Canada's Odds to Qualify

[gkhs]

Hi all,

So I spent way too much time on spreadsheet today, only to find out that the news was not as good as I had hoped:

There are 729 total permutations.

Canada's final position is a given in 707 of those (their position would depend on goal differential in the other 22).

In 606 of those 707 permutations, Canada would qualify through to the next round (86%).

However, a major complicating factor is the terrible performance of Cuba.

If Cuba finishes the round with zero points, it raises the bar for all of the other teams to move on.

With Cuba on zero points, there would be no possible outcome in which Canada would move on with ten points or fewer.

As it stands, in order to have any chance to qualify, Canada needs either to reach at least 11 points, or have Cuba take points from Honduras or Panama.

Either would give Canada a very good chance to qualify. Both would guarantee qualification.

[tyler453]

Hi all,

So I spent way too much time on spreadsheet today, only to find out that the news was not as good as I had hoped:

There are 729 total permutations.

Canada's final position is a given in 707 of those (their position would depend on goal differential in the other 22).

In 606 of those 707 permutations, Canada would qualify through to the next round (86%).

However, a major complicating factor is the terrible performance of Cuba.

If Cuba finishes the round with zero points, it raises the bar for all of the other teams to move on.

With Cuba on zero points, there would be no possible outcome in which Canada would move on with ten points or fewer.

As it stands, in order to have any chance to qualify, Canada needs either to reach at least 11 points, or have Cuba take points from Honduras or Panama.

Either would give Canada a very good chance to qualify. Both would guarantee qualification.

Well if Cuba finishes with zero (suspecting they will still be at zero following tomorrows match), that leaves Honduras with one game vs each of us and Panama with seven points. If we beat Cuba in Toronto (well, we better or else I don't even know what I'd do!), and Panama gets the win out of Honduras in Panama City, then it would leave us to get just a draw, or depending on goal differential, we may not even need a result (well, if Honduras beats Cuba say 2-0 tomorrow, that would leave us having to beat Cuba 3-0 at home to assure we're plus two, so if they win 1-0 against us in San Pedro Sula we've still got +1 on them).

Bottom line, we better hope that Honduras doesn't run up the score on Cuba, or even better, cuba draws them or something!

At this point though, it would seem Honduras is at the disadvantage behind us and Panama.

[Addona]

Yes, the conclusion I've come to is that we really still need at least a draw in Panama. If we don't get a draw in Panama, then we will most likely need a draw in Honduras (and, of course, a win vs. Cuba). In fact, even 11 points could see us go out on goal differential (we tie in Panama, beat Cuba, and lose away to Honduras, with Honduras getting a tie in Panama). It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

Bottom Line: Let's not count our chickens ... we still need results!

Also, we become BIG Panama fans after tomorrow's game, and hope that they beat Honduras by 2 or 3 goals!

[maplebanana]

With Cuba on zero points, there would be no possible outcome in which Canada would move on with ten points or fewer.

If:

Canada loses to Panama, beats Cuba, loses to Honduras - they have 10 points.

Panama beats Canada, beats Honduras, beats Cuba - they have 15 points.

Honduras beats Cuba, loses to Honduras, beats Canada - they have 10 points.

Cuba loses to Honduras, loses to Canada, loses to Panama - they have 0 points.

then it comes down to goal differential (i.e. who can smash Cuba by more goals).

The troubling part is, this isn't some obscure permutation. It's what would happen if all the favored teams in each match won.

[canadianfoot]

Hi all,

So I spent way too much time on spreadsheet today, only to find out that the news was not as good as I had hoped:

There are 729 total permutations.

Canada's final position is a given in 707 of those (their position would depend on goal differential in the other 22).

In 606 of those 707 permutations, Canada would qualify through to the next round (86%).

However, a major complicating factor is the terrible performance of Cuba.

If Cuba finishes the round with zero points, it raises the bar for all of the other teams to move on.

With Cuba on zero points, there would be no possible outcome in which Canada would move on with ten points or fewer.

As it stands, in order to have any chance to qualify, Canada needs either to reach at least 11 points, or have Cuba take points from Honduras or Panama.

Either would give Canada a very good chance to qualify. Both would guarantee qualification.

Sorry to tell you that man but it took me Canada - Panama game (2hrs) 8beers and another 4 to cool down to come to roughly same conclusion. lol

[Blackdude]

If:

Canada loses to Panama, beats Cuba, loses to Honduras - they have 10 points.

Panama beats Canada, beats Honduras, beats Cuba - they have 15 points.

Honduras beats Cuba, loses to Honduras, beats Canada - they have 10 points.

Cuba loses to Honduras, loses to Canada, loses to Panama - they have 0 points.

then it comes down to goal differential (i.e. who can smash Cuba by more goals).

The troubling part is, this isn't some obscure permutation. It's what would happen if all the favored teams in each match won.

Actually no. Head-to-head is more important and Honduras would win tha in that particular situation.

[maplebanana]

Actually no. Head-to-head is more important and Honduras would win tha in that particular situation.

I think that's the case for Concacaf champions league, but for WCQ it is goal differential first. So says #6 on pg. 25 of this FIFA document: http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/01/47/38/17/regulationsfwcbrazil2014_en.pdf

Also described under 'tiebreakers' on the wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification

[Tuscan]

I'm pretty sure the secondary qualification factor we can focus the most energy on is smashing Cuba by as many goals as possible on the 12th. Not being pessimistic, but more of a realist, winning in Central America and the wealthier Caribbean nations is extremely difficult, and very unlikely. I will not be disappointed if we don't get results either tomorrow or on the 15th in Honduras. I will be disappointed if we don't dismantle Cuba by at least 3 goals. That game needs to be 3-0 MINIMUM. It is gut check time. I believe it will come down to goal differential for our final match down in San Pedro Sula. No witch-burning "hey don't talk **** like that, you vex us" stuff, let's just look at things for how they are. Had you been down in Cuba, the boys were in such difficult conditions that I will NEVER EVER be disappointed if things go awry south of the US. The heat destroys.

[Keegan]

I'm pretty sure the secondary qualification factor we can focus the most energy on is smashing Cuba by as many goals as possible on the 12th. Not being pessimistic, but more of a realist, winning in Central America and the wealthier Caribbean nations is extremely difficult, and very unlikely. I will not be disappointed if we don't get results either tomorrow or on the 15th in Honduras. I will be disappointed if we don't dismantle Cuba by at least 3 goals. That game needs to be 3-0 MINIMUM. It is gut check time. I believe it will come down to goal differential for our final match down in San Pedro Sula. No witch-burning "hey don't talk **** like that, you vex us" stuff, let's just look at things for how they are. Had you been down in Cuba, the boys were in such difficult conditions that I will NEVER EVER be disappointed if things go awry south of the US. The heat destroys.

But let's remember our opponents are just men like ours and are playing in the same conditions. Also, that game was at 2 pm and this one will be in the evening.

[gkhs]

Replies

1. "Odds" was the wrong word to use, I guess, since not all outcomes are equally likely...for instance, I would be feeling great if I thought Canada's chance to qualify actually was 86%.

2. Also, I must admit, I was assuming (as BD did above) that the first tie-break was head-to-head. How pissed would Honduras be if they went win-draw versus Canada, and we still went through? (It might almost start to make up for the innumerable times they have shadily gotten past us.)

3. As bad as the 10 Honduras, 10 Canada, goal difference scenario mentioned above by maple is, there are worse, for instance:

Honduras beats Canada, Canada draws Panama, Panama draws Honduras (all beat Cuba).

11 Canada, 11 Panama, 11 Honduras.

[MJALLTHEWAY]

I am excited and doing permutations in my head as well but it is relatively pointless until this round is finished. I don't think there's any doubt that a draw would do wonders for our hexagonal prospects and a win would all but put us through. A loss would complicate things a tonne, and we then may be relying on Panama to defeat Honduras, or a point/GD in Honduras in the last game which is worrisome.

If Panama wins, you have to believe they are through even with a loss to Honduras. 9 points with a game against Cuba (12 points after Cuba). This is scary because a Panama win against us means they may rest on their laurels against Honduras and I would not be surprised AT ALL to see Honduras steal a victory in Panama City under the circumstances.

Let's say this happens, and we take full points from Cuba, then it is down to us and Honduras, both on 10 going into Honduras. This is not somewhere we want to be lol. This is especially true because we are not traditionally a high goal scoring team that is likely to put 5 on Cuba. If we are down on goal differential going into the last game, we will need to get a victory in Honduras.

All in all, not getting a point in Panama tonight could be backbreaking for our chances, or leave us needing a victory in San Pedro Sula. I don't think we should be going to Panama City and thinking a loss isn't backbreaking when it very well could be. We're not in the clear yet!

After starting with how pointless permutations are at this point... I write paragraphs about permutations lol. Can't help it. Too Excited!

[ensco]

We have been hurt by the fact that none of the games between Honduras/Panama/Cuba have resulted in draws.

So. Cuba are virtually eliminated (there is a scenario where they could win all their games, and everyone else draws in all other games, that gets them through, but it's farfetched). I am assuming Cuba will lose out. I am certainly sure Honduras will beat Cuba Tuesday.

If we win Tuesday: we are on 10 points, and a win against Cuba would put us through, as both Honduras and Panama cannot reach 13 points.

If we draw Tuesday: Canada would be on 8 points, and Panama and Honduras would be on 7 points, with 2 games to go. If Canada then beats Cuba, we are on 11, with Honduras and Panama playing the same night. If there were a result in the Panama-Honduras game, leaving one team on 7 points, we would be through. In the event of a draw in the Panama-Honduras game, there would be the chance of a 3 way tie on 11 points (if Panama beat Cuba and Honduras beat Canada on the last day). This scenario is not so farfetched, and the head-to-head records would be identical (with everybody having beaten Cuba twice). So goal differential would come into it. We need to keep an eye on this, we may need goals in the Cuba game.

If we lose Tuesday, we will wake up in third place (Panama 9, Honduras 7, Canada 7 but behind Honduras on goal differential), and will therefore, even if we beat Cuba at home, almost certainly need a result in Honduras (at least a draw, and possibly a win, depending on goal differential)

To recap: with a win Tuesday, we definitely can clinch against Cuba. With a draw, we have a decent chance of clinching against Cuba. With a loss, we will probably need to both beat Cuba and get a draw or better in Honduras.

Tuesday's game is for all the marbles.

[killgod]

Who can lay down odds on the hearts of eleven men?

[Sam]

Who can lay down odds on the hearts of eleven men?

Haha - well done.

[Tuscan]

True enough, but man, the humidity factor is massive as well. I guess I just don't want to pump myself up emotionally and then get crushed if we can't do it, because man Friday was the best game I've been to ever.

[killgod]

just throwing these out there for those doing calculations on what can happen

For FIFA World Cup qualifying stages using a league format, the method used for separating teams level on points is the same for all Confederations, as decided by FIFA itself.[6] If teams are even on points at the end of group play, the tied teams will be ranked by:

goal difference in all group matches

greater number of goals scored in all group matches

greater number of points obtained in matches between the tied teams

goal difference in matches between the tied teams

greater number of goals scored in matches between the tied teams

greater number of away goals scored in matches between the tied teams if only two teams are tied

If teams are still equal then a single play-off at a neutral venue will be played. If scores are level after 90 minutes in the play-off, then two 15-minutes periods of extra time and (if required) a penalty shoot-out would determine the winner.

We need to pump Cuba in October.

[Tuscan]

"If teams are still equal then a single play-off at a neutral venue will be played. If scores are level after 90 minutes in the play-off, then two 15-minutes periods of extra time and (if required) a penalty shoot-out would determine the winner."

Could you imagine what it would be like if it came down to this??

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Tuesday's game is for all the marbles.

After more years than me on the forum, great first post ensco! Nice analysis.

[ESG Shawn]

"If teams are still equal then a single play-off at a neutral venue will be played. If scores are level after 90 minutes in the play-off, then two 15-minutes periods of extra time and (if required) a penalty shoot-out would determine the winner."

Could you imagine what it would be like if it came down to this??

It will be 2nd leg vs Australia in 1993 all over again x10000000. I don't think I would be physically able to watch. Lets get a result tonight, and hope we don't need to even worry about tiebreakers.

[Scottie]

It will be 2nd leg vs Australia in 1993 all over again x10000000. I don't think I would be physically able to watch. Lets get a result tonight, and hope we don't need to even worry about tiebreakers.

In that the winner gets to be thrashed by the finalist of the previous world cup?

[ensco]

So. Dammit all to hell.

Panama 9, Honduras 7, Canada 7 (Honduras +2, Canada 0 on GD).

Let's assume Canada beat Cuba Oct 12.

If Honduras beats Panama: it's Honduras 10, Canada 10, Panama 9. With Canada trailing both Panama (currently +4) and Honduras on GD. In this scenario, we will have to beat Honduras Oct 16. A tie will not be good enough unless Cuba beat Panama.

If Panama beat Honduras, it's Panama 12, Canada 10, Honduras 7. A tie at Honduras would get us though. If we beat Cuba by only one goal, and Panama beat Honduras by only one goal, Honduras would beat us on GD if they beat us in the last game. But if we pound Cuba, this would reverse.

If Panama and Honduras draw: it's Panama 10, Canada 10 (but trailing Panama on goal differential, unless we kill Cuba), and Honduras 8. A draw would see us through.

Bottom line: we absolutely need to pour it on against Cuba, unless Panama are winning. Go Panama! We caught a break tonight, the weather was bad in Honduras, they only scored once. If we don't score three or four against Cuba, we will probably need to beat Honduras outright to get through. But with goals against Cuba, we could get that tiebreak and get through with a draw.

NB: this is my source on tiebreakers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FI...on#Tiebreakers

For FIFA World Cup qualifying stages using a league format, the method used for separating teams level on points is the same for all Confederations, as decided by FIFA itself.[6] If teams are even on points at the end of group play, the tied teams will be ranked by:

goal difference in all group matches

greater number of goals scored in all group matches

greater number of points obtained in matches between the tied teams

goal difference in matches between the tied teams

greater number of goals scored in matches between the tied teams

greater number of away goals scored in matches between the tied teams if only two teams are tied