Red Team Elimination Watch 2014

[Trillium]

Seems appropriate to start a 2014 thread. With ten games left and on 33 points, can they get 17 points out of the 30 on offer?

I would think 50 pts is needed to be in, that equates out to five wins and two ties in ten games, that is having no more then three losses.

The TFC fans are in for a nail biter end of season.

[shermanator]

Couldn't wait to troll, could you? 

[Trillium]

Shermanator what do you think the odds of winning five and getting two ties are?

You must have a viewpoint...or is your comment a sad admission it has all gone bad once again?

[Trillium]

Shermanator what do you think the odds of winning five and getting two ties are?

You must have a viewpoint...or is your comment a sad admission it has all gone bad once again?

[Danny Boy]

Should be a Red & White thread. Keep it fully Canadian.

[tmcmurph]

Philly (twice), Chicago, Chivas, Portland, LA, Houston, NY, Montreal, NE.

 

 Philly, Chicago, Chivas, Houston, Montreal and you could have 6 wins right there. All are beatable in Toronto and on the road. 

 

I like your chances better than my Caps currently. 

[Obinna]

I find it pretty pathetic you always insist on these type of threads, but I'll play....

 

TFC have one of the easiest remaining schedules and have a game in hand on most teams. The Nelsen firing is a gamble, but it's common for teams to get "bumps" when a manager gets sacked. They are probably hoping for that to get over the hump. I still like their chances and think we'll see a top five of: 

 

DCU

SKC

TFC

NE

COL

 

 

Hope that MTL can end the year strong and not finish in last.

[Grizzly]

If Vanney proves to be a better coach than Nelson and Defoe stays I think TFC will make the playoffs. If Vanney is of a similar ability to Nelson and TFC loses their leading scorer I think they will once again miss the playoffs.

 

It seems really hard to understand that MLSE with all of its money can not understand the concept of hiring a good coach/manager with a lot of experience and a record of success instead of all these rookie coaches and managers. Not that the Impact are any better given our long employment of our owner's best buddy NDS though I guess an argument could be made that we had some stability in keeping our incompetent manager long term instead of changing incompetent manager year after year like TFC (though we did change our coaches yearly). Now that NDS is gone I can only hope that Klopas proves to be a good and competent manager which we will find out about in the off season and early next year when he has his own team and not NDS' team. At the least I think he will be judged purely on his results next year and not gifted a job based on his relationship to Saputo. I think what is apparent with these incompetent managers is they are able to pick the no brainers like Defoe and DiViao but when it comes to finding the good reasonably priced MLS starters that build the core of any good team they lack the skills and player evaluation ability to do so.

[Ivan]

^ I agree for the most part Grizzly.  The problem exacerbates itself when you keep changing coaches and GMs so there is no consistency of reasonably priced MLS starters.  The new coach comes in and changes the core every year so the team cannot establish its core.  Look at the litany of ex TFC players now making a name for themselves as these type of players across the league (Plata, Silva, Peterson, Dunivant, Barrett, Frei, Amarikwa, Labrocca, etc, etc)

[BearcatSA]

^ I agree for the most part Grizzly.  The problem exacerbates itself when you keep changing coaches and GMs so there is no consistency of reasonably priced MLS starters.  The new coach comes in and changes the core every year so the team cannot establish its core.  Look at the litany of ex TFC players now making a name for themselves as these type of players across the league (Plata, Silva, Peterson, Dunivant, Barrett, Frei, Amarikwa, Labrocca, etc, etc)

 

To me a bigger problem with this club (but I think they may be getting away from it now) is the huge litany of international role player types they signed to MLS and lasted one year (or rarely two) with the team and weren't deemed good enough to get another gig in the league.  Where are Martin Saric, Yourassowsky, and Jonas Elmer now?

[Ivan]

Yeah for sure Bearcat.  That is one good thing about the Nelsen/Bez regime.  Very little of that nonsense.  They have brought in a lot of solid MLS performers - Morrow, Creavalle, Oduro, Jackson, Dike, DeRo and Warner, and some solid imports like Moore and Caldwell.

[TheKottonmouthed1555362307]

Seriously, what a shit show this season has been over the last couple months.

 

TFC and The Caps, have just dropped major opportunities for themselves game after game. While The Caps might have been lucky to be in the spot they were on the backs of Pedro, TFC has talent coming out there ass for the first time in their existence and they still cannot put any sort of conistency on the pitch.

 

This season started out with so much hope and potential for both clubs and now its back to elimination watches. GodDammit.

[jpg75]

Seems appropriate to start a 2014 thread. With ten games left and on 33 points, can they get 17 points out of the 30 on offer?

I would think 50 pts is needed to be in, that equates out to five wins and two ties in ten games, that is having no more then three losses.

The TFC fans are in for a nail biter end of season.

The saying "those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones" comes to mind.

http://www.nasl.com/standings

http://m.mlssoccer.com/standings

[shamrock]

Looking at that last game, players knew the situation and they dropped Nelsen like a sack of patatoes. Bradley was plain riduculous on the first two goals, Not the slightest effort to get the ball back. And that's the best man they got. I got the sense (that was before little Tim sacked Nelsen) that the players were done with him. 

 

And looking at it like that, if the coach looses his players respect, his time at the club has come to an end. But now what, will it get better? Maybe the first couple of games, after that it will be the same. The problems are structural, the team isn't that great at all. Or does anyone expect an completely different line-up? 

 

Btw (not wanting to troll here but it is remarkable), that Luis Silva guy is doing pretty well at DC, he?

[Trillium]

The saying "those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones" comes to mind.

http://www.nasl.com/standings

http://m.mlssoccer.com/standings

What do you mean by glass house? Ottawa has been horrible in Fall NASL season, I acknowledge that, we have striker who passes off the ball when he is in the six yard box instead of shooting, team speed is lacking, our defence does not make effective runs from the back to overlap etc.etc.but the difference is jpg I am willing to see it for what it is a group of players who have failed to understand how mentally tough they need to be to win in a league of hungry players grinding it out...some like Ubi get it, others do not, they will be gone at seasons end.

Does Santos will be frustrated but bite his tongue and say the right things to seasons end, then management will look for better players to bring in,hopefully building a stronger base and working in younger players, little by little, bit by bit jpg is how you build a club.

I doubt it will be eight years of frustration as you have been scared by, but time will tell

[Trillium]

Philly wins, new manager bump... not effective.

 

TFC have 27 points available with nine games to go can they win five or more of nine and get more then 17 points ?

 

As many have said, last nights game was a must win, ( not mathematically but certainly on a momentum basis ) a loss at home to a charging Philly who have now pulled equal to TFC as has Columbus.

 

Three teams on 33 points, Columbus plays Chivas at home and on any reasonable basis you have to think Columbus gets three points to stay even with TFC or jump ahead of them staying even with Philly, the scenario of Philly win and Columbus win drops TFC from the playoff zone.

 

More concerning to the TFC fan base has to be the worry that Red Bull drop KC who lost to New England and go to 34 points after saturday, last time the two played it was a 1-1 tie, which again is possible.

 

So keys for the weekend for TFC beat Philly , and Chivas defeats Columbus, creating the best outcome possible, are those two mini-miracles possible ?

 

 

* Edited to remove my error on schedule re Montreal/NE, thanks Blackdude.

[Blackdude]

It's not going to take 50 pointss with the logjam. I think that 46 will do it. Chicago is a strong team for a ninth place team compared to Toronto last year. Also, New England's in 3rd right now, TFC should worry at teams at 33 or less not a team at 36. And Montreal's playing Houston on the weekend. New England's playing Chicago.

[Trillium]

You could be right on the 46 but that would be low number .... I changed my original post to delete the schedule error on my part... I must have read the 13th date as the one I needed...

[Obinna]

I don't think beating Philly at home is a "mini miracle", but I do agree that Chivas beating Columbus is.

 

The trend is not promising but TFC still have a very realistic chance to make the post season.

 

Why is there no "Caps-elimination watch 2014" thread? They are as in tough as Toronto are. 

 

Of course that is a rhetorical question - I know why this thread exists. Yes the TFC side-show is dramatic and entertaining, but technically they have the same number of points as the Caps and the same amount of games played I believe. The Caps don't have to deal with the drama but they also have a much tougher schedule. I hope both teams make it. It's too bad the Impact are out of it.

 

Also, 46 points sounds about right, although 40 is the traditional magic number, let's keep that in mind.

 

As a side note - I think the team is worse structurally than it was at the beginning of the season. Issey for Warner was a terrible move never helped either team. I never fancied the Oduro move either. Rey and Issey brought skill to the team. What did they give up for Moore? He was a good pick up for sure. Aside from that DeRosario could have been utilized a lot more.

 

Nelsen left a real mess behind . 

[Blackdude]

Also, 46 points sounds about right, although 40 is the traditional magic number, let's keep that in mind.

 

You mean 50, right? Looking at numbers, 40 will never be good enough.

Taking Sports Club Stats numbers and thinking that 95% probability should do it unless a club is really unlucky. 47 gives you 96% or so. 48 gives you 99% 49 gives you 99.9%. TFC does have an edge with few draws which means more victories than clubs around them and since victories are the first tiebreakers, they should feel safe. I think I wanted to write 47 and made a typo.

[Redcoatsforever]

Why is there no "Caps-elimination watch 2014" thread? They are as in tough as Toronto are. 

 

Because the schadenfreude thread revolving around Vancouver is whether or not they hate Canada, for TFC it's elimination watch, and for Montréal there isn't a thread because nobody cares about them.

[El Hombre]

Because the schadenfreude thread revolving around Vancouver is whether or not they hate Canada, for TFC it's elimination watch, and for Montréal there isn't a thread because nobody cares about them.

Winner!

[Obinna]

You mean 50, right? Looking at numbers, 40 will never be good enough.

Taking Sports Club Stats numbers and thinking that 95% probability should do it unless a club is really unlucky. 47 gives you 96% or so. 48 gives you 99% 49 gives you 99.9%. TFC does have an edge with few draws which means more victories than clubs around them and since victories are the first tiebreakers, they should feel safe. I think I wanted to write 47 and made a typo.

No, I meant 40. Not that I think 40 will be enough this year of course. I was just pointing out that in the past 40 points was widely considered the "red-line".

[Trillium]

Philly does the double and defeats TFC at home, but more troubling is the empty stands of Kook Aid drinkers where have RBP gone ?

27 points left to pick up if my counting is correct. TFC needs seven wins now, some would say that is miracle zone.

Now I know some if the hard core TFC supporters figure Vanny needs this week to install a new system, and I agree he was left with a tough brief to reform a team with two games in one week, but it was versus the same team and you would think the back end game at home should have been stronger.... Pretty sure I saw the TV calling them the Turmoil team, that has to hurt the folks with Defoe jerseys.

[Trillium]

Philly does the double and defeats TFC at home, but more troubling is the empty stands of Kook Aid drinkers where have RBP gone ?

27 points left to pick up if my counting is correct. TFC needs seven wins now, some would say that is miracle zone.

Now I know some if the hard core TFC supporters figure Vanny needs this week to install a new system, and I agree he was left with a tough brief to reform a team with two games in one week, but it was versus the same team and you would think the back end game at home should have been stronger.... Pretty sure I saw the TV calling them the Turmoil team, that has to hurt the folks with Defoe jerseys.