GuillermoDelQuarto Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 hours ago, Kent said: While we are speculating, regarding people talking about expansion fees for Ottawa using USL as a stop-gap measure before going to CPL. It might be possible that USL would waive expansion fees and as a result, cancellation fees (or whatever it's called when you leave the league) if Ottawa is just planning on coming for a year or two and then going to the CPL. USL might be fine with just accepting the damage it does to NASL. I agree with people that the Fury's statement seems to add credence to the rumour by not stating they will be staying in NASL. Of course that doesn't at all mean that CPL would be the final landing spot for them, but that would be fantastic if it is. Or maybe it's just this? Perhaps I'm ignorant, but does USL have that much of a vendetta towards NASL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuillermoDelQuarto Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 hours ago, Complete Homer said: What I'm saying is that I'm not even big on smaller teams coming in, unless you mean Winnipeg, etc as smaller teams. If there is ever a team in Victoria, I see that as a distant future where the league has proven stable. But we're getting off topic, I just wanted to point out that Ottawa leaving isn't some kind of evidence that CPL would be unsustainable If anything it's proof that NASL is not overly stable and that CPL wouldn't need a whole lot to be comparable. Edit: sorry, really should have read everything before deciding to comment. apologize for the spam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CDNFootballer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Gopherbashi said: As was mentioned in relation to OFFC's press release, what the Citizen's article doesn't say is far more important than what it does say. Sure, the team "isn't going anywhere and will be back in 2017", but back in the NASL or simply back on the field? Isn't going to another city, isn't going to disappear, or isn't going to another league? The only detail really presented is that the team is losing $2m a year and needs another 1500 fans/game to break even, which seems like the perfect setup to "We have a fondness for soccer though we're hemorrhaging money, but the team will still be here, so come out and watch and pay no attention to the behind-the-scenes stuff like what league we're in." It could be read different ways - they do say they're a "member of the NASL in good standing", which I'm not sure they necessarily would be considered so if they've exerciced the exit clause giving notice that they will leave the league at seasons end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopherbashi Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, CDNFootballer said: It could be read different ways - they do say they're a "member of the NASL in good standing", which I'm not sure they necessarily would be considered so if they've exerciced the exit clause giving notice that they will leave the league at seasons end. I read it to mean that "We're not getting kicked out because we're behind on league dues" but that whole part seemed unnecessarily verbose and vague to me so I really have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Gopherbashi said: As was mentioned in relation to OFFC's press release, what the Citizen's article doesn't say is far more important than what it does say. Sure, the team "isn't going anywhere and will be back in 2017", but back in the NASL or simply back on the field? Isn't going to another city, isn't going to disappear, or isn't going to another league? The only detail really presented is that the team is losing $2m a year and needs another 1500 fans/game to break even, which seems like the perfect setup to "We have a fondness for soccer though we're hemorrhaging money, but the team will still be here, so come out and watch and pay no attention to the behind-the-scenes stuff like what league we're in." Honestly, only 1500 fans a game away from breaking even is probably pretty damn good. Considering that they are averaging around 15% increase in attendance each year. Keep that up they'll be breaking even halfway through 2018 However, I'm pretty skeptical of those numbers. How are they managing to lose 2 million a year, and if they are, how would 1500/game makes up that difference? $2,000,000 from 1500 fans over 14 home games would come out to out to $95/fan/game in ticket pricing, merchandise profit, etc. That seems extremely excessive, and implies that their current 5800 fans/game generates almost 8 million in revenue, and the break-even point would be about ten million in revenue (assuming all revenue came from tickets sales, which it clearly doesn't, so ten million would actually be an underestimate). That's ridiculous. Given an average salary of 40k (which apparently is pretty high for NASL average salary), that works out to $1,120,000 spent on player salaries for a 28 man roster, and there is no way player salaries are only about one tenth of the team's expenditure. Either I am missing something here, there is some "hollywood accounting" going on here, or the reporter is pulling numbers out of their ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 55 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said: I read it to mean that "We're not getting kicked out because we're behind on league dues" but that whole part seemed unnecessarily verbose and vague to me so I really have no clue. I also wonder if NASL has recently adopted some sort of agreement to not publicly discuss exits since several high profile departures. OKC, Jacksonville, and now Ottawa have all been heavily rumoured to be in their last NASL season but nothing official outside of Ottawa's very obvious "denial" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamboAl Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The Fury give away a lot of tickets to kids hoping that they and their parents will spend on concessions. So when an attendance of 6,000 for example is announced, there's probably only 4,500 with ticket revenue. So yes, perhaps an average attendance of closer to 7,500 or 8,000 would be needed to truly break even. With that in mind, how long before the owners of FC Edmonton call it a day because I know they are losing quite a bit of money each season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 11 minutes ago, JamboAl said: The Fury give away a lot of tickets to kids hoping that they and their parents will spend on concessions. So when an attendance of 6,000 for example is announced, there's probably only 4,500 with ticket revenue. So yes, perhaps an average attendance of closer to 7,500 or 8,000 would be needed to truly break even. With that in mind, how long before the owners of FC Edmonton call it a day because I know they are losing quite a bit of money each season? Fair point. Even still, if they truly need to generate another 2 million a year, they need to do a lot more than attract an extra 1500 a game, because that still would mean extracting over $1300 from each of those, which would be about $1000 in merch and concessions profits, assuming they were season ticket holders in the most expensive seats. That still isn't in the realm of possibility Either the article is really low balling how many more fans they need, or there's some funny accounting going on. It would make a lot more sense if they had lost 2 million so far, as a 1500-2000 fan deficit works out to about $600 000 per year, which would bring them close to 2 million in losses over three seasons. 600k in losses each year also makes a lot more sense with the crude estimations I've seen of NASL operating costs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackTheBlizzard Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The Ottawa Citizen article adds nothing new beyond the losing $2 million a year angle, which should be no major surprise given the youth soccer giveaways used to generate crowds. Suspect the NASL to USL move would be about keeping expenditures down given the present day NASL appear to be making the same mistake the original one did by having costs spiral out of control due to excessive expenditures by a couple of franchises. Salary caps and some level of central league control to avoid wage spirals developing is the better business model, so the dreams of D1 that started after the Cosmos re-emerged always looked a bit far-fetched. Edit: A Cosmos fan is also claiming to have heard the Fury to USL rumour a month ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mianjo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 On a thread on another site they say There is now rumors Carolina and Indy may jump to the Usl Pro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackTheBlizzard Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 hours ago, Complete Homer said: Fair point. Even still, if they truly need to generate another 2 million a year, they need to do a lot more than attract an extra 1500 a game... My guess would be that the announced attendance of around 5500 is 1500 below break even and the discrepancy in the numbers is because the paid attendance is significantly lower than that, because they are giving away lots of tickets to youth clubs almost for free. They will have some savings relative to Edmonton by being part of a wider sports group, so this is broadly in line with the 9000 average crowd number that was mentioned as break even in an Edmonton context. The main difference between the two cities is that paid attendance is probably a lot closer to the announced numbers in an Edmonton context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ted Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 16 hours ago, CDNFootballer said: There is no lawsuit, only a letter of protest to the suggested changing of the D1 standards that USSF didn't go ahead and approve. That article was also a rehashing of old info from earlier in the year making it look like it just occured. OK, talk of a lawsuit. They are still dancing around with preliminaries before actually filing. Doesn't change my point: the USSF has no love for NASL and has no incentive to cut them any slack or grant any waivers to the requirements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 https://mobile.twitter.com/MnNiceFC/status/771704864715837441 Fort Lauderdale behind on playing their players OKC minority owner trying to sell their half of the turf (seriously) and rumoured to be folding Jacksonville drawing under 500 Minnesota jettisoning for MLS Ottawa jettisoning for USL Miami and New York pretending they can't destroy their league's economy with massive transfers I'm doubtful the league survives this shit storm. Good on Ottawa for getting out, the league could lose a third of their franchises in the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levi Oakey Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 What happened in Jacksonville? I remember opening night every talking about how great attendance was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedinathan Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Complete Homer said: https://mobile.twitter.com/MnNiceFC/status/771704864715837441 Fort Lauderdale behind on playing their players OKC minority owner trying to sell their half of the turf (seriously) and rumoured to be folding Jacksonville drawing under 500 Minnesota jettisoning for MLS Ottawa jettisoning for USL Miami and New York pretending they can't destroy their league's economy with massive transfers I'm doubtful the league survives this shit storm. Good on Ottawa for getting out, the league could lose a third of their franchises in the near future Might want to check the Jacksonville. It was Fort Lauderdale that drew under 500. To my knowledge, Jax is doing absolutely fine. OKC had the minority owner BUY the turf, hear that the majority owner was consider selling it from under him, then removed half of it to protect his investment. Lack of communication is the issue there. Majority owner had made statements about "trimming the sails". Lets be honest. You've pointed out several rumours and ongoing fan beliefs here. Lets get things straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 21 minutes ago, jedinathan said: Might want to check the Jacksonville. It was Fort Lauderdale that drew under 500. To my knowledge, Jax is doing absolutely fine. OKC had the minority owner BUY the turf, hear that the majority owner was consider selling it from under him, then removed half of it to protect his investment. Lack of communication is the issue there. Majority owner had made statements about "trimming the sails". Lets be honest. You've pointed out several rumours and ongoing fan beliefs here. Lets get things straight. That's fair. Still, OKC has had reports about folding long before, as have Fort Lauderdale, and with Ottawa and Minnesota gone that is a huge portion of the league likely leaving. The few stable franchises could easily follow Ottawa and the whole thing is in rubble. What happens if Indy 11 leaves? What is the last straw before the owners bolt in panic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuillermoDelQuarto Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 The only potential bright side here is that perhaps it'll convince Fath that CPL is the more stable option(obviously if indeed all the rumours are true). Not a lot that looks good for NASL these days, although maybe for the best. The ghosts of the old NASL still haunt the current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedinathan Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 So here's what I've heard. Rumors are considered anything about the club closing, or considering closing. Edmonton: Stable, however perception is that Fath needs to see some support soon to keep putting money in. Ottawa: Stable, rumored to be leaving the NASL. Destination unsure, but CPL and USL have been mentioned Minnesota: MLS in 2017 New York: Stable, no rumors Tampa Bay: Stable, no rumors Miami FC: Stable, no rumors Jacksonville: Stable, no rumors Fort Lauderdale: Several occurrences of players/vendors not being paid. Significantly lower attendance in 2016. No folding confirmed rumors, only speculation. Carolina: Stable, no rumors Indiana: Stable, no rumors Puerto Rico: Stable, no rumors Rayo OKC: Unstable. Communication issues within ownership. Massive turnover midseason. No news of folding, other than perception from fans, as well as talk of majority owners looking to sell shares. **JOINING 2017** San Francisco: Stable, no rumors. Hired MDS as first head coach. I hear what you're saying in this. But I think that there are some SERIOUS jumps being made in logic here. You have a very solid replacement for Minnesota coming in for 2017, and Chicago is still going in their expansion push. For numbers, you have 7/12 clubs with no folding or movement rumors going on. One with a solid rumor (Ottawa), two with fan driven rumors (Fort Lauderdale and Rayo OKC). Leaves Edmonton, who (IMO, and I like to think I have some insight into that particular club) is pretty solid. Faths have no interest in moving at this time. This isn't a sky is falling situation. There are FOR SURE issues in the league. However, I don't think that its going to be folding in the next several months, unless more massive cracks are uncovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuillermoDelQuarto Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 ^^ yea seems like a pretty solid summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopherbashi Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 7/12 clubs with no folding or moving rumours is still huge, considering you could bet your bottom dollar that no sensible investor is going to pay an expansion fee to a league that most likely won't have enough teams to be sanctioned next year. That's the effect of the uncertainty that will kill the league, and it's already too far gone to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedinathan Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 hours ago, Gopherbashi said: 7/12 clubs with no folding or moving rumours is still huge, considering you could bet your bottom dollar that no sensible investor is going to pay an expansion fee to a league that most likely won't have enough teams to be sanctioned next year. That's the effect of the uncertainty that will kill the league, and it's already too far gone to stop. Again, this is only focusing on certain points. 7/12 are solid. 8/12 are pretty much locks for 2017 (adding in Edmonton). 9/12 with expansion. 11/12 with nothing but supporters saying "eh, maybe you should reexamine things" (Rayo OKC and Fort Lauderdale). Then you add in San Fran. So please, show me where they won't get sanctioned. Especially considering the league itself is financially aware enough to float a club or two for a season (done in Atlanta, not to mention the bonds each owner had to put down at the start of each season). so much sensationalism. Even Rayo OKC had opinions become facts become quotes a few weeks ago. The pure facts don't lend to their closing their doors. They just simply don't show a positive club. For the record, I'm hardly a NASL fanboy.... But there's so much speculation being laid down as fact in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackTheBlizzard Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 This blog provides a good summary of where things stand for the NASL at the moment: http://fiftyfive.one/2016/09/the-damage-has-been-done/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackTheBlizzard Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Latest from the guy the guy that broke the rumour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dub Narcotic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Getting excited about USL expansion possibilities now that the possible Ottawa move will shake things loose. Could easily have NW and NE divisions with a plurality of Canadian representation and lots of derbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackTheBlizzard Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Hamilton is the obvious one in the short term given the wording of the recent survey of potential fans there was phrased in a way that suggested a launch of a single franchise in a North American context. Hopefully Edmonton will hang in there too, if the NASL goes into a death spiral over the next few months. If USL is going to be D2 from next year onwards in USSF terms that means metro areas of 750,000 and up is the norm, and that basically means Calgary, Winnipeg and Quebec City as the other possibilities long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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