength of the market.  Oh and set a travelling support record at rock bottom.

 

There is no city in MLS as big as Toronto where you can walk around the city and you're bound to see TFC gear and maybe even over hear a conversation about the team.  Still always shocking when you go to a conference and the people across from you are talking about the Urruti saga.

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How and why are you two even trying to quantify Toronto as the biggest club with the best market in all the MLS?  And to even compare yourself to Seattle... brilliant.   

Its like listening to two Americans who have never left American talk about how great America is.   

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How and why are you two even trying to quantify Toronto as the biggest club with the best market in all the MLS?  And to even compare yourself to Seattle... brilliant.   

Its like listening to two Americans who have never left American talk about how great America is.   

 

Read my post, that's how and why.  

 

Is it a rule not to compare to Seattle or something?  They have impressive attendance but clearly Toronto would be at least at that level if they were swapped and there isn't a chance that Seattle would be where they are if they were run by MLSE.  

 

Let me guess.. you've never been to Toronto for a TFC match.  It's like you're offended that I'm stating facts... American? Yikes, that's low.

 

MLSE may not know footy but they know their market and $ potential.  Expanding SSS by 10,000 seats with the seasons TFC have had?  On the other hand, Seattle plays in an NFL stadium.  Signings that lead national news?  The CEO of MLSE more involved than any of their other franchises..  TFC is a big club and will be the foreseeable future and when they turn it around it will finally be clear.

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Read my post, that's how and why.  

 

Is it a rule not to compare to Seattle or something?  They have impressive attendance but clearly Toronto would be at least at that level if they were swapped and there isn't a chance that Seattle would be where they are if they were run by MLSE.  

 

Let me guess.. you've never been to Toronto for a TFC match.  It's like you're offended that I'm stating facts... American? Yikes, that's low.

 

MLSE may not know footy but they know their market and $ potential.  Expanding SSS by 10,000 seats with the seasons TFC have had?  On the other hand, Seattle plays in an NFL stadium.  Signings that lead national news?  The CEO of MLSE more involved than any of their other franchises..  TFC is a big club and will be the foreseeable future and when they turn it around it will finally be clear.

 

MLSE may not know footy, hockey or b-ball.....but they sure know how to count the herds $$$$$$.

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Read my post, that's how and why.  

 

Is it a rule not to compare to Seattle or something?  They have impressive attendance but clearly Toronto would be at least at that level if they were swapped and there isn't a chance that Seattle would be where they are if they were run by MLSE.  

 

Let me guess.. you've never been to Toronto for a TFC match.  It's like you're offended that I'm stating facts... American? Yikes, that's low.

 

MLSE may not know footy but they know their market and $ potential.  Expanding SSS by 10,000 seats with the seasons TFC have had?  On the other hand, Seattle plays in an NFL stadium.  Signings that lead national news?  The CEO of MLSE more involved than any of their other franchises..  TFC is a big club and will be the foreseeable future and when they turn it around it will finally be clear.

 

Nobody cares.  

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Toronto is the biggest club in the league if you combine all factors.  Seattle obviously is the main argument for biggest club but I'd like to see where they would be at with 8+ seasons out of the playoffs.. it's easy to support a club that wins all the time.  Alternatively imagine Toronto had the success rate of Seattle.. it would be insane and this 30,000 expansion would have happened in 2010.  The fact that the club can miss the playoffs for so many years and expand/raise ticket prices shows you the strength of the market.  Oh and set a travelling support record at rock bottom.

 

There is no city in MLS as big as Toronto where you can walk around the city and you're bound to see TFC gear and maybe even over hear a conversation about the team.  Still always shocking when you go to a conference and the people across from you are talking about the Urruti saga.

 

 

Keegan.... http://www.wakingthered.com/2013/11/20/5126574/mls-franchise-value-toronto-fc-forbes-2012 Forbes as of this time last year.... pegged TFC as fifth in value in the league, so well off the biggest club which was and still is Seattle.

 

It does not matter how big a city Toronto is and that TFC gear is visible, it is about bums in seats ( occupied ) and revenue stream from such bums in seats, that has to be Seattle.

 

Mr. Liewcke was hired because he ran AEG holdings and made them money, TFC in 2013 was the sixth most profitable with 4.5 million positive operating income, which is a profit of 13.23 cents per seat per game at BMO, that is a hot dog and coke or beer per game revenue that is how thin the margins were in 2013.

 

Another way to look at it is the Kook Aid drinkers have two less glasses per game ( Kook Aid estimated at 6.50 a cup ) TFC goes into a deficit in 2013, now add in the 2014 Salary budget increase, and you have a probable 2014 negative income statement in year eight of operation. How much was the loss ? Figure 12 million for the Bloody Big Deal and friend as an expense and I will give you an increased sales perdiction of 4 million in ancillarys for the Bloody Big Deal and Friend ( at 90 dollars a jersey a sale of approx 44,500 jerseys revenue not counting production costs which would be about 25%, so lets call it 3 million extra ancillary revenue.

 

That leaves you with 9 million dollars to make up in beer and ticket sales... the ticket sales might be strong, but no bums in seats means no hot dogs sold, means less revenue.

 

TFC operational losses coujld well be upwards of 12 million this year.

 

If they made 4.5 million in 2013, lets assume they did the same in 2012 and 2011, for a total of 13.5 million in the bank... that cushion is getting well eaten into.

 

Money earned from year one to 2010, I do not know the exact number but I suspect the money was paid out to the Teachers Pension plan as profit and did not stay with MLSE when it was sold ( no I have not gone and checke exact sales date etc. but you should be aware of the reality ).

 

So ... TFC will not make MLSE happy with its income statements this year, if the asset is worth 121 Million in 2013 as described by Forbes selling and investing at 5% return in the equity markets gets MLSE six million a year in revenue, and they have stadium in which they can run a CFL franchise they get to buy for one dollar ( the Argos ).

 

Even more compelling for MLSE board is a NASL franchise at 750,000 dollar buy in gets them 16 home games running a soccer club with an annual cost to run of under 3 million.

 

Selling Franchise to US city = Smart move.

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That's all great but I'm not judging how big the club is off of hot dog sales or Forbes lists Trillium.  Your news that TFC lost $ this year is extraordinary though, simply for the fact that was a conclusion back in January and you're telling us now. 

 

Largest SSS in North America? Check.

Record(s) for away support? Check.

Biggest transfer window in league history? Check.

 

By big club I'm talking about a club that can bounce back from year to year simply because they have the power to do so and not because hot dog sales are bankrolling them.  TFC does.  Losing Defoe won't matter because the club/city can afford to attract a player of his magnitude to replace him.

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That's all great but I'm not judging how big the club is off of hot dog sales or Forbes lists Trillium.  Your news that TFC lost $ this year is extraordinary though, simply for the fact that was a conclusion back in January and you're telling us now. 

 

Largest SSS in North America? Check.

Record for away support? Check.

Biggest transfer window in league history? Check.

 

Tim Leiweke said if Defoe is sold, then they will sign another DP.   So what does that say about TFC financial health wise?  

 

What Trillium is saying is hilarious given TFC is increasing seating capacity so they can make more money to justify their DP signings.  Also, TFC expected to increase their sponsorship revenue and they're going to have new shirt sponsor next year.  

 

Point is: TFC is growing despite lack of on-field success while playing a big part of developing Canadian players.  I don't understand hate from Canadian soccer fans on here.   

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If i were Trillium i'd be more worried about Ottawa folding from the NASL then TFC leaving Toronto...

 

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jpg75

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 04:53 PM

TFC 4th in East

IMFC 9th in East

VWFC 6th in West

 

V's cup: TFC
 
_________________________________________________________________________________

 

Actual results versus Jpg75 prediction TFC pegged for 4th ...by Jpg75 crashed to 7th.
 
IMFC 9th in Jpg75 prediction down to 10th ( pretty close )
 
VWFC 6th in west, actual result 5th...( getting close )
 
V's Cup Jpg75 predicts TFC....actual result the 10th place team Montreal wins it and moves on to CCL.
 
Hence I am not to concerned about your quasi prediction regarding Ottawa Fury and the year one results... but hey keep swigging up the Kook Aid, it will be a long winter with no soccer for TFC and no Bloody Big Deal...apparently he is going back o'er home.
 
PS Montreal is back playing in CCL in late February ...an early start to their season....
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Gerrard is not needed as long as TFC still has Bradley. Wesley Sneijder though would be an excellent signing. He has obvious world class pedigree, is still only 30, and is the type of attacking midfielder Toronto sorely lacks. Obviously they could get more bang for their buck by getting a number 10 from Latin America. Unlike the smaller clubs though, they actually have the ability to make it happen - so why not? 

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There is a huge bias in the TFC fan base to have EPL players, the revolving door of players who arrive then are drummed out by the fan base...only to succeed elsewhere just gets longer...they are after Gilberto now, and so it goes, the fan base is always quick to mob up on a player...but hey they drink the Kook Aid and by season tickets so have at it...but after eight years you would hope the narrative would mature.

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You know - I think the curious case of the TFC fan base is quite interesting. Toronto is the fourth biggest city in North America (recently surpassing Chicago). The GTA market is massive. 

 

I think what we see is more akin to what takes place in New York City or Los Angeles. The team will always be relatively healthy based on the market size alone. There will always be fans in the stands. Obviously some years will be better than others, but the chances of getting Dallas or Columbus type support is very small.

 

So, although some Kool Aid drinking goes on (as it does everywhere), you may be ignoring the power of demographics here.

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