Derosario23 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Let's face it we need to win our next 3 games and get 10 points or it is over.. Also we need Honduras to loose at least 2 games and tie the other to have the slightest chance of squeaking by? Can it be done since Honduras has 6 points now! Should we throw in the towel or fight!. We can beat Honduras and Jamaica in their house since we stood up to Mexico.. The question is does Dale Mitchell have the competence and knowledge to make the right decisions?... Without Dero and Serioux can we beat Honduras and Mexico? I am very worried! Your thoughts guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Better than most are making them out to be, as most are saying it's zilch. It will all come down to the next game. We beat Honduras in Honduras, a place we were we have 1 win, 1 suspicious loss and two suspiscous ties against them, we are two points back of them with two games to go, two games likely against teams that will be less motivated (given that one will already be in and the other will already be out). The tricky thing will be that we'll need help from Jamaica and hope that they can get at least a draw at home against Honduras, who let's not forget, have a reputation for choking worse that we do. Let's hope it's a reputation well earned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bertuzzi44 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Very low. If this was poker, I'd say it's Aces versus Kings preflop...and we're holding the Kings:( First we need to beat Honduras. If we lose to Honduras next game we are mathematically eliminated. If we win that game, and then tie Mexico and beat Jamaica, then we need Honduras to tie Jamaica and lose to Mexico. This will not likely happen, so what Canada really needs is a win against Mexico in Edmonton. Then, Honduras can beat Jamaica and tie Mexico and we could still get in on goal difference. The bottom line, however, is that our fate is no longer in our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FootieFool Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 squizz posted this scenario in another thread. It gives me hope whenever I read it. Hard, but not impossible results. And by Matchday 5 Mexico will probably be thru and Sven might send some more fringe players to have a look at, giving us the opportunity in Edmonton. Matchday 4: Canada def. Honduras Mexico def. Jamaica Standings: Mexico 12 - Honduras 6 - Canada 4 - Jamaica 1 Matchday 5: Canada - Mexico draw Honduras - Jamaica draw Standings: Mexico 13 - Honduras 7 - Canada 5 - Jamaica 2 Matchday 6: Canada def. Jamaica Honduras - Mexico draw Standings: Mexico 14 - Honduras 8 - Canada 8 - Jamaica 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loyola Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 If we are to beat Honduras in October, the best case scenario is Jamaica getting a surprise win over Mexico. The group would be Mexico 9 Honduras 6 Canada 4 Jamaica 4 Then Jamaica still in the hunt get a result against Honduras, either a win or a tie. We need to beat Mexico. Mexico 9 Honduras 7 Canada 7 Jamaica 5 This situation would be perfect for the last day IMO. What we don't need is Honduras playing Jamaica and Mexico in their last 2 games against an eliminated side and an already qualified one. That's the worst case scenario for us. The problem with this scenario is that I can't imagine Mexico loosing 2 games in a row against us and Jamaica...but I've seen crazier things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Jamaica will not be eliminated on MD5 if we win in Honduras. If we can win in Honduras and at home to Mexico, while Jamaica beats Honduras in Kingston then we go in to the last matchday up a point (7 vs. 6) on Honduras. At that point we'd hope Honduras loses or draws at home to Mexico and then we'd only need a draw to advance. Is this likely? Nope. Can it happen? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VPjr Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 I love your guys optimism. that's why I keep coming back to the board on a day as miserable as this. The realist in me says we're done. but as that great philosopher (Yogi Berra, Esq) once said, "its not over 'till its over". lets stay hopeful and pray for a new coach to lead them to battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loyola Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 quote:Originally posted by VPjr I love your guys optimism. that's why I keep coming back to the board on a day as miserable as this. The realist in me says we're done. but as that great philosopher (Yogi Berra, Esq) once said, "its not over 'till its over". lets stay hopeful and pray for a new coach to lead them to battle. I don't know if you included me in the optimist category but I want a mentionned that for the record I think we're done for this round. But I feel like our players have the obligation and responsability to prove us wrong and keep fighting to beat Honduras away. They have no rights to stop playing or not showing until November 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VPjr Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 quote:Originally posted by loyola But I feel like our players have the obligation and responsability to prove us wrong and keep fighting to beat Honduras away. They have no rights to stop playing or not showing until November 19th. you are right...the players can't quit. with a new coach, they probably wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loyola Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 quote:Originally posted by VPjr you are right...the players can't quit. with a new coach, they probably wont. Even if Mitchell is still in place I wouldn't accept them quitting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 I wonder how much a $20 bet on canada qualifying would get you now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Ed Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Get you $20 poorer. I'll bet a $100 on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treppy Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 quote:Originally posted by FootieFool squizz posted this scenario in another thread. It gives me hope whenever I read it. Hard, but not impossible results. And by Matchday 5 Mexico will probably be thru and Sven might send some more fringe players to have a look at, giving us the opportunity in Edmonton. Matchday 4: Canada def. Honduras Mexico def. Jamaica Standings: Mexico 12 - Honduras 6 - Canada 4 - Jamaica 1 Matchday 5: Canada - Mexico draw Honduras - Jamaica draw Standings: Mexico 13 - Honduras 7 - Canada 5 - Jamaica 2 Matchday 6: Canada def. Jamaica Honduras - Mexico draw Standings: Mexico 14 - Honduras 8 - Canada 8 - Jamaica 2 What are our chances? Let's do a rough mathematical analysis of the of the chances that ALL of the above six results will happen. On Matchday 4, let's assume Canada has a 50% chance of beating Honduras, and that Mexico has an 80% chance of beating Jamica. On Matchday 5, let's assume that Canada has a 50% chance of drawing (or beating) Mexico, and that there is a 30% chance of a Honduras-Jamaica draw (or of Jamica winning). On Matchday 6, let's assume that Canada has a 50% of beating Jamaica, and that Mexico has a 50% chance of drawing (or beating) Honduras. The chance that ALL six of these events will happen is: (0.5)(0.8)(0.5)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.015 or 1.5 percent. If you don't like my assumptions, put in your own percentages, and do the math. Much as I'd like to think otherwise, we're done like dinner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 5 to 1 odds, Ed? I didn't realize you were that optimistic about our chances. quote:Originally posted by Ed Get you $20 poorer. I'll bet a $100 on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetajr Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 With Mitchell - 0% With HART - 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
closetboostie Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 quote:Originally posted by Ed Get you $20 poorer. I'll bet a $100 on that. That is freakin hilarious. I tell you this; I don't think they are going to make it and I've taken a lot of abuse already for even watching the games because "Canada sucks" etc , etc. But they are not out of it because head to head matches are a beautiful thing. We get three points in matchday 4, Honduras get none and everything changes. As fans, we can afford to look ahead and crunch the numbers and worry about the percentages. The beautiful thing is, the scenarios are independent of one other. When we play on the 11th its just a question of three points up for grabs and then the standings are juggled. Everyone takes a breath and there are three days before we play an already qualified team in Edmonton. Nothing worth having is ever easy to get. Won't it be worth it! ps Ed I'm not being sarcastic in any way, I laughed out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Where's sstackho to put an actuarial stamp on our odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FootieFool Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 quote:Originally posted by Treppy What are our chances? Let's do a rough mathematical analysis of the of the chances that ALL of the above six results will happen. On Matchday 4, let's assume Canada has a 50% chance of beating Honduras, and that Mexico has an 80% chance of beating Jamica. On Matchday 5, let's assume that Canada has a 50% chance of drawing (or beating) Mexico, and that there is a 30% chance of a Honduras-Jamaica draw (or of Jamica winning). On Matchday 6, let's assume that Canada has a 50% of beating Jamaica, and that Mexico has a 50% chance of drawing (or beating) Honduras. The chance that ALL six of these events will happen is: (0.5)(0.8)(0.5)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.015 or 1.5 percent. If you don't like my assumptions, put in your own percentages, and do the math. Much as I'd like to think otherwise, we're done like dinner! Yes, the odds are quite slim that all those games will work out with those results. Canada could beat Mexico and Jamaica could beat Honduras on Gameday 5. The point being - we still gotta believe. Until the math fails us, we are still in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squizz1402635577 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 An awful lot of people on this board seem to be taking some kind of weird satisfaction from authoritatively declaring that this qualifying campaign is over. Why? What is that accomplishing? Yeah, the odds are pretty damn slim right now, but the team is still alive. Are people just waiting for the team to be eliminated so they can move onto something else? Won't we all be cheering our lungs out for the boys no matter what happens? We call ourselves "Canadian soccer supporters" - but if we're not supporting this team (even if things look grim) then what the hell are we doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FootieFool Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 ^^^^^ Damn right! You go, squizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rodfern2007 Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Slim to none. But then I knew this would be the case long before the campaign even started. 2014 then. And even then I have my doubts about that one as well. It's going to take us a long time before we are on even keel with the rest of the region (ie CONCACAF). Right now we are simply not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianinMexico Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Hey I may be crazy, but is it possible that losing was better than tying in Mexico? I mean, obviously it would have been awesome to win (the best case scenario), but tying would have gave Mexico 7 points. They would go on to more than likely beat Jamaica and consequently have 10 points. They still wouldn't be secured a spot and would field their A team against Canada in Canada and Canada would most likely lose or at the very best get a tie. That would give Canada 1 or 2 points out of a possible 6 that they could have taken from Mexico. Now, since Canada lost, Mexico has 9 points. Since Mexico will most likely win in Jamaica, they will have 12 points and be secured a spot in the next round meaning they will most likely field their "B" team against Canada in Canada. This gives Canada a legitimate shot at getting the 3 points, as opposed to the more than likely 1 or 2 points had it happened the other way. I know this may sound a little bit crazy, and I'm just trying to be optimistic, but I think it makes a little bit of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snake Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 quote:Originally posted by CanadianinMexico Hey I may be crazy, but is it possible that losing was better than tying in Mexico? I mean, obviously it would have been awesome to win (the best case scenario), but tying would have gave Mexico 7 points. They would go on to more than likely beat Jamaica and consequently have 10 points. They still wouldn't be secured a spot and would field their A team against Canada in Canada and Canada would most likely lose or at the very best get a tie. That would give Canada 1 or 2 points out of a possible 6 that they could have taken from Mexico. Now, since Canada lost, Mexico has 9 points. Since Mexico will most likely win in Jamaica, they will have 12 points and be secured a spot in the next round meaning they will most likely field their "B" team against Canada in Canada. This gives Canada a legitimate shot at getting the 3 points, as opposed to the more than likely 1 or 2 points had it happened the other way. I know this may sound a little bit crazy, and I'm just trying to be optimistic, but I think it makes a little bit of sense. thank you .you have just given me hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
italianboy Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 quote:Originally posted by CanadianinMexico Hey I may be crazy, but is it possible that losing was better than tying in Mexico? I mean, obviously it would have been awesome to win (the best case scenario), but tying would have gave Mexico 7 points. They would go on to more than likely beat Jamaica and consequently have 10 points. They still wouldn't be secured a spot and would field their A team against Canada in Canada and Canada would most likely lose or at the very best get a tie. That would give Canada 1 or 2 points out of a possible 6 that they could have taken from Mexico. Now, since Canada lost, Mexico has 9 points. Since Mexico will most likely win in Jamaica, they will have 12 points and be secured a spot in the next round meaning they will most likely field their "B" team against Canada in Canada. This gives Canada a legitimate shot at getting the 3 points, as opposed to the more than likely 1 or 2 points had it happened the other way. I know this may sound a little bit crazy, and I'm just trying to be optimistic, but I think it makes a little bit of sense. i like that logic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 quote:Originally posted by CanadianinMexico Hey I may be crazy, but is it possible that losing was better than tying in Mexico? I mean, obviously it would have been awesome to win (the best case scenario), but tying would have gave Mexico 7 points. They would go on to more than likely beat Jamaica and consequently have 10 points. They still wouldn't be secured a spot and would field their A team against Canada in Canada and Canada would most likely lose or at the very best get a tie. That would give Canada 1 or 2 points out of a possible 6 that they could have taken from Mexico. Now, since Canada lost, Mexico has 9 points. Since Mexico will most likely win in Jamaica, they will have 12 points and be secured a spot in the next round meaning they will most likely field their "B" team against Canada in Canada. This gives Canada a legitimate shot at getting the 3 points, as opposed to the more than likely 1 or 2 points had it happened the other way. I know this may sound a little bit crazy, and I'm just trying to be optimistic, but I think it makes a little bit of sense. Don't want to be negative. But Mexico will call a 20ish man squad. With probably 3 keepers. So even if they do play a weakened team it will still be a very strong team with lots of quality players and some starters. These second choice players will also have more to play for in Canada (a spot on the starting XI in later matches)than a full team would play. Sorry - I'm trying to be positive too, just finding it very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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