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Complete Homer

Unofficial CPL fan survey

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1 minute ago, dsqpr said:

Yeah, that is a projected minimum 16% drain from MLS to CPL long before CPL has even kicked a ball. Those numbers are only going to get better for CPL.

Donning tin hat...

Hate to be a downer, but that usually isn't true. The interest in a North American sports team usually downtrends for ~5 years after the first game is played before evening out (around 75% of initial interest is considered above average). This is certainly true of the recent MLS teams.

As to your point that the CPL will significantly impact MLS numbers, I think you are extrapolating too much from our Canadian soccer bubble. I've seen little hard evidence to support that.

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4 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Hate to be a downer, but that usually isn't true. The interest in a North American sports team usually downtrends for ~5 years after the first game is played before evening out (around 75% of initial interest is considered above average). This is certainly true of the recent MLS teams.

As to your point that the CPL will significantly impact MLS numbers, I think you are extrapolating too much from our Canadian soccer bubble. I've seen little hard evidence to support that.

Which recent MLS teams are you referring to? Has Toronto FC's attendance gone down since day 1?

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8 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Hate to be a downer, but that usually isn't true. The interest in a North American sports team usually downtrends for ~5 years after the first game is played before evening out (around 75% of initial interest is considered above average). This is certainly true of the recent MLS teams.

As to your point that the CPL will significantly impact MLS numbers, I think you are extrapolating too much from our Canadian soccer bubble. I've seen little hard evidence to support that.

Yup. Everyone is (rightly) worried about the launch, but that "honeymoon is over but the league isn't quite 'established' yet" period will be just as tricky

Also, while I agree any and all results of the survey should be considered "in the bubble" (but not just Voyageurs) stats, I do think the casual crowds are driven more by the atmosphere created by the hardcore than anything else the club does. Having the hardcore invested is more than TFC had a couple years before launch

Edited by Complete Homer

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33 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Hate to be a downer, but that usually isn't true. The interest in a North American sports team usually downtrends for ~5 years after the first game is played before evening out (around 75% of initial interest is considered above average). This is certainly true of the recent MLS teams.

As to your point that the CPL will significantly impact MLS numbers, I think you are extrapolating too much from our Canadian soccer bubble. I've seen little hard evidence to support that.

I think you and I are talking about different things. I'm talking about the bleed of fans from MLS to CPL and you appear to be talking about overall CPL attendance. Based on this survey I think it is fair to at least make tentative assumptions about the former but certainly not about the latter.

IF the CPL team succeeds (by attracting at least break even attendance) then it seems quite clear that at least some of those fans will have come from current MLS support. And, extrapolating, that MLS support will be down 16% or more.

Edited by Lofty

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26 minutes ago, BuzzAndSting said:

Which recent MLS teams are you referring to? Has Toronto FC's attendance gone down since day 1?

Almost all of them go through it to some extent. NYCFC is visibly in the middle of it, Chivas USA folded because of it, Vancouver is trying to climb out of it right now.

Toronto FC saw a roughly 10% drop in attendance between year 1 and year 7, but the "honeymoon period" isn't just attendance; it's TV numbers, jersey sales, season ticket numbers, social media interaction, not being able to raise ticket prices to keep up with inflation, etc. I work in the sports marketing industry, and I've never heard of a sports team not going through the "honeymoon period" barring an outlying event. 

Edited by harrycoyster

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5 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Almost all of them go through it to some extent. NYCFC is visibly in the middle of it, Chivas USA folded because of it, Vancouver is trying to climb out of it right now.

Toronto FC saw a roughly 10% drop in attendance between year 1 and year 7, but the "honeymoon period" isn't just attendance; it's TV numbers, jersey sales, season ticket numbers, social media interaction, not being able to raise ticket prices to keep up with inflation, etc. I work in the sports marketing industry, and I've never heard of a sports team not go through the "honeymoon period" barring an outlying event. 

Your point appears to be that CPL will need to start off with higher than break-even revenue in order to be viable. That may very well be so. But I'm not sure I see the connection between that point and the survey that is the subject of this thread.

Edited by Lofty

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12 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Almost all of them go through it to some extent. NYCFC is visibly in the middle of it, Chivas USA folded because of it, Vancouver is trying to climb out of it right now.

Toronto FC saw a roughly 10% drop in attendance between year 1 and year 7, but the "honeymoon period" isn't just attendance; it's TV numbers, jersey sales, season ticket numbers, social media interaction, not being able to raise ticket prices to keep up with inflation, etc. I work in the sports marketing industry, and I've never heard of a sports team not going through the "honeymoon period" barring an outlying event. 

Do you have evidence of the 10% drop for TFC? I tried looking online and couldn't find anything. I'd be surprised because everything I've read is that they have steadily grown since day one.

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10 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

Your point appears to be that CPL will need to start off with higher than break-even revenue in order to be viable. That may very well be so. But I'm not sure I see the connection between that point and the survey that is the subject of this thread.

All I'm saying is that whatever the level of interest is in a team at launch, expect that number to deteriorate for 4-7 years before steadily up-ticking in the years after (if they survive the drop). If the percentage of MLS fans highly interested in a CPL is 15%, expect 4% to go back to MLS in the honeymoon period, not to gain on MLS in that period. The founding and near closure of MLS in 2001 is a great case study in this.

3 minutes ago, BuzzAndSting said:

Do you have evidence of the 10% drop for TFC? I tried looking online and couldn't find anything. I'd be surprised because everything I've read is that they have steadily grown since day one.

I was just going by the numbers listed on the TFC season Wikipedia pages (20,134 home attendance in 2007, 18,155 home attendance in 2012). I couldn't find more credible numbers anywhere else. Still, attendance is only one metric that can be quite misleading. I can't speak directly to TFC, because I know very little about their operation, but I'm sure I would have heard if they had year-over-year growth since 2007. It's an exceedingly rare occurrence.

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TFC bottomed out in 2012 because they had terrible on field results, treated their fans poorly and were offering no hope at the time.  

It doesn't help late season attendance when you are in your 7th coach in 6 years, lose 9 straight home games and start trading off your good players.  Then you start discounting tickets below season seat rates to attract walk ins.

I remember that's when I didn't renew my season seats.  It was a dark time for TFC.

 

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4 hours ago, dsqpr said:

Personally, I think the hard-core MLS fans on here greatly overestimate the allegiance of the broader MLS fan base in their cities. When Canadian football fans have a real CANADIAN league to support I am sure they will embrace it -- to the detriment of MLS. You can't support two club teams, it just doesn't work.

The key is for CPL to be seen as a viable professional alternative from the outset. If that doesn't happen then all bets are off.

Come on man really you keep saying this , MLS fans in the three Canadian cities will eventually abandon their MLS team to support  their CPL team  and Canada will win the World Cup in by the time I reach 90  which is in about 40 years if I'm lucky or unlucky lol.

Edited by 1996

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32 minutes ago, 1996 said:

Come on man really you keep saying this , MLS fans in the three Canadian cities will eventually abandon their MLS team to support  their CPL team.

16% of those MLS fans taking the survey have said they will do just that -- for a league that doesn't even exist yet! I wonder what the percentage will be when the league actually exists.

34 minutes ago, 1996 said:

and Canada will win the World Cup in by the time I reach 90  which is in about 40 years if I'm lucky or unlucky lol.

If you think that Canada will win the World Cup in the next 40 years then I think you are deluded.

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18 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

16% of those MLS fans taking the survey have said they will do just that -- for a league that doesn't even exist yet! I wonder what the percentage will be when the league actually exists.

If you think that Canada will win the World Cup in the next 40 years then I think you are deluded.

*16% that answered the survey via a link provided to an MLS Supporter's Group forum/twitter feed, overall closer to 27% said they would support a CPL club over their previous MLS club (plus another 26% saying they would support both equally and another 6% who used "other" to fill in a blank).

But also remember that less than 30% of respondents live in a community in reasonable driving distance to an MLS city (including places like Hamilton), so there are plenty of people just saying "Yes, I would support my home team over some MLS team far away from me", which is a little less noteworthy

But again reiterating, there is so much potential bias that the survey should not be taken as anything but the roughest of measures of people *inside the domestic soccer bubble*

Edited by Complete Homer

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52 minutes ago, 1996 said:

Come on man really you keep saying this , MLS fans in the three Canadian cities will eventually abandon their MLS team to support  their CPL team  and Canada will win the World Cup in by the time I reach 90  which is in about 40 years if I'm lucky or unlucky lol.

And here I thought you were on the younger side, given your username

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Lol 

16 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

16% of those MLS fans taking the survey have said they will do just that -- for a league that doesn't even exist yet! I wonder what the percentage will be when the league actually exists.

If you think that Canada will win the World Cup in the next 40 years then I think you are deluded.

Lol exactly , if you think  fans of the Canadian MLS teams will stop following their MLS teams for CPL teams then you are deluded too.

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43 minutes ago, 1996 said:

Lol 

Lol exactly , if you think  fans of the Canadian MLS teams will stop following their MLS teams for CPL teams then you are deluded too.

Canadian MLS fans outside of MLS markets that get a team? Sure seems like a lot will put their money and viewership behind a local CPL team (though many will still follow MLS to an extent)

Canadians in MLS markets? Seems like there is a minority of the "hardcore" that are already interested in doing so. Of those who answered from the GTA (minus Hamilton since that would probably be skewing it unfairly), 16.5% said they would support CPL over MLS (though occasionally support their MLS side) along with about 5% who said that they would prefer CPL and consider their former MLS team a rival...and about 3% that had answered "other" and added statements like "unsure", "whoever signs the most italians", etc

Beyond that, people end up following teams for all sorts of reasons. As long as there is an atmosphere and a small committed fanbase that can act as a nucleation point, I think a CPL team in Toronto would be fine.

Edit: Also noticing I should add another caveat...seems like around half of those who "didn't anticipate a change" if a CPL team entered their market also said that they would buy season tickets to a CPL franchise...probably should have phrased that answer better

Edited by Complete Homer

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6 hours ago, ironcub14 said:

I'll also add quickly that the Toronto/GTA CPL thread is longer than any other city-specific CPL thread in the forum, including even Hamilton's. There's a ton of CPL interest in TO/GTA, for a good reason.

Ok but half of that is arguing about whether it should be called Cronenburgs.

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1 hour ago, Gopherbashi said:

Ok but half of that is arguing about whether it should be called Cronenburgs.

Also on top of that the length of a topic on an internet forum does not indicate in any the strength of a supporter group (not to suggest the Toronto group is not solid - just saying this forum isnt really a good way to judge).

It absolutely is not an indication of broad support for a CPL team in Toronto. I think at this point we have no idea if there is broad support for another professional soccer team in TO,

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Let me weigh in on this 16%+ thinking here too. As complete homer has already said, this is among people that clicked on a link for a CPL fan survey. These people all have their own dreams of what CPL may look like too. When the rubber hits the road maybe Toronto CPL's big signing is Marcus Haber and TFC's big signing is Sergio Aguero. Maybe that reality changes some opinions. Or maybe when the stadium that everyone now can hope that it will be near them ends up being in Brampton/Vaughan/Scarborough/somewhere that is considerable harder to get to for you than BMO field.

Also, and I shouldn't need to say this, INTERNET POLLS ARE NOT 100% ACCURATE!!!

No offence to the survey, it's good work that is being done and I took the survey and am interested in the results. But as the man who is running the survey knows, this is just rough numbers that should be taken with grains of salt for curiosity purposes only.

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Yeah, I agree with Kent.  Since there are so many unknowns to the CPL right now, everyone gets to make up their own desires for what the league will look like and then answer the survey based on that.  Furthermore, people tend to answer surveys based on who they want to be rather than who they are.  That's not a soccer fan thing, that's just a human nature thing.

The question that still remains is, will the average person in Toronto be more willing to support a lower quality team in a Canadian league over a significantly higher quality team MLS?  Will the average person care about the fact that the league is Canadian?  As much as some of us will support the CPL simply because of that Canadian storyline, how long will that last with the average fan?

Smaller markets have no other options.  If you want to watch professional soccer in Winnipeg, Hamilton or Halifax you're going to have one option.  But when faced with a massive disparity in talent between an MLS team and a CPL team, will most people from Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver care about the smaller team?

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3 hours ago, 1996 said:

Lol 

Lol exactly , if you think  fans of the Canadian MLS teams will stop following their MLS teams for CPL teams then you are deluded too.

Maybe if you tattoo "The survey indicates otherwise" backwards on your forehead then after enough mornings in front of the mirror you will finally get it. Honestly, it is like trying to teach long division to a monkey.

Obviously the survey doesn't prove anything concrete. I daresay even the monkey would get that. But there were certainly SOME respondents (MORE THAN ZERO) who categorically stated they would drop MLS for CPL. That at the very least INDICATES A TENDENCY. So it is hardly a delusion to think that will happen!!

Give year head a shake.

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9 hours ago, dsqpr said:

Obviously the survey doesn't prove anything concrete. I daresay even the monkey would get that. But there were certainly SOME respondents (MORE THAN ZERO) who categorically stated they would drop MLS for CPL. That at the very least INDICATES A TENDENCY. So it is hardly a delusion to think that will happen!!

If we're speaking in simply binary terms then yes, I believe at least some people will stop following MLS in order to start following CPL.  But how many people do remains to be seen.

Unfortunately without seeing all the data in front of us it's hard to truly extrapolate anything.  We know that currently 16.5% of people who click on the survey from MLS forums said they would switch from primarily supporting MLS to primarily supporting CPL.  However, how many people took the survey?  What's our sample size?

Furthermore, will that 16.5% remain once we get more details of what CPL looks like?  What level of play is that 16.5% expecting out of the CPL?  If they're expecting the quality to rival MLS, then it would make sense why they might be willing to switch support to CPL.  What percent of that 16.5% indicated that quality of on-field play is either "of high importance" or "deal breaker"?

I don't expect that we're going to see 16.5% of TFC fans switch their loyalty to a Toronto-based CPL team.  The average TFC fan probably doesn't care about what league TFC is playing in, they just want to see a quality game.  That's not a dig at TFC, the average fan of any team is going to care significantly less than the hardcore supporters.  The current fan survey circulating is only collecting data from the most hardcore CPL supporters.  It's not indicative of how the general sporting public will feel about MLS and CPL.

However, as you pointed out the survey has indicated that a non-zero number of people will be willing to switch their support.  While this percentage will likely drop over the next year and a half, there will still be at least some people willing to drop MLS for CPL.

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8 hours ago, dsqpr said:

Maybe if you tattoo "The survey indicates otherwise" backwards on your forehead then after enough mornings in front of the mirror you will finally get it. Honestly, it is like trying to teach long division to a monkey.

Obviously the survey doesn't prove anything concrete. I daresay even the monkey would get that. But there were certainly SOME respondents (MORE THAN ZERO) who categorically stated they would drop MLS for CPL. That at the very least INDICATES A TENDENCY. So it is hardly a delusion to think that will happen!!

Give year head a shake.

Like I've said previously the only way Canadian teams join the CPL or Canadian fans of MLS Canadian teams stop  following their MLS teams is if the MLS folds or really drops in level of play  and if the CPL eventually overtakes the MLS in player salaries where the better players are playing in the CPL.  Like I said previously in Scotland teams like Celtic and Rangers would kill to play in the EPL if it was possible,not just because it's a higher level league but also because of being able to play against the bigger teams from the big English cities, rather than play against the small Scottish cities over and over again. Toronto casual sports fans don't get that excited about playing the Hamilton's and the Winnipeg's of the world, but play an LA or a New York and win a championship in a North American League has more meaning to Toronto sports fans, it's just the way it is. Of course if your from Winnipeg, Hamilton Edmonton and so on beating up on the big Canadian cities like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver is exciting and winning a Canadian league championship is great but to Toronto fans we want to beat up on the Americans it's more meaningful than winning a Canadian league championship, just look at last years MLS Cup final game , tickets sold out in seconds. The Voyageurs Cup TFC have one so many but it hardly creates any excitement in the city and tickets even to finals are ever sold out, only the hard core have any real interest. So ya TFC fans will definitely start supporting a CPL team over their MLS one , sorry ain't happening anytime soon sorry bud.

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4 hours ago, 1996 said:

Like I've said previously the only way Canadian teams join the CPL or Canadian fans of MLS Canadian teams stop  following their MLS teams is if the MLS folds or really drops in level of play  and if the CPL eventually overtakes the MLS in player salaries where the better players are playing in the CPL.  Like I said previously in Scotland teams like Celtic and Rangers would kill to play in the EPL if it was possible,not just because it's a higher level league but also because of being able to play against the bigger teams from the big English cities, rather than play against the small Scottish cities over and over again. Toronto casual sports fans don't get that excited about playing the Hamilton's and the Winnipeg's of the world, but play an LA or a New York and win a championship in a North American League has more meaning to Toronto sports fans, it's just the way it is. Of course if your from Winnipeg, Hamilton Edmonton and so on beating up on the big Canadian cities like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver is exciting and winning a Canadian league championship is great but to Toronto fans we want to beat up on the Americans it's more meaningful than winning a Canadian league championship, just look at last years MLS Cup final game , tickets sold out in seconds. The Voyageurs Cup TFC have one so many but it hardly creates any excitement in the city and tickets even to finals are ever sold out, only the hard core have any real interest. So ya TFC fans will definitely start supporting a CPL team over their MLS one , sorry ain't happening anytime soon sorry bud.

Jesus dude you need remedial reading lessons...read what he wrote before you comment again with the same drivel.

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19 hours ago, Kent said:

Let me weigh in on this 16%+ thinking here too. As complete homer has already said, this is among people that clicked on a link for a CPL fan survey. These people all have their own dreams of what CPL may look like too. When the rubber hits the road maybe Toronto CPL's big signing is Marcus Haber and TFC's big signing is Sergio Aguero. Maybe that reality changes some opinions. Or maybe when the stadium that everyone now can hope that it will be near them ends up being in Brampton/Vaughan/Scarborough/somewhere that is considerable harder to get to for you than BMO field.

Also, and I shouldn't need to say this, INTERNET POLLS ARE NOT 100% ACCURATE!!!

No offence to the survey, it's good work that is being done and I took the survey and am interested in the results. But as the man who is running the survey knows, this is just rough numbers that should be taken with grains of salt for curiosity purposes only.

Agree overall, though I'd say it's more people with an interest in domestic soccer in some capacity.. There's plenty of people answering from the MLS SGs just to say that they aren't interested/are low-key hostile to the idea

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