Unofficial CPL fan survey

[Complete Homer]

So, now at 600+ responses, with the survey open for another 16 days

One thing I'd appreciate is if any members of a VWC supporters group was willing to pass this on, I have no VWC SG representation yet (and the Southsiders is a closed forum)

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/WBQ8LWV

[JerryUnderscore]

I'm not entirely sure if a team will work in Toronto since they're very product driven.  As has been pointed out, Toronto didn't support lower level play and only started supporting a tier when it was the highest level of professional sports available.

If I CPL team is going to work in the city, you need to do two things.  One, don't start in Toronto.  Let the CPL find its footing and financial viability in other markets before they try to compete in Toronto.  This means don't make Toronto one of the original six or even an early expansion team.  Build the league up to ten teams or so before moving into Toronto.

Number two, when you finally do move into Toronto, don't market it as a Toronto team.  Market it as a Brampton team or an Markham team or Vaughn team or something.  In fact, if the CPL could launch two Toronto-based expansion teams simultaneously, that might be ideal.  Especially if they could put them on opposite sides of the city and let a cross-town rivalry build.

Eventually, if the league gets big enough and promotion and relegation happen, you could allow other Toronto-area teams into the second division and watch their supporters cheer them into the first division.

[Greatest Cockney Rip Off]

3 hours ago, JerryUnderscore said:

I'm not entirely sure if a team will work in Toronto since they're very product driven.  As has been pointed out, Toronto didn't support lower level play and only started supporting a tier when it was the highest level of professional sports available.

I guess it depends of what you consider support. Right now there is a 3rd division rugby team getting 7,000 people to Lamport. I think numbers like that could work for the CPL. 

[ironcub14]

12 hours ago, JerryUnderscore said:

I'm not entirely sure if a team will work in Toronto since they're very product driven.  As has been pointed out, Toronto didn't support lower level play and only started supporting a tier when it was the highest level of professional sports available.

If I CPL team is going to work in the city, you need to do two things.  One, don't start in Toronto.  Let the CPL find its footing and financial viability in other markets before they try to compete in Toronto.  This means don't make Toronto one of the original six or even an early expansion team.  Build the league up to ten teams or so before moving into Toronto.

Number two, when you finally do move into Toronto, don't market it as a Toronto team.  Market it as a Brampton team or an Markham team or Vaughn team or something.  In fact, if the CPL could launch two Toronto-based expansion teams simultaneously, that might be ideal.  Especially if they could put them on opposite sides of the city and let a cross-town rivalry build.

Eventually, if the league gets big enough and promotion and relegation happen, you could allow other Toronto-area teams into the second division and watch their supporters cheer them into the first division.

I respectfully disagree on every point you made above. Will try to be brief rather than writing some kind of an essay.

I think the attendance figures in the Big 3 when all three were in the A-League reflect the ownership groups and the stadia they played in more than anything else. At one point, even the Impact were averaging 2,000, according to the figures above on this page.

On a much more important note though, the Canadian soccer supporters in the Big 3 are far more evolved than it was when the Big 3 were all in the second tier. The supporters that have evolved in the Big 3, whether from the USL/A-League times or MLS, also form the backbone of the Voyageurs, with Jamie for example being a central part of the TFC supporters as well. I would strongly argue that the Big 3 should be in CPL as soon as possible, at launch if they can, as many of the more sophisticated MLS supporters will be bringing their support for CPL as well.

When you do put a team into Toronto or Montreal or Vancouver, it is essential that the team is marketed as a Toronto, Montreal or a Vancouver team first. The suburban teams can come later. It is essential that you unite all the Canadian soccer supporters in the Big 3, most of who already support the MLS teams, and whether a Voyageur or not, that you unite all the Canadian soccer fans in the Big 3 as the fanbase for those 3 CPL teams.

There's no time for a suburb vs suburb rivalry in CPL at the moment, that's for later on. Right now, as of 2018 or 2019, the focus in the Big 3 should be on getting those who are Canadian soccer fans as involved in CPL as they are in MLS or CanMNT at the present.

 

[JerryUnderscore]

10 hours ago, ironcub14 said:

I would strongly argue that the Big 3 should be in CPL as soon as possible, at launch if they can, as many of the more sophisticated MLS supporters will be bringing their support for CPL as well.

The issue is that when you're launching a league with six clubs, those six need to be as close to a sure thing as possible.  If you launched with six clubs--three of which are in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal--and those clubs fail (since football fans have larger, better clubs to support), you run the risk of cratering the league right then and there.  Why take the risk?

Rather, target markets that don't already have a professional club at all.  Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Quebec City and Halifax all have large enough populations that they could realistically support a club and there is currently no competition in those markets.

 

It's since come out that there's an interested party in Toronto, so we'll see what happens.  But I know when the CPL was originally announced last month Beirne seemed to think staying away from the Big 3 for now was in their best interest.  Either way, I guess we'll see what happens in the coming months with club announcements.

[JerryUnderscore]

20 hours ago, Greatest Cockney Rip Off said:

I guess it depends of what you consider support. Right now there is a 3rd division rugby team getting 7,000 people to Lamport. I think numbers like that could work for the CPL. 

I would love numbers like that.  Do you think Toronto fans are willing to support any sports team with those kinds of numbers or do you think that 7,000 is because, regardless of the division, Toronto Wolfpack is the only professional Rugby League team in the city?

[Complete Homer]

Not to interrupt the flow of conversation, but thanks to whoever posted the link to VWC SG forums, getting a slew of responses, balancing the east-west representation a bit more

[Gopherbashi]

48 minutes ago, JerryUnderscore said:

The issue is that when you're launching a league with six clubs, those six need to be as close to a sure thing as possible.  If you launched with six clubs--three of which are in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal--and those clubs fail (since football fans have larger, better clubs to support), you run the risk of cratering the league right then and there.  Why take the risk?

Rather, target markets that don't already have a professional club at all.  Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Quebec City and Halifax all have large enough populations that they could realistically support a club and there is currently no competition in those markets.

 

It's since come out that there's an interested party in Toronto, so we'll see what happens.  But I know when the CPL was originally announced last month Beirne seemed to think staying away from the Big 3 for now was in their best interest.  Either way, I guess we'll see what happens in the coming months with club announcements.

I think that's why Beirne is saying that they'll have teams in all major cities by 2020 - aiming to fill a vacuum first before creating competition.

[JerryUnderscore]

12 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

I think that's why Beirne is saying that they'll have teams in all major cities by 2020 - aiming to fill a vacuum first before creating competition.

Yeah, I fully expect the CPL to compete in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Edmonton and Ottawa eventually (assuming Edmonton and Ottawa don't bring their current teams into the CPL).  But the league needs to grow and figure out how to be financially viable before it tries to take on the MLS teams.

[rob.notenboom]

26 minutes ago, Complete Homer said:

Not to interrupt the flow of conversation, but thanks to whoever posted the link to VWC SG forums, getting a slew of responses, balancing the east-west representation a bit more

I tweeted it and tagged Curva and the Southsiders. A few Vancouver folks picked it up and retweeted it to including Zach the capo of Curva. Glad it helped. 

[Greatest Cockney Rip Off]

3 hours ago, JerryUnderscore said:

I would love numbers like that.  Do you think Toronto fans are willing to support any sports team with those kinds of numbers or do you think that 7,000 is because, regardless of the division, Toronto Wolfpack is the only professional Rugby League team in the city?

I think a lot of it has to do with the great marketing and engagement from the Wolpack. They have also worked really hard to create a great game day experience. I also think part of it is Canada's Anglophile nature and the team playing in the English league system. A CPL club wouldn't be in an English league, but smart leadership could do the other things to create something similar. 

[ironcub14]

17 hours ago, JerryUnderscore said:

The issue is that when you're launching a league with six clubs, those six need to be as close to a sure thing as possible.  If you launched with six clubs--three of which are in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal--and those clubs fail (since football fans have larger, better clubs to support), you run the risk of cratering the league right then and there.  Why take the risk?

Rather, target markets that don't already have a professional club at all.  Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Quebec City and Halifax all have large enough populations that they could realistically support a club and there is currently no competition in those markets.

 

It's since come out that there's an interested party in Toronto, so we'll see what happens.  But I know when the CPL was originally announced last month Beirne seemed to think staying away from the Big 3 for now was in their best interest.  Either way, I guess we'll see what happens in the coming months with club announcements.

Here's my context for my argument; I think launching with 6 or 7 teams, whether it be 2018 or 2019, is a fatal mistake in a country as big as Canada.

A 6-team league is really not going to capture much attention in the mainstream, and I think that would hurt the league both in the short-term and in the long-term. It's important for CPL to project a professional image from the get-go, and I don't think a 6-team league does that, when you ask this question outside of the Voyageurs forum and the CPL diehards.

I truly believe CPL shouldn't launch until it has at least 8 teams ready to go, and if that means waiting until 2019 or 2020, so be it. We're getting a second chance on the original CSL with this CPL, and I don't know if there will be a third chance.

So, with that said, my vision for having the Big 3 in CPL is with at least 8 or 10 teams in the league at launch. And I believe the sheer population size and the interest in local football that already exists in the Big 3 makes them as likely for success or failure as any of the other cities you mentioned above.

[JerryUnderscore]

A six-team league might not gain much mainstream attention, but I'm not sure they need to.  They need to be successful in the markets they have teams in.  The league isn't going to succeed or fail based on how many people in Toronto are watching the games on TV.  They're going to be success based on how many people come out to the games.  They're going to be successful is they can create an entertaining fan experience on game day.

The league needs to make sure they're financial viable before they enter risky markets.  But the league isn't going to make money on TV contracts as much as they'll make money on ticket sales, merchandise and advertising both on kits and on the field.  Ironically enough, since Toronto already has a major football franchise, it's the riskier market right now than Hamilton, Winnipeg or Halifax.

Now, all of this isn't to say that the league should stay at six teams forever.  I fully expect them to expand at least to eight teams quickly; more than likely by the start of the 2019 season.  But it might be a few years after that before we see them get up to 10 teams.

Out of curiosity, if you were organizing the league, where would you place the 8-10 teams you think they should launch with?

[ironcub14]

22 minutes ago, JerryUnderscore said:

A six-team league might not gain much mainstream attention, but I'm not sure they need to.  They need to be successful in the markets they have teams in.  The league isn't going to succeed or fail based on how many people in Toronto are watching the games on TV.  They're going to be success based on how many people come out to the games.  They're going to be successful is they can create an entertaining fan experience on game day.

The league needs to make sure they're financial viable before they enter risky markets.  But the league isn't going to make money on TV contracts as much as they'll make money on ticket sales, merchandise and advertising both on kits and on the field.  Ironically enough, since Toronto already has a major football franchise, it's the riskier market right now than Hamilton, Winnipeg or Halifax.

Now, all of this isn't to say that the league should stay at six teams forever.  I fully expect them to expand at least to eight teams quickly; more than likely by the start of the 2019 season.  But it might be a few years after that before we see them get up to 10 teams.

Out of curiosity, if you were organizing the league, where would you place the 8-10 teams you think they should launch with?

We can agree to disagree if you like, but I think you're underestimating how many TFC, Whitecaps and Impact fans are interested in dual-supporting a CPL team in their respective cities. I will argue that Toronto is not any riskier than Hamilton, Winnipeg, or Halifax. The level of sophistication among footy supporters in the Big 3 is quite vast, in part due to the long-running presence of USL and MLS in the 3 cities.

And yes, I agree with you that the league is going to be based on how many people come out to games, and what sort of an entertaining fan experience on game day at the stadiums, any of these markets you want to discuss. And merch and advertising and corporate sponsorships, for sure. And we'd all hope the league gradually expands, for sure.

I would ideally hold out for a 10-team launch, at 7 of the 8 biggest CMAs in Canada, plus Hamilton, Halifax and Regina. Or to put it another way, 10 out of the 11 below.

Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Edmonton, Quebec City, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Halifax, Regina.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_census_metropolitan_areas_and_agglomerations_in_Canada

 

 

 

[ironcub14]

I'll also add quickly that the Toronto/GTA CPL thread is longer than any other city-specific CPL thread in the forum, including even Hamilton's. There's a ton of CPL interest in TO/GTA, for a good reason.

[Dub Narcotic]

1 hour ago, ironcub14 said:

I'll also add quickly that the Toronto/GTA CPL thread is longer than any other city-specific CPL thread in the forum, including even Hamilton's. There's a ton of CPL interest in TO/GTA, for a good reason.

It's by far the biggest city in the country?

[ironcub14]

4 minutes ago, Dub Narcotic said:

It's by far the biggest city in the country?

Pretty much the whole point.

[Complete Homer]

1 hour ago, dsqpr said:

Personally, I think the hard-core MLS fans on here greatly overestimate the allegiance of the broader MLS fan base in their cities. When Canadian football fans have a real CANADIAN league to support I am sure they will embrace it -- to the detriment of MLS. You can't support two club teams, it just doesn't work.

The key is for CPL to be seen as a viable professional alternative from the outset. If that doesn't happen then all bets are off.

Interestingly, about 16% of respondents from the links distributed to MLS SG forums/twitter feeds (which represent 23.7% of the total sample) said that they would support CPL over their MLS team if a CPL team entered their market, and/or consider their MLS team a rival. That's a pretty sizeable minority from the corners of the internet likely to be the most hardcore for each MLS club. Now, they are also less likely to say they would "support both equally", but still an interesting thing to see

That is in comparison to the rest of the sample, of which just over 30% said they would support a CPL club over the MLS club in their market. As a subgroup, the Voyageurs board (17.4% of the total sample) is unsurprisingly the most pro-CPL, has 44% willing to support a CPL club over an MLS club in their market

With the exception of the MLS SG links, all subgroups had "supporting both equally" as the most popular answer

Obviously nothing is definitive, and anyone clicking on something called an "Unofficial CPL fan survey" is probably more pro-CPL than the average joe, but overall I think the "hardcore" communities have an incredible amount of goodwill towards CPL. Then again, CPL hasn't really had the chance to make many mistakes yet

[Complete Homer]

8 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

Yeah, that is a projected minimum 16% drain from MLS to CPL long before CPL has even kicked a ball. Those numbers are only going to get better for CPL.

Donning tin hat...

Big caveat: There are a chunk IMFC supporters in Quebec City and VWC supporter in the Alberta/Saskatchewan that voted that they would consider IMFC/VWC a rival if a CPL team came to town...not surprising at all. I don't expect the south end at BMO to suddenly lose 16% of its members

(edit: actually looking at the numbers again, seems like that isn't accurate anymore...oddly enough they seem *less* likely to switch than their counterparts in actual MLS markets)

[harrycoyster]

1 minute ago, dsqpr said:

Yeah, that is a projected minimum 16% drain from MLS to CPL long before CPL has even kicked a ball. Those numbers are only going to get better for CPL.

Donning tin hat...

Hate to be a downer, but that usually isn't true. The interest in a North American sports team usually downtrends for ~5 years after the first game is played before evening out (around 75% of initial interest is considered above average). This is certainly true of the recent MLS teams.

As to your point that the CPL will significantly impact MLS numbers, I think you are extrapolating too much from our Canadian soccer bubble. I've seen little hard evidence to support that.

[BuzzAndSting]

4 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Hate to be a downer, but that usually isn't true. The interest in a North American sports team usually downtrends for ~5 years after the first game is played before evening out (around 75% of initial interest is considered above average). This is certainly true of the recent MLS teams.

As to your point that the CPL will significantly impact MLS numbers, I think you are extrapolating too much from our Canadian soccer bubble. I've seen little hard evidence to support that.

Which recent MLS teams are you referring to? Has Toronto FC's attendance gone down since day 1?

[Complete Homer]

8 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Hate to be a downer, but that usually isn't true. The interest in a North American sports team usually downtrends for ~5 years after the first game is played before evening out (around 75% of initial interest is considered above average). This is certainly true of the recent MLS teams.

As to your point that the CPL will significantly impact MLS numbers, I think you are extrapolating too much from our Canadian soccer bubble. I've seen little hard evidence to support that.

Yup. Everyone is (rightly) worried about the launch, but that "honeymoon is over but the league isn't quite 'established' yet" period will be just as tricky

Also, while I agree any and all results of the survey should be considered "in the bubble" (but not just Voyageurs) stats, I do think the casual crowds are driven more by the atmosphere created by the hardcore than anything else the club does. Having the hardcore invested is more than TFC had a couple years before launch

[harrycoyster]

26 minutes ago, BuzzAndSting said:

Which recent MLS teams are you referring to? Has Toronto FC's attendance gone down since day 1?

Almost all of them go through it to some extent. NYCFC is visibly in the middle of it, Chivas USA folded because of it, Vancouver is trying to climb out of it right now.

Toronto FC saw a roughly 10% drop in attendance between year 1 and year 7, but the "honeymoon period" isn't just attendance; it's TV numbers, jersey sales, season ticket numbers, social media interaction, not being able to raise ticket prices to keep up with inflation, etc. I work in the sports marketing industry, and I've never heard of a sports team not going through the "honeymoon period" barring an outlying event. 

[BuzzAndSting]

12 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Almost all of them go through it to some extent. NYCFC is visibly in the middle of it, Chivas USA folded because of it, Vancouver is trying to climb out of it right now.

Toronto FC saw a roughly 10% drop in attendance between year 1 and year 7, but the "honeymoon period" isn't just attendance; it's TV numbers, jersey sales, season ticket numbers, social media interaction, not being able to raise ticket prices to keep up with inflation, etc. I work in the sports marketing industry, and I've never heard of a sports team not going through the "honeymoon period" barring an outlying event. 

Do you have evidence of the 10% drop for TFC? I tried looking online and couldn't find anything. I'd be surprised because everything I've read is that they have steadily grown since day one.

[harrycoyster]

10 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

Your point appears to be that CPL will need to start off with higher than break-even revenue in order to be viable. That may very well be so. But I'm not sure I see the connection between that point and the survey that is the subject of this thread.

All I'm saying is that whatever the level of interest is in a team at launch, expect that number to deteriorate for 4-7 years before steadily up-ticking in the years after (if they survive the drop). If the percentage of MLS fans highly interested in a CPL is 15%, expect 4% to go back to MLS in the honeymoon period, not to gain on MLS in that period. The founding and near closure of MLS in 2001 is a great case study in this.

3 minutes ago, BuzzAndSting said:

Do you have evidence of the 10% drop for TFC? I tried looking online and couldn't find anything. I'd be surprised because everything I've read is that they have steadily grown since day one.

I was just going by the numbers listed on the TFC season Wikipedia pages (20,134 home attendance in 2007, 18,155 home attendance in 2012). I couldn't find more credible numbers anywhere else. Still, attendance is only one metric that can be quite misleading. I can't speak directly to TFC, because I know very little about their operation, but I'm sure I would have heard if they had year-over-year growth since 2007. It's an exceedingly rare occurrence.